Pac 12 Media Deal Losing More Ground

[Babyjesus615]

https://www.si.com/college/usc/football/big-12-totally-out-maneuvered-pac-12-by-getting-early-media-right-deal-done

 

It is sure looking like the Big 12 is trying to get out ahead of the Pac 12 before attempting to poach some schools. Another report has CBS/Turner backing out of Pac 12 negotiations today as well. I sure hope we aren't watching the demise of our conference play out in real time. 

[GeotechDuck]

Yeah...the longer this goes, the more likely that this thing falls apart.  It is pretty clear that the dollars are not lining up right now, or this would have been done already.  Now the conference is grasping at straws (SMU and SDSU) to try and get the numbers up into the ballpark of what Big-12 just signed. 

 

Maybe you can get a short term fix by adding those two schools (and possibly some others), giving them a partial share, and funneling some portion of the money to the existing members.  However, that is a short-term solution that is likely going to create problems down the road when the new schools are up for full shares. 

 

This is my opinion and purely speculation, but my guess is that the current offer was around $25M per school and the conference is now looking at alternative ways to try and get that number closer to $32M, so they don't lose a bunch of schools to the Big-12.  The problem is that they are not a lot of good options left when you are the last one at the table trying to make moves.  Let's hope GK is creative and can find a way to keep this thing together for a few more years.

 

Hopefully Oregon is continuing to weigh all their options because I don't see a favorable outcome in the long term. 

 

 

 

Edited February 15, 2023 by GeotechDuck

[Tandaian]

Pac 12 schools hopping to B12 isn't as simple as people may think.  The new B12 deal brings each school 31.7 million.  I'm not going to assume every Pac 12 school will bring that to the table solo or in combination with a partner school.  There is diminishing returns when adding more schools.   

 

Essentially, each TV station can have up to 4 football games on any given Saturday.  More schools does equal more inventory and more possible combinations of good games, but there does become a time there is too much and they can't do anything with the inventory.

 

Texas, Oklahoma, USC and UCLA are considered "blue blood" schools in football or basketball.  It helps USC and UCLA also have the LA TV market.  Those 4 schools made sense to add to a conference.  I don't feel like any of the remaining Pac 12 or Big 12 schools can be considered in that category.  

[noDucknewby]

Personally I don't think anything has really changed here.  If you consider the source, USC and CBS are both down on the P12 and was Turner ever even a serious consideration?

 

Is there cause for concern?  Absolutely, but is the situation really different than it was a month ago?

 

Yes this thing is dragging on, but there are a lot of moving parts.  We have linear rights, streaming, the P12 Network and expansion all happening (if you believe Wilner) simultaneously.  The B12 just renewed their contract with ESPN after already adding four members, a much simpler process.

 

That said, it sure would be nice if they'd just get the damn thing done.

[Babyjesus615]

I don't envy the position Kliavkoff was put in having to take over after the Larry Scott debacle. But even a guy of his experience/expertise seems to be struggling mightily to get this ship righted.

 

The networks want two Power 5 conferences to drop off and they don't care which ones go. The fact that the Big 12 raced ahead to get their deal done shows that they can see the writing on the wall. All conferences not named Big Ten or SEC are in self preservation mode, and the Pac 12 just can't seem to get enough momentum going to move the needle on a favorable deal.

 

It feels like nearly all of our leveraging ability as a conference is gone. The Big 12 and Big Ten no longer have to hurry. They can sit back and wait for teams to jump ship and run to them. Predatory conferences can offer Pac 12 schools less money than their respective media deals but more than whatever Pac 12 deal materializes. In survival mode, who is going to turn that down?

 

If the Big Ten offers Oregon/Washington a deal in the $40 million range they are gone and soon after the Pac 12.

[Pennsylvania Duck]

PAC-12 REPORTEDLY SUFFERS MAJOR BLOW DURING CHAOTIC MEDIA NEGOTIATIONS

 

There’s been seemingly a never-ending stream of reports about the conference struggling to garner up much interest for a new media rights contract. Now, it sounds like things are about to get much worse.

