Oregon Ducks Favored by 21 Points Against Colorado: Too High?

[cartm25]

Seems too high to me.

 

The Ducks haven’t given Colorado any bulletin board material, but Vegas was happy to oblige.

 

What team is better, Colorado or Texas Tech?

 

I’d put my money on Colorado against TT; Sanders appears to be a far superior QB to Shough, and that’s more than half the battle.

 

I think the Ducks are in for a battle.

[Log Haulin]

On 9/20/2023 at 5:43 PM, cartm25 said:

Seems too high to me.

 

The Ducks haven’t given Colorado any bulletin board material, but Vegas was happy to oblige.

 

What team is better, Colorado or Texas Tech?

 

I’d put my money on Colorado against TT; Sanders appears to be a far superior QB to Shough, and that’s more than half the battle.

 

I think the Ducks are in for a battle.

Yea but the other half+ of the battle is in the trenches. Tech smokes Buffs at LOS. Ducks cover.

[The Kamikaze Kid]

WSU destroyed CSU on the road. So would TT. So would UO. Ducks cover.

[Jon Joseph]

According to ESPN''s College Football Live betting guru, covering the -21 will be easy peasy.  He has the Ducks -21 and predicts an easy cover. I am down on Puddles at -19.5 so I love this prediction. Puddles my fine feathered friend, do more push-ups!

 

BTW. I am a sorry one game under .500 for the season. But better than ESPN's other gaming guru, Stanford Steve. But I should be better. I went to a better college than Steveo. (Yuck, Yuck!)

Edited September 21, 2023 by Jon Joseph

[Charles Fischer]

On 9/20/2023 at 5:43 PM, cartm25 said:

What team is better, Colorado or Texas Tech?

Texas Tech by a mile, IMHO.

 

They could still win the Big-12...

[Pennsylvania Duck]

Bettors all in on Deion Sanders, Shedeur Sanders, Colorado vs. Oregon

 

For three weeks now, Coach Prime and his 19th-ranked Colorado Buffaloes have been at the center of the college football betting universe.

 

What's been even more striking is that action on Colorado has been outstripping betting on the large majority of NFL teams.

 

Going into the college football Week 4 odds market, Colorado is a three-touchdown underdog at No. 10 Oregon, but that isn't stopping the Colorado bets from coming in.

 

Public/recreational bettors seem to see it as a challenge, if not a dare. So they're punching their tickets once again on the Deion Sanders Express.

 

BetMGM senior trader Cameron Drucker and professional bettor Paul Stone provide their insights on the college football betting-palooza that is currently the Colorado Buffaloes...

 

Bettors all in on Deion Sanders, Shedeur Sanders, Colorado vs. Oregon

WWW.FOXSPORTS.COM

---

Bettors can't get enough of Colorado, despite the team being close to a three-touchdown underdog to Oregon this weekend. And the...

 

 

[Mic]

I offer my wisdom on this matter;  DUNNO.  

 

I should think O can more than cover - but Colorado can be explosive in an area where O is sometimes vulnerable.  Also, gamblers are savvy creatures - betting agencies aren't often wrong - or at least not very wrong.  I'll be happy with a convincing win.

[Desert Duck]

On paper, 21 points is about right. 

 

"On paper."

[DUCati855]

I feel 21 is low.

Colorado barely squeaked by CSU at home.

That same CSU team was blown out by WSU on their own turf.

I just hope Autzen is rockin'. If it is... Colorado will be exposed. Ducks win BIG!

[Dave23]

On 9/21/2023 at 9:28 AM, Mic said:

I offer my wisdom on this matter;  DUNNO.  

 

I should think O can more than cover - but Colorado can be explosive in an area where O is sometimes vulnerable.  Also, gamblers are savvy creatures - betting agencies aren't often wrong - or at least not very wrong.  I'll be happy with a convincing win.

I feel the same way, Oregon should cover but if coach Prime comes up with a great game plan this could come down to the wire and a one score game. The other thing that could go wrong is Oregon gets way too many penalties.

Edited September 21, 2023 by Dave23

[mikethehiker]

Indirect comparisons can be fun predictors for Saturday's outcome and we do have a few clues.

