I am a Blockhead, a Bumbling Buffoon...or am I Brilliant?

[Charles Fischer]

I am both.  We ALL are, as we are all correct often with our assertions, and then can be completely wrong--but nobody remembers. I predicted that Dilly will stay--even placing a friendly bet with people.  I am in idiot, a blockhead, a buffoon, but even with that admission I still maintain--he is not ready IMHO.

 

Yet I am not completely stupid, as I thought I called things correctly about Dan Lanning taking on too much unnecessary risk in an article earlier this week.  Unfortunately, he proved my premise only too well in the rivalry game, not learning the lessons from the Washington fiasco.

 

My point is--we are all wrong a good bit of the time; if you added up all the surprises you did not foresee coming into the season--you would be humbled a bit.  Thus when we have posters who assert with an air of authority that "they know the truth" on a particular topic?  

 

I roll my eyes.

 

I think my track record is pretty decent, yet I also thought Oregon's defense would be the surprise of the conference this year.  (It was, but not the way I hoped) Ditto with the Dilly prediction.

 

And certainly the weekly game score prediction contest continues to show us all how fallible we are.  

 

I am curious...what were your big predictions you voiced or had privately that went way-wrong?

 

 

 

[Log Haulin]

I was right about Nix, wrong about going 11-1. Nix got hurt so who knows. I was painfully wrong about Ducks defense. What a horrible performance this season.

[The Kamikaze Kid]

Staying and building a better resume then leaving for a solid gig like Lanning did was the smart career path. Taking a promotion to captain of a sinking ship will set him back several years. This reminds me a lot of Lane Kiffin. He was also the young wonder boy assistant that was promoted to head coach way to soon. After a humiliating firing from USC on a tarmac after coming home from another loss, he eventually needed to return to assistant coaching to build back his reputation. I see a similar career path for Dilly which is why I also predicted he'd do the smart thing and stay awhile longer.

 

Sometimes predictions assume people will follow the head not the heart.

[lownslowav8r]

I, too, thought or defense would be elite. It was adequate when Nix was healthy and Dillingham was not distracted, but not a part of the team that was "good enough" when the offense struggled.  

[jrw]

It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.

 

 - Attributed to Danish politician Karl Kristian Steincke.

[Autzen Magic]

Like many, I thought the D would be better than it was and the O struggle more than than it did. More specifically, I predicted that the combination of Dorlus, Johnson, Sewell and Landing’s creative schemes would result in the Ducks’  D living in the opponents’ backfield.  In reality, the Ducks’ D got very little pressure on opposing QBs. 
 

I also thought for sure Cardwell would have a breakout season!

[HappyToBeADuck]

Before the season started I predicted and even bragged to friends, family, customers and my insuffrable dog friends that the Duck Linebackers would dominate in DL's defensive schemes. 

 

Goes to show how little i know about DL's defensive schemes and college linebackers.

 

Those linebackers disappeared in the 4th quarter yesterday. My phone was blowing up from all directions reminding me how little i know.

 

They didnt call me a buffoon but had some choice name calling nonetheless.

 

I am deeply disappointed but i sure love the Ducks.....

[Kurt Rambis]

On 11/27/2022 at 5:30 PM, Autzen Magic said:

I also thought for sure Cardwell would have a breakout season!

Same here on Cardwell.  Couldn't figure out why they were bringing in both Whittingham and Irving.  

 

I thought Bo Nix had the opportunity to be a huge bust and set back the development of the other two QBs.

 

I thought the D would be pretty good - especially the LBs.

 

I thought the Ducks were probably a 3 - 4 loss team...so sadly I'm correct there.

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

I thought Miami would be in the ACC championship game.

[Duck Fan 76]

I definitely missed some of the early indicators on defensive play and that was humbling with 20/20 hindsight.  The truth is football is one of the hardest games to analyze as the outcomes are so entangled with individual matchups and scheme choices.  

[Desert Duck]

Once in a while, I make a confident prediction... and I'm right --- once in a while. But when it comes to CFB, I'm pretty sure that I'm wrong than I'm right.

 

But regarding Dillingham, I could not see how a 32 year old guy, who was born and raised down in the Tempe area, went to ASU, is highly thought of, and whose roots run very deep in the Valley of the Sun, would possibly turn down the opportunity to take over as ASU head coach... if it was presented to him. I also knew that for over a month, KD's name was at or near the top of the ASU list.

 

My only question was would ASU formally offer him the job, with the right package. ASU does not really have the option of attracting a known proven head coach right now. Because the program is in such disarray at this point, there is very little downside for Dillingham in taking this opportunity. If he succeeds, he'll be a rockstar. If he doesn't, I don't think it will cause his stock to fall.

 

9 years ago, KD was a 23 year old high school OC at Chaparral High School in Scottsdale. 9 years later, he's a Pac-12 HC. Quite the meteoric climb. 

 

Edited November 27, 2022 by Desert Duck

[Ktmguy2018]

Well, I posted a thread a few weeks ago regarding how wrong I was about Ty Thompson.

 

If a 50-60% Bo is still THAT much better than your backup, your backup is not very good.

 

I don't remember if I made a prediction about Oregon's record, but I echo everyone else who BELIEVED that our defense would be the standard in the PAC-12.  Yesterday, I felt as helpless as when Ohio State decided to run Elliott over the faces of our defense in the NC.

 

In regards to Dilly...I will go out on a limb and say I see another Scott Frost situation.  I don't want him to fail but the environment he's going into has that vibe.  When your QB transfers out and WAS leading an SEC squad to a top 5 ranking (until last night), something is really wrong.

 

The more seasoned part of me says we can all take a lesson from what is occurring with that little team up there in Ann Arbor.  Harbaugh certainly had some very difficult years and was on the proverbial "Hot Seat" for years.  Not anymore.

