Details of Pac-12 Media Deal Begin to Emerge

[cartm25]

The article is from 247Sports and is behind a paywall:

 

[Duckman1]

It’s great for smaller add on schools but not worthy offer for current schools

[LilyDog]

Fake news.... I hope....

 

[DUCati855]

On 7/31/2023 at 3:10 PM, cartm25 said:

I sure hope the $20M figure is NOT true.

 

 

If it is. There will be no less than six schools looking for better offers.

[Duckman1]

Reporting Arizona may be gone tomorrow 

[Charles Fischer]

I'm predicting a BIG number...

 

[crazyjeff]

The report might be true, but if that is what he is presenting, then I would say he is hoping to get fired so he can move on to a new job.

[Charles Fischer]

 

[Charles Fischer]

 

[idontrollonshobbas]

As a wiser man than me (Mel Brooks) once said/sang

 

Hope for the best, expect the worst
Some drink champagne, some die of thirst
No way of knowing which way it's going
Hope for the best, expect the worst!

Hope for the best, expect the worst
The world's a stage, we're unrehearsed
Some reach the top, friends, while others drop, friends
Hope for the best, expect the worst!
 

[David Marsh]

If it's 20mil then yeah....I guess I'll get off the "hope the PAC stays alive" train. 

 

Going down from our current number would be a disaster. Keeping in mind the current media contract is over a decade old when it was written we shouldn't be going down from there. 

[Log Haulin]

20m? I don't know if I should be offended or Downgrade my thoughts on Pac12 worth. 

 

Pac hasn't been to the CFP in years. Pac 12 champs got beat by unranked Florida. One of the Pacs best teams got throttled 49-3 first game last year. 

 

IDK, maybe 20m is fair market value? 

[David Marsh]

On 7/31/2023 at 4:17 PM, Log Haulin said:

IDK, maybe 20m is fair market value? 

No... It feels like the PAC is being squeezed by media companies. I know that Fox and ESPN want the PAC on the cheap to fill out the rest of their inventory. They consider this conference only good for late night programming. 

 

I'm hoping that the 20mil number is only part of the overall deal and there is another component that brings in more. 

[Haywarduck]

Darn and all this time I had bought into the idea the Pac-12 network was worth $5 billion, said the University Presidents! 

[HappyToBeADuck]

Gosh, another day, with no named sources, sky is falling, Armageddon for the PAC 9.

 

No one knows the number except GK, The Committee and the Tier 1 Rights Holder. Unless they leaked it.

 

I can wait a day or 2 and let this brew and then look at it. Then scream the sky is falling

 

Ask yourself, why would Apple or any streamer waste all this time, then throw out a number that will be rejected?

 

Unless they are part of 2 or 3 linear deals coming together to hit the mark.

 

If streamers want to get into broadcasting CF, then they know the base market is set at $31.7 million.

 

Goodness.........

[AnotherOD]

If it is 20 million AND mostly streaming? Ugh.

 

[David Marsh]

On 7/31/2023 at 4:47 PM, AnotherOD said:

If it is 20 million AND mostly streaming? Ugh.

 

In truth this is what I have heard a bunch of big-12 reporters saying for MONTHS now. 

 

So if it is true I'd be very disappointed.... But I'll believe it when I see it. 

 

I believe streaming can be overcome after people have had a year to get used to it...streaming is only getting stronger while the traditional forms of broadcasting are getting weaker. The trend is in the right direction in that front.

 

But I find the 20mil number far more concerning if true. 

 

The number needs to be around 30mil or higher.

[Log Haulin]

On 7/31/2023 at 4:25 PM, David Marsh said:

No... It feels like the PAC is being squeezed by media companies. I know that Fox and ESPN want the PAC on the cheap to fill out the rest of their inventory. They consider this conference only good for late night programming. 

 

I'm hoping that the 20mil number is only part of the overall deal and there is another component that brings in more. 

Not a lot is going well for the Pac recently. Members are hitting the exit fast. We can spin and sugar coat it all we want.

 

We are on the eve of a fourth member heading down the road.  Thats a third of the conference in 12 months. 

