My Dear Duck friends, I have watched enough film this week that I am resting very well these days.  Film doesn’t lie. So much so, that I had to watch some games twice to make sure I wasn’t biased in my opinion about Texas Tech. I don’t believe the Red Raiders have the horses to make this a close game. ...

Oregon Will Romp Because Texas Tech is a Fraud

Thanks, Mike. I trust your insight, and I hope (can't let Hugh Bris in the door) you are spot on. Pac-12 and West Coast college sports guru Jon Wilner agrees with you.

I'd feel better if the B12 wasn't 3-0 in its bowl games to date. Good wins by BYU and Houston. TCU took advantage of SC not finishing. Shocking, right?

Wreck Tech!

Mike, you spoke the silent part out loud! This game has the makings of a rout.

The rout will happen if 2 critical components are executed by OBD's:

First, the Duck offensive line must keep Dante upright and give him time to flow thru his reads. Mike you recognized the glaring speed advantage the Ducks skill position players have over the TT secondary.

Dante needs protection and he will deliver!

Second, the Duck defense must hold the edges. MU and TT must force the Red Raiders run game into the strength of the defense.

Play clean and disciplined, win the battle on first and second down. TT is not strong or efficient in 3rd down and long. Force TT to be one dimensional on offense and OBD's win!

GO DUCKS......

Phil Steele is just another cog in a media machine that spits out the same narrative every year. This year he put the blue bloods in the pre-season top 10 and called it a day. Of his top 5 teams he only got Ohio State correct. I think most of us in this forum could match that. Of the remaining eight teams he only got Bama, UGA and Ohio State correct.

That’s a bold prediction and I hope you’re right.

It will be interesting to see if Oregon is able to run on the Texas Tech defense early or needs to pass to open up the running game. Can the O-line protect Dante long enough to set up big plays down the field and, if not, does Coach Stein move the pocket, which I haven’t seen him do much, or rely on short to intermediate passes?

I like big coconut predictions that are based on data and research.

So, obviously Mike, we all hope you are right. I appreciate your analysis breakdown and it certainly gives me hope. If our offense comes out of the gate like it did in the first half against JMU, TT is going to be on their heels very-very fast.

And, there's no chance that there would be any sort of let up by OBD in the second half.

Edited 8 hours ago8 hr by Desert Duck

Thanks Mike West for your always expert analysis. I made my prediction that the DUCKS put up 42 on Texas Tech. Now of course, we have to play the game. GO DUCKS!

For those who have not read the article, know that the title is NOT clickbait, as Mike West gives reasonable opinions from his own analysis as to how he thinks the Orange Bowl game will play out.

I appreciate Mike giving us this guest article, and I hope you will all read it, ponder, and offer your thoughts as to how you agree or disagree.

Great analysis, Mike. I watched the B12 CG and the TT loss to ASU in detail. In the former, BYU by virtue of sloppy play and TOs handed the game to Tech on a silver platter. In the latter a good QB was able to find gaps in that secondary to exploit. Moore is one notch better than Leavitt, and with Stein's game plan will find the same weaknesses.

The 'forced fumbles' that they hang their hat on will not be easy to come by against OBD. You can bet the last 10 days of practice at HDC have involved the RBs and WRs running a gauntlet of hands, elbows, knees, baseball bats and battering rams trying to dislodge the ball.

As long as Oregon avoids TOs and gives Dante that extra second of protection to find his receivers, the offense will click just fine and key the win.

I do agree with Mike's takeaways, but then again what would TTU be saying about us if the only games they watched were Indiana Penn State and Iowa?

As said above, turnovers are what create the large score differentials for TTU. Our RBs don't fumble, so it's on Dante Moore to take care of the ball and limit that occurrence.

TTU coaches have had a month game plan for us. They don't normally blitz, but maybe this time they do use a scheme more similar to Indiana, bringing and simulating pressures with the LBs.

