Utah Debacle Could Make "Cristobal Reconsider his Future in Eugene"

[Charles Fischer]

Jon Wilner (below) is suggesting it.  I find it stunning, since whatever Cristobal has in Eugene is what HE CREATES!

 

*** Oregon
Coach: Mario Cristobal

State of play: The magnitude of the loss in Salt Lake City cannot be understated — and we’re not talking about the margin of defeat, folks. That was a trajectory-changing, tenure-altering result, one that could very well make Cristobal reconsider his future in Eugene and his options elsewhere.

What’s next: In our estimation, the likelihood of Cristobal leaving has increased substantially, for two reasons: 1) The loss at Utah will undoubtedly make him question the ceiling in Eugene; 2) The options in his home state. Florida just fired Dan Mullen, and Miami, his alma mater, dismissed its athletic director — the presumed first step toward the firing of coach Manny Diaz. Combine those developments with the shellacking in Salt Lake City, and Cristobal could cast an eye homeward.

Chance of vacancy: 35%

 

 

[Haywarduck]

His ceiling in Eugene is his learning curve, end of story. 

 

[30Duck]

Yeah, we'll get a good measure of how high the ceiling is after the game on Saturday. 

[Haywarduck]

I also wonder if Chip or Slick have a different opinion on their ceiling in Eugene after leaving. Sometimes people look at their location as a hinderance, much like Scot Frost did.

 

I don't think Cristobal does, he is just keeping his head down and working his plan. Hopefully that plan is a working document, but I have a feeling the theme will stay the same. I am ok with that.

 

To clarify I don't think there is a ceiling in Eugene.  If you look for one you will find it, but Cristobal isn't looking for excuses, hopefully just the right doors for answers.

[DUCKED]

We got a glimpse of what the ceiling is in Eugene when we spanked Ohio State. The Ducks were one position away from having a “legitimate” shot at the Final Four, and that was quarterback. And that’s on Cristobal.

 

And I take exception with Wilner…..the most devastating loss this season was against Stanford, not Utah. And I’m tired of hearing about the call at the end of that game. It should have never been close. It was inexcusable and the blame for that rests with Cristobal as well. And what about all the ridiculously close games against mediocre teams that came down to the fourth quarter?

 

This team played far below its potential pretty much the entire season, except for one game.

 

The Ducks have the players, including backups when someone goes down, so who’s to blame?

[1Ducker1]

I really dont see Cristobal leaving the Ducks unless Rob Mullens shows him the exit, which wont happen for at least 1 more year.

The current situation is his chance to prove he can coach up his team.

[jrw]

That makes no sense. Question the ceiling? The ceiling is what Mario makes it; it’s not imposed by other factors. 

[JDuck]

On 11/23/2021 at 11:02 AM, Haywarduck said:

I also wonder if Chip or Slick have a different opinion on their ceiling in Eugene after leaving. Sometimes people look at their location as a hinderance, much like Scot Frost did.

 

I don't think Cristobal does, he is just keeping his head down and working his plan. Hopefully that plan is a working document, but I have a feeling the theme will stay the same. I am ok with that.

 

To clarify I don't think there is a ceiling in Eugene.  If you look for one you will find it, but Cristobal isn't looking for excuses, hopefully just the right doors for answers.

Great take.  MC proves you can recruit to EUG.  Now he needs to prove he has the chops to coach the kids up.  (And hire good assistants, let them coach etc.) Look at Darren's article today, last 6 years recruiting rankings, OR and UT.  What does that tell you?  Injuries are a thing this year, we are young, but 38-7?

 

Something tells me if he goes to Gainesville or Miami, he'll have recruiting classes approximately twice as good as here (#3 in a given year instead of #6, 5 instead of 10) even in the SEC...but 10-2 would be 7-5 at best in the SEC.  Year 3 and he's gone.  

 

Or, he solves that maze and coaches better HERE.  13-0 in the Pac with our talent and say, a better luck injury year...should be normal (errrr...without GA in week 1).  But, you make the playoffs regularly.  Then, you do what OK can't do...win it

[Washington Waddler]

     Agree with the learning curve. Anyone paying the slightest attention can see MC is a determined learner. You have to thrive on your mistakes to become a skilled and highly capable head coach, and he checks that box. A great HC? To many variables and unknowns to venture there.

 

     The flip side to this coin remains the same: Can Mario’s Miami-bred sense of the game ever embrace the spirit and energy that is at the heart of Duck football?  That river flows all around him, but he has yet to jump in. 

 

   Until then, it may continue to feel like a kid with a shiny new car who keeps adding neat new parts to, but has yet to move it out of the drive way.

