Third Down Defense Musings

[AnotherOD]

NCAA Third Down Defense:

 

125. Northern Illinois (2-7)  0.48

126. Oregon (8-1)  0.48

127. Arizona (3-6)  0.49

128. Florida International (4-5)  0.50

129. Florida (5-4)   0.50

130. ASU (3-6)   0.511

131. Colorado (1-8)   0.518

 

Since I imagine the Ducks are running a similar scheme:

 

4. Georgia (9-0)   0.272

 

The current top 5 in the college football playoff ahead of Oregon in 3rd down

 

Georgia 4

Ohio State 10

Michigan 9

TCU 64

Tennessee 31

Oregon 126

 

(So it probably can be seen as teams playing from behind gobbling up 1st throwing against teams almost always ahead)

 

It was a bit harder to find, but last year (10-4), ended at: 0.459. So, not entirely a lot better.

 

It probably of course has something to do with:

 

2022 Pass Efficiency Defense:

 

93. Oregon (8-1)   138.09

 

2022 Pass Yards Allowed

 

117. Oregon (8-1)   276.6

 

And the random unofficial stat that Oregon has allowed 123 first down by the pass (126th most) but only 55 by rush (tied 15th fewest).

 

Overall, College football F+ has Oregon's defense ranked a respectable 51st, so, what are we thinking is going on with 3rd down? The obvious target is the pass defense but it seems like it's got two probable NFL guys in Gonzalez and Williams and a pair of top 150 recruits in Addison and Stevens (and a five star in Manning and a guy who has played a lot in Hill)? "Bend but don't break" maybe explains a bit, but "bend but don't break" is all over college football (with less breaking).

 

I took a look at some of the numbers, and I'm sort of at a loss. I guess a second question is will it be a backbreaker at some point? I see F+ currently has Oregon #2 in offense this year, ahead of everyone but Ohio State (#1), followed by Tennessee (#3), USC (#4), UCLA (#5), Georgia (#6), Alabama (#7), TCU (#8), North Carolina (#9), and Michigan (#10). Is it going to be the offense taking the season as far as it can, and the defense just contributing anything it can? If Oregon fortunately finds itself against a top team, or even final games against top Pac-12 competition, will it bite the team eventually?

 

I suppose getting into a new scheme might be bumpy at first then show some signs of improvement, but the struggle there seem to ongoing? Is there just something about 3rd down defense 125 out of 131 FBS college teams have figured out better?

 

Curious about thoughts and not trying to be negative (and understand the point Oregon is doing great and to enjoy the ride - so no disagreements there).

 

[David Marsh]

On 11/9/2022 at 1:09 PM, AnotherOD said:

I suppose getting into a new scheme might be bumpy at first then show some signs of improvement, but the struggle there seem to ongoing? Is there just something about 3rd down defense 125 out of 131 FBS college teams have figured out better?

Oregon seems to be creeping up on that chart. 

 

Keep in mind that it started out very very bad for the year. I would be interested to see what we rank minus the Georgia game where we only had one 3rd down that resulted in a stop but Georgia also didn't have many big time explosion plays as all of their TDs required them to drive the field. 

 

Oregon's 3rd down offense is also an inbuilt systemic problem that is a carry over from the previous administration. Cristobal's teams did a very bad job getting off the field on 3rd down in both the 2020 and 2021 seasons under two different DCs! 

 

Getting 3rd down under control is going to be a long term project. The good news is that Oregon is making progress but they have a long way to go still. Colorado converted too many 3rd downs when they shouldn't have been able to move the ball that well. 

[DanLduck]

A good question. 

My first response is that the most important stat is W and L.

We have 8 W's of 9 possible. 

I'll take that any day. 

 

It does make you wonder if against better teams this hurts us.

The next 3 - 4 games will prove out.

 

Playing cover 2 (2 deep safeties) helps control deep explosion plays, and keeps the offense in front of the D. It does allow for some open underneath routes that can make a first down. It also means that teams have to sustain long drives to score. Repeatedly.

That is difficult to sustain game long.

