Why Oregon Should Jump at Opportunity to Join Another Conference

[Pennsylvania Duck]

This article reflects the opinions of Brandon Marcello. He is a national college football reporter for 247 Sports.

 

I know that many OBDF readers have an opposing viewpoint to his, but it is good to ponder other viewpoints out there.

 

While he expects the conference to remain viable in the short-term, even after the Los Angeles schools are gone in 2024, the longer view isn't likely to be as kind to the remaining member universities, Marcello warns.

 

Find out his reasons in the article below...

 

Brandon Marcello outlines why Oregon should jump at opportunity to join another conference

247SPORTS.COM

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Brandon Marcello outlines why Oregon should jump at opportunity to join another conference

 

[DUCati855]

Just another SEC guy talking down about the Pac.

 

All Oregon needs to do is win. If Oregon wins it creates it's own destiny. This is especially true once the expanded playoffs arrive. 

 

With this writers logic Gonzaga would have never be seeded well in March Madness. But, Gonzaga kept winning. Kept creating their own path in college basketball.

 

I feel Oregon and Clemson will stay relevant regardless of what their conferences do. I also do not feel UW is going away soon... Unfortunately. 

[kirklandduck]

The author also seems to completely discount the growth of streaming as a media delivery platform. In 10-15 years sports are going to be provided by just about every streaming provider, cutting into traditional channels in a big way. 

[Flyin Vee]

Eventually team season pass, with individual game option. Stream from anywhere in the world.

[David Marsh]

There is also the assumption that even the diminished Big-12 is going to be better than the Pac-10. I think TCU's National Championship game appearanced shows just how weak the Big-12 is going to be in the future without Texas and Oklahoma. He does say that the Pac will probably get a better media deal than the Big-12 but still I don't see the Big-12 being better at Football than the Pac in the near future. 

 

I think the Pac will be surprisingly fine and maybe after one cycle of the media deal and if both LA schools are bleeding out financially from the travel and the exhaustion we might see them wanting to come back... probably not... but still it would be funny. 

[Smith72]

In addition to agreeing with kirklandduck and DUCati855 I think Mr. Skopil is advocating for big  super leagues.  In my opinion this is wrong. 

 

First, the road to winning a championship in one of those leagues would be hard to do.  Especially, considering all the long road trips!

 

Second, when these super leagues solidify their strangle hold on the NCAA championship, in my opinion, they just become AAA Pro teams that I will not care about.  

 

I only watch the NFL when a team has a few players I care about.  I watch maybe one game a week.  Some weeks none.  When the college game becomes  AAA Pro I'll probably just watch local high school and small college games.

 

Until then I will continue to enjoy the upcoming Duck football seasons in the Pac-12.  Go Ducks!

 

 

 

[Pennsylvania Duck]

On 1/17/2023 at 5:20 PM, kirklandduck said:

The author also seems to completely discount the growth of streaming as a media delivery platform. In 10-15 years sports are going to be provided by just about every streaming provider, cutting into traditional channels in a big way. 

I think you are right that more and more games may be streamed down the road. The question is are people going to go that extra step to stream? I am playing devil's advocate here because I remember the post I put up not too long ago regarding the ratings from Thursday Night Football. In 2021, it was mainly broadcast channels Fox/NFL Network and in 2022, it was mainly streaming Amazon Prime/local channels. There was a 41% audience drop from '21-'22. That is pretty concerning for a conference needing exposure.

 

[David Marsh]

On 1/17/2023 at 3:11 PM, Pennsylvania Duck said:

There was a 41% audience drop from '21-'22. That is pretty concerning.

It was the first year of trying this with any sport and is only one data point. It will be interesting to see how this changes for the duration of the Amazon contract with the NFL. I suspect the numbers will probably improve from year to year as more people get used to watching through a streaming service. 

 

I know I am on the younger side of participants at FishDuck and I cut my cable (which I only had for Duck games) and I will be moving to more exclusive streaming for my football fix moving forward as it is easier to sign up and cancel when the season ends. 

 

Once more people get used to accessing streaming services for their live programming I can see these numbers swinging the other way. 

 

The other interesting thing that might be difficult to track is how many people are sharing accounts on these streaming platforms? That could cause the numbers to be reported lower than they actually are. 

[Washington Waddler]

     Ever notice all the advocates for dismantling west coast football seem to have been born and continue to live east of the Mississippi? 

[idontrollonshobbas]

I listened to this podcast and will offer a tidbit as another way to evaluate Mr. Marcello's acumen.

 

He has the Huskies winning the Pac-12 next year and DeBoer as the conference's best coach.

[12Duck72]

On 1/17/2023 at 3:37 PM, Washington Waddler said:

     Ever notice all the advocates for dismantling west coast football seem to have been born and continue to live east of the Mississippi? 

Well I was born and raised in Oregon and still live in the PNW and I have agreed with the basic premise of this article from the beginning. Realignment is going to happen again whether any of us like it or not.

