Dawgs or Trojans?

[Legion]

I think I will be pulling for the Dawgs this weekend (crossing my fingers that I can publicized such an outlandish comment without administrative action).

 

This is how I see it; a victory over an undefeated Washington team in the Pac 12 Championship will be much more impressive than a victory over a one lose Washington team. I fear if Washington goes down prior to the championship game, the Pac/Oregon will be left out of the playoffs. I don't even want to give the committee an opportunity to bypass our conference this year.

 

I am guessing Georgia and Florida St. can run the table and go undefeated. Add Michigan or Ohio St., that leaves one spot left in the playoffs. If Washington can remain undefeated, the Pac 12 championship will essentially be a play in game for that final spot. However, if Washington stumbles along the way, the loser of Michigan-Ohio St. game, Texas (if they win out), or even Alabama (should they win out) might get the nod over the Pac 12 champion (i.e. the Ducks). 

 

A lot of football still to be played...

 

Not sure if anyone agrees with my rationale, but one thing we can all agree on is that this Oregon team is special. 

[Charles Fischer]

Who should lose?

 

[Steven A]

When in doubt, always root against ewe dub.  My words to live and die by!

[Desert Duck]

I think anyone who wants to see the Ducks have a shot at getting in the playoff, is rooting for us to play an undefeated team (they who must not be named) in LV.

Edited October 29, 2023 by Desert Duck

[Haywarduck]

Prudent to not want anything to go against Oregon's chance at getting into the playoffs. 

 

Right now Oregon is doing what is necessary to get in, but I wouldn't put it past the committee to take anything and twist it against our Ducks.

 

So I will go on record, I want a team I hate to win, no names to maintain my record of never rooting for any of my hated rivals.

[OregonDucks]

It's probably better for Oregon if Washington wins but I can't root for the mutts, under any circumstance. 

 

I hope that they both beat the crap out of each other...

[Log Haulin]

I hope both those teams play super crappy to a 2-2 draw. Beat the hell out of each other and limp home knowing they suck. 

 

I hope each QB throws 3 picks apiece and gets sacked a bunch. Get benched and spend the 4th quarter watching through a towel draped over their heads to hide the shame.

 

Then I hope their girlfriends break up with them, their cars run out of gas, a family of mice move into their basements and they get a UTI.

 

 

[HappyToBeADuck]

Lots of football left to play, including championship games. But fun stuff to ponder, for sure.

 

All the Ducks control, at this point, is how they prepare for and execute against Cal. Nothing matters without sending the Bears, south for the winter with a loss.

 

The committee has rewarded the teams who have avenged regular season losses in their league title game. As long as both teams were CFP worthy.

 

Ducks best chance for a CFP invite is to beat a 12-0 putrid dog team in Las Vegas. Both the putrid dogs and the defensive juggernaught know as Oregon should beat SC.

 

12-0 Washington and 11-1 Oregon would be CFP worthy.

 

Remember either OSU or Michigan will have 1 loss when they most likely face off for the Big title.

 

The loser will not be a conference champion. That has always mattered to the committee.

 

The PAC has not been invited to the CFP because the champ has 2 losses. No bias involved, simply 2 losses. (A one loss Utah would have been in in 2019 but the Ducks took them to the woodshed in the title game.) No bias, just a second loss.

 

Will be interesting to see if strength of schedule matters to CFP after Tuesday night. If it does, then Michigan shouldnt be in the 4. THEY HAVE PLAYED NO ONE.......

 

For me: tOSU, Georgia, FSU, Washington, Michigan, Oregon, Texas, Bama.

 

We shall see if my streak of bad guesses will remain intact.

 

Go Ducks....beat Cal

[AnotherOD]

On 10/29/2023 at 3:57 PM, OregonDucks said:

It's probably better for Oregon if Washington wins but I can't root for the mutts, under any circumstance. 

 

Truer words have rarely been spoken!!

 

I suppose the bright side of the thing is one of them indeed will lose!!

 

Edited October 29, 2023 by AnotherOD

[Jon Joseph]

FWIW, I see neither an 11-1 Ohio State nor an 11-1Michigan beating out a 12-1 Pac-12 champ for a playoff spot. (A 13-0 UW is in.)

 

On Tuesday we will find out which 1 loss team the playoff committee likes the best among Oregon and Texas. The committee could slot both 1 loss UT, and  Alabama above Oregon but will not rank Bama above a one-loss Texas team that defeated Bama in Tuscaloosa. 

 

I think that the AP voters have it right with 6. Oregon, 7. Texas, and 8. Alabama. But I am not objective. (DUH!)

