My Oregon Football Fantasy: Can We Hold This Moment?

[Charles Fischer]

Oregon is officially No. 1 in the nation for scoring at 47.4 points, something that rarely, if ever, occurred with Chip Kelly.  While I know that it is the final season stats--that counts...I want to savor the moment.  (And our offensive stats will get a boost this Saturday)

 

And giving up only 16 points a game?  It is a fantasy, a dream...so don't wake me up.

 

No. 1 Scoring Offense

No. 1 First Downs

No. 1 Turnovers Lost

No. 1 Completion Percentage

No. 2 Total Offense

No. 2 Sacks Allowed

No. 3 Yards per play

No. 5 3rd Down Conversion Percentage

 

These rankings are not in conference, but the nation?  Whew!  My knees are buckling...

 

[Just Ducky]

 Not to mention they are doing this against quality opponents. Crazy.

[Ktmguy2018]

[Log Haulin]

Ducks Hold At No. 6 In CFP Rankings - University of Oregon Athletics

GODUCKS.COM

---

Oregon held its position at No. 6 in the College Football Playoff rankings ahead of this...

Ducks Resume 

[Augduck]

This is truly a special time.   Keeping my fingers crossed.

[1Ducker1]

Incredible.

[jrw]

This is one of the moments I live for as a not-very-good sports fan: a season is a journey, and right now, right now, we have nothing but the fairest of winds and unlimited sunshine. Enjoy the voyage!

[Charles Fischer]

Let's see...if we get 70 points on Saturday....that could raise our scoring average to nearly 50 points per game!

 

 

Gotta have fun with this dream while I can!

[TerryM9]

Charles you nailed it on how many points per game are needed to be a decent team. We are seeing what Lannings vision is on defense WOW!

 

I was a season ticket holder when Dan Fouts was quarterback, and when Dick Enright was Head Coach. I've have been a Duck fan through it all. I loved the Chip Kelly years, hated the Cristobal years. 

 

I have to admit, this is fun. Simply watching a team ready to play every week is fun. To get to watch a team that the coach has completely ready to play is FUN!

I hope USC comes out playing great on offense and defense, and that The Ducks kick their butts all over the field.

 

I love it

 

 

[The Kamikaze Kid]

Let's not forget that UO is usually in cruise control by around the middle of the third quarter. By comparison, SUC is usually desperately attempting to fend off defeat week after week until the final play. While the Ducks are basically killing time by giving reps to their 4th and 5th string backs, SUC has Williams out there in panic mode working to get every yard and point they can.

 

 

[Dr Hilarius]

AND we have the #11 scoring D (SOS #61)

 

Only 2 other teams have top-15 scoring offenses and defenses: Michigan (SOS #70) and SMU (SOS #112).

[GatOrlando]

Enjoy this time my friends. Success is never guaranteed, unless you're Nick Saban. Clemson fans are feeling this. Notre Dame, Miami, Nebraska, USC, Texas, Michigan, Florida, LSU, Florida State have all fired multiple coaches. 

 

But do the one thing that's eluded you, and the one thing USC fans will always point to as the reason they are so superior. Win the National Title!!!! Beat Ohio State or Michigan in the semifinal. Then beat the crap out of Florida State or Georgia in the Championship game. You can do it, not next year, or down the road. Do it this year!!! Do it convincingly as well. Let Puddles show off that championship to all your new conference mates, and your three old ones that are going with you. "Heck with you Brutus Buckeye, Hal-in Husky, Tommy Trojan, Bobby Bruin, Walter Wolverine.  This is Puddles Pond Now!!!!"

[Jon Joseph]

On 11/7/2023 at 7:31 PM, Just Ducky said:

 Not to mention they are doing this against quality opponents. Crazy.

1 team to date with a winning record defeated.

 

No rain in Autzen or on your parade but to date, Oregon's impressive win has come at Utah. No other team the Ducks have beaten has a winning record.

 

Not to say Oregon has not played well, it has But to date, the competition on paper has not been all that great.

 

TCB vs. USC, ASU, and vs. Oregon State.