 

I think the key to all of our clues is Wyoming who appears to have a solid team if you ask Texas Tech and Texas.  Wyoming competed at the LOS in both of those contests with the following rushing yard comparisons:

• 171-93 vs. Texas Tech
• 155-185 vs. Texas

Oregon's win against Texas Tech will look better as the season rolls along and Tech's loss to Wyoming will look understandable.  Shoot Wyoming hung with Texas in Austin for 3 quarters who had just beaten Alabama.  Texas Tech is a more complete team than Colorado and so is Washington State (as shown against Colorado St.).

 

Colorado had a gutsy win against TCU (no doubt) who had nothing really to scout with the Coach Sanders makeover.  However, Nebraska (who cannot complete a vertical pass) outrushed Colorado 222 - 58.  I expect to see similar stats for Oregon Saturday, unless QB Sanders decides to take off more often (Shough had 101 of Tech's 174 yards against us).

 

This game should be sponsored by Tostitos with all the chips we'll see on shoulders of players and coaches.  Colorado will fight hard, but Oregon will cover at home.  Too much talent and the Ducks will be very motivated for this one.

[OhioDuck]

I think the Ducks cover or at least come close.

 

Buffs are not sneaking up on anyone now for one.

 

The last two weeks their competition has not been great and they have not exactly smoked teams they should have.

 

While they have some dynamic play makers, Oregon is a step up on a talent level that I'm not sure Colorado is ready for. That will lead to mistakes and they already made plenty against CSU.

If Oregon takes advantage of those mistakes it could get ugly, early.

 

I also don't think they have faced an offense with the combination of ability to pound you with the run and explosive passing game that Oregon has. 

But honestly every offense they have played against so far has looked explosive, maybe a comment on the Colorado defense.

[Log Haulin]

Coach Sanders is an excellent leader. His players respond at a hight level for him. As coach "Prime" goes, so does his team.

 

That said, Sanders knows he doesn't have the dogs Oregon has. He also knows Ducks have and excellent staff headed by Dan Lanning.

 

No matter how much Deion tries to hid it, he knows. And as a result, his players know. 

 

As goes Deion so go the Buffaloes

[DuckFan93]

I think Shedeur presents a similar threat as Pennix as he is very elusive and good passer.   The key will be how well OBD D contains him.   Our offense should be able to keep up for sure, but so can theirs if our D gets sloppy and doesn't finish tackles.

 

If I could bet (unfortunately can't do that in Oregon), I would take the under.   I think we will end up winning, by only by 7-14 points.

[Whiskey Duck]

I guess I'm the contrarian here. I think the spread is too high. Sanders gets the ball out quickly and they definitely have playmakers on offense. I'm also not sure we have our penalty problems under control. I expect a dog fight. 

[NJDuck]

 

247Sports Analysts Predict Final Score Of Oregon vs. Colorado

 

As a result, analysts appear more than convinced that Oregon is going to wipe the floor with their Pac-12 rivals. In a feature for 247Sports, college football analysts Chris Hummer and Brad Crawford both picked the Ducks to win the game and cover the spread.

Hummer predicts Oregon will win 45-21:

I’ve been wrong about Colorado every week. I’m 0-3 ATS and 1-2 straight up when picking those games. So, I don’t recommend you follow me here as I pick Oregon to win and cover. But here’s my reasoning: Oregon is an elite offense. Colorado, especially after Travis Hunter left the game with a multi-week injury, got carved up last week by Colorado State. I think the Ducks are going to have a ton of success on offense and what has been a good Oregon secondary slows down Shedeur Sanders enough to cover that number. … Oregon 45, Colorado 21.

Crawford projects a similar outcome, anticipating that they'll go blow for blow early before Oregon pulls away late in a 52-30 win:

Laying three touchdowns against an offense led by Shedeur Sanders is dangerous, but the loss of Travis Hunter is going to hurt Colorado, especially this week. The Buffaloes aren't going to be able to match the Ducks score for score, which is likely what it'll take to win at Autzen Stadium. Oregon covers with a couple fourth-quarter touchdowns in a game that's exciting at least for the first half. ... Oregon 52, Colorado 30.

https://thespun.com/more/top-stories/247sports-analysts-predict-final-score-of-oregon-vs-colorado

[Charles Fischer]

This is a great preview for how the new, improved defensive backfield. If we do well in this game, as I anticipate, it will bode very well with the rest of Conference play.

