The Great College Football Schism is Coming

[FishDuck Article]

The great college football schism is coming, and it will fracture college football in a way that will shake the very sport and institution of college athletics to its foundation. This is something that isn’t going to happen overnight and it will take years to develop — probably anywhere between five to 15 years. It will leave the sport divided ...

 

The Great College Football Schism is Coming

FISHDUCK.COM

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The great college football schism is coming, and it will fracture college football in a way that will shake the very sport and institution of college...

[Pennsylvania Duck]

I've always wanted my Ducks to play with/against the best. This article has made me stop and think about that choice. Do I really want to see "professional" players on a Saturday afternoon?...No I don't. Do I want to support the student-athlete?...Yes I do. I believe I will always follow my Ducks, but it might be with less interest as "professionals." This is a terrible choice to have to make as I like the conference as is.

 

Great article, David. I like articles that make me stop and think about my choices.

Edited August 2, 2022 by Pennsylvania Duck

[Flyin Vee]

It’s looking more and more that SMU was just ahead of the times when the NCAA banned SMU football n 1987 for pay for play,

[lownslowav8r]

Another question is what happens to the kids who go semi-pro and don’t make the NFL? Minimal or no education and their playing days are done. Our current system already fails many players, the new one will fail more. 

[GODUCKS15]

On 8/2/2022 at 7:42 AM, lownslowav8r said:

Another question is what happens to the kids who go semi-pro and don’t make the NFL? Minimal or no education and their playing days are done. Our current system already fails many players, the new one will fail more. 

Not sure ESPN or Fox gives a rats arse about that. Any school not currently in the BG1 or SEC is caught between a rock and a hard place. Damned if you damned if you don't.

Anyway you look at it, David Marsh paints a bleak look into the future of college football. 

[Drake]

A lot of uncertainty about the future impact that NIL $$$$ will have on college sports. I wonder how long donors will throw millions of dollars at a team and still not be able to hoist the big trophy at the end of the season?
 

NIL hasn’t really changed the number of teams with a legit shot at winning the CFP. Before NIL there were maybe 5 to 6 teams with a legit shot, after NIL there are 5 to 6 teams with that same legit shot. It is not news that Oregon State will not win the CFP this year. 

TV rights revenues generated by the conferences will determine the long term fate of what happens to many college sports. Oregon and Oregon State could very well both be impacted negatively.

We may very well see colleges being forced to eliminate some sports because of the economics of fielding men’s and women’s sports (title IX).  

[The Kamikaze Kid]

Have any of these movers and shakers even considered the dangers of going down the semi pro path? There is a magic to college sports that pro sports can not capture. Currently, game day across the nation is a day of celebration and excitement. It's a community event that brings people together. I don't think that element of atmosphere will continue in the semi pro era.

 

As of now, the top 30-40 teams in the country sit atop the conferences year after year getting to feel like big dogs all over the country. Every one of them get to start out the season feeling like this year will be the year! In the semi pro model, one of two things will happen, the cream will continue to rise to the top ( Ohio St, Alabama) or a draft type system cools everybody's jets with parody.

 

If the same four teams have the only real chance of winning the championship every year, how do the other semi pro teams feel about that? How excited will the Texas fan base be after ten seasons of going 5-7? With a draft bringing parody, how excited does the semi pro fan base feel with most teams hovering around 5-7, 6-6, and 7-5?

 

No matter what semi pro teams do, they will never compete with the real deal of the NFL. Is leaving the college atmosphere behind to simply become a AAA baseball team really a step in the right direction? I use to be a die hard UO basketball fan but recently with all of the one and done five stars changing the face of the team every year, I've lost a lot of the zeal I used to have. I feel the semi pro direction of football will do the same thing for that sport.

[lownslowav8r]

I’m with those who don’t want to watch semi pro football. It’s the rivalries and atmosphere that makes college football fun. 

[McDuck]

Add another name to the "no on semi-pro" list.  I'm like The Kamikazi Kid, a rabid fan of basketball as it once was.  Now I seldom pay attention as I have no connection to the names on the Oregon jerseys.  Why bother, they will all be different next year.  Thanks in large part to "Trader Bob" Whitsitt I lost all interest in the Trailblazers and haven't watched a minute of an NBA game in a couple decades.