 

[Charles Fischer]

On 11/23/2021 at 8:47 AM, Haywarduck said:

His ceiling in Eugene is his learning curve, end of story. 

 

Perfectly concisely stated.

[Haywarduck]

I would also ask which learning, success curve do we think is reality?

[DUCKED]

I don’t see Mullens showing him the exit. I think 9-2 or 10-3 isn’t grounds for termination, not even close. Is the season a flop if the Ducks don’t make the playoff? Is that the bar now? Cristobal has done an amazing job in wooing top level talent to Eugene, and by all accounts he appears to be a class individual, someone the university feels proud to have as its football coach. But his coaching needs to improve, as does his game management. He is responsible for bringing the talent to Eugene, but may also be responsible for their less than impressive on field performance. That has to change.

[DUCKED]

On 11/23/2021 at 9:27 AM, Washington Waddler said:

     Agree with the learning curve. Anyone paying the slightest attention can see MC is a determined learner. You have to thrive on your mistakes to become a skilled and highly capable head coach, and he checks that box. A great HC? To many variables and unknowns to venture there.

 

     The flip side to this coin remains the same: Can Mario’s Miami-bred sense of the game ever embrace the spirit and energy that is at the heart of Duck football?  That river flows all around him, but he has yet to jump in. 

 

   Until then, it may continue to feel like a kid with a shiny new car who keeps adding neat new parts to, but has yet to move it out of the drive way.

 

Perfectly stated……..

[David Marsh]

I would like to say that MC has gotten better as a head coach since taking over. Does he still have problems? Absolutely... but the product he is putting on the field is better than what he started with. Don't compare him with Saban because there is only one Saban and he is an absolute anomaly in the football world.

 

In his first two years MC was really dependent on Herbert to make the whole team go and lets be blunt... Herbert didn't have much of a supporting cast around him. Sure we saw some nice games from Verdell and Dye and the offensive line was ok to good on average but Herbert really ignited that rebuilding process.

 

The 2019 class is the bedrock of his team right now and to say it once again... in terms of games played.. they have played 2 full seasons and are only NOW into their third as a class because 2020 was a mess of a year. 2020 was a practice season for the Pac-12 and it had mixed results for Oregon. The 2020 class is starting to come into their own. Then this year has been so riddled with injuries that the majority of the 2021 class has been pressed into service and burned their red shirts.

 

We tested our depth... we are out of depth now. That is the type of season it has really been. We made it this far into the season and survived wave after wave of minor and major injuries and now we don't have any more actual depth but freshman who would be otherwise red-shirted.

 

Realistically... most teams play for conference championships and make the playoff with STRONG 3rd and 4th year classes  with some youth sprinkled in as high flyers. Oregon this year is the opposite.. they are a super young team (50% of the team are still at Freshman eligibility and KT is a sophomore!) who have some 3rd and 4th year juniors and seniors sprinkled in... and I am going off FULL SEASON experience which includes a FULL OFF-SEASON.

 

Is Cristobal the coach to bring us to the promised land? Maybe, maybe not... but you know we are stuck with him for better or worse for the foreseeable future. Just think what this team can do next year with this year's experience and we don't have as many injuries to deal with.

Edited November 23, 2021 by David Marsh

[Jon Joseph]

On 11/23/2021 at 11:38 AM, Charles Fischer said:

Jon Wilner (below) is suggesting it.  I find it stunning, since whatever Cristobal has in Eugene is what HE CREATES!

 

*** Oregon
Coach: Mario Cristobal

State of play: The magnitude of the loss in Salt Lake City cannot be understated — and we’re not talking about the margin of defeat, folks. That was a trajectory-changing, tenure-altering result, one that could very well make Cristobal reconsider his future in Eugene and his options elsewhere.

What’s next: In our estimation, the likelihood of Cristobal leaving has increased substantially, for two reasons: 1) The loss at Utah will undoubtedly make him question the ceiling in Eugene; 2) The options in his home state. Florida just fired Dan Mullen, and Miami, his alma mater, dismissed its athletic director — the presumed first step toward the firing of coach Manny Diaz. Combine those developments with the shellacking in Salt Lake City, and Cristobal could cast an eye homeward.

Chance of vacancy: 35%

 

 

 

Although I did call Saturday's game in SLC a crucible coaching challenge for Mario, I find Wilner's take to be over the top. A loss at Utah defines Oregon's ceiling?