 

I thought the Hawaii game would be that indicator, but I think their receivers are much slower than what we will see in conference play.

[HappyToBeADuck]

Just a personal observation by myself and as my fiesty wife has mentioned to me over the decades. 

 

"When did i give you the impression that your observation or opinion mattered?" She's so awesome.....

 

So based on that pisitive reinforcement, here goes.

 

Ask yourself are the Buffs a better team now than they were against TCU? There performance at home against CSU says they are not. CSU gave that game away with mistakes and penalties.

 

With Hunter out, no next man up will fill that loss of an NFL caliber player.

 

Ask yourself are the Ducks a better team now than they were against TT? This game is the next yardstick in measuring and answering that question.

 

Feels like they have improved on the defensive side of the ball. Pressure and better coverage. Is it improved enough to contain a future NFL QB. We shall see.

 

The offense, with Bo and all the talent is as good as any top team in the counry.

 

The Ducks should score points on every possession unless they committ penalties and play outcof control.

 

Should be 59-24 Duck win.

 

Only the Ducks can keep the Buffs in this game......

 

Go Ducks..........

[Solar]

If I were a actual bettor, I would not touch this game with a 10 foot pole.

 

It seems far more likely for it to end up tied or losing at the end of regulation than for Oregon to win by 42, but probabilities are nonlinear so that is irrelevant.

 

Colorado appears to do better away than home, and they will compete for 4 quarters, if I was forced to chose, I would pick Colorado at -21.

 

 

Edited September 21, 2023 by Solar

[Desert Duck]

TCU, who I argue is rather average this year, still hung 42 points on CU, while committing slightly more than average penalty yards, giving up -1 TO, and managed to pile up 541 total yards on the Buffs -- while doing it with very balanced passing & rushing attack.

 

CSU is what I would argue is an average-at-best team (WSU @ CSU the week before, hung 51 points on the Rams and won by 26). Nevertheless, CSU dropped 28 points on the Buffs in regulation, racked up 479 total yards in regulation, while giving up 178 yards in penalties, and committing 4 TOs (-2 total TOs). With these kind of numbers, frankly, I have no idea how CSU was remotely even in this game. 

 

So far for the season, 88% of the Buffs offense comes in the air, and this number has played out quite equally in all three of their games. So, obviously they have been/are rather one dimensional. 

 

If:

1) we don't get caught up in the insane hype of this game,

2) our defense can get some pressure on Shadeur... especially early in the game,

3) our secondary can provide some reasonable contain

4) we reduce the number of penalties by about 30% vs last week, for a game total of about 50 yards,

5) we don't give up a bunch of TOs (CU is averaging +2 TOs per game)

6) And the Autzen crowd does their Crazy-Rabid-Duck-Fan-Noise-Thing, thereby ideally rattling a few of the CU O-line guys just a bit...

 

I've got the Ducks winning 54-28, while providing a very balanced pass and run game. 

 

And yet, I have to keep in mind that I've come up with these awesome and amazing observations and predictions (that's meant as humor), as I sit here in the comfort of my office, about 1,200 miles south of Eugene, and nowhere near the playing field on Saturday at Autzen Stadium.

 

But, far away, Thursday at around 1:20 PM, and on paper anyway, I feel rather good about drinking my own kool-aid today  . 

 

[Steven A]

On 9/20/2023 at 6:26 PM, Jon Joseph said:

I went to a better college than Steveo.

Didn't we all (except Charles)

[Steven A]

On 9/20/2023 at 6:26 PM, Jon Joseph said:

I am a sorry one game under .500 for the season.

I only bet one, Oregon -4.5 at TT, what a laugher.

 

The only reason I didn't have a coronary was I wasn't able to watch it.

 

This week I am all over Ducks to cover the 1st half point spread.  I see them coming out to show the FB world we should be getting the publicity.  Worried about a back door cover against our 2's and 3's late.