 

But based on the record to date, hopefully, Oregon will play a 12-0 UW in Las Vegas.

 

BEAT no longer ranked SC!

[Nevada Dawg]

On 11/7/2023 at 9:18 PM, Jon Joseph said:

1 team to date with a winning record defeated.

 

No rain in Autzen or on your parade but to date, Oregon's impressive win has come at Utah. No other team the Ducks have beaten has a winning record.

 

Not to say Oregon has not played well, it has But to date, the competition on paper has not been all that great.

 

TCB vs. USC, ASU, and vs. Oregon State.

 

But based on the record to date, hopefully, Oregon will play a 12-0 UW in Las Vegas.

 

BEAT no longer ranked SC!

Good analysis Jon on schedule and the task at hand. Some folks here seem to be getting way out front when job 1 should be concentrating on beating the Trojans and then, whomever is next. A great season can be ruined by a single slip-up! I've seen that happen too often in Athens, even a couple times under Kirby smart.

[woundedknees]

On 11/7/2023 at 6:16 PM, TerryM9 said:

Charles you nailed it on how many points per game are needed to be a decent team. We are seeing what Lannings vision is on defense WOW!

 

I was a season ticket holder when Dan Fouts was quarterback, and when Dick Enright was Head Coach. I've have been a Duck fan through it all. I loved the Chip Kelly years, hated the Cristobal years. 

 

I have to admit, this is fun. Simply watching a team ready to play every week is fun. To get to watch a team that the coach has completely ready to play is FUN!

I hope USC comes out playing great on offense and defense, and that The Ducks kick their butts all over the field.

 

I love it

 

 

Back in the old days of 13-7, eh?

 

I reemember a few of those... Enjoy this! And Don't forget, Oregon was a leader in creating this era of monster scores!

[Solar]

On 11/7/2023 at 6:20 PM, The Kamikaze Kid said:

Let's not forget that UO is usually in cruise control by around the middle of the third quarter. By comparison, SUC is usually desperately attempting to fend off defeat week after week until the final play. While the Ducks are basically killing time by giving reps to their 4th and 5th string backs, SUC has Williams out there in panic mode working to get every yard and point they can.

 

 

The flip side is our defense gives us more possessions per game to do our damage.

 

Well, assuming USC opponents don't drive the length of the field faster than Oregon can force a 3 and out, which I probably shouldn't assume!

[Haywarduck]

Agree the players and coaches need to focus on themselves and the game ahead. We as fans can look ahead, and I am already way ahead of where we are.

 

I am thinking about flipping the beginning of the Lanning era on its head. Come January 8th, Oregon under Lanning can flip the outcome from our first game against the bulldogs. Well maybe not the score, but the outcome.

 

I like the grounding analysis we haven't beaten a lot of ranked teams, but why not dream!

[Mic]

On 11/7/2023 at 6:07 PM, Charles Fischer said:

Let's see...if we get 70 points on Saturday....that could raise our scoring average to nearly 50 points per game!

 

 

Gotta have fun with this dream while I can!

As I said earlier (last week) I'm done with underestimating this team.  Before, I'd said 70 points against any Pac-12 or Power 5 team is way too optimistic.  Now, I'm not so sure.  Lanning, Stein, Lupoi & Co. have this team really beginning to rev things up. While any win is a good win this team seems to be (almost) unstoppable - unless they stop themselves. The only limit on how many points this team can score is the limit on how many possessions they get.  USC needs to figure out a way to hold on to the ball.  Good luck with that.

[FG Lumber]

Because the clock keeps running it will be difficult to 1:  get enough possessions and 2: score 70 points.

We're extremely fortunate to be averaging almost 48 pts/game and that's primarily due to the PSU game.  Without that game we'd be in the low to mid 40s per game

[Log Haulin]

On 11/9/2023 at 10:15 AM, FG Lumber said:

Because the clock keeps running it will be difficult to 1:  get enough possessions and 2: score 70 points.