 

First, Oregon has handled Utah regularly since Utah joined the conference. 2nd, the conference will smarten up and go to an 8 game conference schedule. The Ducks should have been playing Portland State in Autzen Saturday night and not a 4th cross over game on the road. Bama played NM ST a week ago Saturday. Kentucky played NM ST this Saturday among the cupcakes the SEC played and consumed on 11/20/21.

 

Second, how does your PO upside improve at UF or Miami?

 

Way Over The Top.

[David Marsh]

On 11/23/2021 at 9:45 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Second, how does your PO upside improve at UF or Miami?

 

It doesn't... and it's not even close.

[Washington Waddler]

On 11/23/2021 at 9:48 AM, David Marsh said:

It doesn't... and it's not even close

 

     Mario’s opportunity to learn and grow in Eugene would all but disappear in his home state. That’s why you leave home in the first place.

[Charles Fischer]

On 11/23/2021 at 9:45 AM, David Marsh said:

Realistically... most teams play for conference championships and make the playoff with STRONG 3rd and 4th year classes  with some youth sprinkled in as high flyers. Oregon this year is the opposite.. they are a super young team (50% of the team are still at Freshman eligibility and KT is a sophomore!) who have some 3rd and 4th year juniors and seniors sprinkled in... and I am going off FULL SEASON experience which includes a FULL OFF-SEASON.

 

David....this is a really, really good point.  Thanks for your analysis as always...

[Charles Fischer]

On 11/23/2021 at 9:45 AM, Jon Joseph said:

I find Wilner's take to be over the top. A loss at Utah defines Oregon's ceiling?

 

Agreed.  He is creating drama, and the team under Cristobal can go much, much higher in the future.  (and yes...that is dependent on his growth)  But stating, "this is it" is insulting to me.

[Jon Joseph]

On 11/23/2021 at 12:48 PM, David Marsh said:

 

It doesn't... and it's not even close.

 

David and I am not in the least being facetious, I can't help but wonder if Mario and the team for that matter could be helped by a top drawer psychologist? Many individuals and teams have gone in this direction and seen improvement. 

 

Someone from the outside who could perhaps help Mario and the team play on a more even keel? The roller coaster performances are so puzzling. Mario does not seem to be learning on his own when it comes to having the team prepared to play to its ability every week. Perhaps this would help?

[Steven A]

On 11/23/2021 at 9:02 AM, DUCKED said:

The Ducks were one position away from having a “legitimate” shot at the Final Four, and that was quarterback. And that’s on Cristobal.

Yes and No.  Not sure why the cupboard was so bare as to need AB.  Was it the OCs swinging and missing?  This is year 4 and you can't hit a homerun every time.

 

Remember that Rattler guy? Neither does OU.

 

Buck stops with Mario and he owns it, but let's see what we have next year between the three. 

 

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 11/23/2021 at 1:22 PM, Steven A said:

Yes and No.  Not sure why the cupboard was so bare as to need AB.  Was it the OCs swinging and missing?  This is year 4 and you can't hit a homerun every time.

 

Remember that Rattler guy? Neither does OU.

 

Buck stops with Mario and he owns it, but let's see what we have next year between the three. 

 

 

 

But I wouldn't mind seeing Rattler at UO in 2022?

[DimpleDucks]

On 11/23/2021 at 10:22 AM, Steven A said:

  Not sure why the cupboard was so bare as to need AB. 

 

 

Shining some light on that 'need' would expose a lot about MC's 'system' and his long term views.

 

In the past, he has been mostly prone to word salad answers and quick sound bites when asked more in depth questions. I suspect his focus is mostly about the OL and RB play, and the QB position isn't that important to him beyond having someone competent to hand off, run and occasionally pass the ball. He likes to play it safe, and a mediocre QB is fine with him. I fully anticipate they will look for another JC transfer or portal guy to, ya know, fill in and teach up the younger guys. 

[Haywarduck]

On 11/23/2021 at 10:07 AM, Jon Joseph said:

 

David and I am not in the least being facetious, I can't help but wonder if Mario and the team for that matter could be helped by a top drawer psychologist? Many individuals and teams have gone in this direction and seen improvement. 

 

Someone from the outside who could perhaps help Mario and the team play on a more even keel? The roller coaster performances are so puzzling. Mario does not seem to be learning on his own when it comes to having the team prepared to play to its ability every week. Perhaps this would help?

One would think maybe Mario would be open to this. He can't think he is a psychologist as well as a coach.

 

I know OSU under Riley had a guy come in as kind of a sports psychologist from Bend. He was part-time, but worked with the team. Many teams have a somebody come in from time to time. Even bringing in 'The Rock' to fire up the team would be a start.

