Do Any of These Potential Pac-12 Expansion Targets Interest You?

[Pennsylvania Duck]

How potential Pac-12 expansion targets did this season

 

Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff has indicated countless times that the Pac-12

isn't thinking about expansion at the moment, which is extremely difficult to believe.

 

Regardless of what he says, there is still a belief that expansion will be in the cards somewhere down the line

for the conference that will be losing both USC and UCLA after this next season. Like Pac-12 insider John Canzano

and myself have both identified, there about five to six schools that the Pac-12 is realistically looking at to add in the future. 

 

Since all of these programs are not currently on the radar for Pac-12 fans, I thought it would be

interesting to check in on these candidates and how they finished the season...Do any teams interest you?

 

How potential Pac-12 expansion targets did this season

WWW.SI.COM

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The Pac-12 realignment rumors could resurface at anytime

 

[DUCati855]

While none of them EXCITE me. I feel SDSU and UNLV make the most since. Both will eventually be able to get on par (competition wise) with the rest of the Pac. Both will add eyeballs to the conference.

[Charles Fischer]

San Diego State is fringe IMHO, and all the great San Diego players we have recruited in the past will have no need to leave home to be in the Pac-12.  Meh, but I understand.

 

SMU has a 32,000 seat stadium; do we really need another OSU or WSU who take from pie, and not enhance it?

 

As for the others?

 

 

[noDucknewby]

On 12/27/2022 at 4:41 PM, DUCati855 said:

While none of them EXCITE me. I feel SDSU and UNLV make the most since. Both will eventually be able to get on par (competition wise) with the rest of the Pac. Both will add eyeballs to the conference.

Agree. These programs are not there yet, but have the potential to be competitive in a Power 5 conference plus they have substantial population bases and Vegas is probably the biggest up-and-coming sports city.

 

Fresno and Boise may be better in football but they just don't bring the eyeballs.

 

Just hard to excited about any of them though.

Edited December 28, 2022 by noDucknewby

[1Ducker1]

I would go with UNLV and San Diego St.

[Log Haulin]

I like Fresno St. I think they have the highest ceiling and will make the Pac a better conference. Purely from a football perspective .

 

Bulldogs would be top 5 in pac within 5 years. Rabid fan base, just a gritty atmosphere. They would be a solid add for the Pac, IMO.

 

Then probably San Diego St. Foot print in SoCal is important. Pac has to have a presence down south.

 

Would love Boise St. Same reasons as Fresno St. But ya have to stay in Southern California. 

[OceaniaDuck]

San Diego State and Fresno State for me. Both fall within the geographic footprint of the PAC-12 and have great potential. The PAC-12 needs as much California presence as it can get. UNLV just doesn't have that great a football history and Boise State and SMU, although they both have good football teams as of late, would only be marginally valuable to the conference at best.

 

[kirklandduck]

I'd take 4 teams:

 

SDSU - Need the South Cali media market

 

Fresno St - Competitive 10 win team plus a Cali media market

 

UNLV - LV media market plus we have the Pac12 championship there every year

 

SMU - Texas recruiting exposure 

 

[DUCati855]

Reading through the comments of this post suggest most are stating their opinions solely with football in mind. Inviting an institution to join the conference is about more than JUST football. While football is a HUGE consideration you also must also look at the impact to all other sports, academics, and general fit of the university. As stated previously I feel SDSU and UNLV check the most boxes.

[Ktmguy2018]

On 12/28/2022 at 10:39 AM, DUCati855 said:

Reading through the comments of this post suggest most are stating their opinions solely with football in mind. Inviting an institution to join the conference is about more than JUST football. While football is a HUGE consideration you also must also look at the impact to all other sports, academics, and general fit of the university. As stated previously I feel SDSU and UNLV check the most boxes.

My thoughts exactly...I think we all agree that football carries the majority of sports revenue, but can these schools be competitive in basketball, baseball, soccer, and even track. 

 

Yeah, I know that those sports are not going to draw the 45k+ fans that football does, but when I am going through football withdrawals and need some kind of sports contest to watch, I want it to be competitive...

 

And I would take in every away Duck game against UNLV just an excuse to go to Vegas!! 

 

"Sorry Hon, can't paint the house this weekend...the Ducks are playing UNLV in Vegas...yeah I know it's badminton but I still support em!!"

