Fear of the Blowout

[FishDuck Article]

Move over, Ohio State. As huge as that 2021 non-conference game was for the Ducks and the Pac-12, it does not reach the heights of this year’s epic Week 1 matchup against the defending National Champion Georgia Bulldogs in Atlanta. Unless, of course, the Ducks get blown out; then Oregon fans can downplay the significance of this game. They can ...

 

 

Fear of the Blowout

FISHDUCK.COM

---

Darren Perkins of FishDuck.com believes there is no fear of Oregon getting blown out in the Oregon vs. Georgia matchup, in fact, the game should...

[Pac10again]

I am wondering what changes have been made to our O-line.  I saw it get stuffed by Utah twice, and by a very average Oklahoma team.  We couldn't create a hole a mouse could squeak through, much less protect the QB.  What has changed so much in 5 months that we can now score against a much better defensive line then Utah's?  

 

Reports out of Georgia say they are in mid season form conditioning wise.  I have family there.  I knew they were taking us much more serious than Ohio State did.  And Georgia destroyed Michigan, which destroyed Ohio State, which then beat Utah, who destroyed us.    Just a few months ago.

 

For this to not be a blow out we need 28 points.   To win we need 40.   Georgia's offense will not miss a beat from when they played Alabama.   

 

Unless people think our defense is better than Alabama's was last year?

 

So I am hoping Mr. Perkins is correct, but there are plenty of signs that point to a blow out.

 

Just my thoughts

[Charles Fischer]

Great article to address our fears Darren, but again--I believe the biggest surprise of the conference will be the Oregon defense.  The front seven will be much better than the media, and Georgia fans, are thinking.  It will not be easy for Oregon to score either, thus I see a close, low-scoring game.

 

[David Marsh]

On 8/29/2022 at 7:54 AM, Pac10again said:

I am wondering what changes have been made to our O-line.  I saw it get stuffed by Utah twice, and by a very average Oklahoma team.  We couldn't create a hole a mouse could squeak through, much less protect the QB.  What has changed so much in 5 months that we can now score against a much better defensive line then Utah's?  

A QB who can pass the ball and a scheme that allows for some easy throws that go for some decent chunk yardage would make all the difference. 

 

Oregon was super one dimensional last year. If we were running the ball we were throwing a short route. 

 

Utah had the blue print. Sell out to stop the run and challenge Oregon to throw it. It worked. 

 

I think Klemm is going to have our offensive line more specialized and our run game is going to have some more diverse ways of getting players into space. MC didn't want his runners in space, he wanted them to pound up the middle and win the game through physicality alone. 

 

Then we are going to have a QB who is going to stretch the field. Beyond that we should be seeing more of Oregon's tightends who can come across the middle and make those shorter catches. 

 

All of that will freeze the linebackers a bit so they can't just mindlessly crash down on Oregon's offensive line. 

 

All of that opens up the run game as well. 

 

We cannot assume that this Oregon team is the same as last year's and will suffer the same fates. The scheme sare different if when the personnel is the same. 

 

Beyond that the coaching is different as well. And that will play a huge part as well. 

[Haywarduck]

Who knows, but a blowout, or sound defeat would only be truly tough to swallow for one team. There is a huge upside for Oregon, but the dawgs need a strong showing or the national champs will be questioned going forward. 

 

I actually have no fear of a defeat, it would provide plenty of room for the growth mindset Lanning is trying to instill. Bring on the game and whatever outcome that happens!

[Mudslide]

My fear, too, is the OL turning to Swiss cheese against some fearsome D-linemen.  Agreed that the scheme will be different this year...but the OL boys will still have to pass protect.  There is a lot undeserved praise being heaped upon the OL this year...just because the group is quite experienced.  But all the experience in the world will not stop superior and experienced talent...players like that monster number 88, Carter.

 

Our QB will be running and throwing from heavy pressure....a lot I surmise.  So it will be Bo Nix's burden to keep the Ducks rolling.  Can he improve over previous years' performances?  Knock off the head scratching plays?  If not.......it could be a blowout, sadly.  We'll find out in 6 days!

 

Everywhere else on O and D, we have potential to do really good things against Georgia.  Let us hope for potential-realized.

