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Charles Fischer

Utah Debacle Could Make "Cristobal Reconsider his Future in Eugene"

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Jon Wilner (below) is suggesting it.  I find it stunning, since whatever Cristobal has in Eugene is what HE CREATES!

 

*** Oregon
Coach: Mario Cristobal


State of play: The magnitude of the loss in Salt Lake City cannot be understated — and we’re not talking about the margin of defeat, folks. That was a trajectory-changing, tenure-altering result, one that could very well make Cristobal reconsider his future in Eugene and his options elsewhere.


What’s next: In our estimation, the likelihood of Cristobal leaving has increased substantially, for two reasons: 1) The loss at Utah will undoubtedly make him question the ceiling in Eugene; 2) The options in his home state. Florida just fired Dan Mullen, and Miami, his alma mater, dismissed its athletic director — the presumed first step toward the firing of coach Manny Diaz. Combine those developments with the shellacking in Salt Lake City, and Cristobal could cast an eye homeward.


Chance of vacancy: 35%

 

Cristobal vs WSU 2021_Craig Strobeck.jpg

 

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Mr. FishDuck

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His ceiling in Eugene is his learning curve, end of story. 

 

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Yeah, we'll get a good measure of how high the ceiling is after the game on Saturday. 

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I also wonder if Chip or Slick have a different opinion on their ceiling in Eugene after leaving. Sometimes people look at their location as a hinderance, much like Scot Frost did.

 

I don't think Cristobal does, he is just keeping his head down and working his plan. Hopefully that plan is a working document, but I have a feeling the theme will stay the same. I am ok with that.

 

To clarify I don't think there is a ceiling in Eugene.  If you look for one you will find it, but Cristobal isn't looking for excuses, hopefully just the right doors for answers.

5v955t.jpg

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We got a glimpse of what the ceiling is in Eugene when we spanked Ohio State. The Ducks were one position away from having a “legitimate” shot at the Final Four, and that was quarterback. And that’s on Cristobal.

 

And I take exception with Wilner…..the most devastating loss this season was against Stanford, not Utah. And I’m tired of hearing about the call at the end of that game. It should have never been close. It was inexcusable and the blame for that rests with Cristobal as well. And what about all the ridiculously close games against mediocre teams that came down to the fourth quarter?

 

This team played far below its potential pretty much the entire season, except for one game.

 

The Ducks have the players, including backups when someone goes down, so who’s to blame?

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I really dont see Cristobal leaving the Ducks unless Rob Mullens shows him the exit, which wont happen for at least 1 more year.

The current situation is his chance to prove he can coach up his team.

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That makes no sense. Question the ceiling? The ceiling is what Mario makes it; it’s not imposed by other factors. 

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On 11/23/2021 at 11:02 AM, Haywarduck said:

I also wonder if Chip or Slick have a different opinion on their ceiling in Eugene after leaving. Sometimes people look at their location as a hinderance, much like Scot Frost did.

 

I don't think Cristobal does, he is just keeping his head down and working his plan. Hopefully that plan is a working document, but I have a feeling the theme will stay the same. I am ok with that.

 

To clarify I don't think there is a ceiling in Eugene.  If you look for one you will find it, but Cristobal isn't looking for excuses, hopefully just the right doors for answers.

5v955t.jpg

Great take.  MC proves you can recruit to EUG.  Now he needs to prove he has the chops to coach the kids up.  (And hire good assistants, let them coach etc.) Look at Darren's article today, last 6 years recruiting rankings, OR and UT.  What does that tell you?  Injuries are a thing this year, we are young, but 38-7?

 

Something tells me if he goes to Gainesville or Miami, he'll have recruiting classes approximately twice as good as here (#3 in a given year instead of #6, 5 instead of 10) even in the SEC...but 10-2 would be 7-5 at best in the SEC.  Year 3 and he's gone.  

 

Or, he solves that maze and coaches better HERE.  13-0 in the Pac with our talent and say, a better luck injury year...should be normal (errrr...without GA in week 1).  But, you make the playoffs regularly.  Then, you do what OK can't do...win it

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     Agree with the learning curve. Anyone paying the slightest attention can see MC is a determined learner. You have to thrive on your mistakes to become a skilled and highly capable head coach, and he checks that box. A great HC? To many variables and unknowns to venture there.

 

     The flip side to this coin remains the same: Can Mario’s Miami-bred sense of the game ever embrace the spirit and energy that is at the heart of Duck football?  That river flows all around him, but he has yet to jump in. 

 

   Until then, it may continue to feel like a kid with a shiny new car who keeps adding neat new parts to, but has yet to move it out of the drive way.

 

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On 11/23/2021 at 8:47 AM, Haywarduck said:

His ceiling in Eugene is his learning curve, end of story. 

 

Perfectly concisely stated.

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Mr. FishDuck

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I would also ask which learning, success curve do we think is reality?ERtO99ZWkAAxlTZ.jpg.8db8066071ef969a8f5badb3aa8d6fce.jpg

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I don’t see Mullens showing him the exit. I think 9-2 or 10-3 isn’t grounds for termination, not even close. Is the season a flop if the Ducks don’t make the playoff? Is that the bar now? Cristobal has done an amazing job in wooing top level talent to Eugene, and by all accounts he appears to be a class individual, someone the university feels proud to have as its football coach. But his coaching needs to improve, as does his game management. He is responsible for bringing the talent to Eugene, but may also be responsible for their less than impressive on field performance. That has to change.