 

Edited December 28, 2022 by Ktmguy2018

[noDucknewby]

Too bad Hawaii is such a dumpster fire, they seem like a natural fit.

[QuackyQuack]

On 12/28/2022 at 11:10 AM, noDucknewby said:

Too bad Hawaii is such a dumpster fire, they seem like a natural fit.

Travel would be such a sky high cost for all other sports other than football. 

[David Marsh]

SDSU and UNLV are probably the best two to be honest. 

 

They will be bottom feeders in the conference for some time but they have the most growth potential. Boise State doesn't get the PAC a good media market and Fresno State also has a limited media market, even though both are better football programs than SDSU and UNLV. 

 

Remember... Utah had like three 5-7 seasons after joining the PAC because of growing pains and now they are a strong team. Colorado is still bad and they came from a P5 conference. 

 

SDSU and UNLV will take years after joining the PAC to become something good on the field but an injection of money by joining the conference will help them alinn the way. 

 

But in truth I don't think the conference needs to expand for expansion sake. The pie must grow over time to make expansion worth while or else we are just feeding more mouths with a smaller pie.

[DUCati855]

On 12/28/2022 at 11:53 AM, David Marsh said:

But in truth I don't think the conference needs to expand for expansion sake. The pie must grow over time to make expansion worth while or else we are just feeding more mouths with a smaller pie.

I would agree with this if we still had some sort of presence in SoCal. SoCal is a huge recruiting bed that the Pac needs to keep in it's footprint. At minimum the Pac needs SDSU. But, if your adding one you may as well add two. UNLV is the next best IMO.

[David Marsh]

On 12/28/2022 at 12:02 PM, DUCati855 said:

I would agree with this if we still had some sort of presence in SoCal. SoCal is a huge recruiting bed that the Pac needs to keep in it's footprint. At minimum the Pac needs SDSU. But, if your adding one you may as well add two. UNLV is the next best IMO.

The interesting thing will be how much of a recruiting pitch would USC and UCLA have when they are in the B1G?

 

Come to USC/UCLA you will get to stay at home for half your games (same as right now) and then travel 5+ hours per away game and play in some COLD environments. You will also have to contend with Ohio State and Michigan to try and get to the playoff!

 

I think that will become the narrative by 2027, they will need to be in the B1G for about three years for the missery to really set in. Meanwhile, Oregon and other PAC schools can say... stay close-ish to home for all your games and you don't have to travel as much. Also if you win the conference you get to go to the playoff... Done.

 

Not saying this will be the case but it is certainly a scenario.

[DUCati855]

On 12/28/2022 at 12:22 PM, David Marsh said:

The interesting thing will be how much of a recruiting pitch would USC and UCLA have when they are in the B1G?

 

Come to USC/UCLA you will get to stay at home for half your games (same as right now) and then travel 5+ hours per away game and play in some COLD environments. You will also have to contend with Ohio State and Michigan to try and get to the playoff!

 

I think that will become the narrative by 2027, they will need to be in the B1G for about three years for the missery to really set in. Meanwhile, Oregon and other PAC schools can say... stay close-ish to home for all your games and you don't have to travel as much. Also if you win the conference you get to go to the playoff... Done.

 

Not saying this will be the case but it is certainly a scenario.

I see where you are coming from. I fear that recruits (and their families) will be heavily influenced by what games are being shown on their TV set on a weekly basis. Right now all of SoCal gets most Pac-12 games with basic cable/Pac-12 Network LA. Once that is gone... who knows. It feels like a HUGE risk not to have a SoCal presence.

[Drex Heikes]

If you judged on media markets, San Diego definitely. But Las Vegas isn’t truly second. It has 755K tv households. Fresno has 585K but those numbers are hugely misleading. The Fresno market includes only a 30-40 mile radius around the city and does not count the rest of the Central Valley, which is a huge part of the Fresno State fan base, from Bakersfield to Sacramento and even beyond. Those communities identify with the farm town team more than the Bay Area ones. 
 

Las Vegas has no surrounding communities to speak of. It’s isolated. 
 

If you add up the Central Valley viewership, it is well past Las Vegas. Central Valley total population is 6.5 million, nearly three times the size of Clark County NV at 2.3M. 
 

