OregonDucks

Interesting prediction. My thoughts: 1) The author assumes that the existing member of the B1G, SEC and Big-12 will still be there in the end. I’m not sure that is a safe bet, as there are some pretty crappy teams remaining that don’t add much value (e.g., Iowa State). There is no way that Miami and Cal get left out in favor of some of those other schools, IMO. 2) The newly formed Big -12 is clearly a step below the new B1G and SEC. I don’t see them getting an automated bid to the playoffs. 3) Why should the B1G and SEC stop at 20 teams? Why not cherry pick the best programs from all of the conferences, break away from the NCAA and just have each league’s champions face one another for the championship?

I like the out of box thinking. However. I’m sure that Phil Knight and the powers that be want to compete for national championships with all that they have invested in Oregon over the past few decades. This would be essentially throwing in the towel.

I believe that there are 2 options with the ACC (which I believe has better programs than the Big 12): 1) Form a true partnership or merge with the conference. The winner of the East division could play the winner of the West division for the championship, and hopefully a spot in the playoffs. 2) Poach the best teams from the ACC, Big 12 and PAC to form a new conference. This would be harder but not impossible. It would likely require working with the ACC’s current TV partner (ESPN).

If you read some of the Tweets and articles, the PAC-12 is as good as dead. Kliavkoff is the captan of a sinking ship.

Hopefully the B1G commissioner has an end game in mind with conference expansion. If certain schools fit within that vision and are available now, it makes no sense to wait. You run the risk of those programs being tied down financially in the future with new conference/TV exit penalties. Oregon should reach out to the SEC, if the B1G is not going to expand further, at this time, assuming we haven’t already. We cannot wait for something that may or may not happen years from now.

If he were smart, he would be talking to the biggest programs left in the PAC-10 to understand their wishes and desires for the future of the conference and what it would take for them to stay. Oregon should have been his first call, IMO.

Another potential option may be for UCLA and Cal to have coaches be private employees, with salaries and benefits paid for by donors.

That's assuming that the B1G wouldn't proceed with Oregon and Washington, or some other combination of schools. Oregon would be invited to an expanded Big 12, if it wanted to be. I hope that we wait and explore other, more ambitious options, first, as I don't think that a Big 12/Pac-10 merger moves the needle.

Overall, I agree with your post, Duck Fan 76. Below are some of the questions I have re: Southern California recruiting: 1) How important is it for football recruits to play in front of family and friends once a year (note: we heard the same doom and gloom predictions when the Pac-12 split into north and south divisions, and Oregon's recruiting has never been stronger)? If it's critical, how will this impact USC and UCLA's recruiting in neighboring states (e.g., Arizona)? 2) Are Southern California kids going to want to travel 4-5 hours to play night games in the snow (e.g., Penn State in November)? 3) This now opens the door to Ohio State, Michigan and other B1G schools. Is this a bigger recruiting battle vs. the current Pac-12 schools? 4) How does USC's recruiting look if they are a mediocre B1G team? Oregon should continue to be fine in recruiting, as long as we keep winning and there is an opportunity to compete for national championships. Luckily, we have a strong brand and donors with deep pockets who are invested in the program's success.

I would have to believe that ESPN would be very interested in trying to counter Fox/B1G's latest move. Is it really in Fox and ESPN's best interest to have two super conferences (i.e., bargaining power of suppliers)? It would be a bidding war for those conferences TV rights vs. having more options.

Good point. The focus of these conversations seems to be strictly on media market size, except when talking about Notre Dame, for some reason.

As I mentioned in my other post, I hope that the Pac-10 would explore a merger or an agreement with the ACC before the Big-12, as I believe that the top teams are stronger in football (e.g., Clemson, Florida State, Miami, Virginia Tech) and in basketball (e.g., North Carolina, Duke, Virginia).

No, but that's intentional.

At first, I thought that joining the B1G (or SEC) was a must but after reading more posts on OBD and other forums, I’m not sure that that is the way to go if Oregon’s long-term goal is to win a national championship in football. As Duck 1972 pointed out, top teams who have joined the Big-10, SEC, Pac-12 and other conferences have not had much success (e.g., Nebraska, Colorado, Texas A&M, Penn State). USC has not been good since Pete Carroll left. They get more money by joining the B1G but traded Oregon for Ohio State. Does anyone think that USC’s road to the playoffs got easier? My new ranking for Oregon would be: 1 Try to form a 3rd super conference with the top programs of the ACC, Big-12 and Pac-10. Some combination of Clemson, Florida State, Miami, NC, Duke, VT, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Oregon, Washington, Cal, Stanford, Arizona, etc. We could approach the ACC's existing TV partner to see if they would work with us. 2 Create a real alliance/merger with the ACC. We could keep the existing Pac-10 intact and look to add a few teams. The winner of the ACC could play the winner of the Pac for the championship of the combined league. This game could rival the B1G or SEC's championship game (e.g., Clemson vs. Oregon) and position the winner for an automatic bid into the college football playoffs. 3 Join the B1G. If you believe that super conferences are inevitable this option would be on top of the list, assuming you cannot make #1 happen. However, the existing playoff system would need to change. For example, the winner of the B1G play the winner of the SEC for the national championship. 4 Look to expand the Pac-10 and/or look to merge with the Big-12. This and the ACC option above would likely be temporary options until the B1G and SEC are ready to expand to 20+ teams. 5 Go independent. I think that this will be harder going forward with the super conferences, as the top teams will not want to schedule an Oregon in addition to their grueling conference schedule.

Be careful what you wish for? I would have felt much more comfortable facing Nick Saban's Alabama with Chip Kelly's innovative offense. Not so much now. Hopefully Dan Lanning will get Oregon's defense rolling and the team ready to compete again with the Alabama's of the world!

What is Oregon's best option to compete for college football national championships over the long-term, and why?

Given the above, there have been talks for years about Oregon going private. If the State of Oregon legislators attempt to thwart Oregon's attempt to join another conference. I wonder if these conversations will accelerate. Perhaps the wealthy donors will open the checkbooks to make this happen...

I hope that Oregon is also consulting Bob Thompson, a University of Oregon graduate, and the former president of Fox Sports Networks. Conference expansion is all about $$$ and Thompson knows a thing or two about TV. Oregon has to do what is in Oregon's best long-term interest.