We're extremely fortunate to be averaging almost 48 pts/game and that's primarily due to the PSU game.  Without that game we'd be in the low to mid 40s per game

Yeah , little over 43 per. That is good for 3rd in the nation behind USC and fusky.

 

I guess you would have to take away SC 56 v. Nev and Wash 56 v. BSU. Do that and Ducks are prob still leading those schools.

[Just Ducky]

Interesting side note for usuc. They are the only team in the pack to lose to a ranked team outside the pack ND.The pack however have beat themselves to submission which we all new would happen. 

[Gizmoduck]

Goal 1A: Win The Game, Goal 1B: Play To The Standard. Do that and 70 is within reach. GO DUCKS!!!

[The Kamikaze Kid]

What does points per game even matter when the Ducks are just running out the clock by the mid third quarter and SUC is scratching and clawing till the final second to avoid defeat every week?

[Charles Fischer]

On 11/9/2023 at 11:02 AM, The Kamikaze Kid said:

What does points per game even matter when the Ducks are just running out the clock by the mid third quarter and SUC is scratching and clawing till the final second to avoid defeat every week?

Precisely.

 

So what happens if Oregon keeps their foot on the gas for four quarters?

 

70!

[Washington Waddler]

     I’m with you Charles regarding our offense, but I think what impresses me most about this team is being 11th  in the country limiting scores against arguably the best group of quarterbacks in the nation.

[Steven A]

The "committee" is already giving us the style points that we deserve.

 

Now is the time to put 50+ on sc while holding them under 35, for a head to head comparison to ewe dub.

 

Then, hopefully, we look at the Utah score and see a competitive game.

[tee duke]

On 11/8/2023 at 12:18 AM, Jon Joseph said:

1 team to date with a winning record defeated.

 

No rain in Autzen or on your parade but to date, Oregon's impressive win has come at Utah. No other team the Ducks have beaten has a winning record.

 

Agreed. But teams can only play the teams they are scheduled to play.

[Jon Joseph]

On 11/9/2023 at 6:08 PM, tee duke said:

Agreed. But teams can only play the teams they are scheduled to play.

But at some point, maybe, perhaps, your SOS will be parsed by the PO Committee. I'm certain that the Committee will compare Oregon's game vs. SC to the SC game against Notre Dame.

 

A lot of ranked teams beaten down by the great Ducks D are no longer ranked and this could be problematic on 12/3/23.

 

Nevertheless. Oregon goes 3-0 and 1-0 in the conference champ game and I think that Oregon is in the final Final 4.

 

It's obscure but 4-5 Texas Tech winning 2 of its last 3 games, on the road at Kansas and Texas and at home vs. UCF would help the Ducks cause. To date, Oregon has wins, impressive wins, no doubt, against teams that will not go bowling and we know that ASU will not qualify for a bowl and gave up a bowl appearance earlier in the season.

 

A win vs. USC? I'll be a happy Ducks camper but a style point win will help the PO cause.

 

Spot on comment, thank you.

[Log Haulin]

On 11/9/2023 at 4:48 PM, Jon Joseph said:

But at some point, maybe, perhaps, your SOS will be parsed by the PO Committee. I'm certain that the Committee will compare Oregon's game vs. SC to the SC game against Notre Dame.

 

A lot of ranked teams beaten down by the great Ducks D are no longer ranked and this could be problematic on 12/3/23.

 

Nevertheless. Oregon goes 3-0 and 1-0 in the conference champ game and I think that Oregon is in the final Final 4.

 

It's obscure but 4-5 Texas Tech winning 2 of its last 3 games, on the road at Kansas and Texas and at home vs. UCF would help the Ducks cause. To date, Oregon has wins, impressive wins, no doubt, against teams that will not go bowling and we know that ASU will not qualify for a bowl and gave up a bowl appearance earlier in the season.

 

A win vs. USC? I'll be a happy Ducks camper but a style point win will help the PO cause.

 

Spot on comment, thank you.

So... the Pac 12 is the strongest conf or it isn't. All year everyone has said the Pac-12 is the strongest top to bottom.