 

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 9/21/2023 at 1:40 PM, mikethehiker said:

Indirect comparisons can be fun predictors for Saturday's outcome and we do have a few clues.

 

I think the key to all of our clues is Wyoming who appears to have a solid team if you ask Texas Tech and Texas.  Wyoming competed at the LOS in both of those contests with the following rushing yard comparisons:

• 171-93 vs. Texas Tech
• 155-185 vs. Texas

Oregon's win against Texas Tech will look better as the season rolls along and Tech's loss to Wyoming will look understandable.  Shoot Wyoming hung with Texas in Austin for 3 quarters who had just beaten Alabama.  Texas Tech is a more complete team than Colorado and so is Washington State (as shown against Colorado St.).

 

Colorado had a gutsy win against TCU (no doubt) who had nothing really to scout with the Coach Sanders makeover.  However, Nebraska (who cannot complete a vertical pass) outrushed Colorado 222 - 58.  I expect to see similar stats for Oregon Saturday, unless QB Sanders decides to take off more often (Shough had 101 of Tech's 174 yards against us).

 

This game should be sponsored by Tostitos with all the chips we'll see on shoulders of players and coaches.  Colorado will fight hard, but Oregon will cover at home.  Too much talent and the Ducks will be very motivated for this one.

This year, WYO may be better than Bama?

[Desert Duck]

On 9/21/2023 at 11:40 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:

Just a personal observation by myself and as my fiesty wife has mentioned to me over the decades. 

 

"When did i give you the impression that your observation or opinion mattered?" She's so awesome.....

 

 

LOL. We're both fortunate to have wives who help keep us grounded (at least that's what I tell myself on certain days   ).

[mikethehiker]

On 9/21/2023 at 2:02 PM, Jon Joseph said:

This year, WYO may be better than Bama?

No.

[Solar]

On 9/21/2023 at 2:02 PM, Jon Joseph said:

This year, WYO may be better than Bama?

I had the same humorous thought seeing the final Texas WYO score. Someone could probably convince me WYO wins at home in week 1 or 2 (watching SEC monsters that have never seen a hill asphyxiating at 7k feet would be worth a watch), I don't think it would be particularly close in November at a neutral sea level site.

[Mic]

On 9/21/2023 at 2:15 PM, mikethehiker said:

No.

Dittos....

But it would be fun as all get-out if it were true! 

[EzDucksIt]

On 9/21/2023 at 2:15 PM, mikethehiker said:

No.

JJ can Dream can't he?  Could you insert Oregon in there for Wyoming if that was 25 years ago?  Not against Alabama.  But you could  against Michigan, 16 years ago in Michigan and 2 years ago at the Ohio St.

 

I keep rooting for Appalachian State, to have a Phil Knight and Company movement that brings them to Oregon Heights.  I love the little guy, guys like me.  Against the Big guys, guys unafraid to go out and get planted in the turf to pop up stronger and more determined.  Upset Kings, made the little David's of all of us, against Michigan and the Ohio St Goliaths out there.

 

Everyone has an achilles' heel, it is about finding and taking advantage of it.  Never underestimate your rival, winners and conquers take the fight out of the opponent or enemy.  That is why you go for that "Pick Six" at the end of the game rather than coast to victory.  Being Pro Active rather than Re Active.  Confidence building and the Defense, needs that.

 

Sadly, that has to be done.  Look at all the Negativity surrounding some of the out comes of the wins.  How could anyone want to be a Coach here at Oregon, we sound and act like Alabama or Auburn Fans.  Cut our New Coach and his staff a little slack.  Love to see some improvement, love to see us be competitive and Win.  Hope this Young Coach, brings his spin on building a Winning Program to Oregon and starts his Coaching Tree and putting Great Athletes into the NFL.  Cements his status as a Great Coach leading a Great Program, Here at Oregon.

 

"NO" to JJ, that sir is UNHEARD of here at OBD, is it Not?  Just so you know, I just like poking the Bear, ask Charles, I often get scolded for it but this is a Great Community with well meaning intents, thanks for letting me Quack a little.