 

I think Lannings defensive plan is statistically sound. With our offense being as efficient and affective as it is, the opposition has to match that.

Our defense thus far has proven equal to the task.

 

Coach Lanning has remarked, "stats are for losers". Until he gets more of his recruits on the defensive side, we should be wary of worrying about "key stats". That's something for sports talking heads to fill up airwaves with.

 

Let's just concentrate on the win column.

[AnotherOD]

On 11/9/2022 at 1:35 PM, DanLduck said:

Playing cover 2 (2 deep safeties) helps control deep explosion plays, and keeps the offense in front of the D. It does allow for some open underneath routes that can make a first down. It also means that teams have to sustain long drives to score. Repeatedly. That is difficult to sustain game long.

 

I think Lannings defensive plan is statistically sound. With our offense being as efficient and affective as it is, the opposition has to match that.

Our defense thus far has proven equal to the task.

 

I would tend to agree, and if Oregon was ranking at maybe 64 (where TCU is currently), I could probably get behind "it is sort of working as planned".  Doesn't 126 out of 131 suggest the D is trying to do some things - and it's success rate - is still below target? When teams decide to run the ball on third, the scheme seems to be holding its own.

 

Edited November 9, 2022 by AnotherOD

[Charles Fischer]

On 11/9/2022 at 1:09 PM, AnotherOD said:

Curious about thoughts and not trying to be negative

Being negative is fine, and analysis like this is superb for us fans to know what to look for and ponder about.   (The only bad negative is excessive negative done several times a day, and nobody does that here anymore.  So I never want to discourage writing about the negative, as that is what a forum is for!)

 

Great one, AnotherOD! You are quite right, as this Oregon defense is not where Lanning/Lupoi want it to be yet.  But I wonder if more is in store as both the secondary and front seven improve, and as our defensive coaches can see what our players can execute?  This would be a good game to roll some new items out?

 

Michael Penix, Washington's QB, is outstanding and can convert on any third down.  How do we mess him up?  What tactics could Oregon throw at him?

 

What a great time for a shameless-plug for an article tomorrow on FishDuck about just that question!  DazeNconfused has another dandy for us to ponder...  

 

                                     Is this a hint?

[Haywarduck]

I'll take a prevent defense any day, as long I never see a prevent offense ever again!

 

I use to think the prevent defense was such a bad thing. CristabØ cured me of that perspective.

[1Funduck]

I understood what he meant with 'Stats are for losers' comment. However, I thoroughly disagree. Stats are for coaches. It's not the whole story, but it helps to identify tendencies that might be overlooked. 3rd down and distance? Completion percentages against specific defenses. Etc. Etc.

 

Oregon's defense is porous. There is no way around that. We struggle with 3rd downs because we don't have the personnel. We don't have to boat race other teams like U$C in order to win because of our defense, but I would give us an average score in rating our defense.

 

Like Coach Brooks said, the SEC is better because of their defensive players. The PAC'S offense is definitely good enough to hang with any conference. But, bring in the 'Big'ns for the D. 

 

That brings me to something I have been musing for a few weeks now and Coach DL addressed it again this week. DL is staying as long as Oregon will have him. He's going Nowhere. I'm salivating at the defensive prospects sure to come into the fold in the coming years. If you put an across the board 4 star defense with an ever-increasing quality of offensive player, Oregon should start to dominate at every level.

 

I do believe we are witnessing a dynasty form. If you can take a glorified B1G offensive roster and turn them into a dynamic Offensive juggernaut, what happens when you get 5* offensive players? 

 

I believe it will take 3 years to get the defense to look SEC like. Then......Watch Out!!

[David Marsh]

On 11/9/2022 at 2:41 PM, 1Funduck said:

That brings me to something I have been musing for a few weeks now and Coach DL addressed it again this week. DL is staying as long as Oregon will have him. He's going Nowhere. I'm salivating at the defensive prospects sure to come into the fold in the coming years. If you put an across the board 4 star defense with an ever-increasing quality of offensive player, Oregon should start to dominate at every level.