 

I know everyone is pointing to the expanded playoff as a good thing which I agree it is. But it's not going to solve the problem. Right now anyone not named the BIG10 or the SEC is looking at about a $30 million a year deficit to those 2 conferences. That's right now. What do you think is going to happen in 2030 when all these conferences including the ACC start redoing TV deals? It's going to be an all out war.

 

Will streaming make up that difference? I don't think so but who knows. Will adding schools like SDSU and SMU make up the difference? Absolutely not. Sorry, I love everyone's valuing tradition and I would love to see the PAC stay a major conference but long term I just don't see it happening. In my opinion Oregon needs to look out for Oregon and make sure they are in the right spot to continue to be a major player in collegiate sports.

[Charles Fischer]

Well, my outlook has not changed.  I will not fret about something that may or may not happen a decade from now.  I will focus on what is important....

 

 

[1Ducker1]

All I know is I cant wait to see USC and UCLA with years of less than average win/loss records

[2002duck]

I still have traditional cable (and PrimeTV, and all the other streaming services except for Disney+) and I find it a nuisance to watch NFL Thursday Night Football on the streaming app. Is it too much for me to take the 20-40 seconds to switch from the stream back to cable when there is no live action?
 

Yes, absolutely. I like cable, and I like channel surfing. Honestly, I find myself on Thursday evenings at 7pm wondering what to watch, and I invariably say, "crap, Thursday Night Football is on, and started two hours ago!" If it were on a  national broadcast or on ESPN I would have not missed kickoff. 

 

So, you can count me in on the anti-streaming crowd for live sports. I mean, go ahead and ALSO put it there, just make sure it's on a national broadcast or ESPN/FS1.

[Dave23]

On 1/17/2023 at 7:04 PM, 12Duck72 said:

Oregon needs to look out for Oregon

Not sure how the legality of it would workout but personally I would love an all Oregon streaming service provided by the University. If they could then license games to the networks maybe they could make it worth there time.

[noDucknewby]

As I've said before, I don't like it but I think if the right opportunity comes we have to go.

 

Just because the P12 has a more or less guaranteed spot coming in 2024, that doesn't mean the expanded playoff won't change in the future.  The unfortunate TCU debacle in the natty did not help the argument for anyone outside the "Power 2".  

 

Ultimately it's all about money and I just don't see programs being able to compete while earning around half of what the B10 and SEC will be making.  Eventually the money gap becomes a talent gap, I just don't think that's avoidable.

 

Gotta put Oregon first here.  I just can't help but foresee the B1G and the SEC scooping up all the at-large spots, consistently putting 3-4 teams in the playoff every year, so yeah it will be really hard to win the B1G, but a third or even fourth place would probably get us in.  If the powers that be decided they want the "the 12 best teams" we could be screwed.

[Dave23]

On 1/17/2023 at 10:38 PM, 2002duck said:

Is it too much for me to take the 20-40 seconds to switch from the stream back to cable when there is no live action?

This is changing, TVs are integrating streaming service in a guide that shows all the combined services so it's more live traditional cable. 

 

Personally I love the fact that if I miss a game I can go back and stream the game on demand long after it aired with out an recording device that eventually gets full. Fast forwarding thru commercials is a little tedious but this too will change hopefully.

 

The state of the technology is a lot like when I was a kid and had to go outside and crank a satellite dish by hand to a scratch mark so that I could get the G1 satellite. Things will get better.

[Tandaian]

Winning the Pac 12 would be great and all, but like others have said, it is all about the money.  Continually making 30+ mil less a year, makes it the B1G TEN, SEC and then everybody else.  They might end up shooting themselves in the foot because most won't want to watch 20% of college teams be the only teams with a chance to win a championship in all sports.

 

It will be interesting to watch USC/UCLA in the B1G TEN.  I think the Olympic athletes are NOT going to like traveling 2,000 miles every other week.  

 

If Oregon were to join the B1G TEN, then another 3 teams from the west would have to join as well.  To offset all the extra travel, they really do need to have 6 west coast teams.

 

 

[savagefund]

On 1/17/2023 at 10:38 PM, 2002duck said:

I still have traditional cable (and PrimeTV, and all the other streaming services except for Disney+) and I find it a nuisance to watch NFL Thursday Night Football on the streaming app. Is it too much for me to take the 20-40 seconds to switch from the stream back to cable when there is no live action?
 

Yes, absolutely. I like cable, and I like channel surfing. Honestly, I find myself on Thursday evenings at 7pm wondering what to watch, and I invariably say, "crap, Thursday Night Football is on, and started two hours ago!" If it were on a  national broadcast or on ESPN I would have not missed kickoff. 

 

So, you can count me in on the anti-streaming crowd for live sports. I mean, go ahead and ALSO put it there, just make sure it's on a national broadcast or ESPN/FS1.

Spot on.  Streaming makes channel surfing a giant pain and I am one of those guys.