 

Those are facts. At this rate the Pac will be lucky to get Cal Poly. Not a good look, just saying.

 

Few more weeks and the Ducks will be playing on the Hallmark Channels. 

[David Marsh]

On 7/31/2023 at 4:59 PM, Log Haulin said:

Those are facts. At this rate the Pac will be lucky to get Cal Poly. Not a good look, just saying.

Even if that 20mil number is true it would be a massive upgrade for G5 schools. The PAC will survive but it would be a far cry from a power conference. 

 

Remember the mountain west is only paying out about 4 mil a year. 

 

The pac won't die... But it would be somewhere between the G5 and P2. It may also take the better part of a decade to be rebuilt. 

 

If given enough funds, time and the right leadership a G5 school can become a P5 school. But the one thing the PAC is out of at this point is time. 

[1Ducker1]

Well if the number is really that low in total then Oregon and Washington are headed to the BIG.

[Duckman1]

No matter what we’re always going to duck fans no matter what happens down the road, we’re not leaving Oregon even if we do change, same ducks, let’s rejoice and have a great season

[lownslowav8r]

Well, we will find out soon enough. If so you can bet no one will pay Oregon more to join their conference. 
 

If true, all of you hoping for the PAC to be destroyed so Oregon will move to another conference will have to look up "Pyrrhic victory" unless your true goal is to destroy Oregon. 
 

Then you can dance in the streets. 

[Charles Fischer]

On 7/31/2023 at 4:37 PM, HappyToBeADuck said:

I can wait a day or 2 and let this brew and then look at it. Then scream the sky is falling

Yeah.  We've had a lot of people declare the end...yet that is NOT the end.  Oregon will be fine no matter what.  It sucks if it all turns out to be true, but Our Beloved Ducks will survive it better than ANYONE in the current Pac-12.

[Charles Fischer]

On 7/31/2023 at 4:25 PM, David Marsh said:

I'm hoping that the 20mil number is only part of the overall deal and there is another component that brings in more. 

I am hoping that the 20 million is for Tier One rights, and we scratch up more due to Apple selling rights to a number of games to appear on linear/TV as Tier Two rights.  Oregon vs. USC will fetch a pretty penny...

 

[OceaniaDuck]

If all the rumors turn out to be true, LS's name will go down in infamy as the commissioner who destroyed the conference. GK inherited a mess to be sure, but sadly it doesn't seem like he was up to the task of helping the conference thrive, which is what he was hired for. All the university presidents who voted to keep LS on and thus enabled him also are to share in the blame.

 

Additionally, rooting for the rest of the PAC to beat USC/UCLA and give them "proper" sendoffs to the B1G with losing records for stabbing the PAC-12 in the back. I guess I have one foot out the door now on the "I hope the PAC survives" train unless a miracle happens in the 11th hour.

[David Marsh]

On 7/31/2023 at 5:43 PM, OceaniaDuck said:

GK inherited a mess to be sure, but sadly it doesn't seem like he was up to the task of helping the conference thrive, which is what he was hired for.

GK needed or needs more time. He was seriously on the job for maybe a month and a bit before the LA schools left. 

 

The media deal is getting there... But perhaps to get the best deal there just isn't time to get it done. 

 

Larry Scott is the one who put us in this mess that's for sure. If a media partner owned part of the pac-12 network the LA schools wouldn't have been so easy to pry away. 

[Duckman1]

I love the PAC and always will doesn’t matter where or whom we shall play. I pray it’s still the PAC but we shall overcome and succeed no matter what. I will try and have some faith that it works out.

[Log Haulin]

IMO, the writing has been on the wall for a few years now. Nobody has taken the Pac seriously for a bit. After this embarrassment of an off season, nobody will take this conference or its members seriously for some time.

 

It's time to go. Ducks have spent 30 years trying to become relevant nationaly. If they stay in the Pac, 30 years for nothing.

 

I am not going to hold out hope that this can be fixed. Not even the NCAA is coming to the aid of the Pac. I just don't see what you guys are seeing, that this can be fixed.