The personnel that Lanning wants, or seems to want, are some big time Defensive linemen who can rush four and dominate the pass rush. We really don't have that at this time but we aren't bad either. 

 

Then to have some linebackers who are flexible and can move between pass coverage and run defense seamlessly. Oregon's linebackers currently don't seem to be able to do this consistently. 

 

I do feel the secondary coverage has improved drastically over the course of the year. I don't feel the secondary is the biggest weakness at this point. Need some more pass rush to get some more pressure on the qb to make more mistakes though, that is what is really hurting us right now more than anything. 

[Drake]

Our OL is elite because they have played together for a long time. That experience of playing together is what separates them from the defense. 

 

The Defense has talent, but collectively they really haven’t played together that long. Plus, young DB’s get burned, that is the nature of one of the most difficult positions on a defense. 
 

Our defense will need to get more consistent pressure on opposing QB’s before they will see the defensive stats change. That may, or may not happen this year. But, we are in the CFP conversation, and our defense has been instrumental in helping us get into that position.

 

Every team left on the schedule wants to knock us out of that conversation, and arguably each poses a legitimate threat. Statistically speaking we shouldn’t have 8 wins, but let’s throw the stat sheet out the window and play some football. 

 

[Mic]

On 11/9/2022 at 1:09 PM, AnotherOD said:

125. Northern Illinois (2-7)  0.48

126. Oregon (8-1)  0.48

127. Arizona (3-6)  0.49

 

Overall, College football F+ has Oregon's defense ranked a respectable 51st, so, what are we thinking is going on with 3rd down? 

My thinking on this is: 1)  Lanning & Lupoi are giving up the underneath stuff (behind the Linebackers but in front of the DBs) to prevent explosive plays.  2)  Lanning & Dillingham are figuring on out-scoring the opponent and don't either care (not likely) or aren't expecting to be able to keep the opponent from scoring but instead slowing them down to limit the number of possessions they get for scoring.  

 

If you can outscore your opponent who cares how many 3rd downs they get?  I know he 'says' they want to limit the 3rd down conversions of the opponent (interviews) but I think it takes a back seat to the above situation.  Stats are nice - but the one that matters most is the final score.

Edited November 10, 2022 by Mic

[Charles Fischer]

On 11/9/2022 at 2:41 PM, 1Funduck said:

I believe it will take 3 years to get the defense to look SEC like. Then......Watch Out!!

Amen, Duck-Brother, Amen.

 

 

 

[AnotherOD]

I have never really understood the regular pairing of high powered offenses with "bend but don't break" defenses.

 

Aren't you pretty much assuring your high powered offense spends more time on the sidelines, as your opponent methodically gobbles up yards (and clock)?

 

Aren't you intentionally keeping what you feel is your weaker unit on the field more?

 

If you have the superior offense, why play a game where each team has 7-9 possessions each per game? Wouldn't your offensive superiority be more likely to show itself up in a game with 12-14 possessions each?

 

Let's say your offense is averaging like 3.4 points per drive and your opponent 3.1 points per drive. In an 9 possession game it's an expected 2.7 point advantage, in a 13 possession game, it's a 3.9 point advantage.

 

According to BCS Toys, this year Oregon is averaging 4.12 points per drive (#1) and is giving up 2.35 points per drive (#82). The advantage would seem with the offense on the field.

 

It would be interesting to see a high pressure/shut down defense paired with a high scoring offense. Sure you might give up a few more explosion plays (and scores) but that means you high powered offense is right back on the field (with time on the clock). You might also get more turnovers, 3-and-outs, and short fields - which might regularly break a game open. Once the game is broken open, only then maybe you switch to a "more safe" mode.

 

My guess is maybe many of these coaches play "bend but don't break" because they don't trust their D to play any other way?

Edited November 10, 2022 by AnotherOD

[Mic]

On 11/9/2022 at 5:33 PM, AnotherOD said:

I have never really understood the regular pairing of high powered offenses with "bend but don't break" defenses.

I think (don't know) that this happens because it's what (in Oregon's case with Kelly & now Lanning) it's what the team has, player personal-wise.  Charles has a nice image and the quote along the lines of "give us three more years".  The hope and expectation being Lanning will build a Defense to match the Offense we have now.  Wouldn't that be sweet?