 

Down the road, the Oklahoma loss at Kansas could help Oregon. But the best help for Oregon will be for both UW and the Ducks to run the table with the Ducks winning the Pac-12 champ game. As other commenters have noted on OBD, if the ACC, B1G, and SEC have undefeated champions, it could come down to 12-1 Oregon vs. 12-1 Texas. We'll have a good idea of how the Committee values a neutral site 3-point loss to Oklahoma, now a 1-loss team, and win at Alabama, to Oregon's 3-point loss at UW and win at Utah.

 

Puddles needs UW to muddle through to 12-0 and for the 11-1 Ducks to win in Las Vegas. It would also help Oregon's cause for LSU to win in Tuscaloosa on Saturday. And for an improved OK St team to win what will likely be the last Bedlam Game against Oklahoma in Stillwater. Oklahoma's best LB and leading tackler hurt his knee against KU and will not be able to play on Saturday.

 

UW is -3 headed to LA. The over/under is a robust 75.5 points.

 

In its last 6 games, USC is 0-6 ATS (against the spread.) In its last 11 games vs. USC, UW is 8-3 ATS. 

 

The College Football Power Index simulated the game 20,000 times. SC won 53.9% of the time. 

 

Which of the Jekyll and Hyde SC and UW teams will show up? Will Penix be on track? If so, I don't think the SC D is good enough to win a shootout on Saturday. But if UW plays like it did against ASU and Stanford, SC will win the game.

 

I wouldn't bet on this game if I had Elon Musk's money. 

[DuckHeart]

Win out and the Ducks are in the playoffs.   It's really pretty simple.  

[Charles Fischer]

On 10/29/2023 at 3:59 PM, Log Haulin said:

Then I hope their girlfriends break up with them, their cars run out of gas, a family of mice move into their basements and they get a UTI.

[1Ducker1]

The Fuskies will win and it is very much in our interest that they do just that.

[candyduck]

Of course I'm biased and see things through green colored lenses but the Ducks certainly pass the eye test.  Texas and Bama get the big viewing audience.  Sadly it's still a ratings grab I think the ducks need to overcome.

 

Though OSU laid an egg in the desert (which the ducks have done), I won't be surprised at all if they beat dub in Corvallis.  As Happy said, Cal needs to be the most important win to get any CFP talk.

 

Happy November everyone!

[Ktmguy2018]

From what I have seen of the Huskies the last two weeks, Penix is not well.  That doesn't bode well for the Alpo Snarfers.

 

There is "Who I want to win" and "Who I think will win". 

 

I WANT UW to win so that Oregon has a rematch with them in the PAC-12 championship.  But, I think USC is gonna pull off a major upset here.

 

This is gonna be a shootout and my money is on USC in that case.  Defense isn't really gonna show up (my opinion) and that CERTAINLY helps USC as they are still waiting to see their defense play this year.

 

Now that I have said my prediction, the game will end in a 9-9 tie...go figure.

[Jon Joseph]

On 10/29/2023 at 9:43 PM, candyduck said:

Of course I'm biased and see things through green colored lenses but the Ducks certainly pass the eye test.  Texas and Bama get the big viewing audience.  Sadly it's still a ratings grab I think the ducks need to overcome.

 

Though OSU laid an egg in the desert (which the ducks have done), I won't be surprised at all if they beat dub in Corvallis.  As Happy said, Cal needs to be the most important win to get any CFP talk.

 

Happy November everyone!

Candy, good call on viewership but this season to date, Oregon has had more collective eyes on its games than has Bama and Texas.

 

Some of this is due to Prime at CU. But mostly due to Oregon being a national brand, a brand that is getting very favorable kickoff times on Fox and ESPN, and not on FS1, E2, or EU, and Larry's Lost Network.

 

On Saturday, Oregon vs. Cal will be on the Pac-12 network but with a 5:30 Eastern kickoff which is far better than a 7:30 and of course, a 10:30 PM kickoff. This should be Oregon's last game on P-12N. I do think there is a good chance that Oregon at ASU will be a Pac-12 After Dark kickoff on ESPN, kicking off at 10:30 Eastern.

 

But you are spot on cautioning Ducks fans to be wary of the Bama and UT brands.

 

How about a great Ducks Playoff Trifecta on Saturday? Beat Cal while LSU takes down Bama and #25 defeats Texas with UT playing its backup QB.

[fred flintstone]

IMO the committee will take the pac 12 champion as long as its not a 2 loss team. So Oregon has its destiny in its hands. 

With 6 ranked teams this is unlike most pac 12 years. 

What Oregon can do to help itself is replay Washington and beat them by 2-3 scores on a neutral field. 