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On 11/23/2021 at 9:27 AM, Washington Waddler said:

     Agree with the learning curve. Anyone paying the slightest attention can see MC is a determined learner. You have to thrive on your mistakes to become a skilled and highly capable head coach, and he checks that box. A great HC? To many variables and unknowns to venture there.

 

     The flip side to this coin remains the same: Can Mario’s Miami-bred sense of the game ever embrace the spirit and energy that is at the heart of Duck football?  That river flows all around him, but he has yet to jump in. 

 

   Until then, it may continue to feel like a kid with a shiny new car who keeps adding neat new parts to, but has yet to move it out of the drive way.

 

Perfectly stated……..

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I would like to say that MC has gotten better as a head coach since taking over. Does he still have problems? Absolutely... but the product he is putting on the field is better than what he started with. Don't compare him with Saban because there is only one Saban and he is an absolute anomaly in the football world.

 

In his first two years MC was really dependent on Herbert to make the whole team go and lets be blunt... Herbert didn't have much of a supporting cast around him. Sure we saw some nice games from Verdell and Dye and the offensive line was ok to good on average but Herbert really ignited that rebuilding process.

 

The 2019 class is the bedrock of his team right now and to say it once again... in terms of games played.. they have played 2 full seasons and are only NOW into their third as a class because 2020 was a mess of a year. 2020 was a practice season for the Pac-12 and it had mixed results for Oregon. The 2020 class is starting to come into their own. Then this year has been so riddled with injuries that the majority of the 2021 class has been pressed into service and burned their red shirts.

 

We tested our depth... we are out of depth now. That is the type of season it has really been. We made it this far into the season and survived wave after wave of minor and major injuries and now we don't have any more actual depth but freshman who would be otherwise red-shirted.

 

Realistically... most teams play for conference championships and make the playoff with STRONG 3rd and 4th year classes  with some youth sprinkled in as high flyers. Oregon this year is the opposite.. they are a super young team (50% of the team are still at Freshman eligibility and KT is a sophomore!) who have some 3rd and 4th year juniors and seniors sprinkled in... and I am going off FULL SEASON experience which includes a FULL OFF-SEASON.

 

Is Cristobal the coach to bring us to the promised land? Maybe, maybe not... but you know we are stuck with him for better or worse for the foreseeable future. Just think what this team can do next year with this year's experience and we don't have as many injuries to deal with.

Edited by David Marsh
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On 11/23/2021 at 11:38 AM, Charles Fischer said:

Jon Wilner (below) is suggesting it.  I find it stunning, since whatever Cristobal has in Eugene is what HE CREATES!

 

*** Oregon
Coach: Mario Cristobal


State of play: The magnitude of the loss in Salt Lake City cannot be understated — and we’re not talking about the margin of defeat, folks. That was a trajectory-changing, tenure-altering result, one that could very well make Cristobal reconsider his future in Eugene and his options elsewhere.


What’s next: In our estimation, the likelihood of Cristobal leaving has increased substantially, for two reasons: 1) The loss at Utah will undoubtedly make him question the ceiling in Eugene; 2) The options in his home state. Florida just fired Dan Mullen, and Miami, his alma mater, dismissed its athletic director — the presumed first step toward the firing of coach Manny Diaz. Combine those developments with the shellacking in Salt Lake City, and Cristobal could cast an eye homeward.


Chance of vacancy: 35%

 

Cristobal vs WSU 2021_Craig Strobeck.jpg

 

 

Although I did call Saturday's game in SLC a crucible coaching challenge for Mario, I find Wilner's take to be over the top. A loss at Utah defines Oregon's ceiling?

 

First, Oregon has handled Utah regularly since Utah joined the conference. 2nd, the conference will smarten up and go to an 8 game conference schedule. The Ducks should have been playing Portland State in Autzen Saturday night and not a 4th cross over game on the road. Bama played NM ST a week ago Saturday. Kentucky played NM ST this Saturday among the cupcakes the SEC played and consumed on 11/20/21.

 

Second, how does your PO upside improve at UF or Miami?

 

Way Over The Top.

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On 11/23/2021 at 9:45 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Second, how does your PO upside improve at UF or Miami?

 

It doesn't... and it's not even close.

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On 11/23/2021 at 9:48 AM, David Marsh said:

It doesn't... and it's not even close

 

     Mario’s opportunity to learn and grow in Eugene would all but disappear in his home state. That’s why you leave home in the first place.

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On 11/23/2021 at 9:45 AM, David Marsh said:

Realistically... most teams play for conference championships and make the playoff with STRONG 3rd and 4th year classes  with some youth sprinkled in as high flyers. Oregon this year is the opposite.. they are a super young team (50% of the team are still at Freshman eligibility and KT is a sophomore!) who have some 3rd and 4th year juniors and seniors sprinkled in... and I am going off FULL SEASON experience which includes a FULL OFF-SEASON.