[Charles Fischer]

On 11/9/2022 at 5:33 PM, AnotherOD said:

My guess is maybe many of these coaches play "bend but don't break" because they don't trust their D to play any other way?

Is Lanning's New Game-Plan...Chip Kelly 2.0?

FISHDUCK.COM

---

Oregon just beat the master, and his offense. How can you say the Ducks are CK 2.0? This is a natural question, and I would even suggest that this short article...

 

[Dr Hilarius]

On 11/9/2022 at 2:41 PM, 1Funduck said:

If you put an across the board 4 star defense with an ever-increasing quality of offensive player, Oregon should start to dominate at every level.

Just curious, which of our defensive backs aren’t 4 and 5 stars? I thought we were pretty well stocked. 

[Jon Sousa]

On 11/9/2022 at 5:33 PM, AnotherOD said:

Aren't you pretty much assuring your high powered offense spends more time on the sidelines, as your opponent methodically gobbles up yards (and clock)?

Scoring efficiency. One of the things said about the UCLA game was that with Lanning forcing UCLA to eat up a bunch of clock on their possessions, especially in the 2nd half when they were trailing. This meant that UCLA was never going to get enough possessions to come back and win. 

 

In the second half of that game, the Ducks were taking minutes off the clock on their drives... and they were forcing UCLA to take minutes off the clock on their drives. (You know that CK would love to score in less than 2 minutes.)

 

If you look at time of possession in our games, in most of them Oregon has more time of possession. That means that Oregon's offense IS on the field more than their defense is. Oregon's average time of possession this year is 31:33 while their opponents are averaging 28:26.

[The Kamikaze Kid]

From some scattered quotes I've heard from Lanning, I think he felt there was too much learning curve to the aggressive style he likes to coach. I think bend but don't break is his fall back plan being utilized as the team continues to grow understanding of the scheme. I think next year will begin the era of stout defensive schemes.

 

Remember, this is still the youngest team in the country and they're trying to learn a new system from new coaches. It's nice being able to critique the problems the defense is having while sitting at #6 in the country and a real threat to make the playoffs. Even with the poor third down stats, they still have had double digit late game leads on everybody since UGA, They even had a 10 point lead against WSU late until the hail Marry.

 

Lanning has found a way to have the defense be successful while still trying to figure out the system. Pretty impressive really.

[Mic]

On 11/9/2022 at 6:20 PM, The Kamikaze Kid said:

Lanning has found a way to have the defense be successful while still trying to figure out the system. Pretty impressive really.

As long as Oregon finishes the game with more points than the opponent I'm happy.  If Lanning can build a defense that can pitch a shutout or two later down the road - so much the better.  Baby steps.  Except on Offense!

[AnotherOD]

Not to go all "SEC fan" here, but looking at points allowed per drive, it could probably be argued the Pac-12 defenses have been pretty favorable for its opponents this year.

 

National Ranking:

 

WSU (#29)

Oregon State (#36)

 

Utah (#57)

Oregon (#82)

UCLA (#85)

Cal (#93)

 

USC (#100)

Washington (#104)

Stanford (#117)

ASU (#124)

Colorado (#128)

Arizona (#129)

 

It will be interesting to see come post-season how this shakes out for a Pac-12 most see as improved this year.

 

If the Ducks are going to score on every possession, I'll happily agree the D can be de-emphasized. However, much like Oregon found out in game one, Tennessee found out last week, what (sometimes) can happen to even an offense on a huge roll, when it gets to team at the top of that defensive list.

Edited November 10, 2022 by AnotherOD

[JDuck]

I think our success this year will improve recruiting, and kids know about Lanning and Lupoi's success on D.  We start filtering in more and more true 5 stars on D, and keep the offensive juggernaut going (no reason to think we won't, curious to see next year with a less experienced O-line) and we will be fine

[David Marsh]

On 11/9/2022 at 5:33 PM, AnotherOD said:

I have never really understood the regular pairing of high powered offenses with "bend but don't break" defenses.