 

Brett McMurphy reported Wednesday that CBS & Turner are no longer involved in negotiations. That’s significant because it had been previously reported CBS was in the mix to be one of the major networks the PAC-12 could get a deal done with. That is no longer the case.

 

A stunning report from The Athletic indicated the PAC-12’s financial requests could be off by roughly $100 million annually. Commissioner George Kliavkoff reportedly wants annual payouts to be at least $40 million, but the ceiling might only be just north of $30 million.

 

“Today, it’s uncertain whether the Pac-12 will even be able to exceed the $31.6 million average the Big 12 reportedly landed in a six-year extension with ESPN and Fox it reached last fall,” The Athletic reported.

 

PAC-12 Reportedly Suffers Major Blow During Chaotic Media Negotiations

WWW.OUTKICK.COM

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CBS has reportedly dropped out of PAC-12 media negotiations. Will the conference land a new media deal or not?

[lownslowav8r]

On 2/15/2023 at 2:48 PM, Babyjesus615 said:

If the Big Ten offers Oregon/Washington a deal in the $40 million range they are gone and soon after the Pac 12.

That’s not going to happen. The money is not there. Oregon would have to come in as a “junior partner” at a reduced rate probably no more than it can get in the PAC. In addition Oregon would be competing with blue bloods for a spot in the playoffs. Much better off (for now) staying in the PAC. 
 

CBS dropping out could be a sign that negotiations are done and a deal is close. 
 

All these reports are speculation likely fanned by conferences hoping to damage the PAC and “news” sources eagerly looking for clicks. 

 

At this point I’m going to wait for facts. 

Edited February 16, 2023 by lownslowav8r

[McDuck]

On 2/15/2023 at 4:34 PM, lownslowav8r said:

All these reports are speculation likely fanned by conferences hoping to damage the PAC and “news” sources eagerly looking for clicks. 

Do you mean to imply the original linked article, written by a U$C fanboy, may have been biased and paints an unusually grim picture for the Pac?  Do you mean to imply the author may have a bushel of sour grapes to process?

 

If so I completely agree.

[1Ducker1]

Im not worried, the current PAC plus SMU and San Diego St will have a gross viewership market of over 46 million viewers. Somebody is going to pick that up.

Edited February 16, 2023 by 1Ducker1

[HappyToBeADuck]

This may be nothing at all in the long term. CBS and Turner may have been in 3rd or 4th place in the pecking order. 

 

Realizing that ESPN (Primary) and Amazon (Secondary) were in control of the negotiations. And that the left overs werent that enticing to their viewers.

 

My best progessional guess (the one that means nothing) is that the PAC has an over inflated view of its value.  Cal at WSU after dark is not a hot ticket. Or SMU vs Oregon State on Friday night? Will the Phoenix at Bay area fans watch that game? I dont know if I would watch? Maybe?

 

Networks dont pay millions for maybe. Oregon, uw and Utah cannot fill every time slot. Thats not being negative its just a fact .

 

If GK, just like Larry, filled the presidents heads with fantasy numbers that cant be reached then the sooner the better all parties negotiate in the real world.

 

PS: anything that comes from a loser trojan, trojan site or anything from fox, cbs, espn, abc or turner should be taken as something that comes from the southend of a horse heading north.

[Jon Joseph]

All hearsay and BS before a deal is concluded. It's 'stuff' like this that moves the media gotcha needle and that is all.

[GeotechDuck]

On 2/15/2023 at 2:15 PM, Tandaian said:I don't feel like any of the remaining Pac 12 or Big 12 schools can be considered in that category.  

I think the dollars would be there for Oregon (National) Washington (Seattle) and possibly the Arizona (Phoenix) schools.  Phoenix is the 5th largest city in the country now.  
 

The Big-12 has an escalation cause in their new GOR that allows for further expansion.  
 

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. 

[12Duck72]

Excluding the fanboy articles there are a lot of legitimate writers reporting the same thing. Folks can dismiss them as "propaganda" all they want but this is not looking good at all. Personally, I saw this coming all along.