 

Now this is the new narrative? Explain this to me? As far as I can tell... beginning of the year "greatest conf", end of the year "they haven't played anyone".

 

Sure looks like nobody knows what they are talking about. Of course thats why I watch football for myself. 

 

Many here seem to have a better bead on what is a quality team and whats not than the moroons making the decisions and the talking heads.

 

I think Oregon, Washington and maybe the beavs could beat anyone in the country on any give Sat. 

 

Sure would be nice to find out but as I said after the Colorado game, a one loss Ducks prob gets left out.

 

I think thats why Charles is pumping the 70+ sunshine. Going to need 70 and hold SC to 30 or less to get the CFP attention.

[SoGaDawg]

On 11/7/2023 at 9:39 PM, Dr Hilarius said:

AND we have the #11 scoring D (SOS #61)

 

Only 2 other teams have top-15 scoring offenses and defenses: Michigan (SOS #70) and SMU (SOS #112).

There is no doubt that the offense has just been incredible.  With Nix behind center, the Ducks O is running like an Italian Sports Car, a TD Machine!!!

 

I gotta say though, I’m almost equally impressed the the Ducks Defense.  While the Offense is scoring all these points, it’s also giving the opposition offense a ton of possessions.  This makes it tougher on a defense, yet the Ducks D has stepped up allowing only 16 points a game!!!  To me this is incredible in itself considering the circumstances.  
 

Who knows how good this team really is?  I know one thing, I see many strengths and not many weaknesses.  Definitely much to be excited about!!!

 

Go Ducks

[Jon Joseph]

On 11/9/2023 at 8:13 PM, Log Haulin said:

So... the Pac 12 is the strongest conf or it isn't. All year everyone has said the Pac-12 is the strongest top to bottom.

 

Now this is the new narrative? Explain this to me? As far as I can tell... beginning of the year "greatest conf", end of the year "they haven't played anyone".

 

Sure looks like nobody knows what they are talking about. Of course thats why I watch football for myself. 

 

Many here seem to have a better bead on what is a quality team and whats not than the moroons making the decisions and the talking heads.

 

I think Oregon, Washington and maybe the beavs could beat anyone in the country on any give Sat. 

 

Sure would be nice to find out but as I said after the Colorado game, a one loss Ducks prob gets left out.

 

I think thats why Charles is pumping the 70+ sunshine. Going to need 70 and hold SC to 30 or less to get the CFP attention.

Great comment and I do not disagree.

 

But the top 25 that matters will be released by the PO Committee on 12/3. Before this release. all top 25 wins are speculative. On 12/3 we will know the depth and strength of the Pac12 at least according to the Committee.

 

What will matter on 12/3 are wins vs. the final top 25 and nothing before then. I do not like it but OREGON to date has defeated 1 team with a winning record and 18. Utah at UW is a win/lose for OR.

 

Utah wins and the win at Utah looks better. But a potential champ game vs. UW, not so much.

 

The best PO opportunity for OREGON is for UW to go 12-0 and be ranked no lower than 5 and the Ducks win in LV.

 

I love that the Ducks are ranked 6, but based on SOR and SOS, Bama and TX have better resumes.  Oregon is above both of these teams based on eye test and not on teams that have been defeated to date.

 

Texas has a win at Bama and its one loss came against 17 Oklahoma. Bama has wins vs. 9 Ole Miss, 13 TN, and 19 LSU.

 

I love OBD but I am puzzled by these rankings. Based upon teams defeated to date, TX and Bama should be ranked above the Ducks. Oregon's SOR is 10 and its SOS is 41. Texas SOR is 5 and its SOS is 10. Bama's SOR is 4 and its SOS is 8.

 

And you can bet that Committee members are hearing about this.

 

Again, you play the schedule you play but beating ranked teams not ranked on 12/3 means nothing.

 

The Committee without any consistency, applies the Eye Test when it so desires and uses season analytics to date when it so desires.

 

IMO, instead of spending big money for 13 people and their retainers to trip to Grapevine, Texas every week, use the AP Poll to determine the PO. AP voters release their votes and votes against the mean could be tossed out.