 

I want our Beloved Ducks in a strong conference, playing the best for the ultimate prize. Not in a glorified G5. 

 

Getting the "little brother" tagged to the Ducks by UCLA and USC isn't acceptable. No... it's  time to go.

[1Ducker1]

You want to be the best? You play the best teams and beat them. However travel can beat even the best of teams. I'm just hoping for a good outcome.

[David Marsh]

On 7/31/2023 at 6:27 PM, 1Ducker1 said:

You want to be the best? You play the best teams and beat them. However travel can beat even the best of teams. I'm just hoping for a good outcome.

Or do as Clemson has done... Beat everyone you're supposed to and then in the playoff win the biggest games. 

[Haywarduck]

On 7/31/2023 at 6:33 PM, David Marsh said:

Or do as Clemson has done... Beat everyone you're supposed to and then in the playoff win the biggest games. 

There are a few formulas, but playing lots of tough teams and then winning the playoffs hasn't been one of them. It does sound good, but agree Clemson's formula is the one we should shoot for. 

 

One thing we need is enough exposure that the elite talents will keep coming to Oregon. Even with the best facilities and great coaching, kids want to be seen and able to win big things.

 

Mariota winning the Heisman was huge for making Oregon legit. We need Nix to be in the hunt this year or win it.  We now need to be on tv, in front of numbers. Oregon needs to be must see tv!

[HappyToBeADuck]

It's amazing to me how far down the rabbit hole we as fans can go. Especially on rumors.......

 

If you want more negative then dont read this post. You will be disappointed. I respect your feelings and posts. Its good therapy to get it off your chest. We all need it.

 

Here's my rumor for the Forum and it has as much validity as anyone elses. Its positive so proceed with caution.....

 

The combined deal of Tier 1 and Tier 2 rights will come in between $28 and $34 million per year. With a 3% to 5% annual escalator.

 

Tier 1 will be a streaming company. The goal for the streamer is to bring in new subscribers. The PAC should be rewarded annually for the number of subscribers brought in over a baseline.

 

The PAC should receive a % of any advertising dollars that the streamer may eventually use. I have no problem with commercials as long as the entertainers are rewarded. And commercial times outs are no longer than 2 minutes. And no more than 1 forced TV time out per half.

 

SPOILER ALERT: ESPN will be part of the package. They are a sports broadcaster and the PAC 9 has quality sports programming. I decided to take a breath and consider that ESPN would rather have OSU vs WSU on PAC After Dark than BSU vs USU. Its good business, very profitable and ESPN will not vacate a broadcasting staple. Besides they getting it for cheap 

 

ESPN will be at the table. Their offer of $9 million per school a year is way better than the $3 million per year each school received from the P-12 Network.

 

PAC After Dark has worked out well for ESPN and the cash strapped company needs high value programming.

 

The streamer will share/sell or simulcast the PAC'S high profile games. CBS has interest in broadcasting those games on National linear TV.

 

All the PAC remaining 8 schools (ungrateful UA can get the hec out) need to do is keep investing and growing the product. Strive to send 2 of the 4 top 25 schools to the CFP.

 

Then invite 2 quality schools that want to invest and grow their brands. You know Utah, UA and ASU were begging the PAC for invites to the big table. Utah grew their brand. You can decide about the Arizona schools.

 

I am looking forward to seeing this unfold

[David Marsh]

On 7/31/2023 at 6:47 PM, Haywarduck said:

One thing we need is enough exposure that the elite talents will keep coming to Oregon. Even with the best facilities and great coaching, kids want to be seen and able to win big things.

We will get this... The Oregon brand is too good for it to be forgotten. 

 

Oregon's going to be just fine no matter what course they take. We have donars that will ensure we don't fall behind.

[lownslowav8r]

On 7/31/2023 at 6:09 PM, Log Haulin said:

I want our Beloved Ducks in a strong conference, playing the best for the ultimate prize. Not in a glorified G5. 

 

Getting the "little brother" tagged to the Ducks by UCLA and USC isn't acceptable. No... it's  time to go.