 

Go Ducks!  Go Bo!  And my prayers out to (especially to the right side of) the offensive line.

[JunkyardDawg]

Just wanted to provide a little more context on the first game for the Dawgs last year against Clemson.  

 

The UGA offense was wholly ineffective that day.  No question.  There were a number of factors that played into that which won't be considerations in game one this year.  For example:

 

1) The starting QB for the Dawgs, JT Daniels, had a rib injury he was working through.  He was very limited in that game as evidenced by his passing chart below.  Only 8 passes were even attempted from 10-20 yds downfield and none beyond 20 yards.  His yards per pass attempt for the game was 4.5 ypa.  For contrast this year, Stetson Bennett's yards per attempt last year was 9.9 which was good for 2nd nationally for Power 5 QBs with more than ~150 attempts.  

 

JT Daniels in game #1 vs Clemson from PFF

 

 

 

2)  UGA was really banged up at WR and TE.  Everyone knows that George Pickens was out, but Jermaine Burton, Kearis Jackson, Darnell Washington, and Dom Blalock were all either out or highly limited.  A true FR was the most targeted receiver in the game.

 

3)  The UGA OL was starting a new center and lost the starting RG on the 4th offensive snap.  This was against a DL with four 5 stars in the lineup with Brian Bresee, Myles Murphy, KJ Henry, and Xavier Thomas.  Not to mention Trenton Simpson at LB as a former 5 star too.  This was a factor in the conservative game plan as well.  

 

So, to sum up, Clemson was a highly mediocre team last year in general, but in game one they were very healthy on the defensive side of the ball and really posed a problem to a banged up UGA offense.  Had the game been played later in the year, it most likely would have looked much different.  

[Darren Perkins]

On 8/29/2022 at 7:54 AM, Pac10again said:

I am wondering what changes have been made to our O-line.  I saw it get stuffed by Utah twice, and by a very average Oklahoma team.  We couldn't create a hole a mouse could squeak through, much less protect the QB.  What has changed so much in 5 months that we can now score against a much better defensive line then Utah's?  

 

Reports out of Georgia say they are in mid season form conditioning wise.  I have family there.  I knew they were taking us much more serious than Ohio State did.  And Georgia destroyed Michigan, which destroyed Ohio State, which then beat Utah, who destroyed us.    Just a few months ago.

 

For this to not be a blow out we need 28 points.   To win we need 40.   Georgia's offense will not miss a beat from when they played Alabama.   

 

Unless people think our defense is better than Alabama's was last year?

 

So I am hoping Mr. Perkins is correct, but there are plenty of signs that point to a blow out.

 

Just my thoughts

The Utah games may have just come down to the predictibility of the Mario offense. His 3 yards and a cloud of dust play calling. The Sooners game could have been due to apathy. 

[Darren Perkins]

On 8/29/2022 at 8:16 AM, Charles Fischer said:

Great article to address our fears Darren, but again--I believe the biggest surprise of the conference will be the Oregon defense.  The front seven will be much better than the media, and Georgia fans, are thinking.  It will not be easy for Oregon to score either, thus I see a close, low-scoring game.

 

Good points. And hopefully Flowe stays healthy!

[Darren Perkins]

On 8/29/2022 at 8:18 AM, David Marsh said:

A QB who can pass the ball and a scheme that allows for some easy throws that go for some decent chunk yardage would make all the difference. 

 

Oregon was super one dimensional last year. If we were running the ball we were throwing a short route. 

 

Utah had the blue print. Sell out to stop the run and challenge Oregon to throw it. It worked. 

 

I think Klemm is going to have our offensive line more specialized and our run game is going to have some more diverse ways of getting players into space. MC didn't want his runners in space, he wanted them to pound up the middle and win the game through physicality alone. 

 

Then we are going to have a QB who is going to stretch the field. Beyond that we should be seeing more of Oregon's tightends who can come across the middle and make those shorter catches. 

 

All of that will freeze the linebackers a bit so they can't just mindlessly crash down on Oregon's offensive line. 

 

All of that opens up the run game as well. 

 

We cannot assume that this Oregon team is the same as last year's and will suffer the same fates. The scheme sare different if when the personnel is the same. 

 

Beyond that the coaching is different as well. And that will play a huge part as well. 