[kirklandduck]

On 1/17/2023 at 3:11 PM, Pennsylvania Duck said:

I think you are right that more and more games may be streamed down the road. The question is are people going to go that extra step to stream? I am playing devil's advocate here because I remember the post I put up not too long ago regarding the ratings from Thursday Night Football. In 2021, it was mainly broadcast channels Fox/NFL Network and in 2022, it was mainly streaming Amazon Prime/local channels. There was a 41% audience drop from '21-'22. That is pretty concerning for a conference needing exposure.

 

As someone who works in tech (software engineer) and also uses Amazon's cloud services, one thing you can always count on is technology adoption will always progress forward.  Tons of people are already taking that extra step of moving to streaming-only services for their media, I know at least several of us here on the forum have ditched Comcast/Xfinity long ago for subscriptions to Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime Video, Apple+ etc. 

 

The key is, as with most things with it comes to retail services, is selection.  The more sports broadcasting becomes available to streaming services, the faster the adoption will happen.  Amazon Prime Video is already doing NFL and World Cup soccer while Apple+ has MLB.  That's happened only in the last couple years.  After 10 years we should see most sports available with large audiences to stream them. 

 

Remember, 10-15 years is basically a generation...younger folks are more likely to embrace technological innovation...that same innovation makes reaching these services easier to do each year.  Smart TVs now make it possible to watch shows and sports on those same streaming providers in just a couple of clicks on your remote, not a lot more effort than flipping a channel on old cable.

[DUCati855]

For those of you glued to cable. I'll tell you my story.

 

I have cable to all my TVs in the house except one. All bedrooms and living room have coax cable to them with cable boxes in each room.

 

I had an addition added a couple years ago. A family room/ man cave. I never pulled coax to it. It only has wi-fi so my TV in there only has streaming services easily accessible. I have found I spend the weekends glued to my living room TV with cable to watch football. But, 99% of the time outside of football I'm in streaming something (Netflix, Amazon, or RokuTV). 

 

My point is. Once you get used to streaming. You will not miss cable TV much (if at all). Soon most sports will be broadcast via both medias. I for one am looking forward to this happening as I will then be able to drop my $200+/month cable subscription and apply that to my scotch collection.

 

Edited January 18, 2023 by DUCati855

[Just Ducky]

Cut cable almost 3 years ago and will never go back. I’m in my middle 70s so if a man of my age can do it so can you. I spend that money on something else now. My internet bill included Hulu and Disney+ and is still less than 1/2 what my cable bill was. Comcast is a rip off.

[2002duck]

On 1/18/2023 at 1:06 PM, DUCati855 said:

Soon most sports will be broadcast via both medias

I very much prefer Oregon and the PAC-10 not to be the guinea pigs of streaming games as their top tier. Whatever is going to get us the best presence for voters, future recruits, recruits, parents of recruits, the average lunch pail Joe in Ohio, etc- that's what we need. And that is not Amazon's Prime TV.

[DUCati855]

On 1/18/2023 at 1:48 PM, 2002duck said:

I very much prefer Oregon and the PAC-10 not to be the guinea pigs of streaming games as their top tier. Whatever is going to get us the best presence for voters, future recruits, recruits, parents of recruits, the average lunch pail Joe in Ohio, etc- that's what we need. And that is not Amazon's Prime TV.

I see things a bit differently. Anyone on the east coast pretty much ONLY sees the Pac schools on weekly highlight shows anyway. I travel the east coast on occasion and unless the Ducks are playing a top tier team their games are nearly impossible to find in ANY sports bar. Even national chains like Buffalo Wild Wings, Hooters, and Twin Peaks do not get the Pac12 network or most network west coast feeds.

 

At least with a streaming service those who want to follow the Pac would be able to.

[Dave23]

On 1/18/2023 at 5:03 PM, DUCati855 said:

At least with a streaming service those who want to follow the Pac would be able to.

Even in Montana it's fairly hard to get PAC 12 none of the sports bars have Dish Network which is the only option. Those same sports bar more than like already have Prime. 

 

The PAC 12 Network could make a lot more money if I could subscribe to it just like ESPN+

[2002duck]

On 1/18/2023 at 4:03 PM, DUCati855 said:

At least with a streaming service those who want to follow the Pac would be able to

Ah. That's a great point. This is also where I will say that it's more important to me that Oregon seeks out the best national exposure for Oregon, and I don't care as much about the rest of the PAC. There should be no good reason why either a network channel, or FS1 or ESPN would not *want* to air all of Oregon's games (except for cupcakes).
 

It's also why I want to go to the B1G as soon as possible. American exceptionalism is taking a beating in the modern era, but heh, I have no problem with Oregon going on a conquest to join the forces of SEC & B1G Powerhouses. 5PM on ABC every Saturday would be nice. 

[Dave23]

On 1/19/2023 at 12:36 AM, 2002duck said:

5PM on ABC every Saturday would be nice. 