 

This isn't all on GK, this goes back to years of mismanagement of the conference even before Larry Scott. Anyone out there my age remember Tom Hansen? He was just as bad.

 

I see a lot of people claiming there's no way Oregon or the Fuskies join the Big12 or Big 10. Really?

 

If I came on this thread 2 years ago and said USC and UCLA would leave and join a conference that makes no geographical sense at all you would've probably said the same thing.

 

When it comes $$$ and sports nothing is off the table. And I guess it's just a "coincidence" that Yormark does an interview with the 2 biggest PAC 12 honks out there. Yeah, ok. Dude's got a plan

 

If the PAC had such a great deal it already would've been signed by now folks. Now SBJ, is reporting that Amazon only wants 1 game a week. Yikes. Hang on it's going to be a bumpy ride.

 

 

[lownslowav8r]

On 2/16/2023 at 5:46 AM, 12Duck72 said:

Excluding the fanboy articles there are a lot of legitimate writers reporting the same thing. Folks can dismiss them as "propaganda" all they want but this is not looking good at all. Personally, I saw this coming all along

Not sure what is going on. Not sure the writers do either. If Wilner starts echoing what we are hearing elsewhere then I’ll take it seriously. I have found that the sports "news" environment is increasingly dysfunctional as are most "attention driven" businesses such as YouTube, Facebook, …
 

"OMG we/they are doomed," sells clicks. It may, or may not, be true. 
 

As to Oregon/Washington going to another conference…they are in small TV markets and don’t bring enough money to a hungry conference to warrant a large payout. If the PAC is having a hard time getting a good price, then why would Oregon/Washington be worth a great deal more? Some yes, but not as much as Ohio State, USC, or UCLA. At least not to the broadcasters who are paying the bills. 

[McDuck]

I just glanced at FanSided.com criteria for writers, not exactly rigorous IMO.  I bolded the section which explains the dire nature of many of the "articles".

 

We are looking for contributors in all areas, but we are particularly interested in writers interested in covering Daily Fantasy sports (NFL, College, Golf, Racing, MMA), MMA, soccer and NASCAR.

 

FS.com contributors should possess the following skills:

 

-Strong knowledge of NFL, College Football, NASCAR, NBA, NHL, MLB, Fantasy Sports and/or television/entertainment

-Enjoys writing quickly in order cover breaking news

 

-Can react quickly and apply opinions and context to breaking news

 

-Ability to “move the conversation forward” by providing “hot takes” on the sports and entertainment stories of the day (Example: “Geno Smith Injury: 5 reasons the Jets are better off with Fitzpatrick”

 

Contributors are paid via revenue share on the page views their posts bring in to FS.com during any given month. The rate for contributors is $1 per 1k pageviews.

[Tandaian]

Any TV media company should assume Oregon gets the Portland market, which is 21.  TV viewership backs up PDX watches Oregon football.  Seattle is number 12.  Seattle would be the 5th biggest market by school in the B1G TEN after LA joins the group.  Portland would be the 7th biggest TV market.  

 

B1G TEN TV markets

#1 NY - Rutgers

#2 LA

#3 Chicago - Illinois, Northwestern

#4 Philly - Penn St.

#14 Minneapolis - Minnesota

#15 Detroit - Michigan

#25 Indianapolis - Indiana/Purdue

#28 Baltimore - Maryland

#33 Columbus - tOSU

#68 Iowa City/Des Moines - Iowa

#72 Lincoln/Omaha - Nebraska

#81 Madison - Wisconsin

#115 East Lansing - MSU

 

TV Media companies have a weird formula.

[lownslowav8r]

I think for Oregon/Washington it also comes down to “how much does moving to a new conference cost us” and “what are our chances of getting to the playoffs and the money/visibility that comes from being there.”  
 

If we do go to a new conference I really doubt it will be at 100% of what other teams are getting. Is that substantially better than the payoff they will get in the PAC?