Yup, the predictability of the Mario offense. 

[Steven A]

On 8/29/2022 at 8:18 AM, David Marsh said:

Utah had the blue print.

Plus, 

 

1) home game for first game (and you think Autzen in tough)

2) confidence boiling over for game #2

3) most important, playing for two fallen brothers.

 

That is a blueprint to beat anyone, then throw in a Mari "O"!

[OhioDuck]

As I recall, I sometimes don't recall correctly so take with a grain of salt, Oregon's O line was pretty banged up at the end of the season. 

 

That can make a lot of difference on the O-line. A split second loss of lateral movement (due to injury) is the difference between a completed pass and a sack, a 6 or 8 yard run and getting stuffed for 1 or 2. 

 

Here's to healthy players all year long for everyone. 

[Darren Perkins]

On 8/29/2022 at 8:26 AM, Haywarduck said:

Who knows, but a blowout, or sound defeat would only be truly tough to swallow for one team. There is a huge upside for Oregon, but the dawgs need a strong showing or the national champs will be questioned going forward. 

 

I actually have no fear of a defeat, it would provide plenty of room for the growth mindset Lanning is trying to instill. Bring on the game and whatever outcome that happens!

Yeah, we gotta show some fight and competence. 

[Duck Fan 76]

On 8/29/2022 at 2:05 AM, FishDuck Article said:

the heights of this year’s epic Week 1 matchup against the defending National Champion Georgia Bulldogs

Excellent article!  The top three of that talent ranking all have something in common, they consistently turn those rosters into wins!  That's why they are THE preeminent teams in CFB.

 

We don't have to beat Georgia to have a great season but Oregon DOES need to show that it's developing its talent and executing on the field.  For a CFB program to be considered a success it needs to:

 

1) Develop its current talent

2) Recruit at a high level

3) Stay consistent and execute on the field

 

Those three elements add up to wins, and most importantly quality wins.  With consistent quality wins comes the playoffs and the truth is knocking one of the big three out in the championship is a BIG BIG deal.

 

Consider just how long Georgia has been recruiting, developing and executing at a high level and they had to wait till just last year to get the big W.

 

So what constitutes an Oregon win on Saturday?  Talented recruits and players across the country seeing Oregon play above it's average star ranking and causing Georgia to have to work for the W.  That's not a moral victory, that's the first battle in what hopefully is staff continuity here at Oregon.  We can't continue to be a coaching stepping stones to "dream schools".  We need Oregon to be the coaching dream school.

 

Again I'm not arguing for moral victories here but in the current era of media dominated CFB Oregon needs to fight to be a "dream school" for coaches and players.  Think about this for a second, what are SEC players going to think if Oregon makes Bo look like a top tier QB against Georgia?  What does that do for Oregon in the transfer portal and in recruiting through the south?  What does a dominate Oregon defense do for recruiting lineman in the SEC's backyard?

 

I think Oregon will show very well against Georgia but the goal here is the real and perceived program trajectory.  Not so?  What did Alabama look like in the decade before Saban?

[Mic]

On 8/29/2022 at 10:21 AM, Darren Perkins said:

Yeah, we gotta show some fight and competence. 

Don't you worry.  If nothing else happens good Saturday I think O fans can count on a team with the fight instilled in them.  And I'm sure the Bulldogs know it.

[Haywarduck]

On 8/29/2022 at 11:13 AM, Duck Fan 76 said:

  What does that do for Oregon in the transfer portal and in recruiting through the south?  What does a dominate Oregon defense do for recruiting lineman in the SEC's backyard?

 

I think Oregon will show very well against Georgia but the goal here is the real and perceived program trajectory. 

8 years ago Oregon looked like an exciting challenger on the national stage. Since then we have been recruiting on the fumes of those days. I completely agree this is an opportunity to begin building the look of another dominate looking program.

 

A big win here, and there, isn't what Oregon needs. Many programs do that, and we don't want to be one of those.  Oregon needs to be exciting again, relevant in the title hunt again. We can't win one big one, then lose to lesser talent, or not build as the season goes on.

 

The flashy uniforms and facilities are still the shiny trinket everyone wants to see. That isn't going to sustain an elite program. We need an offense and a defense which makes others worry.