That would be amazing but the only way I see that happening is if they go the streaming route. Oregon will lose out on that time slot to half the B1G who have bigger media markets. Maybe they would work it like the NFL and do the regional coverage thing that I can't stand. I don't watch the NFL because the only games available are the Broncos and Seahawks in my market.

 

The only way to ensure national coverage for Oregon is through streaming as you can have unlimited channels and broadcast every single college game to the nation. Outside of Oregon it is very difficult to get Oregon games on cable, even harder in a year when they aren't doing very good. 

 

The ESPN+ model would work best, I can watch games on ESPN, ESPN 2 or ESPNU and then there's a bunch more game not aired on cable that are available, it's pretty unlimited. If Amazon was to get the rights to PAC 12 games then license those to local broadcast stations we could have the best of both worlds. The PAC 12 will die without national coverage and they will have a way better b chance of going to the playoffs in the PAC.

[DUCKED]

On 1/17/2023 at 4:35 PM, idontrollonshobbas said:

I listened to this podcast and will offer a tidbit as another way to evaluate Mr. Marcello's acumen.

 

He has the Huskies winning the Pac-12 next year and DeBoer as the conference's best coach.

Well, it’s certainly a possibility. Kalen DeBoer is a great coach who turned that program around in one year.

[Just Ducky]

When Pennix is gone we will see how good DeBoer is.

[Duck Fan 76]

I think it's hard to predict what is going to happen in CFB next year and near to impossible to predict what will happen in 10 years.  To be clear paid sports writers have a financial incentive to speculate in a proactive and engaging way about stuff they can't possibly reliably predict so I read the points but take it with a block of salt.

 

It's not a huge leap to predict CFB is a changing landscape... we have more than a few very active factors constantly reshaping the game/industry.  As for the viability of the PAC and the emergence of super conferences?  Maybe, but the law of averages would indicate the most likely outcome is something less extreme but the possibility for an extreme outcome is non-zero.

 

To me it's a question of talent distribution and financial parity in the programs.  If a balance point emerges then super conferences aren't sustainable or even likely.  If the motivation of athletes is to go exclusively to a top ten list of programs then super conferences could actually happen.  Currently the talent distribution is more varied than that but 3-4 schools have managed to leverage the system to get a statistical advantage in talent acquisition.  Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia... you know the drill.

 

There is one really important issue and that's "demand destruction".  Is it good for the financials of CFB to see talent consolidate in 10 schools?  Nope, the overall level of interest and expenditure in CFB will plummet and that would be bad for everyone, even the top 10 schools.  For CFB financials to be healthy and growing the sport needs broad interest and national markets.  This is exactly why the NFL enforces parity through the draft and salary cap.  The Yankees are bad for baseball...

 

I'm not going to waste anybody's time by speculating on where CFB is headed in 10 years but I will say that my enjoyment of Oregon football would diminish if Oregon switched conferences.  I wouldn't abandon my team but naked cash grabs like that would scratch at the back of my brain like the MLB strike did.  I'm positive Oregon can win and win big from inside the PAC. 

 

I mean if Oregon really wanted to be a top 3 School they could open a satellite campus in the south east and the Ducks could get all of those 5* linemen to stay close to home... I mean where does it end?  Do the Ducks just become an NFL expansion team?

[GeotechDuck]

On 1/18/2023 at 1:18 PM, Just Ducky said:

Cut cable almost 3 years ago and will never go back. I’m in my middle 70s so if a man of my age can do it so can you. I spend that money on something else now. My internet bill included Hulu and Disney+ and is still less than 1/2 what my cable bill was. Comcast is a rip off.

Completely agree. My combined internet, cable TV, and telephone land line 9 years ago was approaching $250 a month.  At the time, I was a group manager in my early 40s and all of my staff were in their late 20s and early 30s.  I was the only one in the entire group that had cable.  They convinced me to cut the cord.  Honestly, it was a painful month of figuring out what I needed, switching apps, downloading, using an HD antenna, etc. 

 

Once I got used to it and got everything lined up and working for me, I was super excited about it.  I have access to more content than I ever had with cable, including every Duck football and basketball game. The best part is that when I am not watching anything on a specific streaming service, I can pause my subscription without penalty.  I have cut my internet / TV bill in half for the past 8 years and couldn't be happier.

 

Also with streaming there are deals everywhere.  For example, my wife has an Amazon account for her business, so Prime is free for us.  AT&T wireless offers free HBO Max with your online wireless plan.  American Express offers discount Hulu service if you sign up with Amex card, which I believe is $2.99 a month.    

 

Cable will be completely gone in 10 years.  I think Oregon and the Pac-12 should be all-in on streaming and get the first seat at the table.  The world is changing quickly and they really have nothing to lose at this point.          