Go where and for how much? B1G? Not sure they are expanding and if they change their mind, they aren’t going to give Oregon a penny over what they could get elsewhere. Not only that but out of that vastly reduced payment Oregon will be paying millions in travel. 
 

Follow Colorado? Not sure how anyone considers that a step up.

 

“It’s time to go” ignores a lot of unpleasant reality including the possibility of starvation level payments for the next several years. “It’s time to go” is magical thinking, not a plan. 
 

Oregon would be much better being in the PAC for the next several years and then reassessing it’s future from a position of strength. 
 

Nothings says “little brother” like netting 10 million after travel and other extra expenses while USC is netting 50 million. Netting 30 million that Oregon probably could have gotten if the PAC had hung together a bit longer sounds a lot better and would give us a lot better chance to play with the A team. 

[Mike West]

On 7/31/2023 at 6:33 PM, David Marsh said:

Or do as Clemson has done... Beat everyone you're supposed to and then in the playoff win the biggest games. 

Clemson is not the model.

 

Georgia is the model.  Alabama is the model.

 

Put it on a team so hard and fast they start to blink.

 

Like Mike Tyson.  But even more, able to handle anything like Ali.

 

That takes a mentality that wants to destroy average teams, not just beat them.

 

Let up when that team concedes physically and mentally.  No mercy.

 

Clemson didn't have the fortune to earn it like some SEC teams, but they destroyed their conference.  

 

And that barely was enough to handle Alabama, and wasn't even close to handling LSU.

 

The only team capable of handling Georgia the past two years and LSU with Burrow was Alabama.

 

That is your mark.  That is the standard.

[Mudslide]

On 7/31/2023 at 5:43 PM, OceaniaDuck said:

If all the rumors turn out to be true, LS's name will go down in infamy as the commissioner who destroyed the conference. GK inherited a mess to be sure, but sadly it doesn't seem like he was up to the task of helping the conference thrive, which is what he was hired for. All the university presidents who voted to keep LS on and thus enabled him also are to share in the blame.

 

It should all make us feel a bit less warm and fuzzy that two things will follow.

1:  Larry Scott need never work again.  Not including savings from his outrageous salary, he has that $5,600,000 in 2021 salary/severance (for 6 months "work") to warm his cockles in the night ... for the rest of his life.

2:  The university presidents will wait just long enough in their current positions to then promote to a larger school for more money and prestige.  (OR ... they could of course get into politics.  After all, politics needs more hand sitters!)

[OhioDuck]

On 7/31/2023 at 7:25 PM, David Marsh said:

No... It feels like the PAC is being squeezed by media companies. I know that Fox and ESPN want the PAC on the cheap to fill out the rest of their inventory. They consider this conference only good for late night programming. 

 

I'm hoping that the 20mil number is only part of the overall deal and there is another component that brings in more. 

Problem is, if it does not come to light soon, the PAC may soon consist of 7 schools. What media outlets are going to sign on for that?

 

I agree with Lanning Colorado wasn't a giant loss, media market or not how many people actually watched their games. 

 

If UA and ASU go? It's going to be tough to make a viable P5 conference from what is left and the schools that might be picked up. 

 

Past SDSU and SMU who is there? I've heard Boise, that's a marginally good fit. Utah State? Logan is not exactly a giant market, though their ADep seems pretty healthy.

 

Is the Pace going to be in position to poach any teams from the Big 12 now, I doubt it. It's going the other direction. 

 

Dang, I'm usually a positive, optimistic type, but this is hard. 

[Wrathis]

On 7/31/2023 at 8:58 PM, HappyToBeADuck said:

It's amazing to me how far down the rabbit hole we as fans can go. Especially on rumors.......

 

If you want more negative then dont read this post. You will be disappointed. I respect your feelings and posts. Its good therapy to get it off your chest. We all need it.

 

Here's my rumor for the Forum and it has as much validity as anyone elses. Its positive so proceed with caution.....

 

The combined deal of Tier 1 and Tier 2 rights will come in between $28 and $34 million per year. With a 3% to 5% annual escalator.