 

Rumors aside, we don’t know yet. 
 

We also know from past history that teams that moved to a geographical distant conference (which also means different culture and values) have not done well. 

[CalBear95]

TBH, as I’ve watched this unfold I am now at the point where I keep hoping to read the Four Corner schools are leaving for the B12.  
 

I grew up with the PAC and I love it dearly but someone needs to put it out of its misery 

 

When you are talking about adding the #6 school in Dallas for expansion you are desperate.  
 

When your only hope of making any kind of per school payout that matches the B12 is to move most of your games to Amazon, you are desperate 

 

When ESPN is the only linear network that will pay you but only at a reduced price and only to have you fill the dreaded 10:30 EST time slot, you are in real, real trouble 

 

The issue isn’t they money per se.  If you could stay in the PAC and get the same payout you would get if you went to the B12, go to the B12.  
 

The PAC’s liability has *always* been time zone.  We are on after most of the country has gone to bed.  So, the moves the conference are looking to make in many ways makes that problem far worse 

 

An SEC or BIG can move streaming to mainstream.  The PAC lacks the brand pull. 
 

The B12 out maneuvered the PAC.  They are up the rest of the linear dollars and the PAC is now left with sub-prime quality scraps.  
 

Oregon will suffer under this model.  No star recruits are likely going to want to play for a school that is in TV oblivion.  
 

Again, not all money is created equal.  The B12’s per school is more valuable than the PAC’s even if they are the same  number 
 

The PAC is zombie and someone needs to end it

Edited February 16, 2023 by CalBear95

[Jon Joseph]

SI?  This same story has not been published well over 100 times. 

 

No team is leaving the Pac-10 for the B12 before the Pac-10 deal is done. Even if the deal comes in a few million lower per annum than the Pac-10 deal that does not mean teams are going to automatically depart the Pac-10. 

 

This kind of stuff will circulate daily until the Pac-10 deal is concluded. What else is there to talk about CFB-wise this time of year?

[GODUCKS15]

Click bait.

[Charles Fischer]

On 2/16/2023 at 9:38 AM, CalBear95 said:

 

The PAC is zombie and someone needs to end it

We heard from so many on this forum eight months ago how the portal and NIL would be the death of college football and Oregon...yet the Ducks are now winning in them.

 

Let's not do a post-mortem until the patient is dead.  As for Oregon?

 

[12Duck72]

On 2/16/2023 at 8:56 AM, lownslowav8r said:

Not sure what is going on. Not sure the writers do either. If Wilner starts echoing what we are hearing elsewhere then I’ll take it seriously. I have found that the sports "news" environment is increasingly dysfunctional as are most "attention driven" businesses such as YouTube, Facebook, …
 

 

I get what you're saying Iowns, and look I'm no media apologist at all, there's a reason why most Americans don't trust the news anymore. But when you hear the same story from different sources are they all wrong and just looking for clicks?

 

I'll respectfully disagree with people about Wilner and Canzano also for that matter. I like reading some of JW's stuff but if you're talking about having an agenda you have to include those 2 as well.

 

Only people in the room know what's happening agreed, but the fact that this is dragging on is not a good sign.

[noDucknewby]

On 2/16/2023 at 1:13 PM, 12Duck72 said:

I get what you're saying Iowns, and look I'm no media apologist at all, there's a reason why most Americans don't trust the news anymore. But when you hear the same story from different sources are they all wrong and just looking for clicks?

 

I'll respectfully disagree with people about Wilner and Canzano also for that matter. I like reading some of JW's stuff but if you're talking about having an agenda you have to include those 2 as well.

 

Only people in the room know what's happening agreed, but the fact that this is dragging on is not a good sign.

The only real source here is Brett McMurphy, though I do believe he is credible.  Everyone else is pretty much quoting him and drawing their own conclusions and/or trying to advance their own agenda.

 

This saga reminds me a bit of the Texas/Oklahoma to the P12 article written by Chip Brown in Larry Scott's early tenure.  There were dozens of articles essentially saying the same thing, but they were all quoting Chip Brown.  Guess what, he was wrong and so was everone else who sourced him.