Edited January 19, 2023 by GeotechDuck

[2002duck]

On 1/19/2023 at 8:56 AM, Dave23 said:

the streaming route

Well, I was being a little cheeky with the 5pm ABC spot, but an alternative of streaming on ABC would be the exact opposite of a win for exposure. Again, Oregon does not need to be a guinea pig in regards to streaming. Streaming is not there yet, not even close. If an entertainment company wants the rights to our games- fine- as long as there is crystal clear language in the contract that 10 of our games are aired on ABC, CBS, NBC, ESPN, ESPN2, OR FS1. If they want rights to stream those games as well, that's fine. 

 

I understand that streaming helps Duck fans that live around the country, but it does help Oregon gain exposure, recruits, and National Championships. You're not going to get passive viewers to use a streaming app to watch a random Oregon Pac-12 game, and we need those eyeballs.

Edited January 20, 2023 by 2002duck

[Dave23]

On 1/19/2023 at 9:58 PM, 2002duck said:

I understand that streaming helps Duck fans that live around the country, but it does help Oregon gain exposure, recruits, and National Championships. You're not going to get passive viewers to use a streaming app to watch a random Oregon Pac-12 game, and we need those eyeballs.

I would have to respectfully disagree with this premise as currently if you live outside the west coast the exposer to recruits is hampered by major networks more than helping. A game on a major network that starts a 10pm eastern time doesn't help as much as a game that streams at 5pm.

 

Highschool kids in this day and age don't have cable they stream everything. Often I find my self surfing thru game on the ESPN app watch many games that would never be on the major networks, especially if they are ranked.

 

The other major benefit to streaming is the on demand aspect that makes it so if I want or miss the game I can watch the game the next day or the next year. Recruits that want to know how they're position is being used could watch every game played. 

 

Highschool kids and cord cutting adults are now used to being able to watch everything at their convenience. The reason college football is now worth so much money is due to every power 5 conference  game, except the PAC 12, being available nation wide. The PAC 12 is being left behind because of the horrible management of the PAC 12 Network.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Dave23

[Dave23]

Ultimately I'm frustrated how hard it is to watch an Oregon game if you don't live on the west coast. Granted if Oregon's doing well they get a lot more prime spots, but in the not so good years you don't even get to watch them play.

 

I'm not a huge fan of Amazon but when it comes down to it their almost unlimited resources and cloud computing capabilities opens up Oregon football to the world not just the west coast of the United States.

 

This would be no experiment as the writing's on the wall it's going that way for better or worst. Oregon has the most to gain from the PAC 12 remaining intact and the only way that happens is with more money bei6 brought in from media contracts.

 

Being a big fish and a small pond is not a bad thing just look at what Clemson's done. If the streaming route doesn't work out  for the PAC 12, then Oregon would still be the number one prospect for moving into one of the super conferences as they have the best brand and viewership in the conference.

 

Keep the PAC alive!

Edited January 21, 2023 by Dave23

[Pennsylvania Duck]

On 1/20/2023 at 11:26 PM, Dave23 said:

Highschool kids and cord cutting adults are now used to being able to watch everything at their convenience. The reason college football is now worth so much money is due to every power 5 conference  game, except the PAC 12, being available nation wide. The PAC 12 is being left behind because of the horrible management of the PAC 12 Network.

Hi Dave23. I guess you and I look at "convenience" in different ways. I live on the east coast and I find it convenient that I can watch the SEC, ACC, Big Ten, and local colleges on my cable. I like being able to switch channels at will from game to game. I find streaming very inconvenient in that respect.

 

I am also in agreement with others that the conference as a whole is in need of eyeballs and just am not confident that streaming, where it's at in the next few years, can get the conference the eyeballs it needs. We can't just think of the Ducks and their media numbers but those of the other teams in the Pac in order for the conference to grow and stay viable. Will those teams who are at the lower half of media numbers now be able to bring in extra eyeballs just through streaming, especially since we won't have the Southern Cali market? 

 

I don't doubt that in 10 years the streaming market will be different but that is a lot of time down the road. Can the conference wait that long and still remain strong until then? It seems other major conferences have followed another model and are growing marketwise and $$$. 

[Dave23]

On 1/21/2023 at 12:04 AM, Pennsylvania Duck said:

Hi Dave23. I guess you and I look at "convenience" in different ways. I live on the east coast and I find it convenient that I can watch the SEC, ACC, Big Ten, and local colleges on my cable. I like being able to switch channels at will from game to game. I find streaming very inconvenient in that respect.

With the ESPN app you can change games just like your can on cable SEC, ACC, and BIG 12 Networks are all accessible along with ABC and all the ESPN's. On my TV which is relatively new I can switch back and forth between apps fairly quick. I absolutely love the fact that if there was a really good game during the Oregon game that I can watch it on demand later that day, for me that's more convenient than trying to watch three games at one time.

 

As far as viewership is concerned Amazon prime has 150 million subscribers in the US and 200 million worldwide. Compared that to TV subscribers of 66 million.

 

I'm not exactly sure how much it cost to have cable with recording capability and all the channels nowadays but when I last had it was around $130 and that did not include the pac-12 network or ESPN Plus. Currently ESPN Plus and Amazon prime cost me about $25 a month if the pac-12 and Fox were available in a subscription format that'd be reasonable to guess that they'd be 10 to 15 bucks a month per putting my total subscriptions up to $50 a month. 

