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QUAAACK: Sheldon QB Brock Thomas is a Duck

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WWW.HUDL.COM

Watch Brock Thomas's videos and highlights on Hudl. More info: Sheldon High School - Boys Varsity Football / QB, FS, CB / Class...

 

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     It’s commits like this that tell me the heart beat of the college game hasn’t yet flat-lined. For all the NIL zombies, there’s still a few out there wanting to live the dream.

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Brock is a good name for overachieving quarterbacks these days.

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I'm trying to figure this one out.  PWO?  I hope. 

 

Look, maybe this guy is the next Bryce Young, but there would seem to be something odd about a scholie going to a tiny QB whose offers outside of Oregon are Navy, Portland State, Northern Arizona, Eastern Washington, and Air Force.  It ain't 1979 any more...

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It has to be a PWO, I just can't see us giving him a schollie, he's a good high school QB, but his tape doesn't make me think he's close to a Pac-12 QB, plus if you look at his offers two are from teams that run the option, that tells you he has some athleticism, but he's not going to be asked to throw the ball much.  

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The 247 link in the original post lists him as a walk on.

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Ducks land commitment from in-state QB Brock Thomas

 

On Sunday night, it was announced that 3-star QB Brock Thomas, a senior at Sheldon, was committing to Oregon.

It’s unclear whether he is joining the Ducks as a preferred walk-on or not, but with Bo Nix, Ty Thompson, and

Austin Novosad already on the scholarship count, it’s not crazy to presume that.

 

DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM

The Ducks added hometown QB Brock Thomas to the roster, keeping the Sheldon Irish passer in town.

 

 

The versatile signal caller put together a stellar career with the Irish helping to guide the team to a 12-1 record in 2022.

Thomas finished the final season of his career with 41 passing touchdowns and 2,895 yards passing against just five

interceptions. He also used his speed to score 17 rushing touchdowns on 128 carries for 747 yards rushing.

 

OREGON.RIVALS.COM

Oregon added a commitment from local 2023 quarterback Brock Thomas on Sunday night.

 

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Stetson Bennett 2.0 works for me.

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On 1/16/2023 at 6:32 AM, McDuck said:

The 247 link in the original post lists him as a walk on.

Yep, the other pay sites say he is a PWO of which makes sense.  With our thin depth at QB, it makes sense to bring some here.

 

I recall how Cam Rising was hurt earlier this season, and Utah started and played a former walk-on at QB who won it at WSU on a Thursday night game.  It is very low probability, but it can happen.

Mr. FishDuck

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It goes to show just how far Oregon's recruiting juggernaut has come when they start taking 3-star local kids as PWOs instead of a scholarship. We have seen this happen a ton over the past few years where athletes from Oregon join the Ducks as PWOs because they aren't good enough to warrant a scholarship out the gate. This is a major change for the program.

 

Not all that long ago this would have been a scholarship for Oregon but not anymore.

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I'm a Sheldon HS fan.  Beginning with my wife of 50 years, there have been many Ducks from this school.

 

My favorites in no particular order are: Michael Walter (49er LB), Chris Miller (QB & Coach),  and Ryan Walk (OL starter).

 

Welcome to the Oregon Ducks Teitum Tuioti and Brock Thomas!

 

Disclaimer:  I graduated from North Eugene.

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This is a good pick up walk on or not. Remember Mariota was a three star recruit, Justin Herbert was a three star local kid. 

 

This kid has a live arm, is accurate and yes he is a really good QB runner with escapability off the charts. What he isn't is tall.

 

Why do QBs have to be 6'4" or better these days?

 

If he was 6'4" he'd be a 4 star. 

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You need guys like this to have an effective scout team. This will help the defense when preparing for any team with a running QB.

 

It also can give special teams options on field goals with him as a holder. He will be a true role player for the team on a daily basis. 

 

I'm happy for the kid and his family. He will likely be living a lifetime goal of playing for the Ducks. Welcome Brock Thomas!

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On 1/16/2023 at 9:10 AM, OhioDuck said:

Remember Mariota was a three star recruit, Justin Herbert was a three star local kid. 

That's exactly what I was going to say.  As a preferred walk on he gets to learn and develop in the program and use the not insignificant resources at Oregon to build his resume. 

 

The biggest problem with the star rating system is it assumes past performance is the best predictor of future performance and that may be a good rule of thumb but it definitely isn't a law of nature.  Some athletes peak in high school and essentially can't get much better in college.  Some peak early in college.  Some peak in the NFL...  Development in football isn't linear.

 

One thing Brock Purdy is proving in the NFL is that football analysts and talent scouts don't know everything.  Even if the kid never plays a snap it's good to see a hometown kid get his shot at his dream school.