 

"The process" can work with patience.  But that's a precious commodity these days.

 

Oh yeah, I was wrong about how much patience I have.  Found that out yesterday. 

Edited November 27, 2022 by Ktmguy2018

[GODUCKS15]

My biggest flop this year was thinking Seven would be the breakout player. He's not even on the team anymore. Can't get much wronger than that.

I did get the W/L right though. I had the Ducks finishing 9-3. Just didn't think the losses would be WA and OrSt. I thought it would be UCLA and UT. 

 

[JDuck]

The Defense.  Finally, a healthy Flowe to go with Noah.  Flowe has 1 tackle in each of the last 3 games.  Zero pressure on QBs.  Our O line allowed hardly any sacks, didn't think opponents O lines wouldn't either!

[PittDuck]

On 11/27/2022 at 10:44 AM, Ktmguy2018 said:

 

In regards to Dilly...I will go out on a limb and say I see another Scott Frost situation.  I don't want him to fail but…

 

 

Unfortunately, if DL doesn’t hit a home run with his next OC, he could become another Scott Frost situation…

[Ktmguy2018]

On 11/27/2022 at 11:03 AM, JDuck said:

The Defense.  Finally, a healthy Flowe to go with Noah.  Flowe has 1 tackle in each of the last 3 games.  Zero pressure on QBs.  Our O line allowed hardly any sacks, didn't think opponents O lines wouldn't either!

The best play I saw Flowe make this year was OBLITERATING the receiver in the Utah game so Bennett could get the pick.

 

I am with you though, I thought that tandem would be a holy terror.

[David Marsh]

I said we were going to the Rose Bowl after the Georgia loss. 

 

If Nix didn't get hurt I think I would be correct in that prediction but not anymore. 

 

Also... Last year I said that Oregon should give Thompson an opportunity to play and I think that is a glaring mistake to say because I'm pretty sure we'd have a lose record two years in a row if he was the starter. 

 

There is a reason an injured Nix started over a healthy Thompson. 

[12Duck72]

Like everyone I thought the defense would improve and be somewhat dominant by now. Wasn't even close. Not sure if Lupoi is the right guy or not. And to be honest I missed on Nix and Thompson. I thought it would be reversed. Win wise I had them losing 2 or 3 but not losing to the Fuskies or the Beavs. Lanning for me had a better first season than I was expecting minus the 4th downs. 

[EzDucksIt]

I thought Chip had our number finally.  It is amazing to me, when we play Chip, he does not look like the guy Charles started analyzing for us on Offensive play calls and building this platform as a informational mecca on the blur.  Even his play calling but mostly how he handles himself.  He looks like a man taken down the ladder, a lot of rungs and is the shell of whom he was at Oregon.

 

Dan Lanning, on the other hand, reminds me of Mike Bellotti but more humble.  His youth, shines through but he has assembled a class plan to help him navigate the learning process of a New Head Coach.  Now is this from him or outside help.  I would almost guess, that if the peeps that hired him, they gave him some helpful input.  But picking up the Chief of Staff, that is a forward thinking HC.  Staff that does the leg work with out violating NCAA rules.  You have to like that.

 

Recruiting takes SO MUCH TIME, that coaches do not have a life.  Eliminate some of that leg work, then the pay checks seem manageable.  Mario seemed to burn out his staff of coaches.  But to me, that is how Mario, keeps his job, recruiting.  He has not shown to be a great developer of talent, the talent usually has the personalities to develop themselves.

 

I just feel comfortable with this coach.  He will find the pieces and people to make his dream come true.  His Chief of Staff, has said he has seen the "ands" in him.  We will too.  I too believe when Ty was not allowed to lead the team, he understood Ty was not the guy.  But Jay too, not even getting a sniff of the field?  That is two, back ups that have been taking up space on the bench with scholarships.

 

The limit of 25 recruits a year?  The clarity of the number 85 as the new normal.  I do not quite understand all the details but it seems as if your roster is in constant transition with the portal and NIL.  I am guessing Charles may have an article, that explains it more easily to some of us less knowledgeable persons as myself.

 

Charles, to you sir, as always, not an easy job but one can tell the love and devotion, you put in to this endeavor.  Thanks for allowing me to enjoy the Ducks from your vantage point and home.  I felt welcome and entertained again.  Thank you sir.

[CountryProf]

All things considered, we had a better season than I thought we would back in August. I had very little faith in Bo Nix then and thought there was too much hype from some quarters about a head coach and an offensive coordinator that were taking those positions for the first time. Now, I'm very happy we had all of them, even though we only got to keep Dillingham for a little while. And, like others, I thought our defense was going to be markedly better than they were

[Mike West]

I thought the defense would be dramatically better. Someone asked last night if Mario should still be blamed for this year ( awesome question).  I can't say yes totally, but the  defense , which is mostly Mario's players, was so up and down ( completely a Mario trait) that I want to blame him.

 

 I thought the defense would be a huge plus this year.  Isn't it awesome we don't get penalized financially for being wrong? LOL 

 

I did believe Nix would be much better with an OL and WR set.  I was more impressed than I imagined.  

 

I expected this team to be a playoff contender.  They were, then they weren't.  Then they were. Then they weren't.  

 

I do wonder what would have happened if Nix waited oh so little longer before he took off for the first down/ end zone at the end of the Fusky game.  

 

I know people are frustrated about Lanning going for it on that fourth down miss.  Does anyone really believe our defense would have stopped Oregon State after a punt instead? I certainly don't.  

 

I repeat my fuming post from a couple of weeks ago: I'd be pretty mad if I was an opponent on offense against OBD and I didn't have a career performance.  That OBD held Utah to 17 points is a bloody miracle.