 

This price point makes it much more approachable for young people and lower income families of which many recruits come from. It's been stated on this forum many times about how NFL scouts and national pundits don't watch PAC 12 games because of how late they are played which is solely due to networks wanting to fill time slots. PAC 12 has so much to gain from playing games at a normal time of day for the rest of the country which will never happen under the networks. 

 

I get the wanting to be able to channel surf but ultimately I want to see the PAC 12 survive and flourish which will not happen with the current Network contracts. If they wanted to guarantee games being played at a normal time of the day that would be great but I don't see that happening. Being on the East Coast either you have to staying up till 2:00am or record the game to watch the late pac-12 game.

 

How many parents on the East Coast are letting their kids stay up till 2:00 a.m. to watch the PAC? Recruiting will get much better and the PAC 12 can become relevant again.

[OST8]

On 1/17/2023 at 5:01 PM, David Marsh said:

There is also the assumption that even the diminished Big-12 is going to be better than the Pac-10. I think TCU's National Championship game appearanced shows just how weak the Big-12 is going to be in the future without Texas and Oklahoma. He does say that the Pac will probably get a better media deal than the Big-12 but still I don't see the Big-12 being better at Football than the Pac in the near future. 

 

I think the Pac will be surprisingly fine and maybe after one cycle of the media deal and if both LA schools are bleeding out financially from the travel and the exhaustion we might see them wanting to come back... probably not... but still it would be funny. 

I stopped by this board to see the "insider" perspective on this whole Comcast fiasco (I agree that at the very least Larry Scott was careless). 

 

Then I ran across this and...I am struggling with how to address this respectfully.  The XII appearance (and drubbing) in the NC game shows how weak we will be w/o OU and Texas?

 

A few thoughts/questions:

 

1)Of ALL the teams in college football Oregon understands how good a fresh UGA team is. Right?

 

2)TCU beat (supposedly) the best the Big10 had to offer.

 

3)Over the past 5 seasons which conference has been stronger?

 

I do realize I see things through a XII lense. And I can say with assurance that had Oregon or Utah gone to the NC and got destroyed by UGA that I wouldn't come to the conclusion that that result showed how weak the PAC was going to be without the LA schools. 

[Kurt Rambis]

You think it's hard to find Oregon games on the east coast?  Try doing it on the WEST coast...of EUROPE.  I have seen the Ducks play live exactly one time in the past two years - when I was in Nevada on business.  I would LOVE a streaming option.

 

Which proves the point I'm about to make:  most of the comments here are only anecdotal evidence.  I like cable...I cut the cord...etc.  Which is fine, as each of us has a preference and a different way of consuming media.

 

Technology advances pretty fast.  Netflix nearly doubled in size in just three years.  YouTube launched in 2005 and was acquired by Google only one year later, for nearly $1.7 billion.  Global streaming revenue doubled from 2018 to 2022, and is expected to increase another $30 billion or so in the coming four years.  

 

Streaming isn't there yet for the sports world, but it will be soon.  The question for the Pac-12/11/10 is when to jump in, and to what extent.  I'm guessing in the next round of media negotiations, EVERY conference will have some sort of streaming element in the contract, but that is a few years down the road.  Should the Pac-whatever pioneer that now, or wait until someone else does it?

 

If I knew how to time the market, I'd have enough money just to have my jet fly me to Eugene for games.

[Pennsylvania Duck]

On 1/31/2023 at 12:04 PM, Kurt Rambis said:

You think it's hard to find Oregon games on the east coast?  Try doing it on the WEST coast...of EUROPE.  I have seen the Ducks play live exactly one time in the past two years - when I was in Nevada on business.  I would LOVE a streaming option.

Hi Kurt Rambis. I have been to Europe, but not watched much tv from there. Are you able to stream current American programming? For instance, would you be able to get a service that streams ESPN or other broadcast channels from the US?

[DUCati855]

On 1/31/2023 at 9:04 AM, Kurt Rambis said:

You think it's hard to find Oregon games on the east coast?  Try doing it on the WEST coast...of EUROPE.  I have seen the Ducks play live exactly one time in the past two years - when I was in Nevada on business.  I would LOVE a streaming option.

Completely agree. Like it or not streaming will be HUGE in the future.

 

In my industry (motorcycle racing) the US series (MotoAmerica) owns its own streaming service. When the pandemic hit it was the only racing available worldwide. Viewership exploded. Over half of the growth was outside of the US. We have a whole new fan base. Even now that the all the other (more prestigious) series are back the MotoAmerica series has maintained its foreign fans.

 

This tells me it would be great for the Pac? to be the first conference on the streaming front. Once you gain fans/followers you typically do not lose them. As college football fans we need to think globally. I feel many are only worried about how it affects them.