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On 1/16/2023 at 7:37 AM, Steven A said:

Stetson Bennett 2.0 works for me.

Or Justin Herbert 2.0.   Herbert was 3* too, right?

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Jonathan Smith was a short walk on and took the Beavers to their highest heights so far as a QB.

 

He is probably going to up that Beavers' ceiling again as a coach.

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One thing about the "star system" appears to be -- you best get high up into the rankings --  prior to your senior year.

 

I'm sure somebody knows the stories here better than I do; but, didn't Herbert famously break a leg as a junior then ignored all the camps and 7-on-7s before his senior year? Didn't MM sit behind another kid who was an FBS level prospect himself until taking over as a senior?

 

It does appear, if you aren't a top 300 kid prior to kicking off your senior season it just is not very easy to climb that deeply into the top 300 (especially if you aren't playing at Mater Dei, Westlake, Lakeland, or IMG). A great senior year is a mover; but, it likely remains a bigger mover for college coaches than ranking dudes (start as a sophomore at St. John's Bosco? You probably are top 400 and probably top 200 before your junior year, play in Oregon, or Idaho, or outside the Phoenix area in Arizona? Don't count on it - and moving and advancing 40-50 spots might not be so hard but jumping 250-300 spots? A different story).

 

JH and MM appear to more be cases of kids not playing the camp/7-on-7 circuit (for the network rating analysis) and not getting huge attention prior to their senior year, rather than somewhat crazy recruiting stories of somebody coming from nowhere and excelling. Somebody correct that if it is in error.

 

Edited by AnotherOD
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On 1/16/2023 at 10:31 AM, DUCati855 said:

You need guys like this to have an effective scout team. This will help the defense when preparing for any team with a running QB.

 

It also can give special teams options on field goals with him as a holder. He will be a true role player for the team on a daily basis. 

 

I'm happy for the kid and his family. He will likely be living a lifetime goal of playing for the Ducks. Welcome Brock Thomas!

It's not a bad thing to have a serviceable QB as a snapper for PAT/short fg situations, ie, Nate Costa types...

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On 1/16/2023 at 2:44 PM, AnotherOD said:

7-on-7 circuit (for the network rating analysis)

This to me is the problem with recruiting rankings. The academy's on these circuits act basically as agents for their players. Many of the highly hyped up 7 on 7 plays are flops. 7 on 7 does not truly translate to the real game. One of my favorite quotes from Dan Lanning when being asked about other teams recruiting (last year) was (something like) "We'll see. We're not playing 7 on 7 in this league as far as I know." 

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On 1/16/2023 at 2:09 PM, DuckFan93 said:

Or Justin Herbert 2.0.

Yes, but Stetson has the hardware/crystalware we all covet. 

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On 1/16/2023 at 2:09 PM, DuckFan93 said:

Or Justin Herbert 2.0.   Herbert was 3* too, right?

Yes, Herbert was a 3* QB also out of Sheldon HS with recruiting offers from Montana St, Northern Arizona, Portland St and Eastern Washington...

 

I mean Justin didn't even get the offers from Navy and Air Force so...

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On 1/16/2023 at 8:54 AM, Smith72 said:

My favorites in no particular order are: Michael Walter (49er LB), Chris Miller (QB & Coach),  and Ryan Walk (OL starter).

You misspelled Justin Herbert. 

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We can all name some scrub who wasn't supposed to do anything who ended up as a star, whether that's Patrick Chung at Oregon or Tom Brady in the NFL.  And we can all name supposed "superstars" who flamed out and never amounted to anything.  However, anecdotal evidence, no matter how appealing the stories are, pales next to actual numbers, and the actual numbers consistently say that the teams playing for the national title are the ones who have a ton of 4* and 5* recruits.

 

If the kid is a PWO, then fantastic - maybe he turns into something unexpected, he's a holder on kicks that leads to more successful fakes, etc.  I certainly don't begrudge him living out his dream.  Even if all he is is a great scout-team QB, that's still valuable to the team.

 

My original concern was that a scholie given to a tiny, light QB that basically no one else was recruiting is a scholie that is not available for a highly regarded, massive OT, a skilled WR, or a 5* edge.  And yes, those highly rated guys may never amount to anything, but the percentages are better for a 4* or 5* coveted by Georgia, Texas, USC, and Alabama than for a 3* coveted by Portland State.  Recruiting means you'll miss on guys you thought were going to be great, as well as on guys you never thought would be any good - but it's playing the percentages.  Just because Chung was a great player as a 2* safety doesn't mean we should focus on recruiting 2* safeties.