 

Tier 1 will be a streaming company. The goal for the streamer is to bring in new subscribers. The PAC should be rewarded annually for the number of subscribers brought in over a baseline.

 

The PAC should receive a % of any advertising dollars that the streamer may eventually use. I have no problem with commercials as long as the entertainers are rewarded. And commercial times outs are no longer than 2 minutes. And no more than 1 forced TV time out per half.

 

SPOILER ALERT: ESPN will be part of the package. They are a sports broadcaster and the PAC 9 has quality sports programming. I decided to take a breath and consider that ESPN would rather have OSU vs WSU on PAC After Dark than BSU vs USU. Its good business, very profitable and ESPN will not vacate a broadcasting staple. Besides they getting it for cheap 

 

ESPN will be at the table. Their offer of $9 million per school a year is way better than the $3 million per year each school received from the P-12 Network.

 

PAC After Dark has worked out well for ESPN and the cash strapped company needs high value programming.

 

The streamer will share/sell or simulcast the PAC'S high profile games. CBS has interest in broadcasting those games on National linear TV.

 

All the PAC remaining 8 schools (ungrateful UA can get the hec out) need to do is keep investing and growing the product. Strive to send 2 of the 4 top 25 schools to the CFP.

 

Then invite 2 quality schools that want to invest and grow their brands. You know Utah, UA and ASU were begging the PAC for invites to the big table. Utah grew their brand. You can decide about the Arizona schools.

 

I am looking forward to seeing this unfold

Based on something akin to what's above, I think this could work. You bring in SDSU, SMU and UNLV at a reduced share (but still an increase over the $4M or whatever the MWC is paying them), and incentivize their performance by increasing their share from any full share school that they outperform. I think by using an incentivized unequal revenue sharing system, you can still give the new schools a raise AND incentivize them and the full share schools to punch above their weight. You also get to pioneer the streaming side of things, especially if you can get them to incentivize a payout system based on viewership numbers. There should be negotiating power in the fact that you're volunteering to be the first major streaming-based conference, so get them to pay a cut based on viewership/new subscriptions.  There's a way to make this work, it's just going to take some good negotiating and creative thinking...

[Annie]

 

[Haywarduck]

On 8/1/2023 at 10:23 AM, Annie said:

 

And if there is no smoke it is all mirrors. I know I am holding my breath on this one today!

[Washington Waddler]

     It ain’t over til we say it’s over! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? When the going gets tough . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  . the tough get going!  (apologies to John Belushi)

[Mike West]

On 8/1/2023 at 9:35 AM, cartm25 said:

Clemson may not be THE model, but Clemson is definitely A model.

 

Other notable athletes/teams that have used the Clemson model: LeBron James and the New England Patriots (most Super Bowls all-time).

 

Different perspective: In the two years Clemson won the CFP, all of Alabama's advantage and fortune from "earning it" in the SEC wasn't enough to handle Clemson.

 

Clemson went to the CFP 6 years in a row and won 2 national titles; both over Alabama. Given the Ducks haven't come close to that type of sustained success over a 6-year period, not sure why we'd discount that model.

 

I'll take the Clemson, Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, etc. model . . . I'll take any model that results in a national championship for the Ducks. 

Yep,

 

I'd take any path as well.  I just prefer the Dominance path.  Clemson went undefeated with two close games (over 9-4 A&M and 10-3 Syracuse),  and beat Bama handily. They went undefeated again and walloped everybody.  Only to face Super Juggernaut LSU...and they got stomped.

 

Goes to show it's ok to play in a mediocre league any have your chances. 

[Cacker Guy]

On 8/1/2023 at 9:35 AM, cartm25 said:

Clemson may not be THE model, but Clemson is definitely A model

I agree, and I think it is the same model the Patriots used:  clean up in a weak conference and be fresh for the playoffs.  I don't much like the model, but it can work.  Football season is a long, brutal grind and takes its toll on players' bodies.  Belicheck's Patriots always had a good seed, a first round bye, and played their first playoff in cold New England fairly well-rested and healthy.  And I hated them for it!