noDucknewby

The engineering of the previous expansion was specifically designed to accomodate a second phase. They most likely already have those plans. Not saying the other logistical hurdles aren't significant, but in the past those have all been overcome and I suspect that would be the case here.

Yes that would certainly change the equation, but it seems to me that divisions are gone for good regardless of how the geography works.

Fuskies will almost certainly be our protected game in this format. I agree it's unlikely that we play USC/UCLA every year, I'm guessing every other year. So basically we have two west coast conference games, probably split home/away. That leaves seven conference games so we'll travel for 3-4 of those. Good background from the Rutgers poster about the B1G protecting UM/tOSU, we may have to wait a while before the big dogs come to Autzen. I'm hoping we get that make-up game against tOSU, but most likely we're going to see the likes of Purdue/Indiana/Illinois/Northwestern for a while. I'm betting that we have mostly one-offs from the top-tier of the B1G in their house. Ok none of this should be a big surprise (this is what we signed up for), but IMHO it's imperative that we play our non-conference games (other than every other year with the Beavs) at home. Screw playing Georgia in Atlanta or LSU in Jerry World, we no longer need that signature non-conference win.

Yes absolutely. For that matter I would be fine with the rodents and wazoo, as unlikely as that may be. UCLA would probably support Cal so they don't have to give them part of their TV payout, but I just don't see the Spoiled Children agreeing to any further B1G expansion because it might cut into their payout and their precious exclusivity. The odds of any of this happening go way down once USC gets a vote. Cal is in a really tough spot, Furd could possibly be used to entice ND and that would give the B1G the Bay Area.

From a northsider I'm all in, our half of the stadium is stuck in the 70s.

Strike while the iron is hot! Let's expand it and have 70,000 there when the first B1G power shows up. Disclaimer though my tickets are on the north side and it sure seems like we're in poor part of town.

In a sense he's right. If Oregon states outright that they're with Pac as long as there is a Pac AND they're willing to accept a paltry TV deal that puts them in dead last of the Power 5 AND they're willing to risk fading into obscurity in a dying conference, then the Pac would probably have survived in some (albeit barely recognizable) form. That or take the $ and stability of the B1G in a sport destined for a Power Two format. Come on, Oram what you have done?

Metaphor dude.

This is a bittersweet day for sure. The death of the Pac-12 brings me no joy, but knowing that Oregon will have a seat at the big table going forward makes me really optimistic about the future. Once the new CFP format is announced I'm guessing 8-9 teams from the B1G/SEC to be in it every year. Throw in ND whenever they have a 10-win season and that doesn't leave much room for the rest. The Pac-12 and college football as we once knew it is gone. Adapt or die is the law of the jungle.

Of course, but this is certainly not a given at this point.

Well little brother, in case you haven't figured this out it's now every man for himself. We didn't start this mess, we're just trying to make lemonade here. That said I would be really bummed if when the dust settles the Civil War goes the way of the Pac-12.

Spot on Jon, although IMHO if we could get B1G $ (with escalation to full share) comparable to B12 $ then that's still a huge win for us.

Just do it.

Spot on, Fox absolutely benefits from P12 dissolution. They have no interest in paying fair market value. ESPN to me is still a bit of head-scratcher though unless they're willing to completely abandon the west coast and go all-in with the SEC.

You may be right, but do we really want to wait 4-5 years for that to happen and risk irrelevancy in the meantime? The power brokers for the CFP are ESPN/Fox and the B1G/SEC. How is Apple going to help us there? Are we going to see Duck highlights from Apple TV on Sports Center?

One thing life has taught me (yeah I'm old) is that wanting something in itself, no matter badly, just doesn't make it so. I want the Pac? to survive, but even if it does it won't ever be the same again. This year will be the conference's swan song and ironically this is the best the conference has looked in a decade. I'll just enjoy it one last time and hope USC and Colorado get the send-off they deserve in Autzen. Granted we don't know the final details of what the new media offer will be, but all indications are that our ceiling (not floor!) is what the B12 already has. Polish this turd all you want, it appears that we will finish this round of media deals in solid last place. Can GK pull a rabbit out of the hat? Will a last-minute savior swoop in with a new offer? We can wish all we want, but at some point reality has to set in. Arizona/ASU/Utah would be fools not to bail to the B12. Geography and culture works better for them and from a B12 perspective they'd be at 16 teams approaching super conference status. This is a win/win for all parties involved and seems inevitable to me. So where does that leave OBD? We could probably limp through until the next media round with a Pac/MWC hybrid conference but we'd no longer be in a power conference, not even second-tier like the B12 or ACC. Our brand is strong, the conference not-so-much and really we need both to compete for playoff spots. Beg, borrow, steal, do whatever it takes to get into the B1G or risk dwindling into irrelevance. I don't like it but I just don't see how we get what we've been striving for all these years by staying in the Pac.