 

College football was all I had left and that is on life support.  Sad.

[Washington Waddler]

     Perceptive analysis David. However - to take it one step further - I’m not sure a semi-pro format would leave the NFL on the outside for long.

 

     A breach of this magnitude of college tradition would most likely tumble more dominoes including direct involvement by the pros; with a possible scenario (borrowed from MLB) where individual pro clubs (Miami Dolphins) directly sponsor  play-for-pay teams (Miami Hurricanes).
 

     In some way, the pros would eventually become directly involved. They would just have to much at stake.

 

 

[Pac10again]

On 8/2/2022 at 7:42 AM, lownslowav8r said:

Another question is what happens to the kids who go semi-pro and don’t make the NFL? Minimal or no education and their playing days are done. Our current system already fails many players, the new one will fail more. 

I disagree the players have an opportunity at a great education for free.  If they choose to not take advantage of that they failed themselves. 

[David Marsh]

On 8/2/2022 at 7:42 AM, lownslowav8r said:

Another question is what happens to the kids who go semi-pro and don’t make the NFL? Minimal or no education and their playing days are done. Our current system already fails many players, the new one will fail more. 

This is a great question and one I don't think anyone has an answer for at this time. 

 

The transfer portal is already a disaster for student athletes as most who enter never find a new home and scholarship and that alone can be the end of their college careers.

[David Marsh]

On 8/2/2022 at 8:28 AM, The Kamikaze Kid said:

Have any of these movers and shakers even considered the dangers of going down the semi pro path? There is a magic to college sports that pro sports can not capture. Currently, game day across the nation is a day of celebration and excitement. It's a community event that brings people together. I don't think that element of atmosphere will continue in the semi pro era.

 

As of now, the top 30-40 teams in the country sit atop the conferences year after year getting to feel like big dogs all over the country. Every one of them get to start out the season feeling like this year will be the year! In the semi pro model, one of two things will happen, the cream will continue to rise to the top ( Ohio St, Alabama) or a draft type system cools everybody's jets with parody.

 

If the same four teams have the only real chance of winning the championship every year, how do the other semi pro teams feel about that? How excited will the Texas fan base be after ten seasons of going 5-7? With a draft bringing parody, how excited does the semi pro fan base feel with most teams hovering around 5-7, 6-6, and 7-5?

 

No matter what semi pro teams do, they will never compete with the real deal of the NFL. Is leaving the college atmosphere behind to simply become a AAA baseball team really a step in the right direction? I use to be a die hard UO basketball fan but recently with all of the one and done five stars changing the face of the team every year, I've lost a lot of the zeal I used to have. I feel the semi pro direction of football will do the same thing for that sport.

Mike Leach had an idea I actually liked the other day when he said players out of high school declare as amatures or pros and if they are pros they get drafted. 

 

I feel a draft of top talent would make things far more fair. 

 

But... Once there is a draft there is no illusion anymore that this is pro-sports. So I can see all the major players wanting to hold off on creating a draft indefinitely. That way they can at least continue to pretend this is still college ball. 

 

Right now I'm also feeling like the whole recruiting industry is part of the problem. However, there is no changing that either. How many of us get emotionally caught up and involved by decisions that high schoolers make? 

[Pac10again]

I for one have already quit buying any merchandise from any collegiate football team.  i will continue to cheer, watch the games, and wish the student athletes the best, but I will never again financially support the schools.  They get a free top tier education that most do not.  They have been getting paid now for years.  It has already become a professional sport; who are we kidding besides ourselves?

[lownslowav8r]

On 8/2/2022 at 10:09 AM, Pac10again said:

On 8/2/2022 at 7:42 AM, lownslowav8r said:

Another question is what happens to the kids who go semi-pro and don’t make the NFL? Minimal or no education and their playing days are done. Our current system already fails many players, the new one will fail more. 

I disagree the players have an opportunity at a great education for free.  If they choose to not take advantage of that they failed themselves. 

In a semi-pro league the travel and increased training demands will make it increasingly hard to study. If NFL teams become involved or semi-pro teams are no longer closely tied to a school, wages will be in paid in lieu of scholarships. 