Academically, Fresno and San Diego states are in the Cal State system, which just won approval to start offering PhD programs. They are a step below the UC system schools but are rising and are much closer to the academic standards of the Pac 12 than the other teams mentioned. 
 

Football: UNLV is rarely competitive in its own conference. 

[David Marsh]

On 12/28/2022 at 12:38 PM, DUCati855 said:

I see where you are coming from. I fear that recruits (and their families) will be heavily influenced by what games are being shown on their TV set on a weekly basis. Right now all of SoCal gets most Pac-12 games with basic cable/Pac-12 Network LA. Once that is gone... who knows. It feels like a HUGE risk not to have a SoCal presence.

I would say teams like Oregon, Washington and Utah are going to get a lot of the network games or games on ESPN or FS1 as well. Good teams in the PAC will get plenty of visitibliy. This last year USC was relegated a lot to Pac-12 Network when Oregon was on a major network. Granted the B1G Network has way better distribution right now than the Pac-12 Network but I can see a bit of that changing in time.

 

If the LA schools are on the B1G Network too frequently that doesn't help their recruiting. Granted, I think FOX will be happy to help the B1G out and make sure they aren't on the conference network too often. However, as ESPN has been left by the wayside in B1G media rights I can see them broadcasting more PAC games at that point too.

 

I guess in the end we haven't got a clue what this is going to really look like... but it is fun to guess. But I do feel a presence in Souther California would be nice as long as it doesn't come at too great of a cost.

 

With the new conference championship format why not just the Pac-11? Just add SDSU to keep us in Southern California and playing the waiting game on anyone else. No rule that says a conference must have an even amount of teams... well scheduling might get a bit annoying potentially.

[GeotechDuck]

SDSU and UNLV are both in major sports media markets and are both R1 research schools.  They both have potential to be solid contributors and fit well into the PAC-10 landscape.  Neither adds value to the conference immediately, but the conference should consider them for their future potential.  It is not like the PAC-10 is in a position of power right now.    

 

FSU, BSU and SMU?  IMO, none of these other 3 schools should get any consideration:       

 

FSU & BSU - They have had some football success, which is why the names are probably floating out there.  However, I think there is a 0% chance the Pac-10 adds these schools.  They don't align with the other universities in the conference from an academic or Olympic sport standpoint.  Not only are they not AAU Universities, they are not even R1 or R2 research schools.  They do not increase the value of the conference or provide a significant increase in viewership.    

 

SMU - A religious school with a 30k seat stadium that is not within a reasonable footprint of the Pac-10.  Throw in the fact that the Big-12 didn't offer in their last expansion, because they are not one of the 5 most watched college teams in Texas.  There is a 0% chance that Cal and Stanford will agree to add SMU just for the religious part, let alone all the other issues that come with adding that school.  

 

I would argue that Colorado State, Utah State, and University of Nevada Reno should have a better shot than FSU, BSU, or SMU.  Although, I have their chances at 0% right now too, but at least they kind of fit the profile of a typical Pac-10 membership school.      

Edited December 28, 2022 by GeotechDuck

[Washington Waddler]

On 12/28/2022 at 12:22 PM, David Marsh said:

Come to USC/UCLA you will get to stay at home for half your games (same as right now) and then travel 5+ hours per away game and play in some COLD environments. You will also have to contend with Ohio State and Michigan to try and get to the playoff!

     Okay, but this invites the opposing view, so I’ll play devil’s advocate in order to help move this conversation forward and towards a relevant solution.

 

     Yes, games will often be tougher and further away without the comforts of home, but that’s the price you must pay if you expect to play for a contending  team in a relevant league that contends for national championships year in and year out.
 

     Yes, you can choose to stay behind and play in the comfort zone of a league now being considered by national media as an afterthought, and take the chance (like a mid-major in basketball) that you’ll win the league championship every year and get their one invite to the play-offs.

 

     Or, you can step up and into the big leagues and have a real shot at realizing your dreams. What’ll it be?
 

     Something like this is what USC/UCLA coaches will be stuffing in the ears of elite SouCal recruits. What do we do, and what do we say to counter that?