[noDucknewby]

On 1/31/2023 at 8:21 AM, OST8 said:

I stopped by this board to see the "insider" perspective on this whole Comcast fiasco (I agree that at the very least Larry Scott was careless). 

 

Then I ran across this and...I am struggling with how to address this respectfully.  The XII appearance (and drubbing) in the NC game shows how weak we will be w/o OU and Texas?

 

A few thoughts/questions:

 

1)Of ALL the teams in college football Oregon understands how good a fresh UGA team is. Right?

 

2)TCU beat (supposedly) the best the Big10 had to offer.

 

3)Over the past 5 seasons which conference has been stronger?

 

I do realize I see things through a XII lense. And I can say with assurance that had Oregon or Utah gone to the NC and got destroyed by UGA that I wouldn't come to the conclusion that that result showed how weak the PAC was going to be without the LA schools. 

Fair points all.

 

Like it or not (I don't), but all conferences are mostly judged by the performance of their bluebloods.  The Pac-12 has heard for years (annoyingly so) that they aren't relevant unless USC is good.  Despite the fact Texas hasn't been relevant for a while now, they are still the conference bell-cow in perception.  Oklahoma does have playoff appearances, but no wins.  Like it or not both conferences take a shot in national perception with their most recognizable brands leaving.  Sure we have Oregon and Washington, you have OKSt and TCU, but none of these programs are considered bluebloods by the rest of the country.

 

The advantage the B12 has had over the P12 in the past few years is that one B12 team has risen to the top with a record good enough to get them to the playoff.  The P12 routinely cannibalizes itself, it seems every year a team seemingly headed to the playoff gets knocked off in November.

 

As for which conference is better?  This is a bit of a cop-out, but really all conferences not named the B1G or SEC are on similar footing, struggling to stay relevant and maybe even to survive.  Hats off to TCU for a great season, but honestly their playoff appearance seems more like a Cinderella one-off than an indication of the strength of the conference going forward.  Yes Georgia was a beast and probably could have beaten anyone on that day, but damn that was an ugly beatdown.  I guess the advantage that Oregon had was we had 12 games left in the season to redeem ourselves.  TCU finishes the season with two losses and probably not a lot of momentum headed into 2023 IMHO.

 

From my perspective as a P12 guy I don't care much for the B12 commissioner coming in and acting like he can cherry-pick the P12 anytime he feels like it.  Sure it's mostly posturing, but it pisses me off.

 

That said, the partnership between the P12 and the B1G is dissolving, so why not screw them and put a B12 team in the Rose Bowl instead?  I'd really like to see more marquee matchups between the P12 and the B12, then we'd see who the better conference is.  We'll get a bit of a feel for that when the Ducks head to Lubbock in September.

Edited January 31, 2023 by noDucknewby

[Kurt Rambis]

On 1/31/2023 at 5:56 PM, Pennsylvania Duck said:

Hi Kurt Rambis. I have been to Europe, but not watched much tv from there. Are you able to stream current American programming? For instance, would you be able to get a service that streams ESPN or other broadcast channels from the US?

There is some availability of that type of thing.  For instance, through my cable I can pay extra and get NBA TV (although I don't choose to).  I do get NFL Gameday, so I can watch every NFL game live or in replay (live can be quite difficult as 4pm Pacific games start at midnight for me - and forget Monday Night Football).  We do get a variety of channels like CNN, History Channel, and HGTV, but I don't have a lot of time to watch regular TV.  I can stream whatever ESPN has on its website, but I haven't found their regular TV channel yet.  Stuff like Roku doesn't work here.  I can probably steam Paramount over here (I think that's NBC), but I haven't found the ability to stream FS1, for instance.

 

Hopefully I'll retire in a few years, the kid will be off to college, the home remodel and move will be done, and I'll have a little more free time to explore that kind of thing.  At least on YouTube I can get 30-minute highlights of most Ducks games, so there's that.

[spartan2785]

^I hate to say it...not sure if I should, but I guess reddit streams is always option (the last option admittedly!)

[Pennsylvania Duck]

I just ran across this article regarding what a possible Pac-12 Media Package could look like. Many points made are good...

 

Speculating on what a reported Pac-12 Amazon and ESPN TV deal could look like

 

CBS Sports reports that the Pac-12 is likely to pursue Amazon and ESPN as joint partners in their new deal starting in 2024. While there was earlier speculation the conference might pursue a fully streaming partnership with Amazon just to chase the highest raw dollar amount, there is concern that going completely online will push the Pac-12 aside from first tier status.

 

Maintaining a linear TV partner—particularly ESPN, which will maintain top billing for the near future in college athletics—is crucial for national attention, exposure, and more bids in a twelve team playoff system.

 

The article goes into detail what this deal could look like...

 

Speculating on what a reported Pac-12 Amazon and ESPN TV deal could look like

WRITEFORCALIFORNIA.COM

---

The future macro moves for Cal's future in the Pac-12 are in motion.