I am concerned we will get out coordinated again, especially with Tosh and Stein's limited bandwidth. Although it did just occur to me that the distractions of recruiting for Oregon don't fall on their plate anymore. And DL has learned from the Rose Bowl you simply have to game plan better, including hypothetical things the other team may try on you.

Also with Morton finally being 100% mobile again we have to game plan for that probability of him using that mobility that hasn't shown up on film, both in escaping pressure and designed runs.

I do have confidence we will be ready to play our hardest most confident effort, especially along the OL.

One of the biggest things to suffer with long layoffs is tackling, so hopefully we do try to play some old Stein ball that tries to get players in a little bit of space that puts the onus on tackling for TTU.

Well, the uniforms they are busting out certainly signals a butt whooping is in the making. They look JUST LIKE BEAVIS!

Edited 6 hours ago6 hr by Chas Man

I don't recall now where i saw it, but one thing i haven't seen many questions or information about is how good is TT second defense line? Once their vaunted front 7 are winded, what kind of fall off is there? Can OBD go up tempo and gas them? Not swap out and force them to either get flagged for illegal substitute or just get caught flat footed?

How will a long sustained drive affect their conditioning? How much effect will sustained drive after sustained drive, just dinking and doinking down the field in the first half wear them out?

That's one thing i am interested in.

SCO DUCKS!!!

One thing that your post Mike had me thinking about is when you said that most receivers get open by pushing off the defenders against Oregon... Basically offensive PI.

What we haven't seen for the vast majority of the season are officials throwing flags on that and we haven't seen many flags on opposing teams, especially when it comes to holding. Iowa had one penalty for zero yards against us and if you rewatch the lien of scrimmage play I saw Bear Alexander being dragged from behind multiple times away from the ball. Textbook holding... But no flags.

Against JMU flags were thrown for two offensive PIs and a bunch of offensive line holding.

Will see see the officials actually throw flags in favor of our Ducks this game? If we do I think it's a sign that our stats may have been deflated because of so many missing flags throughout the year.

From here on our, the games come down to who wants it more.

And I believe the Ducks team love holds that advantage.

I also believe Tosh & Will want to win as bad as DL. They want to go out as champions.

I agree with Mike's points. We beat their secondary.

Also, our D-line is very, very good.

And deep. Their QB will be pressured. Their run game will be slowed.

As good as their O-line and D-line are, they haven't played a team as strong as Oregon. They will wear down. The time off always affects timing. Tackling the Ducks team speed will take a bit to readjust to.

I expect Kenyon and Jamari to have a big day. Jmac, Benson, and the return of speed-demon Dakorian and sure hands Bryant will give that secondary fits.

And our stable of backs will run and run and run.

Can't wait!

I can dig it, Mike!

Let's Burn Some Tortillas!

3 minutes ago, BroncoSas said:

I can dig it, Mike!

Let's Burn Some Tortillas!

Just get 'toasted, them smash 'em to the turf.

Two deductions from Hythloday's analysis of Texas Tech at ATQ:

1. The prolific scoring of their offense resulted not from offensive efficiency, but additional possessions made possible by turnovers. If Tech does not have favorable field position, their chances of scoring fall considerably.

2. Their defensive tackles are competent, but not the stars their edge players and LBs are. Teams have had some success running between the tackles against Texas Tech. Oregon's interior linemen (Pregnon, Iuli and Poncho) are powerful run blockers.

Enjoyed the article.

As EastBayDuckDad, Solar, and Triphibius have pointed out, the one thing that has stood out is Texas Tech's offense really feasting on turnovers and short fields this season (getting them a full 2.2 standard deviations more often than the FBS median).

It appears simply not turning the ball over, being patient and playing field position, and bending-but-not-breaking might be unusually successful against Tech. Their conversion numbers when they have to travel further to score (and string together 6+ plays) apparently fall off unusually rapidly compared to the remaining playoff teams.