 

This game is the first opportunity to say we are back, with an offense, defense and special teams, along with execution, discipline. What is the Lanning team going to look like. Do we fit into the elite class, first test, and then we have to keep proving it.

[Pac10again]

On 8/29/2022 at 11:13 AM, Duck Fan 76 said:

Excellent article!  The top three of that talent ranking all have something in common, they consistently turn those rosters into wins!  That's why they are THE preeminent teams in CFB.

 

We don't have to beat Georgia to have a great season but Oregon DOES need to show that it's developing its talent and executing on the field.  For a CFB program to be considered a success it needs to:

 

1) Develop its current talent

2) Recruit at a high level

3) Stay consistent and execute on the field

 

Those three elements add up to wins, and most importantly quality wins.  With consistent quality wins comes the playoffs and the truth is knocking one of the big three out in the championship is a BIG BIG deal.

 

Consider just how long Georgia has been recruiting, developing and executing at a high level and they had to wait till just last year to get the big W.

 

So what constitutes an Oregon win on Saturday?  Talented recruits and players across the country seeing Oregon play above it's average star ranking and causing Georgia to have to work for the W.  That's not a moral victory, that's the first battle in what hopefully is staff continuity here at Oregon.  We can't continue to be a coaching stepping stones to "dream schools".  We need Oregon to be the coaching dream school.

 

Again I'm not arguing for moral victories here but in the current era of media dominated CFB Oregon needs to fight to be a "dream school" for coaches and players.  Think about this for a second, what are SEC players going to think if Oregon makes Bo look like a top tier QB against Georgia?  What does that do for Oregon in the transfer portal and in recruiting through the south?  What does a dominate Oregon defense do for recruiting lineman in the SEC's backyard?

 

I think Oregon will show very well against Georgia but the goal here is the real and perceived program trajectory.  Not so?  What did Alabama look like in the decade before Saban?

"What did Alabama look like in the decade before Saban?"  they have like 16 or 18 depending on the view.  16 undisputed.  7 under Saban I think

• Haywarduck
• 1

[Duck Fan 76]

On 8/29/2022 at 12:01 PM, Pac10again said:

they have like 16 or 18 depending on the view.  16 undisputed.  7 under Saban I think

Agreed, Alabama is a storied CFB powerhouse but I meant literally in the 10 years before Saban (2007). 

 

Alabama AP finishes 1996-2006 (11th, NR, NR, 8th, 21st, NR, 11th, NR, NR, 8th, NR).

 

Alabama AP finishes 2007-2021 (NR, 6th, 1st, 10th, 1st, 1st, 7th, 4th, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 8th, 1st, 2nd).

 

Oregon wants to be Alabama, not Washington.

[Darren Perkins]

On 8/29/2022 at 11:13 AM, Duck Fan 76 said:

Excellent article!  The top three of that talent ranking all have something in common, they consistently turn those rosters into wins!  That's why they are THE preeminent teams in CFB.

 

We don't have to beat Georgia to have a great season but Oregon DOES need to show that it's developing its talent and executing on the field.  For a CFB program to be considered a success it needs to:

 

1) Develop its current talent

2) Recruit at a high level

3) Stay consistent and execute on the field

 

Those three elements add up to wins, and most importantly quality wins.  With consistent quality wins comes the playoffs and the truth is knocking one of the big three out in the championship is a BIG BIG deal.

 

Consider just how long Georgia has been recruiting, developing and executing at a high level and they had to wait till just last year to get the big W.

 

So what constitutes an Oregon win on Saturday?  Talented recruits and players across the country seeing Oregon play above it's average star ranking and causing Georgia to have to work for the W.  That's not a moral victory, that's the first battle in what hopefully is staff continuity here at Oregon.  We can't continue to be a coaching stepping stones to "dream schools".  We need Oregon to be the coaching dream school.

 

Again I'm not arguing for moral victories here but in the current era of media dominated CFB Oregon needs to fight to be a "dream school" for coaches and players.  Think about this for a second, what are SEC players going to think if Oregon makes Bo look like a top tier QB against Georgia?  What does that do for Oregon in the transfer portal and in recruiting through the south?  What does a dominate Oregon defense do for recruiting lineman in the SEC's backyard?