 

[Haywarduck]

I agree with Charles, and will also say if Oregon figures out how to build an elite SEC type program everything else will take care of itself.

 

The problem with almost every program is they don't have the depth Georgia and Alabama has. You might get to the playoffs, but you can't compete with the depth, it's not the talent.

 

Once the playoffs begin it will all come down to how much depth do you have. Can Oregon build a program where we have two, three deep who can compete?

 

If we can do this then the money and all the problems will go away. If we think going to another conference is going to solve our problems we are fooling ourselves. 

 

Our goal should be to win a national title. To do that it will take a top coach, but more importantly the depth it looks like Lanning is building so we can compete in the playoffs, not just some conference based thousands of miles away.

[Just Ducky]

 I totally agree with Haywarduc. There is no guarantee that moving to a different conference is the cure and there is not much track record of success. There are so many variables to consider which Oklahoma, Texas, usc, and UCLA are about to find out.

 

 I do think however that the pack needs to address the situation and get some more power to the pack in the form of Additional teams. Waiting to long could be the final hole in the ship.

[OST8]

On 1/31/2023 at 12:09 PM, noDucknewby said:

Fair points all.

 

Like it or not (I don't), but all conferences are mostly judged by the performance of their bluebloods.  The Pac-12 has heard for years (annoyingly so) that they aren't relevant unless USC is good.  Despite the fact Texas hasn't been relevant for a while now, they are still the conference bell-cow in perception.  Oklahoma does have playoff appearances, but no wins.  Like it or not both conferences take a shot in national perception with their most recognizable brands leaving.  Sure we have Oregon and Washington, you have OKSt and TCU, but none of these programs are considered bluebloods by the rest of the country.

 

The advantage the B12 has had over the P12 in the past few years is that one B12 team has risen to the top with a record good enough to get them to the playoff.  The P12 routinely cannibalizes itself, it seems every year a team seemingly headed to the playoff gets knocked off in November.

 

As for which conference is better?  This is a bit of a cop-out, but really all conferences not named the B1G or SEC are on similar footing, struggling to stay relevant and maybe even to survive.  Hats off to TCU for a great season, but honestly their playoff appearance seems more like a Cinderella one-off than an indication of the strength of the conference going forward.  Yes Georgia was a beast and probably could have beaten anyone on that day, but damn that was an ugly beatdown.  I guess the advantage that Oregon had was we had 12 games left in the season to redeem ourselves.  TCU finishes the season with two losses and probably not a lot of momentum headed into 2023 IMHO.

 

From my perspective as a P12 guy I don't care much for the B12 commissioner coming in and acting like he can cherry-pick the P12 anytime he feels like it.  Sure it's mostly posturing, but it pisses me off.

 

That said, the partnership between the P12 and the B1G is dissolving, so why not screw them and put a B12 team in the Rose Bowl instead?  I'd really like to see more marquee matchups between the P12 and the B12, then we'd see who the better conference is.  We'll get a bit of a feel for that when the Ducks head to Lubbock in September.

It is the (unfortunate) truth that bluebloods are used as the mark by which the conferences are judged. And going forward neither of our conferences will have one of those. I see it as a chance for some non-bluebloods that are in that next tier (Oregon/Utah/UW/oSu/TCU/Baylor) to stake a claim. We all will get a fair shot with the expanded playoff.

 

As for competing with the SEC/Big10...they will certainly have the monetary advantage which, in the age of NIL will certainly play a bigger role than it would have previously. (although that's where Oregon has a one up with Uncle Phil backing it). And it will still be possible for one of the other 3 conferences to make a run and snag a natty. On any given Saturday!

 

As for Yormark, I can totally see why you wouldn't care for him. Honestly, were the shoe on the other foot I would despise his arrogance. And I will say that it does feel good to have some aggressive, confident, forward thinking, non-reactionary leadership for once!

 

And I LOVE the idea of making the Rose Bowl a P12/XII matchup! I can promise you an Oregon/oSu Rose Bowl (for instance) would get very strong ratings. 

[OST8]

On 1/17/2023 at 4:54 PM, Flyin Vee said:

 

 

On 1/31/2023 at 7:47 PM, Just Ducky said:

 I totally agree with Haywarduc. There is no guarantee that moving to a different conference is the cure and there is not much track record of success. There are so many variables to consider which Oklahoma, Texas, usc, and UCLA are about to find out.

 

 I do think however that the pack needs to address the situation and get some more power to the pack in the form of Additional teams. Waiting to long could be the final hole in the ship.

Truthfully...if both conferences can be viable I'd rather them stay as they are. Not because I wouldn't want Oregon or Washington but because with you guys in the conference it would be just that much harder to make the playoffs!blockquotlockquote widget

Edited February 1, 2023 by OST8

[Tandaian]

I'm curious as to why CBS isn't wanting in on Pac 12 football.  They will only show 1 B1G TEN game a weekend at the 12:30/3:30 time slot.  Then 2 games on Black Friday and then the championship game every other year.