Edited 4 hours ago4 hr by AnotherOD

7 hours ago, Jon Joseph said:

Thanks, Mike. I trust your insight, and I hope (can't let Hugh Bris in the door) you are spot on. Pac-12 and West Coast college sports guru Jon Wilner agrees with you.

I'd feel better if the B12 wasn't 3-0 in its bowl games to date. Good wins by BYU and Houston. TCU took advantage of SC not finishing. Shocking, right?

Wreck Tech!

Spot on Jon!

I believe the JMU game was very helpful in that respect. I also believe the staff and the players have done well to minimize responses to all the hype Tech is receiving. I was completely shocked at what I was looking at when I started to dig into the weeds. It stood out immediately. I could be completely wrong, but I'd be very shocked if I am. And of course, I will give the Red Raiders their due credit if it turns out they are as good as they are being hyped.

7 hours ago, HappyToBeADuck said:

Play clean and disciplined, win the battle on first and second down. TT is not strong or efficient in 3rd down and long. Force TT to be one dimensional on offense and OBD's win!

Agreed! And these points stand out for me. If OBD play a complete game, this will be a cruise control win.

4 hours ago, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

Phil Steele is just another cog in a media machine that spits out the same narrative every year. This year he put the blue bloods in the pre-season top 10 and called it a day. Of his top 5 teams he only got Ohio State correct. I think most of us in this forum could match that. Of the remaining eight teams he only got Bama, UGA and Ohio State correct.

Steele has more interesting assessments. BYU, whom Tech essentially wrecked, returned 4 starters on offense, and 5 on defense. They were rated the 10th best OL and 11th best DL. They should have been routed given those ratings.

It seems like Steele is more in love with the SEC and hasn't completely adjusted to the impact NIL has fostered on the game. He also whiffed last year on the top teams in the country.

4 hours ago, OregonDucks said:

That’s a bold prediction and I hope you’re right.

It will be interesting to see if Oregon is able to run on the Texas Tech defense early or needs to pass to open up the running game. Can the O-line protect Dante long enough to set up big plays down the field and, if not, does Coach Stein move the pocket, which I haven’t seen him do much, or rely on short to intermediate passes?

I am looking at that dimension as well. I want to see how Stein attacks that front four. Also, if Stein starts moving Moore around, I believe Moore will be more deadly.

4 hours ago, Desert Duck said:

I like big coconut predictions that are based on data and research.

So, obviously Mike, we all hope you are right. I appreciate your analysis breakdown and it certainly gives me hope. If our offense comes out of the gate like it did in the first half against JMU, TT is going to be on their heels very-very fast.

And, there's no chance that there would be any sort of let up by OBD in the second half.

Fingers crossed. The layoff will be an interesting factor in this game as well.

3 hours ago, EastBayDuckDad said:

Great analysis, Mike. I watched the B12 CG and the TT loss to ASU in detail. In the former, BYU by virtue of sloppy play and TOs handed the game to Tech on a silver platter. In the latter a good QB was able to find gaps in that secondary to exploit. Moore is one notch better than Leavitt, and with Stein's game plan will find the same weaknesses.

The 'forced fumbles' that they hang their hat on will not be easy to come by against OBD. You can bet the last 10 days of practice at HDC have involved the RBs and WRs running a gauntlet of hands, elbows, knees, baseball bats and battering rams trying to dislodge the ball.

As long as Oregon avoids TOs and gives Dante that extra second of protection to find his receivers, the offense will click just fine and key the win.

Mistake free football: the defining factor in playoff games. The Tech defense really focuses on forcing fumbles. They are really good at it. But you can tell they actually practice that skill-as in drills on a daily basis.

2 hours ago, Solar said:

I do agree with Mike's takeaways, but then again what would TTU be saying about us if the only games they watched were Indiana Penn State and Iowa?

As said above, turnovers are what create the large score differentials for TTU. Our RBs don't fumble, so it's on Dante Moore to take care of the ball and limit that occurrence.