 

I think Oregon will show very well against Georgia but the goal here is the real and perceived program trajectory.  Not so?  What did Alabama look like in the decade before Saban?

Good points. I would add that in a loss, they at least need to lose in a way that keeps them in the playoff conversation. So, basically a close, hard-fought game. 

[Charles Fischer]

On 8/29/2022 at 11:13 AM, Duck Fan 76 said:

Consider just how long Georgia has been recruiting, developing and executing at a high level and they had to wait till just last year to get the big W.

Amen Duck-Brother, and while we don't want to be patient...we need to be.  But darn!  This front seven on defense is so experienced and we won't have this kind of scenario for a few years...

[Darren Perkins]

On 8/29/2022 at 12:01 PM, Pac10again said:

"What did Alabama look like in the decade before Saban?"  they have like 16 or 18 depending on the view.  16 undisputed.  7 under Saban I think

• Haywarduck
• 1

Their previous was in '92 under Gene Stallings then did very little until Saban. 

[SoGaDawg]

On 8/29/2022 at 3:22 PM, Duck Fan 76 said:

Agreed, Alabama is a storied CFB powerhouse but I meant literally in the 10 years before Saban (2007). 

 

Alabama AP finishes 1996-2006 (11th, NR, NR, 8th, 21st, NR, 11th, NR, NR, 8th, NR).

 

Alabama AP finishes 2007-2021 (NR, 6th, 1st, 10th, 1st, 1st, 7th, 4th, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 8th, 1st, 2nd).

 

Oregon wants to be Alabama, not Washington.

Yep, I’m not particularly a Saban fan lately for obvious reasons.  But it’s hard to argue with results.  Saban is the man.  And indirectly Saban played at least a small part in GA being where they are now, as I’m sure Kirby learned a good bit in his time coaching under Saban.  
 

Alabama isn’t traditionally a big GA rival.  The rivalry has only come to real prominence since Saban has been there, and GA coming so close so many times only to fall just short behind Bama.  To be honest, before this past season it was a bit odd to call it a rivalry bc even though GA came close several times and almost always barely lost to Bama, we always lost the big games to Bama and Saban.  
 

It’s awesome to have great confidence in your team, but I can tell you from experience that patience can pay off.  And beating Bama for the NC was a little sweeter after having come up just short so many times.

[Red Eddy Green]

You got me curious, OBD AP rank 2000-10: 7,2,nr,nr,nr,12,nr,23,10,11,3

 

2011-21:  4,2,9,2,19,nr,nr,nr,5,nr,22

[Darren Perkins]

On 8/29/2022 at 1:34 PM, SoGaDawg said:

Yep, I’m not particularly a Saban fan lately for obvious reasons.  But it’s hard to argue with results.  Saban is the man.  And indirectly Saban played at least a small part in GA being where they are now, as I’m sure Kirby learned a good bit in his time coaching under Saban.  
 

Alabama isn’t traditionally a big GA rival.  The rivalry has only come to real prominence since Saban has been there, and GA coming so close so many times only to fall just short behind Bama.  To be honest, before this past season it was a bit odd to call it a rivalry bc even though GA came close several times and almost always barely lost to Bama, we always lost the big games to Bama and Saban.  
 

It’s awesome to have great confidence in your team, but I can tell you from experience that patience can pay off.  And beating Bama for the NC was a little sweeter after having come up just short so many times.

What some Duck fans may not know, and this is not for the faint of heart, is that the man who gave Saban his first coaching job as a GA in 1973 at KEnt State was none other than DON JAMES. Yup, Saban is a Don James descendent. 

[Duckhart]

After watching how slow both the O & D lines were against Utah, I sure hope Dan has addressed this or its going to be a long day Saturday.

It great to have big linemen but they must be quick to contend for conference cship.

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

On 8/29/2022 at 11:16 AM, Charles Fischer said:

I see a close, low-scoring game.

 

I think UGA gets a few more scores due to the “Bo” factor. He’s probably going to give them a short field for a TD or two. It may end up like the 2011 LSU game. Turnovers can change the trajectory in a heartbeat. 
 

I know it works both ways but, Bennet is a seasoned national champion. He is good at getting the ball in the right hands.