 

I am thankful that a 12-team PO is coming and the Ducks are going B1G.

[Maebee]

How is it Michigan is ranked in the top 4 with a feather weight SOS.? And the narrative is now all about the Ducks being ranked too high and no one is saying anything about Mich. and they’re known cheaters to boot!

[SoGaDawg]

On 11/9/2023 at 11:49 PM, Maebee said:

How is it Michigan is ranked in the top 4 with a feather weight SOS.? And the narrative is now all about the Ducks being ranked too high and no one is saying anything about Mich. and they’re known cheaters to boot!

Whatever do you mean?  Michigan had a 3 week run where they had to play UNLV, Bowling Green, and then Rutgers!  And had to play them all in the Big House!  If I’m not mistaken, all 3 are already Bowl eligible!  /s

 

Seriously though, I can’t figure how the committee judges.  I can only assume it’s the so called eye test with Michigan.  They have won every game convincingly, and their defense hasn’t given up many points.  That’s all I can come up with.  
 

Heck, they have beaten everyone and no one.  At least they have to play Penn St. and Ohio St. for what it’s worth.  
 

Seems like they use different metrics for ranking different teams at times.  This makes it difficult to feel confident in any predictions of the final four Playoff teams.  
 

I’ve been preaching that I’m confident that Oregon makes the Playoff if they win out, and I absolutely think they will if they run the table.  But in the back of my mind I know it’s hard to predict how the committee may react in the final weeks.

 

As far as the cheating, it’s starting to look pretty obvious that they cheated.  But I assume the committee will just disregard this until some form of action is taken. 

[Nevada Dawg]

Don't think that the 12-1 PAC-12 champion Ducks get left out, even with having only beaten one team with a winning record to date. Besides, SOS will look much better if they beat USC, OSU, and UW. I doubt that there will be four undefeated teams in the end, so that Oregon should be in unless Texas wins out and ends up with a stronger SOS than the Ducks. Of course, I am assuming that either Georgia or Alabama gets in as SEC champs. 

 

Right now, the stars are aligning for the Ducks---provided they can continue to take care of business.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

fsu is going to lose.

[Mic]

From what we've seen and from what we've heard, the Pac-12 is one of the top, if not the top, conference in the country this year.  The way we all play 9 in-conference games results in records like they are as good teams beat good teams and records tend to even out.  In other words, the Pac-12 eats itself.  

 

To be 5-1 in THIS conference is saying something.  To finish 8-1 would shout something.  Beating UW in the Conference Championship game will absolutely scream something.  

 

Likewise, should UW finish 12-0, then 13-0 means they are probably #1 or 2 in the nation. A 12-1 Oregon would certainly be in the top 4, imo.

[DUCKED]

On 11/7/2023 at 10:06 PM, Nevada Dawg said:

Good analysis Jon on schedule and the task at hand. Some folks here seem to be getting way out front when job 1 should be concentrating on beating the Trojans and then, whomever is next. A great season can be ruined by a single slip-up! I've seen that happen too often in Athens, even a couple times under Kirby smart.

“A great season can be ruined by a single slip-up.”

 

We’ve see that happen here, too.

[Mic]

On 11/10/2023 at 8:28 AM, DUCKED said:

“A great season can be ruined by a single slip-up.”

 

We’ve see that happen here, too.

Hopefully, Oregon has had their single (and only) slip-up in Seattle.  It's also a testament of how good they are that it hasn't yet proved fatal to their championship chances.  

[Fannah Montana]

Its such a good reminder to enjoy the moment. I find myself not just looking ahead at all the possible CFP scenarios, but even next year as I wonder what the quarterback situation will be, and who replaces the NFL guys. Sometimes its best to just enjoy watching the Ducks play at an incredibly high level. I rooted for both Duck Championship games, although the outcome wasn't what I hoped for, I don't regret rooting for them every step of the way.  I'm going to take a step back to simply enjoy watching Bo Nix and the others who wont be here next year and be thankful for what we have right now.

 

Thanks for the reminder.