 

Aren't you pretty much assuring your high powered offense spends more time on the sidelines, as your opponent methodically gobbles up yards (and clock)?

Aliotti determined that he needed a defense that had the endurance because it would have to play a lot of snaps against a fresh opposing offense that could control the clock. 

 

The other major point of bend but don't break is to not let anything go over the top of it. High powered offenses can win shoot outs but trying to limit the opponents ability to keep up is better. 

 

Ideally... Yes... Having a wrecking ball of a defense that just forces constant three and outs would be best.... But that also requires a lot more high level defensive lineman. Oregon, and many other schools, can get the athletes for the high powered offense but not the ones for a power defense. 

 

So bend but don't break was born in the modern era out of need to fix a problem. 

 

Also... Gotta burn clock some way and if you look at the Kelly Helfrich offenses they needed the tempo to make up for the agile but smaller linemen they had. Bend but don't break did at least burn a lot of clock and when done well limited the opponents points. 

 

But the end of the game the opponent was making lots of mistakes out of sheet desperation and the score board. Bend but don't break didn't give them any easy scores... They were going to have to drive the field and hurt themselves while burning the clock they desperately needed.

 

 

 

 

[Mic]

On 11/9/2022 at 5:48 PM, Dr Hilarius said:

Just curious, which of our defensive backs aren’t 4 and 5 stars? I thought we were pretty well stocked. 

I don't suppose anyone knows the answer to the doctor's question, do they?  My guess is not very many 4 stars and fewer, if any, 5.  Kayvon Thibaduex was a 5-star but he dun gone.

[Charles Fischer]

On 11/9/2022 at 6:20 PM, The Kamikaze Kid said:

I think he felt there was too much learning curve to the aggressive style he likes to coach. I think bend but don't break is his fall back plan being utilized as the team continues to grow understanding of the scheme.

Completely agree.

 

[David Marsh]

On 11/9/2022 at 6:54 PM, Mic said:

I don't suppose anyone knows the answer to the doctor's question, do they?  My guess is not very many 4 stars and fewer, if any, 5.  Kayvon Thibaduex was a 5-star but he dun gone.

Pretty much all the DBs are four stars at least. I dont know on Gonzalez to be honest... 

 

But Manning was a 4 star (247 5-star), Bridges was a 4 star, Bennett was a 4 star, Stephens 4-star. 

 

The DBs are doing a much better job... They got burned against Colorado because of a major miscommunication which they should fix. 

 

Our biggest problem is the underneath throws... That and getting pressure on the QB. 

[Charles Fischer]

On 11/9/2022 at 7:01 PM, David Marsh said:

I don't know on Gonzalez to be honest... 

A Rivals 4-Star

 

Christian Gonzalez, 2020 Cornerback - Rivals.com

N.RIVALS.COM

---

The definitive source for all Rivals news.

 

[Mic]

Like I said, learning new things every day!  

 

I knew about Manning, and thought possibly Bennett was, but didn't know that Stephens and Bridges were 4-stars, nor Gonzalez (though I think now I did near something about that on tv last game).  Sure glad he was on our side of the ball and not Colorado's last Saturday.  Bet they wish the opposite!

[ABNMoose]

IMHO, Ducks have a high-powered offense, can score quickly, then allows our defense to force the opposing team grind out a score, burning time. Then the offense comes out, scores quickly. Forcing the opposing team to try and grind out a long clock burning drive to (ideally) kick a stalled drive FG. Opposing team staff realizes Oregon can score quickly, but they cannot, mild panic starts to creep in. CDL uses the 8-minute method, starts to cause more panic for opposing team.

 

Opposing team starts airing it out, causing turn overs and punts. Oregon gets the ball, begins its own clock grinding, long TD drive. Realization hits the other team staff and players that FGs and long-time consuming drives will not help. Now Oregon is performing 8-minute drives, burning clock, not trying to score explosively, and the other team realizes...there's no time for us left. I believe there was an article on here explaining it somewhat, but I feel that CDL and Tosh are doing what they can with what they have.