 

Wilner and Canzano are pretty well connected and like you I don't always agree with them, but they usually have their facts straight IMHO.

 

 

 

 

[GeotechDuck]

It is amazing the amount of mistakes the conference has made in the last 13 years. I saw this timeline on social media. The conference had so many opportunities to take advantage and stay relevant.  Any of these moves probably would have saved the conference. 
 

Jan 2010: The Conference of Champions, highly respected and in a position of power announces the formation of expansion committee

 

Sept 2010: Narrowly miss on signing TX, OU, TX Tech, OK St, and A&M when A&M backs out at the 11th hour

Sept 2011: Decline to accept TX into the Pac-12 due to LHN

 

Sept 2011: Reject OU & OK State's application for admission w/o TX

 

Aug 2021:  Decline to extend invitations to TCU, Baylor, & TX Tech after the schools asked for a lifeline. 

 

June 2022:  USC & UCLA announce they're leaving the Pac-12 and the conference is blindsided. 

 

Feb 2023:  Dragging their feet but needing to invite G5s San Diego St & SMU to keep the conference alive for a few more years. 

[BYUTexan]

On 2/16/2023 at 4:02 PM, GeotechDuck said:

It is amazing the amount of mistakes the conference has made in the last 13 years. I saw this timeline on social media. The conference had so many opportunities to take advantage and stay relevant.  Any of these moves probably would have saved the conference. 
 

Jan 2010: The Conference of Champions, highly respected and in a position of power announces the formation of expansion committee

 

Sept 2010: Narrowly miss on signing TX, OU, TX Tech, OK St, and A&M when A&M backs out at the 11th hour

Sept 2011: Decline to accept TX into the Pac-12 due to LHN

 

Sept 2011: Reject OU & OK State's application for admission w/o TX

 

Aug 2021:  Decline to extend invitations to TCU, Baylor, & TX Tech after the schools asked for a lifeline. 

 

June 2022:  USC & UCLA announce they're leaving the Pac-12 and the conference is blindsided. 

 

Feb 2023:  Dragging their feet but needing to invite G5s San Diego St & SMU to keep the conference alive for a few more years. 

Turning their noses up at (and snubbing) BYU didn't help either.  

Edited February 17, 2023 by BYUTexan

[Babyjesus615]

If our media deal comes in at the $30 million range per school I am confident the 4 corner schools bolt. That would likely mean ESPN forced the conference to accept a relatively lowball offer coupled with whatever Amazon brings to the table.

 

There isn't a scenario, in my opinion, where we go over $35 mil per school. We lost out on a ton of credibility when we passed on TCU, Texas, and Oklahoma. Our bargaining position is more or less doing whatever we can to stave off being poached.

 

A "Coastal Conference" alignment with the ACC would give us the standing of highest academic prowess of any conference not named the Ivy League. It would give us east coast time slots for games and force people to watch us. 

 

If there is a lifeline floating around I believe that is the only and most lucrative option.

[McDuck]

On 2/16/2023 at 5:17 PM, Babyjesus615 said:

If our media deal comes in at the $30 million range per school I am confident the 4 corner schools bolt. That would likely mean ESPN forced the conference to accept a relatively lowball offer coupled with whatever Amazon brings to the table.

Why would they leave?  Do they have sufficient media value to increase the Big 12 package?

 

From the Des Moines Register looking at Iowa State finances.  I suspect this is a bit more accurate than a random blogger and they say $31 million.

 

The Big 12’s new television contract is expected to be worth an average of $31 million per year to each school over its six years. The current deal pays an approximate average of $28 million per year per school. 

 

 

Iowa State University athletics department reports record revenue

WWW.DESMOINESREGISTER.COM

---

Iowa State reports $111 million in athletics revenue in fiscal year 2022 after a $17 million deficit in FY2021.