[David Marsh]

On 12/28/2022 at 12:46 PM, GeotechDuck said:

I would argue that Colorado State, Utah State, and University of Nevada Reno should have a better shot than FSU, BSU, or SMU.  Although, I have their chances at 0% right now too, but at least they kind of fit the profile of a typical Pac-10 membership school.      

If we didn't have the southern California void I would say Utah State and Colorado State would be fine additions as it adds more into that rocky mountain region and would alleviate some of the travel stress from both Utah and Colorado right now because they would have additional games that were close to them. 

 

But from a media market perspective it doesn't help us. 

[TexasDuck]

Fresno State would bring a Texas Tech kind of vibe to the conference.  I say this in the best sense.  Great fan base, blue collar, always tough.  I’d love to see it happen.  

[noDucknewby]

On 12/28/2022 at 11:51 AM, QuackyQuack said:

Travel would be such a sky high cost for all other sports other than football. 

Doesn't seem to be too big of a hurdle for Group of 5 Mountain West Conference.

[David Marsh]

On 12/28/2022 at 1:05 PM, Washington Waddler said:

Something like this is what USC/UCLA coaches will be stuffing in the ears of elite SouCal recruits. What do we do, and what do we say to counter that?

Clemson... The ACC was awful when the Clemson was making their National Championship runs and in a lot of ways that helped them. Go undefeated and if injuries do happen the backups can make up for it against lesser competition. 

 

Able to have a healthy team for the playoffs themselves. 

 

And with a 12 team playoff you're going to want to get out of the regular season with an intact team. 

 

And thanks for playing devil's advocate. 

[McDuck]

On 12/28/2022 at 1:28 PM, David Marsh said:

And with a 12 team playoff you're going to want to get out of the regular season with an intact team. 

Isn't the prevailing wisdom the top four teams will get a first round bye and the remaining four games will be played at the home field of the higher seed?  I think a 12-0 or 11-1 Pac-?? champion would have a seeding advantage against most 10-2 or 9-3 SEC or B1G also rans.

[DUCati855]

Oregon (UW and Utah as well) will be fine regardless of any of this. These schools will get nationally televised games, recruit nationally, and  get eyeballs from SoCal.

 

I feel, if we do not want to turn into a ACC type of conference, we need a SoCal presence to help the less fortunate of the conference in recruiting. Of these schools only ASU was able to recruit 4/5 star talent well outside of SoCal. Arizona 50%, OSU 100% of 4/5 star talent came from SoCal. The lower half of our conference is already having trouble getting talented players. It likely only gets worse if we lose this area from our conference footprint.

[1Funduck]

Do any appeal to me? Uhhh, no. Not one of them as a team. Now, as a TV market, that's another story. San Diego and Dallas aren't too bad for viewership ratings. Bring those teams. All the others feel like we are settling. Who's kidding who, we are settling for any team at this juncture. 

 

If you want the PAC to survive then you go after viewership. It's all about the eyeballs($$$). 

[Duck 1972]

With SMU we would have similar travel problems we are castigating the so cal teams for. I vote SDSU and I prefer Fresno St over UNLV.. it gives us great so cal location and those teams would help getting into that TV market.

[OregonDucks]

On 12/28/2022 at 11:51 AM, QuackyQuack said:

Travel would be such a sky high cost for all other sports other than football. 

 

Let's just merge Oregon and Hawaii.  It would have been nice taking winter semester classes in Honolulu!!!

 

We already both wear green...

[Legion]

I am probably going to get some criticism, but I would go with the following:

San Diego St.

Fresno St.

SMU

Tulane

 

Networks wants/need La content. The conference has to expand out of the pac time zone. 

I’d still like to see a merger with the ACC, however that is unlikely.

 

None of these schools above should receive equal revenue until a set performance expectation in football. In addition, all schools that qualify for the playoff would receive a 80% of revenue, leaving the conference the remaining 20%. This will place a greater emphasis on performance in football.

[VegasDuck]

Its mind boggling how this conference let USC and UCLA leave. Why should the Ducks even stay? Take UW and bolt for a the Big 10. 

[OregonDucks]

I agree with other posters.  San Diego State seems like a no brainer.  I like the idea of adding UNLV to lock up the Las Vegas market but if we only go with San Diego State, I would be good with that.

 

No thank you to the other schools mentioned.  They just don't add enough to the table.