 

Just like in the NFL - it may be worth a flyer to draft a QB like this in the 7th round or sign him as an UFA, but teams that would drop a 1st round choice on him end up consistently being the Cleveland Browns.  So the Ducks get him as a PWO, wonderful; they use a scholarship on him and I would have to question the decision because of the opportunity cost.  That's all I was saying.

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Oregon can give him NIL money in lieu of a scholarship. $30,000 for one year seems like a fair offer. I suppose we could give him up to $50K. It would seem like a good insurance premium to me. A scholarship opening should be worth $50,000 at Oregon, in my opinion. I have no idea what tuition costs these days, to be honest.
 

I was on scholarship until my senior year in 2001, and the tuition then was about $4,000. I already finished two majors by junior year, so my scholarship was ended. $4k was well worth (my parents) paying for another year of not being a real adult working in an office.

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On 1/17/2023 at 2:03 AM, 2002duck said:

You misspelled Justin Herbert. 

I didn't misspell Justin.  I knew there was someone else. I simply, in a Senior Moment, forgot my all time favorite.  Thanks for helping me remember!  👴

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On 1/17/2023 at 5:05 AM, Kurt Rambis said:

We can all name some scrub who wasn't supposed to do anything who ended up as a star, whether that's Patrick Chung at Oregon or Tom Brady in the NFL.  And we can all name supposed "superstars" who flamed out and never amounted to anything.  However, anecdotal evidence, no matter how appealing the stories are, pales next to actual numbers, and the actual numbers consistently say that the teams playing for the national title are the ones who have a ton of 4* and 5* recruits.

 

If the kid is a PWO, then fantastic - maybe he turns into something unexpected, he's a holder on kicks that leads to more successful fakes, etc.  I certainly don't begrudge him living out his dream.  Even if all he is is a great scout-team QB, that's still valuable to the team.

 

My original concern was that a scholie given to a tiny, light QB that basically no one else was recruiting is a scholie that is not available for a highly regarded, massive OT, a skilled WR, or a 5* edge.  And yes, those highly rated guys may never amount to anything, but the percentages are better for a 4* or 5* coveted by Georgia, Texas, USC, and Alabama than for a 3* coveted by Portland State.  Recruiting means you'll miss on guys you thought were going to be great, as well as on guys you never thought would be any good - but it's playing the percentages.  Just because Chung was a great player as a 2* safety doesn't mean we should focus on recruiting 2* safeties.

 

Just like in the NFL - it may be worth a flyer to draft a QB like this in the 7th round or sign him as an UFA, but teams that would drop a 1st round choice on him end up consistently being the Cleveland Browns.  So the Ducks get him as a PWO, wonderful; they use a scholarship on him and I would have to question the decision because of the opportunity cost.  That's all I was saying.

Absolutely understand your point. Yet, if he was offered a schollie I'd also trust that the coaching staff saw something in him the raters didn't. This kid's film looks really good, scholarship worthy. If you just watched him perform and no one told you he was 6' and 175, you'd likely think he was a 4* recruit. BTW there's a guy who has a live arm, accuracy, escapability and is a good qb runner and is listed at 6'1" but is probably closer to 6' in that school down south, who just won a big trophy in NY. Of course I think he was a 5* coming out of high school.

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The NCAA limits roster size to 105 players until the first game or the start of classes after which it increases to either 115 or 125 (NCAA rules are difficult to find).  Scholarships are limited to 85 so the vast majority of D-1 teams will have between 20 to 40 non-scholarship players each year.   

 

Although it is possible for a walk on to perform well enough to earn a full ride is is extremely rare, those that rise to stardom are few and far between.  There is a reason everybody knows Stetson Bennet was a walk on---it is a story that is newsworthy, certainly not the norm.  Maybe Brock Thomas will defy astronomical odds but I think it highly unlikely.

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I totally ageee w playing the percentages. 

 

But maybe he’ll turn out to be another “Big Play” VA. 🤞

 

As much as I love JH and MM, VA was the most fun to watch IMHO.

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On 1/17/2023 at 2:05 AM, Kurt Rambis said:

teams playing for the national title are the ones who have a ton of 4* and 5* recruits

I somehow doubt Kirby Smart and Nick Saban spend a lot of time trolling the recruiting websites so *stars* aren't so much a predictor of talent as a correlational variable.  The directors of recruiting most likely have standing queries that ensure any of the 3* talent and above is being evaluated but if Jr Moala walked into DLs office with a report that listed recruits in order of their on3 stars he'd probably get fired on the spot.

 

It's definitely true that stand out play that is visible enough to the ranking sites is probably visible to the coaches so a 5* athlete is likely on Oregon's radar and probably under consideration for an offer but systems matter so Oregon doesn't offer every 5* player.  Football players aren't race horses which is why Georgia and Alabama both recruit some 3* athletes as sometimes the coaches see stuff. 

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