 

 

[lownslowav8r]

Many of the PACs decisions/mistakes were driven by USC (sometimes in conjunction with other schools). Without USC with their narrow self-interest and backstabbing driving things my hope is the decision making will improve. 

[lownslowav8r]

Here is what Stewart Mandel is saying about the 4-corners schools moving. Behind paywall so I copied an excerpt. He is saying, "nope."
 

"Do you believe the Pac-12 is in trouble by allowing the Big 12 to sign their media rights deal first? — Michael D., Salt Lake City, Utah

 

It depends on what you mean by “trouble.”

 

As we reported last week, Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark getting that league’s deal done a year earlier than expected — at a reported $31.6 million per school — has put an unofficial ceiling on what the Pac-12 can get. Part of that is it may have eliminated one key bidder. After locking in the Big 12, Fox doesn’t have much need for the Pac-12. In fact, this may be the rare instance in realignment where basketball made a difference. Big 12 men’s hoops, with recent national champs Kansas and Baylor, and recent Final Four entrants Texas Tech and Houston, has value. Pac-12 men’s hoops, with Arizona as its only real brand once UCLA exits, has next-to-no value.

 

But also, even after the L.A. schools’ defections, Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff was telling folks he could get something north of $40 million per school. That may have always been unrealistic, but it certainly is now given the Big 12’s $31.6 million number. Pac-12 football without USC and UCLA is not decidedly more valuable than Big 12 football without Oklahoma and Texas.

 

So that’s problematic.

 

But if you’re asking what I think you’re asking — are a bunch of Pac-12 schools about to defect to the Big 12? — I’ve heard nothing to suggest that’s happening. According to many sources at many different Pac-12 schools, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado still believe they’re better off in the Pac-12, so long as the math makes sense. While Kliavkoff’s deal may wind up a disappointment based on his initial inflated expectations, one AD told me it’s still likely to be “north” of $31.6 million (though I assume not by much).

Edited February 17, 2023 by lownslowav8r

[HappyToBeADuck]

So many interesting takes on this thread. The potential or lack of potential for the PAC media deal appears to have set off a flurry of oponions and feelings toward the unknown.

 

What i find interesting is the outcome could be any of those presented within the ODB Forum.  Nonetheless we have no outcome, yet!

 

Looking in the rear view mirror, perhaps the PAC Unity Statement was posted knowing the rumors would fly once the CBS/Turner drop out would leak out.

 

The anticipation is telling and its not unreasonable to want a resolution. As soon as realization sinks in for the 10 presidents, well we might get a deal. However, i dont blame GK for pursueing every option. I refuse to shoot the messenger when options fall by the wayside.

 

I do find it interesting how pundits, writers and usc jack wipes sing the praises of the BIG 12 media deal. They supposedly beat the PAC to a deal and left no money for the PAC!

 

So the BIG 12 added 4 new schools to replace their 2 traitors. They now have a foot print in 3 time zones. They landed a big $2.6 billion dollar deal. Yet, if you read the original article, in this thread, each school will take home only $3 million dollars more a season. WOW! Only the weak minded, with absolutely no bluebloods in the conference would crow about that.  GEEZ! WTH!

 

Why, and I ask why would the 4 corner schools jump for that? Would you? Patience, patience and more patience. ESPN made a low ball offer and sooner or later in the ink will dry on that contract.

 

If no other bidders generate revenue then anything can happen and the fur will fly!

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/16/2023 at 5:46 AM, 12Duck72 said:

Excluding the fanboy articles there are a lot of legitimate writers reporting the same thing. Folks can dismiss them as "propaganda" all they want but this is not looking good at all. Personally, I saw this coming all along.

 

This isn't all on GK, this goes back to years of mismanagement of the conference even before Larry Scott. Anyone out there my age remember Tom Hansen? He was just as bad.

 

I see a lot of people claiming there's no way Oregon or the Fuskies join the Big12 or Big 10. Really?

 

If I came on this thread 2 years ago and said USC and UCLA would leave and join a conference that makes no geographical sense at all you would've probably said the same thing.