TTU coaches have had a month game plan for us. They don't normally blitz, but maybe this time they do use a scheme more similar to Indiana, bringing and simulating pressures with the LBs.

I am concerned we will get out coordinated again, especially with Tosh and Stein's limited bandwidth. Although it did just occur to me that the distractions of recruiting for Oregon don't fall on their plate anymore. And DL has learned from the Rose Bowl you simply have to game plan better, including hypothetical things the other team may try on you.

Also with Morton finally being 100% mobile again we have to game plan for that probability of him using that mobility that hasn't shown up on film, both in escaping pressure and designed runs.

I do have confidence we will be ready to play our hardest most confident effort, especially along the OL.

One of the biggest things to suffer with long layoffs is tackling, so hopefully we do try to play some old Stein ball that tries to get players in a little bit of space that puts the onus on tackling for TTU.

Ah Solar,

So glad you brought those issues up. I don't believe Tech can play a straight up game tomorrow. They will have to do more than go at it one on one. They like to bring their Safeties up-essentially bring eight guys into the box. Their base defense also allows for exotic blitzes no one has seen much from them. So how much do they vary their style? They will absolutely need to bring heat, because they will not cover OBD WRs well.

I do doubt Stein gets outcoached. I thought he did an excellent job of adjusting to Indiana, and Moore simply wasn't ready to handle that much variety. Also, OBD RBs each ran for more than 5 yards per carry. The running game was there to exploit on a Defense I consider far more disruptive than Tech's. Steele considered IU the 15th best DL in the country. That unit proved repeatedly they are much better than that.

Tech's LBs are also a major strength, but they do not have great closing speed in space. LB Rodriguez is a faster version of Boettcher-and he always is in the right place at the right time. Their edges are nearly unstoppable, and their OLBs also make very good plays. But they will be forced to commit to one or the other: run or pass. They cannot stop both. That will be apparent sometime in the middle of the first quarter in my opinion.

Lupoi appears to be playing possum. I don't think he showed what he intends to do this playoff season. The LBs are the weakest link, but the Safeties have been their key assistants. I wonder if Lupoi is going to start bringing more heat himself when it matters (and the sooner the better).

OBD will have to outscore the better offenses from this point on. I am not sure Tech is a part of the group I consider lethal enough to be a threat.

2 hours ago, ABNMoose said:

I don't recall now where i saw it, but one thing i haven't seen many questions or information about is how good is TT second defense line? Once their vaunted front 7 are winded, what kind of fall off is there? Can OBD go up tempo and gas them? Not swap out and force them to either get flagged for illegal substitute or just get caught flat footed? How will a long sustained drive affect their conditioning? How much effect will sustained drive after sustained drive, just dinking and doinking down the field in the first half wear them out?

Thats one thing i am interested in.

SCO DUCKS!!!

Agreed! I do not believe TTU has the type of depth to sub much in this game.

1 hour ago, David Marsh said:

One thing that your post Mike had me thinking about is when you said that most receivers get open by pushing off the defenders against Oregon... Basically offensive PI.

What we haven't seen for the vast majority of the season are officials throwing flags on that and we haven't seen many flags on opposing teams, especially when it comes to holding. Iowa had one penalty for zero yards against us and if you rewatch the lien of scrimmage play I saw Bear Alexander being dragged from behind multiple times away from the ball. Textbook holding... But no flags.

Against JMU flags were thrown for two offensive PIs and a bunch of offensive line holding.

Will see see the officials actually throw flags in favor of our Ducks this game? If we do I think it's a sign that our stats may have been deflated because of so many missing flags throughout the year.

David, the refs have cost us one title (Newton fumbled that TD run, he threw the pick, and we all know they got a gimmie at the end of the game).

I am going to have to keep my cool this playoff season, because JMU got two explosive passes on pushoffs the refs didn't call. So I have to expect that will be par for the course.

1 hour ago, DanLduck said:

From here on our, the games come down to who wants it more.

And I believe the Ducks team love holds that advantage.