[David Marsh]

On 8/2/2022 at 11:16 AM, lownslowav8r said:

In a semi-pro league the travel and increased training demands will make it increasingly hard to study. If NFL teams become involved or semi-pro teams are no longer closely tied to a school, wages will be in paid in lieu of scholarships. 

At that point they'd probably drop any academic requirements entirely.

 

Let's face it in the age of NIL some of these kids are only interested in the money anyways. If NIL wasn't a factor would Nico have chosen Tennessee? Would Rashada have chosen Miami? 

 

Probably not to both... They aren't going to either of those schools for the education either. 

[mikethehiker]

The answer to all this may be to let go of "the dream" and create a parallel NCAA.  The "have nots" outnumber the "haves" by a mile.  The "have-nots" should let go of the "haves" and create their ideal system around amateur student athletics.  Create the best playoff possible where everything is settled on the field, reign in coaches pay, eliminate NIL, reign in the demands being put on student athletes.  Create a competitive NCAA based on competing ideals and let's see who wins out.  One rule - there can be no crossover play.  If you want to compete in our "league" with amateur athletics, you have to abide by amateur athletic rules.  The semi-pros need the "have nots" to beat up on.  Maybe when the "have nots" stop complying, the "haves" will get tired of beating the snot out of each other and losing and will prefer a more pure form of amateur athletics where the best athletes are more spread out across the country.

[David Marsh]

On 8/2/2022 at 11:37 AM, mikethehiker said:

The answer to all this may be to let go of "the dream" and create a parallel NCAA.  The "have nots" outnumber the "haves" by a mile.  The "have-nots" should let go of the "haves" and create their ideal system around amateur student athletics.  Create the best playoff possible where everything is settled on the field, reign in coaches pay, eliminate NIL, reign in the demands being put on student athletes.  Create a competitive NCAA based on competing ideals and let's see who wins out.  One rule - there can be no crossover play.  If you want to compete in our "league" with amateur athletics, you have to abide by amateur athletic rules.  The semi-pros need the "have nots" to beat up on.  Maybe when the "have nots" stop complying, the "haves" will get tired of beating the snot out of each other and losing and will prefer a more pure form of amateur athletics where the best athletes are more spread out across the country.

I do feel that is where this is going. 

 

Originally this was one very long article that started to explore the two parallel leagues. But I cut out that part and I am saving it for a future article. 

 

However, even the older and more traditional model is going to have to change. 

 

Whether that is a reduction in the amount of team activity and practice hours or just having some form of universal compensation. The traditional model as is is not going to work but what we have now is also disheartening for anyone that isn't in the top NIL group of teams.

[mikethehiker]

On 8/2/2022 at 11:51 AM, David Marsh said:

I do feel that is where this is going. 

 

Originally this was one very long article that started to explore the two parallel leagues. But I cut out that part and I am saving it for a future article. 

 

However, even the older and more traditional model is going to have to change. 

 

Whether that is a reduction in the amount of team activity and practice hours or just having some form of universal compensation. The traditional model as is is not going to work but what we have now is also disheartening for anyone that isn't in the top NIL group of teams.

Agreed, something needs to change.  It should be a blank canvas.  I'd rather reduce the demands on players than compensate.  How can you compensate a male sport and not female athletics in a Title IX world?  And why not all sports?  It's always been a slippery slope.  Far more student athletes appreciate the opportunity to attend school for free that those who feel they need to be paid.  The truth is that it is a privilege to play and showcase your talent on a college football stage.  Athletes used to be thrilled just to show up on ESPN, Sportcenter, or FOX.  The product being sold to TV viewers is not the athletes or the names.  It's the schools, amateur athletics, and the college football stage.  It's a BIG advantage for these elite athletes to be part of that.  Try building your personal brand without the college football stage.  My 2 cents

[Notalot]

I had quieted my stirrings with the axiom, "99% of things we worry about never happen". Chill.

 

Since I am simply a fan, I'll observe as college football changes and the dust settles. I will watch the Ducks and their foes after that to see what is new and better (?).

 

Somewhere along the timeline I am statistically likely to die given the probabilities for aging.

 

Thank you David for articulating various premises throughout your article.