 

David....this is a really, really good point.  Thanks for your analysis as always...

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Mr. FishDuck

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On 11/23/2021 at 9:45 AM, Jon Joseph said:

I find Wilner's take to be over the top. A loss at Utah defines Oregon's ceiling?

 

Agreed.  He is creating drama, and the team under Cristobal can go much, much higher in the future.  (and yes...that is dependent on his growth)  But stating, "this is it" is insulting to me.

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Mr. FishDuck

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On 11/23/2021 at 12:48 PM, David Marsh said:

 

It doesn't... and it's not even close.

 

David and I am not in the least being facetious, I can't help but wonder if Mario and the team for that matter could be helped by a top drawer psychologist? Many individuals and teams have gone in this direction and seen improvement. 

 

Someone from the outside who could perhaps help Mario and the team play on a more even keel? The roller coaster performances are so puzzling. Mario does not seem to be learning on his own when it comes to having the team prepared to play to its ability every week. Perhaps this would help?

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On 11/23/2021 at 9:02 AM, DUCKED said:

The Ducks were one position away from having a “legitimate” shot at the Final Four, and that was quarterback. And that’s on Cristobal.

Yes and No.  Not sure why the cupboard was so bare as to need AB.  Was it the OCs swinging and missing?  This is year 4 and you can't hit a homerun every time.

 

Remember that Rattler guy? Neither does OU.

 

Buck stops with Mario and he owns it, but let's see what we have next year between the three. 

 

 

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On 11/23/2021 at 1:22 PM, Steven A said:

Yes and No.  Not sure why the cupboard was so bare as to need AB.  Was it the OCs swinging and missing?  This is year 4 and you can't hit a homerun every time.

 

Remember that Rattler guy? Neither does OU.

 

Buck stops with Mario and he owns it, but let's see what we have next year between the three. 

 

 

 

But I wouldn't mind seeing Rattler at UO in 2022?

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On 11/23/2021 at 10:22 AM, Steven A said:

  Not sure why the cupboard was so bare as to need AB. 

 

 

Shining some light on that 'need' would expose a lot about MC's 'system' and his long term views.

 

In the past, he has been mostly prone to word salad answers and quick sound bites when asked more in depth questions. I suspect his focus is mostly about the OL and RB play, and the QB position isn't that important to him beyond having someone competent to hand off, run and occasionally pass the ball. He likes to play it safe, and a mediocre QB is fine with him. I fully anticipate they will look for another JC transfer or portal guy to, ya know, fill in and teach up the younger guys. 😄

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On 11/23/2021 at 10:07 AM, Jon Joseph said:

 

David and I am not in the least being facetious, I can't help but wonder if Mario and the team for that matter could be helped by a top drawer psychologist? Many individuals and teams have gone in this direction and seen improvement. 

 

Someone from the outside who could perhaps help Mario and the team play on a more even keel? The roller coaster performances are so puzzling. Mario does not seem to be learning on his own when it comes to having the team prepared to play to its ability every week. Perhaps this would help?

One would think maybe Mario would be open to this. He can't think he is a psychologist as well as a coach.

 

I know OSU under Riley had a guy come in as kind of a sports psychologist from Bend. He was part-time, but worked with the team. Many teams have a somebody come in from time to time. Even bringing in 'The Rock' to fire up the team would be a start.

 

This would be a very shrewd step and needed, in my opinion.

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Wilner puts Cristobal's chance of leaving at 35%. Mullins certainly isn't going to show MC the door. His 9 wins just got him an extended contract. The advantages at Oregon, with its amazing facilities and support from no less than Phil Knight, are legion. Mario has proven coaches like Kelly and Scott Frost wrong about the ability to recruit here.

 

Hayward Duck's observation that MC's ceiling is his learning curve is the end all to beat all statement on the topic, and David Marsh points out that MC's coaching is getting better. I would add that Mario's passion, attitude, and hard working approach to coaching his team fit well with the culture at the University of Oregon, and with this community.

 

Speaking as a person who was born in Eugene and raised my family here, and who has traveled the world, it's hard to imagine many better places to live and raise kids. The fans here are tough on you when you don't meet their expectations, but my SEC friends tell me it's much worse in places like Florida. Think football = religion. Programs like University of Miami and Florida are looking for a magic bullet of a coach who will come in and have immediate success. We all know that that isn't how it works. Willie Taggart learned that lesson the hard way.

 

A decision to leave Oregon comes down to how much MC misses living in Florida close to his family, and how much more money he gets offered over what he is currently making. Like the cliche says, everybody has their price. It would have to be a sweet enough deal to insure that if he fails, he would end up with enough money to be set for life (see Willie Taggart). Clearly, recent coaching contracts have proven that there is A LOT of money being thrown around out there. 

 

Will Mario leave for what appear to be greener pastures? Does he leave hoping that he can be a "magic bullet", or does he stay in a job where he is well paid, lives in a wonderful place, and has as much job security as one can ever hope for in the world of college football. It's a complex, multifaceted question that only Mario can answer. Time will tell.

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