 

This would be a very shrewd step and needed, in my opinion.

[latracey]

Wilner puts Cristobal's chance of leaving at 35%. Mullins certainly isn't going to show MC the door. His 9 wins just got him an extended contract. The advantages at Oregon, with its amazing facilities and support from no less than Phil Knight, are legion. Mario has proven coaches like Kelly and Scott Frost wrong about the ability to recruit here.

 

Hayward Duck's observation that MC's ceiling is his learning curve is the end all to beat all statement on the topic, and David Marsh points out that MC's coaching is getting better. I would add that Mario's passion, attitude, and hard working approach to coaching his team fit well with the culture at the University of Oregon, and with this community.

 

Speaking as a person who was born in Eugene and raised my family here, and who has traveled the world, it's hard to imagine many better places to live and raise kids. The fans here are tough on you when you don't meet their expectations, but my SEC friends tell me it's much worse in places like Florida. Think football = religion. Programs like University of Miami and Florida are looking for a magic bullet of a coach who will come in and have immediate success. We all know that that isn't how it works. Willie Taggart learned that lesson the hard way.

 

A decision to leave Oregon comes down to how much MC misses living in Florida close to his family, and how much more money he gets offered over what he is currently making. Like the cliche says, everybody has their price. It would have to be a sweet enough deal to insure that if he fails, he would end up with enough money to be set for life (see Willie Taggart). Clearly, recent coaching contracts have proven that there is A LOT of money being thrown around out there. 

 

Will Mario leave for what appear to be greener pastures? Does he leave hoping that he can be a "magic bullet", or does he stay in a job where he is well paid, lives in a wonderful place, and has as much job security as one can ever hope for in the world of college football. It's a complex, multifaceted question that only Mario can answer. Time will tell.

[Southwest Duck]

If I were Mario I’d leave for Florida for these reasons;

 

1) Money, there is no way Oregon will pay 9-10 million a year.  The gators won’t blink an eye at that number

 

2) Recruiting,  with as good as a recruiter as MARIO is imagine what he could do in Gainesville, top 3 classes would be the norm.

 

3) COVID rules,  the crowds at Autzen haven’t been as good this year because of these rules and the pac12 pretty much lost a season last year compared to the sec.

 

4) Booing, I think the booing earlier this year really got to him and made him question his loyalty to the Ducks.

 

5) Multiple top tier jobs open at once,  Mario can drive up his price!

 

I hope he stays, but my gut says he’s gone after the civil war.

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

First things first. Every Duck coach who has left Oregon has failed miserably at their next job (Belotti included). I don’t know why, but these are the facts.

 

Second, if MC takes the Gator job he’s going to get 3 years to completely turn it around. This means beating Kirby and Saban. He will most likely be gone in 2 years if he posts .500 or below records. He better negotiate a massive buyout.
 

Third, Miami can’t pay him what he can earn at Oregon and they have terrible football facilities. He also has to deal with getting recruits who can qualify academically. Miami is a lot like Stanford and UCLA in that respect. It’s just not as easy to win there anymore.

 

I’m not saying he won’t leave but Oregon has a lot of upside if he decides to stay.

[David Marsh]

On 11/23/2021 at 10:07 AM, Jon Joseph said:

 

David and I am not in the least being facetious, I can't help but wonder if Mario and the team for that matter could be helped by a top drawer psychologist? Many individuals and teams have gone in this direction and seen improvement. 

 

Someone from the outside who could perhaps help Mario and the team play on a more even keel? The roller coaster performances are so puzzling. Mario does not seem to be learning on his own when it comes to having the team prepared to play to its ability every week. Perhaps this would help?

This I think would be interesting...

 

I do think MC and Co. need to take a really deep dive into their game management and pre-game prep.

 

As a classroom teacher I know some days I have to bring the energy for everyone to keep students engaged. Other days they bring enough themselves to help feed me. The Utah game neither the coaches or the players were bringing the energy or urgency to the game.

 

This team has a really high floor... but the coaches need to find a way to get them off the floor and playing to their highest levels.

[Charles Fischer]

On 11/23/2021 at 12:38 PM, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

Every Duck coach who has left Oregon has failed miserably at their next job (Belotti included). I don’t know why, but these are the facts.

 

Rich Brooks brought Kentucky out of a terrible state into at least a competitive state at 8-5 and they revere him there.  (And BTW....I too hate "Fact-Checkers!")  

 

[nw777b]

On 11/23/2021 at 10:35 AM, Haywarduck said:

One would think maybe Mario would be open to this. He can't think he is a psychologist as well as a coach.