I also believe Tosh & Will want to win as bad as DL. They want to go out as champions.

I agree with Mike's points. We beat their secondary.

Also, our D-line is very, very good.

And deep. Their QB will be pressured. Their run game will be slowed.

As good as their O-line and D-line are, they haven't played a team as strong as Oregon. They will wear down. The time off always affects timing. Tackling the Ducks team speed will take a bit to readjust to.

I expect Kenyon and Jamari to have a big day. Jmac, Benson, and the return of speed-demon Dakorian and sure hands Bryant will give that secondary fits.

And our stable of backs will run and run and run.

Can't wait!

This is where we get to see if our young team has developed killer instinct. If it ever was necessary, Tech is the kind of team to put down early, and keep down late.

1 hour ago, BroncoSas said:

I can dig it, Mike!

Let's Burn Some Tortillas!

I prefer burnt steak. We used to call it burnt toast when this old dog played football!

1 hour ago, Triphibius said:

Two deductions from Hythloday's analysis of Texas Tech at ATQ:

1. The prolific scoring of their offense resulted not from offensive efficiency, but additional possessions made possible by turnovers. If Tech does not have favorable field position, their chances of scoring fall considerably.

2. Their defensive tackles are competent, but not the stars their edge players and LBs are. Teams have had some success running between the tackles against Texas Tech. Oregon's interior linemen (Pregnon, Iuli and Poncho) are powerful run blockers.

I believe zone blocking will be more difficult on Tech. The edges are very quick. Surprisingly, running to the edges has worked on this defense though. If Lupoi forces Tech to drive the entire field, I don't believe the Red Raiders will score much. They need explosive plays to stay in this game in my opinion.

50 minutes ago, AnotherOD said:

Enjoyed the article.

As EastBayDuckDad, Solar, and Triphibius have pointed out, the one thing that has stood out is Texas Tech's offense really feasting on turnovers and short fields this season (getting them a full 2.2 standard deviations more often than the FBS median).

It appears simply not turning the ball over, being patient and playing field position, and bending-but-not-breaking might be unusually successful against Tech. Their conversion numbers when they have to travel further to score (and string together 6+ plays) apparently fall off unusually rapidly compared to the remaining playoff teams.

Yep, this is the time to force Tech to play a complete game, not just feast on turnovers and explosive plays.

1 hour ago, Triphibius said:

The prolific scoring of their offense resulted not from offensive efficiency, but additional possessions made possible by turnovers. If Tech does not have favorable field position, their chances of scoring fall considerably.

Great take here. Against BYU in the B12 Championship game, TTU got 4 turnovers that basically put them in the red zone each time. They got 1 TD, 2 FGs, and 1 missed FG.

Not all that productive.

I don’t believe TTU is a fraud; perhaps more “unknown”.

“Unknown” because all their stats are derived from B12 competition. Without much cross-conference competition, it’s hard to effectively rank teams.

I do hope many of @Mike West predictions come true.

Go Ducks!!

1 hour ago, WTD25 said:

I don’t believe TTU is a fraud; perhaps more “unknown”.

“Unknown” because all their stats are derived from B12 competition. Without much cross-conference competition, it’s hard to effectively rank teams.

I do hope many of @Mike West predictions come true.

Go Ducks!!

I don't either...

I happen to believe the Red Raiders did their job winning the games they were supposed to. They do have a stout defense. It hasn't really been tested though. None of the teams they've faced are elite.

I also believe Indiana changes the narrative about OBD. The response reminds me of all the talk about Auburn after they stuffed out running game.

I will always believe that Chip was so bent on proving he could run in the Tigers instead of exploiting their weakness against the clear advantage OBD had passing that day

In my mind Auburn was lucky he did, because OBD were by far the better team. We held the most explosive SEC team to 19 points ( in a conference known for its physical prowess) and had the opportunity to drop 30 plus if we had just passed the damn ball.

The SEC and ESPN got away with a false narrative.