 

Sure, give up 3rd downs, give the other team a little bit of hope...and then snatch it away when they realize they are trading FGs for TDs...which never goes well.

 

I could also be way off in my assessment, which I welcome being corrected.

[Charles Fischer]

On 11/10/2022 at 8:50 AM, ABNMoose said:

I believe there was an article on here explaining it somewhat, but I feel that CDL and Tosh are doing what they can with what they have.

Yes, Post No. 14 above has the link.

[nw777b]

On 11/9/2022 at 5:33 PM, AnotherOD said:

I have never really understood the regular pairing of high powered offenses with "bend but don't break" defenses.

 

Aren't you pretty much assuring your high powered offense spends more time on the sidelines, as your opponent methodically gobbles up yards (and clock)?

 

Aren't you intentionally keeping what you feel is your weaker unit on the field more?

 

If you have the superior offense, why play a game where each team has 7-9 possessions each per game? Wouldn't your offensive superiority be more likely to show itself up in a game with 12-14 possessions each?

 

Let's say your offense is averaging like 3.4 points per drive and your opponent 3.1 points per drive. In an 9 possession game it's an expected 2.7 point advantage, in a 13 possession game, it's a 3.9 point advantage.

 

According to BCS Toys, this year Oregon is averaging 4.12 points per drive (#1) and is giving up 2.35 points per drive (#82). The advantage would seem with the offense on the field.

 

It would be interesting to see a high pressure/shut down defense paired with a high scoring offense. Sure you might give up a few more explosion plays (and scores) but that means you high powered offense is right back on the field (with time on the clock). You might also get more turnovers, 3-and-outs, and short fields - which might regularly break a game open. Once the game is broken open, only then maybe you switch to a "more safe" mode.

 

My guess is maybe many of these coaches play "bend but don't break" because they don't trust their D to play any other way?

Better said than I have tried in the past. Great defenses don't bend.

 

Don't bend and don't break.

 

Bend but don't break gets the defense gassed, especially if the offense goes 3 and out.

[Mic]

On 11/10/2022 at 9:22 AM, nw777b said:

Don't bend and don't break.

 

Bend but don't break gets the defense gassed, especially if the offense goes 3 and out.

Or if the offense scores in 3-4 plays and kicks the ball back to the opponent.  Lanning has taught Oregon how to score quickly when needed, slower when needed.  O is actually winning the Time-of-Possession while blowing out opponents with lightening scores.

[nw777b]

On 11/10/2022 at 9:26 AM, Mic said:

Or if the offense scores in 3-4 plays and kicks the ball back to the opponent.  Lanning has taught Oregon how to score quickly when needed, slower when needed.  O is actually winning the Time-of-Possession while blowing out opponents with lightening scores.

That, too. Good points.

[AnotherOD]

Points per possession is an interesting (newer) stat (as well as points allowed per possession).

 

I'm just wonder if the Duck offense will be:

 

4.25 per possession against defenses ranked 81-131 in points allowed per possession

 

3.25 per possession against teams ranked 25-80 in points allowed per possession

 

2.25 per possession against teams ranked 6-24 in points allowed per possession

 

1.75 per possession against teams ranked 1-5 in points allowed per possession

 

If it's going to be a 10 possession game each against a top defense, that 17.5 points.

 

At that point might you be looking for some D to stay in there?

 

Edited November 10, 2022 by AnotherOD

[lownslowav8r]

I wonder how much the defensive drop off of the reserves factor into this. We often hold opposing offenses down until the subs come in. Look at UCLA which scored two (?) times in garbage time. It seems our defensive starters are pretty solid.
 

Also, our scoring against good defenses has changed for the better as the season has progressed. 

[Feathers]

I think I read somewhere that Oregon is at or near the top in turnover margin.  Is that not at least in part a result of the number of plays run on offense compared to the number of plays defended?  We run fewer plays and have fewer fumbles and interceptions.  Defend more plays and recover more, and pick more.

 

I always am more comfortable winning the takeaway stat.  I seem to recall Aliotti speaking similar words.