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

There are many factors that could lead to a close game or Ducks loss. The big one is a major injury and the others are caused by a a lack of focus and discipline(dropped passes, penalties, etc.). Both are mitigated by good coaching, depth at each position and a little luck. 

[OceaniaDuck]

IMHO spread is a tad bit high. At most, I think the Ducks win by 10-13 points if they do get the victory. A lot of times, teams can get lulled into playing up or down, depending on who their competition is.

 

For example, you see Georgia maybe just getting by Kent State 39-22, when you know on paper the Dawgs should have absolutely obliterated them, but at the same time the Dawgs demolish OBD 49-3, and I know OBD are much better than Kent State. It would seem that the Dawgs were hyped up to play OBD, while they were sleepwalking through the Kent State game.

 

I think that's why DS says pretty much every game is "personal" - to get his team ready to play despite who the competition is. OBD are a high profile team that the Buffs would really love to beat, and thus CU will especially be hyped up for this game. The Ducks will have to earn this victory, again IMHO.

 

I know OBD definitely have the talent and the coaching to defeat the Buffs, but this will be a hard fought game. I'm glad the game is taking place at Autzen as we need our 12th man - the fans - to help rally OBD to victory. Go Ducks!

 

Of course, I hope I'm wrong and OBD cover the spread and then some.

Edited September 22, 2023 by OceaniaDuck

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

Oregon hasn’t decisively put away a ranked opponent since Mariota was QB. BYU and UCLA were looking promising last year but they both scored enough in the 2nd half to make things uncomfortable. Then, they blew a 21 point second half lead against the Beavers.
 

During the Mario era they choked away potential huge blowouts against Stanford and Auburn and snatched defeat out of the jaws of victory. 2016-17 should just be erased from memory.
 

Finally,  2015 ended in the worst choke job in the history of bowl games. TBH, if I was a betting man, I wouldn’t count on the Ducks pounding a ranked team any time soon.

Edited September 22, 2023 by DrJacksPlaidPants

[Solar]

On 9/21/2023 at 9:40 PM, Solar said:

Just remember one team's choke is another team's earned comeback for the ages. We've already choked TT this year. WSU coug'd it is slang for choking. It could be worse than being Ducks.

 

It's college football. Unpredictability is a part of what makes it exciting.

 

I think this could be one of the most exciting games of the year if the Buffs play their best ball.

 

[Mic]

On 9/21/2023 at 5:08 PM, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

There are many factors that could lead to a close game or Ducks loss. The big one is a major injury and the others are caused by a a lack of focus and discipline(dropped passes, penalties, etc.). Both are mitigated by good coaching, depth at each position and a little luck. 

Sans an injury to Bo Nix, (and maybe not even then if TT has made progress) I can't see how Colorado wins this game.  I just noticed the early game on ABC is Fla. State - Clemson.  Here we go again?  Too many times I've seen the major networks stay with the 1st game until it's finished, missing the kickoff and sometimes a number of offensive plays when Oregon is in the 2nd game.  Maybe being the big marquee of this game this will be different.  I can see FlaSt-Clem going into overtime.  I Hope not!

Edited September 22, 2023 by Mic

[GODUCKS15]

On 9/22/2023 at 7:22 AM, Mic said:

Sans an injury to Bo Nix, (and maybe not even then if TT has made progress) I can't see how Colorado wins this game.  I just noticed the early game on ABC is Fla. State - Clemson.  Here we go again?  Too many times I've seen the major networks stay with the 1st game until it's finished, missing the kickoff and sometimes a number of offensive plays when Oregon is in the 2nd game.  Maybe being the big marquee of this game this will be different.  I can see FlaSt-Clem going into overtime.  I Hope not!

Aren't most games rerouted to another channel or app until the previous game's over? 

[Duckhart]

Ducks are going against a qb that can extend plays and find open receivers. If we allow him to get rolling early, it will be a shoot out. No worried about our offense but we need to keep SS in the pocket with relentless pressure. 

[Mic]

On 9/22/2023 at 8:32 AM, GODUCKS15 said:

Aren't most games rerouted to another channel or app until the previous game's over? 

Alas, not always.  I remember too many that weren't.  But as important as this one is I can't imagine ABC not having a backup plan B.