 

I know OSU under Riley had a guy come in as kind of a sports psychologist from Bend. He was part-time, but worked with the team. Many teams have a somebody come in from time to time. Even bringing in 'The Rock' to fire up the team would be a start.

 

This would be a very shrewd step and needed, in my opinion.

Someday that guy might be Justin Herbert.

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

On 11/23/2021 at 4:34 PM, Charles Fischer said:

 

Rich Brooks brought Kentucky out of a terrible state into at least a competitive state at 8-5 and they revere him there.  (And BTW....I too hate "Fact-Checkers!")  

 

Yes, but his NEXT job after Oregon was the Rams. A job in which he was fired. I call it The Curse of the Duck.

Edited November 24, 2021 by DrJacksPlaidPants

[Charles Fischer]

On 11/23/2021 at 4:19 PM, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

Yes, but his NEXT job after Oregon was the Rams. A job in which he was fired. I call it The Curse of the Duck.

 

Ha-Ha.  The Fact-Checker gets Fact-Checked!  Now you did not distinguish between "next job" and "all jobs," but the debate is not worth any more of our time.  I get the point...

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

On 11/23/2021 at 7:44 PM, Charles Fischer said:

 

Ha-Ha.  The Fact-Checker gets Fact-Checked!  Now you did not distinguish between "next job" and "all jobs," but the debate is not worth any more of our time.  I get the point...

I was well aware that Rich Brooks did well in Lexington. I am also aware that Mike Belotti and Helfrich were pretty good on TV (Helfrich still is). 

[81DuckAlum]

On 11/23/2021 at 1:00 PM, Southwest Duck said:

 

 

I hope he stays, but my gut says he’s gone after the civil war.

I think he'll stay for the rest of the season.  But once there were rumblings in Miami weeks ago, I posted that my gut said he was going back home, and now that Florida has opened up also, I am afraid he's gone.

[WCCIDT]

You never know what might happen, but I don't think Florida is a serious threat. There is probably only one job that will be open this cycle that he would leave for, as long as Oregon is willing to pay Mario competitively. 

[Charles Fischer]

On 11/23/2021 at 10:31 PM, WCCIDT said:

You never know what might happen, but I don't think Florida is a serious threat. There is probably only one job that will be open this cycle that he would leave for, as long as Oregon is willing to pay Mario competitively. 

 

WCCIDT....great to see you join us and I would encourage you to post your thoughts often.  WELCOME!

[Haywarduck]

I think slicks move to his dream job, FSU, may be the lesson many coaches need to think about when they have a great job, with potential. The grass is always greener, paycheck bigger, but what do you want and is that attainable where you are?

 

I suppose I have always made lifestyle choices without going after the biggest bucks, but at some point these guys have to think about what is important. We all need to aim high, but if we can reach our goals from where we are, maybe we shouldn't chase after the next shiny thing.

 

Time will tell if Cristobal is attracted to any of the shiny offers headed his way. I tend to think the sun shines just enough for us to keep Cristobal and the coaches we need to come to greatest little college town around!

[rden]

Setting the MC record straight ...

 

In these MC discussions, I have seen it mentioned more than once that MC had a losing record as HC before coming to Oregon.

 

True. However ... the fact is, he ONLY HCed Florida International University, from 2007-2012. That program started in 2002. The team record from 2002-2006 was 5 wins, 41 losses. Then MC took over. In his years, their record was 27-47, including 2010 as conference champ, and they won their first-ever bowl game. 

 

So someone can accurately say he had a losing record as HC, and it is still a 100% misleading statement. 

[1Ducker1]

Today is another day -Lets hope that the Ducks beat the Beavers, if not we will have ample time to discuss the merits of Coach Cristobal.

[Arctuniol]

They need consistency. We have had rotating OC, and DC for the last 4 years, new systems in, all because of the success at Oregon. You don't hear about that happening elsewhere as much as it does at Oregon it seems. We are getting a lot of one or two and done coordinators. Makes it hard to get consistent, and give the offense and defense time to really learn the system and get good. I think the mistake this year was playing AB. He is a good runner, gives them a shot to win, but his inconsistencies have shown in the losses and the close games with inferior opponents

 

. I think starting one of the newer QBs would have paid dividends in the future. What worries me, is Cristobol will go after a transfer portal QB, make them the starter again, say his young players are not ready, then we have more players leaving the team.

 

QB development is an issue, I also think he needs to allow his OC to do their thing, and the DC to do theirs. I love the toughness, the line play, but he needs to let go a bit, let his team develop. I get injuries this year, but that is why they recruited at a high level.