 

When it comes $$$ and sports nothing is off the table. And I guess it's just a "coincidence" that Yormark does an interview with the 2 biggest PAC 12 honks out there. Yeah, ok. Dude's got a plan

 

If the PAC had such a great deal it already would've been signed by now folks. Now SBJ, is reporting that Amazon only wants 1 game a week. Yikes. Hang on it's going to be a bumpy ride.

 

 

No offense but many, many of us have seen this coming from far away. I'm waiting on the FACTS. The deal GK cables together may be grim but negative speculation is not going to make the final deal any better or worse.

[NJDuck]

 

If you get past all that is being said, even Dennis Dodd is saying most likely ESPN/Amazon will be who the Pac'12 will sign a media deal with.  This is also what Canzano is saying.  CBS/Turner were never ever serious contenders.  Sad to understand though why the Pac12's ineptness to make crucial decisions at the most opportunistic time is beyond reasoning.  But it is what it is at this point.  Hopefully soon will know what that media deal will wind up being.

 

No matter what happens with the Pac-12, I am trusting Oregon along with Phil Knight will make the best decision for Oregon moving forward. 

 

Will the Pac-12 break up? Where each team would go if league disintegrates over media rights deal

 

By Dennis Dodd

 

 

 

Will the Pac-12 break up? Where each team would go if league disintegrates over media rights deal - CBSSports.com

WWW.CBSSPORTS.COM

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What's ahead for the Pac-12 -- and college football -- if its top remaining teams depart?

 

 

[CalBear95]

I read somewhere that the B12 media agreement has a pre-set escalator for new members at something like 66% of the current per school payout.  For easy math let's call that $20MM.  So, in theory, that is the number the new media agreement for the PAC would need to clear (I suspect the B12 would try and re-open for the really big PAC schools but let's just assume that never happens).

 

I'll go with the optimism that the new deal comes in at around $30MM per school.  So, I don't think the B12 money is going to be a hard problem to solve for schools who are worried about that particular component.

 

But I am reeeeeeeaaaaallllly queasy about what that deal really offers.  First, Amazon isn't looking for tonnage, they are looking for the best games (a sports media expert was on a prominent journalist's podcast talking about this issue and how the current willingness to spend has changed from 3.5 months ago).  We already know that Fox is set (happy to buy for pennies in dollar), and ESPN is only looking only for the 4th window.  Amazon isn't going to pay a premium without a healthy lineup of premium games.  

 

That means a lot of the best PAC games will be available on a streaming-only basis.  Ring a bell?

 

To me (and this is just me) this has shades of the dreaded Larry Scott PAC 12 Network theory of the case.  That was a disaster and laid the seeds for the uncertainty of today.  I understand that a heavy reliance on streaming for distribution is only a decision of last resort given how cornered the PAC is at the moment.  But that doesn't change that fact that for the big programs, it is a (I think) huge risk.

 

I think of it this way.  The risk of streaming is that your visibility drops significantly relative to linear, and as well know all too well, visibility/profile is a really big part of a team's value.  Why? Low visibility makes it harder to attract good recruits and coaches.  That in turn erodes the current state of your program, momentum that can be hard and/or lengthy to arrest once it starts.  For Oregon and UW, that is pretty big downside risk.

 

So, what is the upside?  You make probably, at most, $10MM-$15MM more per year for 5 years and your travel schedule is more manageable (not an insignificant thing obviously).  There is no first mover advantage for the PAC in betting a lot of their visibility on streaming so that $10MM-$15MM is the *maximum* revenue upside. 

 

If the Dawgs and Ducks had to hole up in the B12 for 4-5 years, then the cost/headache to travel isn't all that much of an issue.

 

Add it up and I am not in any way thrilled with the idea of tying myself to a 5–6-year deal with such a heavy reliance on streaming for distribution.  For all the money the Ducks have invested in football you would be wagering all of that for an extra $50MM-$75MM over, say, a 5-year period.  I am just not getting enough to make that kind of bet IMO.