 

[woundedknees]

On 10/29/2023 at 3:59 PM, Log Haulin said:

I hope both those teams play super crappy to a 2-2 draw. Beat the hell out of each other and limp home knowing they suck. 

 

I hope each QB throws 3 picks apiece and gets sacked a bunch. Get benched and spend the 4th quarter watching through a towel draped over their heads to hide the shame.

 

Then I hope their girlfriends break up with them, their cars run out of gas, a family of mice move into their basements and they get a UTI.

 

 

You forgot the part about the girlfriend getting pregnant and the NIL systems going bankrupt...

[Steven A]

On 10/29/2023 at 3:59 PM, Log Haulin said:

and they get a UTI.

You forgot Ebola from the bats in the basement.

[GatOrlando]

The only one loss teams I could see pushing a 1 loss Washington are Georgia, and Ohio State. If, and it's a huge if. Michigan beats Ohio State in a classic, then steamrolls whatever pathetic B1G West team they play. They get the number one seed because.....

 

Georgia loses a heartbreaker to LSU, or Alabama.  It would be a compelling argument. Your locks would be an undefeated Michigan and Florida State.. A one loss Oregon.

 

Then you have a one loss Texas or Oklahoma. The Big 12 has a bunch of average to slightly above average teams. Texas at least has that win over Alabama. Then you have the two time defending champion Georgia Bulldogs. The Ohio State Buckeyes, who only lost a close nail biter to number one Michigan, and two top ten wins(at the time). 

 

Either a one or two loss Alabama that just beat Georgia. If it's one loss than this argument is over. They're in. But if they lose to LSU, they are eliminated. Last you have a one loss Washington, who just lost to Oregon.

 

A chance to rematch Ohio State vs Michigan would be very tempting. But then again, you can't keep the mighty SEC out of the playoffs right? The two time defending Georgia Bulldogs get the nod in that scenario. But Ohio State vs Michigan would draw huge numbers, and we know who runs college football by now. Sadly that eliminates a one loss Washington. This is why I wish the expanded playoffs started this year.

[criticalduck]

On 10/29/2023 at 7:09 PM, Jon Joseph said:

Oregon being a national brand, a brand that is getting very favorable kickoff times on Fox and ESPN, and not on FS1, E2, or EU, and Larry's Lost Network

This was lost on Liesure Suit Larry! As I have said before the top teams in the Pac should NEVER play a late game so they have exposure. The only reason the Pac was ever overlooked is no one in the Eastern time zones watched because of the knucklehead at the too!

 

We now don't have to worry about it but LSL did fleece the Pac for revenue...

[Just Ducky]

 I’ll say this again. TP12N has cost the conference more viewership failures than any other single thing and I can’t wait for it to end. Once again some of us will have to travel late in the day to the local pub (darn the luck) or turn on the SEC network and watch for free. Thanks LSL.

 

 Getting back to the topic at hand, the Ducks win out and win the conference championship on a neutral field they would be in. If strength of schedule does matter, which doesn’t seem to with the playoff committee, then the Ducks are in.

 

 Just win baby!
 

 

[Mistertea]

On 10/29/2023 at 8:40 PM, Steven A said:

You forgot Ebola from the bats in the basement.

And a deep paper cut in the finger web….

[fred flintstone]

IMO USC will pull out a victory. 

 

[Just Ducky]

 I’m with Fred weather will be perfect for the game and the mutts won’t have the advantage they had with the Ducks. The field was wet up in Seattle and our guys slipped many times. I’m sure we had the wrong Cleats in that game. 
 

 SC has to win this game and if Williams does what I think he can do they will win in a high scoring affair. 
 

 A tie would be excellent but won’t happen.

 

 PS I hate both teams. but I will be watching.

[TerryM9]

I just don't care about anything other than Oregon winning all their games. If they do I think they are in.

[OregonDucks]

Reportedly, if USC loses, then our game against the Trojans will likely be at 7:30pm on FOX.   I hate attending late games, so I'll be pulling for USC.

 

https://twitter.com/wilnerhotline/status/1719050422093295899/photo/1

 

Edited October 31, 2023 by OregonDucks

[PittDuck]

Wow, what a choice, the culls from the north or the scumbags from the south. That’s kinda like asking if you’d rather be beat with a hammer or a club.

 

Would you rather swim with sharks or pirhanna?  Do you want to jump in front of a truck doing 35 or a car doing 45? There is just no good answer.

 

As always, I want the best for the Ducks, and that will be to pile-drive  a 12-0 team in Vegas to win the last PAC 12 Title!