 

 

[Charles Fischer]

On 8/2/2022 at 11:15 AM, Pac10again said:

I for one have already quit buying any merchandise from any collegiate football team.  i will continue to cheer, watch the games, and wish the student athletes the best, but I will never again financially support the schools.  They get a free top tier education that most do not.  They have been getting paid now for years.  It has already become a professional sport; who are we kidding besides ourselves?

This is true.  We calculated two summers ago the total value of playing football at Oregon to be nearly two millions dollars....and it is not enough?  David--that was a very thoughtful and superb article...thanks.

 

Pac-12 Football Players: All for Them, and NONE for All

FISHDUCK.COM

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Do Pac-12 football players really get it? While that may seem to be insulting to them, it is a question that many of us who do the donating and buying of...

 

[Washington Waddler]

On 8/2/2022 at 7:42 AM, lownslowav8r said:

Another question is what happens to the kids who go semi-pro and don’t make the NFL? Minimal or no education and their playing days are done. Our current system already fails many players, the new one will fail more. 

     Because it’s the only working model I know of for this kind of sports reality, MLB’s relationship to its minor league affiliates shows that the vast majority of athletes play a supporting role to the few with any chance of ever getting to the majors. But, they are necessary, so - if they want to, and they want to - MLB makes sure they get something for doing what they love. 

 

   If some form of this sickening and depressing arrangement should come to pass,  I would hope that Federal and state agencies, as well as the universities, stick it to the NFL as a retroactive accounting for the way they have benefitted over the decades for a product in which they never had to invest: ie, by  picking up:

 

     1) the cost of degree completion for non-contracted athletes following there 4 to 5 years of ‘minor league’ employment, and

     2) the cost of a fully-vested retirement fund, and

     3) the cost of guaranteed medical for life for any employment-related injuries

 

     It’s the least they could do for pulling the strings of college ball over the years, and - along with fellow bedmates in cable tv - paving the way for what we are now facing.

[Duckdude]

The “Traditionalists” will have their own Football National Championship.   They will be like the “NIT” to the “NCAAs” in college basketball.

[David Marsh]

On 8/2/2022 at 2:44 PM, Duckdude said:

The “Traditionalists” will have their own Football National Championship.   They will be like the “NIT” to the “NCAAs” in college basketball.

I think so... 

 

But I kind of like to think of it more akin to the FBS national championship and the FCS national championship. Though hopefully with more eyeballs on it. 

 

It would be first be seen as something lesser ... But I think eventually it becomes something different as they wouldn't be equal but different. 

 

When it comes to the FCS tournament there is a very real aspect that FCS schools and their fans actually like it more than the FBS model. 

 

You could make a strong argument that North Dakota could compete at the FBS level and I think they could with some growing pains. But North Dakota doesn't want to be apart of the FBS and they like where they are at. 

 

I saw North Dakota mentioned in a conference expansion thing recently and I doubt they'd even be interested. They like being the big fish in their pond. 

 

I think the traditionalist drive will be something a bit similar... They don't need to be the big fish but it would be nice if they weren't just considered feeder fish for the Ohio state's and Alabama's. 

[Duck 1972]

We have already been in the have's and have nots for 10 years. The difference is the new media deals and the stealing of top teams from lesser conferences. Players have already been being paid to go certain schools. Players have transferred.

 

So to me not that much has changed. I believe we should have a Division 1a. Semi pro.  That includes the big boys in the B1G, SEC, and anyone else who wants to do that. 

 

Then we have a Division 1b. for the rest of the teams who value tradition and student/athletes just like David has outlined. I don't know about you but I don't watch the pros and wouldn't watch the semipro's.

 

It takes away the excitement from the game. The traditional form is so much more appealing that that's where my interest and money would go.

 

I want to watch players who compete for the love of the game instead of money. I also believe that a lot of players see the futility of not getting an education but being paid a pittance for a couple yrs and then have nothing to show for it.

 

There's already a model in place. It would be just like the minors in MLB. In the current system you can go right to playing ball or u can go to college for 3 to 4 yrs before entering pro ball.  

 

The lesser Divisions of CFB have championships that their fans love when their team wins. It will be no different for this new division.  I don't see a problem.