David I read your article about Pac-12 survival strategy and while I agree with your strategic analysis, I think it is most likely wishful thinking. I just don't envision the LA schools (or just UCLA) taking a huge pay cut to reduce travel time and related expenses to return to the Pac-12. To my mind, it is more likely that the B1G will do whatever it needs to do to keep them there and the best way to do that is add more west coast schools to ease travel issues. Hypothetically, if they add Oregon/Washington/Cal/Stanford and create a west coast pod that plays each other every year, that accounts for 5 conference games. Throw in 2 home and 2 away games with the rest of the conference and that becomes very manageable. Under this scenario there would be a total of 12 away games on the west coast for the rest of the conference to split up, which seems very doable. Would the B1G want Cal and Stanford? That's anybody's guess at this point, but I don't think they would give up either of the LA schools without a fight and let's face it we're badly outgunned here. Don't get me wrong, I'm rooting for the Pac and I hope you're right but the B1G and the SEC are holding all the cards and all I see is the rich getting richer.

Ok I'll state the obvious, if this new TV deal gets done the existing members will be signing away their GOR for the next 4-5 years. How is it possible that two years into a new 4-5 year deal the conference collapses? There's more of a chance the conference doesn't survive the summer. The next contract cycle is an entirely different debate and it certainly seems likely that the B1G will take another bite out of the P12 at that time. The LA schools aren't coming back and I agree with others that the P12 only survives as a power conference as long as the B1G/SEC allow it to.

Hard to say how much validity this has, but it does not seem beyond the realm of possibility. $20 million/year is not enough to keep the P12 together. Maybe with a very short-term contract and uneven revenue sharing this might work for one contract cycle, but it would be the beginning of the end. That said, I just don't see how the demise of the P12 would benefit ESPN. Do they really want to go all-in on the MWC for the west coast evening slots? Unless they're throwing in the towel, I just don't see them ceding the entire west coast to Fox.

By my calendar today is May 15. The new B1G commsioner starts his job July 1. Our new University President from the B1G is already on the job. There are no apparent positive developments in the P12 TV deal. That doesn't mean they're not on the horizon, but we've been hearing that a deal is close for most of a year now and still nothing definitive has surfaced. IMHO July 1 is a critical date. If we're still having these conversations then, my $ is on someone bailing and the conference imploding. Personally I hope the conference survives this round and the LA schools get stuck with horrible travel schedules, but that may just be wishful thinking. I just don't see any positve movement in the TV deal going forward, hope I'm wrong though.

Spot on IMHO. I'd also add that teams outside the Power 2 may have a hard time hanging on to successful coaches when the new TV $ starts rolling in. Assuming Lanning is our guy, what happens when Purdue or Northwestern offers him $15-$20 million? This may seem far-fetched, but brace yourselves for a new round of inflation in coaches' salaries. I've said all along that eventually the money gap becomes a talent gap. Personally I'm really hoping that the P12 stays together for this TV contract, adds a couple of members and let's the dust settle. We'll know a lot more about the CFP and the college football environment the next time around.

I'm very encouraged about our defense, not so much about our QB play. Bo was pretty mediocre, but he always seems to rise to the occasion when needed and he just doesn't get rattled. Sorry, TT just does not instill confidence I'm really not seeing anything new here and Novosad looked liked a boy among men (huge caveat here, he should still be in high school). The other caveat on the QB play is that they were under pretty much constant pressure, hats off to the defensive line in particular they were getting pressure without blitzing for the most part. The lack of a running game isn't that concering to me. Is it from a superior defensive line performance or an inferior offensive line performance? Probably a bit of both, but I feel pretty confident in both these position groups when we get our best players all on one side of ball. We have legitimate deep threat receivers, and please just get Tez the ball in the open field, he'll do the rest!

Well there's smoke for sure. There's a new UO president from the B1G, the P12 TV deal is dragging on and now the B1G has a new commissioner in place who may be anxious to make his mark. I don't see how any of those factors are favorable for P12 cohesion. GK and the remaining 10's apparent "patience" and "unity" seem pretty hollow to me. Do I agree with the author of this post and his "sources"? Call me skeptical, but the longer this thing drags on the greater one or more of the remaining 10 members gets nervous and bolts, especially if the B1G or B12 decide to be more aggressive and sweeten the deal. Each day with no TV deal tips the scale a little more IMHO.

Personally I'm not thrilled about this one, this is one of the major differences between college and the NFL and I would still like the college game to be different. If they really want to shorten the game, then they should get rid of all the ridiculous booth reviews in favor of a challenge system, or perhaps let's get rid of those annoying 3.5 minute TV timeouts. Yeah I know that would cost the networks $ boo hoo. The one rule I would like to see changed is the knee down rule. It's always seemed stupid to me that if a player goes down without contact that he can't get up and run. That's not a tackle!

Not even clicking anything from CBS/Dennis Dodd. They've been beating the drum for the P12 demise for months now.