 

If I were the leadership for the Ducks and Dawgs, I would insist on getting a buyout schedule upfront that declined by each year and was executable after year 1.  If the networks needed to void the deal in the event of those teams leaving, I would force GK to give that to the media rights buyer(s).

 

The PAC has been around 107 years.  It's all I have ever known, and I am quite sad and dismayed to see it in its current state.  But as a Duck or Dawg alum, I can't imagine that affinity for the PAC is greater than that of your team.  GK is asking some premier members to take a massive leap of faith with streaming.  If that bet goes bad, you don't want to be locked into that deal until 2029/30.

 

And I don't know if there is any 'wait and see' on the financials.  We know the deal is at best in the mid-30s.  We know it will have a heavy streaming-only component. 

 

If you knew that the deal looked like the above, what would you do?

 

 

Edited February 17, 2023 by CalBear95

[Duckhart]

Its to bad that the B12 and Pac couldn't merge into a super conference as that's the way it will probably end up in 5 years or so anyway.

[Dave23]

On 2/17/2023 at 4:13 PM, CalBear95 said:

The risk of streaming is that your visibility drops significantly relative to linear, and as well know all too well, visibility/profile is a really big part of a team's value.  Why? Low visibility makes it harder to attract good recruits and coaches.

I tend to disagree with this primis as I know almost no one under 45 years old that has a problem with streaming. Do the Ducks even have a coach over 45 years old? Recruits on the East Coast will actually have an easier time catching a PAC 12 game on Amazon as they will not be starting the game at 11pm. 

 

I know a lot of people are scared of streaming because thursday night NFL viewership was down. The NFL network wasn't exactly crushing it the first year they broadcasted as it was the first NFL games not on a locally broadcasted station. You had to have a good sports package and cable, the only place I could watch was at a bar.

 

Recruits will definitely not be a problem a majority of them probably already have Amazon Prime and know how to use it. The stats on households that have Prime are a little all over but it from as low as 62% to as high as 85%. I betting parents in there 40's with teenagers definitely have Prime.

 

Viewership will lag for a year or two but then it will fast surpass cable. According to Statistica only 46% of people under 49 get tv via traditional means, that rate gets lower the younger the viewer.

 

I know a lot of people don't want to stream games but if it's the only option and your teams playing you'll figure it out.

[duck023]

I've said for 10 years that Pac 12 needed to make it easier on their teams to run the table. There are still people that argue with me about this. When your conference is known for not making the playoffs something is wrong especially if ACC and Conference USA teams are making it.

[NJDuck]

 

Pac-12 Football: Where each team could land if conference breaks up

DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM

---

The Pac-12 may sign a new media rights deal and start to thrive. If not, though, these teams could be on the move.

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/19/2023 at 12:51 PM, NJDuck said:

 

Pac-12 Football: Where each team could land if conference breaks up

DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM

---

The Pac-12 may sign a new media rights deal and start to thrive. If not, though, these teams could be on the move.

 

Dennis Dodd is working hard to destroy the Pac-10 while lauding the B12. This is just more male bovine excrement before GK closes the new media deal.

[GODUCKS15]

As Jim Morrison said “The future is uncertain but the end is always near.” Eventually this media deal will come to fruition even though we have no clue what that will be. 

[Charles Fischer]

Well, I can make a prediction that has high probability; it will be both TV and streaming, and the amount will be not only come up short, but far behind what the SEC and B1G will pay their schools--especially four years from now.

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/19/2023 at 1:35 PM, GODUCKS15 said:

As Jim Morrison said “The future is uncertain but the end is always near.” Eventually this media deal will come to fruition even though we have no clue what that will be. 

We're all waiting for the media deal music to be over so we can turn out the light on the conference not holding together.

 

Pac-10 schools will not be running out of Doors.

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/19/2023 at 2:01 PM, Charles Fischer said:

Well, I can make a prediction that has high probability; it will be both TV and streaming, and the amount will be not only unsatisfactory, but far behind what the SEC and B1G will pay their schools--especially four years from now.

 

The CAT is back! EXCELLENT!