Edited August 2, 2022 by Duck 1972

[David Marsh]

On 8/2/2022 at 3:15 PM, Duck 1972 said:

Then we have a Division 1b. for the rest of the teams who value tradition and student/athletes just like David has outlined. I don't know about you but I don't watch the pros and wouldn't watch the semipro's.

And I think this is true of a good portion of the fan base on the whole. 

 

Every year I have students ask me what my NFL team is as it is blatantly apparent in a Duck fan (I have an Oregon flag on my classroom wall). I always say which team has the most Ducks on it but I don't actually actively watch the NFL. I find the NFL boring. 

 

Now I will watch Mariota v Herbert this year because that will be a game worth watching. 

[McDuck]

I wonder how many schools in the semi-pro league would prefer to revert to the traditionalist model.  I don't think institutions like Vanderbilt, Perdue, Northwestern etc have any illusion of getting to the national championship game.  Wouldn't they prefer to be on an equal footing?  

[David Marsh]

On 8/2/2022 at 4:20 PM, McDuck said:

I wonder how many schools in the semi-pro league would prefer to revert to the traditionalist model.  I don't think institutions like Vanderbilt, Perdue, Northwestern etc have any illusion of getting to the national championship game.  Wouldn't they prefer to be on an equal footing?  

This one I think depends completely on the money. 

[DCDuckfan]

On 8/2/2022 at 1:09 PM, Pac10again said:

I disagree the players have an opportunity at a great education for free.  If they choose to not take advantage of that they failed themselves. 

Bingo...decisions have consequences.

[David Marsh]

On 8/2/2022 at 10:09 AM, Pac10again said:

I disagree the players have an opportunity at a great education for free.  If they choose to not take advantage of that they failed themselves. 

I think a major problem today in recruiting is that the education is not being sold as part of the college package. 

 

What is being sold is the NIL money, a path to the NFL, the coaches and facilities, and then the education. 

 

Then beyond that..  if you're not getting what you think you deserve then hop on in the transfer portal and you'll get it... Only the vast majority of those who enter the transfer portal are not taken anywhere and they lose their scholarships at their current universities. 

 

So I do agree in that many student athletes are failing to get an education is on them but I do feel the system around them is telling them something very different. 

[lownslowav8r]

Personal responsibility is great but systems (parents, how kids are recruited, what recruits are told, how much study time is scheduled, how hard the school pushes them to graduate, etc.) matter. Also how many of us had good decision making skills at 17 or 18?
 

Parents send their kids to college with the expectation that they will be guided in the process of growing up and graduating. Even Alabama which has 80+% 4/5* only sends about 9 players per year to the pros. Semi-pro players will likely not graduate because that is not important to these schools. More time practicing and less time studying means more chance of winning. 

[ColoradoDuck]

On 8/2/2022 at 12:27 PM, David Marsh said:

At that point they'd probably drop any academic requirements entirely.

 

Let's face it in the age of NIL some of these kids are only interested in the money anyways. If NIL wasn't a factor would Nico have chosen Tennessee? Would Rashada have chosen Miami? 

 

Probably not to both... They aren't going to either of those schools for the education either. 

In the infamous words of Cardale Jones "we ain't come to play school"

[Denverduck07]

The slide toward semi-pro will continue without much real resistance. When will the break come between universities and athletics? The traditional bond holding the two together weakens by the year.

[DazeNconfused]

Hey Marsh, I just read this whole article and you nailed it dude!

It might be ugly to look where this is going down the road but Boom, you dropped it out there how I would guess it will go. 

 

Congrats, really good article, you got a ton of discussion and the board fired up!

[DazeNconfused]

On 8/3/2022 at 5:37 AM, ColoradoDuck said:

In the infamous words of Cardale Jones "we ain't come to play school"

lmao! How true! That post might have won the internet yesterday!

[David Marsh]

On 8/3/2022 at 3:24 PM, Denverduck07 said:

The slide toward semi-pro will continue without much real resistance. When will the break come between universities and athletics? The traditional bond holding the two together weakens by the year.

As for a time frame I'm thinking we are looking at around 5-10 years. Conference realignment is on going no matter what anyone says, including the leaders of the conferences themselves.

 

NIL is still very new and there is a whole lot more that will develop. It's just accelerating at a crazy rate right now.