Babyjesus615 No. 1 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Pac-12 considering Apple TV+ for football broadcast rights: Report WWW.OREGONLIVE.COM Pac-12 Commissioner George Kliavkoff could present a potential deal to member schools in the near future, according to a report. It now looks like even Amazon Prime has gotten cold, or at least lukewarm, feet in the saga of the PAC 12 media rights deal. Could a Power 5 conference truly survive by going all in on a streaming platform? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave23 No. 2 Share Posted February 22, 2023 On 2/21/2023 at 5:15 PM, Babyjesus615 said: Pac-12 considering Apple TV+ for football broadcast rights: Report WWW.OREGONLIVE.COM Pac-12 Commissioner George Kliavkoff could present a potential deal to member schools in the near future, according to a report. It now looks like even Amazon Prime has gotten cold, or at least lukewarm, feet in the saga of the PAC 12 media rights deal. Could a Power 5 conference truly survive by going all in on a streaming platform? A streaming deal with Amazon maybe, streaming deal with Apple TV not even close. Amazon has 200 million subscribers worldwide Apple TV has 25 million. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pennsylvania Duck Moderator No. 3 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Here's James Crepea's response to that article... 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Fischer Administrator No. 4 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Duckman1 posted this below in another thread (thank you!) and I am combining them. Apple emerges as potential landing spot for Pac-12 football NYPOST.COM Apple TV+ is emerging as a potential landing spot for the Pac-12 college football rights, The Post has learned. Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
GODUCKS15 No. 5 Share Posted February 22, 2023 This deal is rotten to the core. 1 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
12Duck72 No. 6 Share Posted February 22, 2023 On 2/21/2023 at 4:27 PM, Pennsylvania Duck said: Here's James Crepea's response to that article... Couldn't agree more with Crepea. Thanks PD for posting this. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph No. 7 Share Posted February 22, 2023 The apple of my eye is a poor substitute for Amazon But it is all about the Benjis and perhaps this is what GK is left with. Especially, with big-tech Amazon and other big-tech businesses laying off thousands of employees. It's all just complete conjecture in regards to the Pac-10 but look across the board. After Notre Dame, Oregon, and UW are the best choices on the block. I am staying with and following the mighty Oregon CFB brand and believing that the Ducks will land in a perfect Puddles puddle. But it may not be in the 'we are all together' Pac-10 or whatever. Oregon will find a good home but the longer the media deal negotiations and rumors of expansion I am not sure that home will be with the Pac-10. If this is a 'negative' POV so be it. Oregon has invested far more in its brand and facilities than any other school in the Pac-10. The Ducks have to find a place where every school is all in and ready to compete for CFB/CBB titles. Where the Ducks 'partners' are willing to invest in order to realize national championships. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyToBeADuck No. 8 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Cant open James Crepea's comment. So can maybe someone expound on it. Also did I miss an announcement? DId ESPN drop out of their proposed offer to the PAC? So much junk floating around, its hard to tell. Reaching the beyond confused point. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Fischer Administrator No. 9 Share Posted February 22, 2023 It's getting near closing time, and there aren't many options left...and in the darkness....Charles... 1 1 Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
12Duck72 No. 10 Share Posted February 22, 2023 I know there are different opinions out there but I think there's one thing we all can agree on. The PAC 10/12 needs to crap or get off the pot already. Every day I come home from work it seems there is something else. Today it's Apple and we're not in a crisis till mid March. It's been 9 freaking months. Whatever deal is being discussed won't be better in another 3 weeks. It will probably be worse. GK needs to get everyone together and say "this is the best deal we can get" and let the individual schools decide what they want to do. Enough already. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
2002duck No. 11 Share Posted February 22, 2023 I don't like the BIG-12 brand at all, but I'd be willing to do a 2 year deal (along with Washington) to bolt to them rather have an all streaming package- let alone an Apple TV package! Let the 4-Corner schools sign longer GOR contracts. Not our problem. I'd rather have Netflix try live TV than going with Apple. Hardly anyone has Apple TV. How many families of our future recruits are paying for Apple TV? This isn't about die hard Duck fans who can't watch the PAC-12 Network, that's hardly a factor- it's about national eyeballs and brand building. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
lownslowav8r No. 12 Share Posted February 22, 2023 This all just noise. No one writing this has the insider knowledge to write accurate copy. If Wilber and Conzano who do have connections was saying this I’d be taking this noise seriously. Can’t wait for the contract to get signed so this click bait "news" stops. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haywarduck Moderator No. 13 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Last I heard Larry Scott was going to sell a 10% stake in the Pac-12 network for $500 million, what happened! 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
woundedknees No. 14 Share Posted February 22, 2023 That would cut out all the PAC followers who have chosen not to own Apple products, wouldn't it? If so, "Dumb and Dumber-er!" Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph No. 15 Share Posted February 22, 2023 On 2/21/2023 at 8:54 PM, 2002duck said: I don't like the BIG-12 brand at all, but I'd be willing to do a 2 year deal (along with Washington) to bolt to them rather have an all streaming package- let alone an Apple TV package! Let the 4-Corner schools sign longer GOR contracts. Not our problem. I'd rather have Netflix try live TV than going with Apple. Hardly anyone has Apple TV. How many families of our future recruits are paying for Apple TV? This isn't about die hard Duck fans who can't watch the PAC-12 Network, that's hardly a factor- it's about national eyeballs and brand building. Good thoughts on Netflix but a Netflix spokesperson recently stated that the company is not going to become invested in live sports broadcasting. I feel bad for GK. The B12 jumping ahead of the Pac-12 to sign a new media rights deal took FOX off the table and left the Pac-10 with one linear broadcast company, ESPN, to bid against itself. This is at a time when ESPN's parent Disney (market value down 17%) is not going to overpay for the rights to sporting events. It just seems as though the Conference of Champions can't catch a break. SC and UCLA were a big part of the problem but are too big to fail and therefore off to the B1G. The ACC, B12, and Pac-10 are clearly in a battle for 3rd place. Oregon's brand is valuable and sustainable but the Ducks must look after its own best interest and not agree to a deal that locks Oregon into a losing position. If Phil Knight and others have to take the media decision off the hands of the Oregon administration so be it and having a business person in charge would be refreshing. 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph No. 16 Share Posted February 22, 2023 On 2/21/2023 at 8:54 PM, 2002duck said: I don't like the BIG-12 brand at all, but I'd be willing to do a 2 year deal (along with Washington) to bolt to them rather have an all streaming package- let alone an Apple TV package! Let the 4-Corner schools sign longer GOR contracts. Not our problem. I'd rather have Netflix try live TV than going with Apple. Hardly anyone has Apple TV. How many families of our future recruits are paying for Apple TV? This isn't about die hard Duck fans who can't watch the PAC-12 Network, that's hardly a factor- it's about national eyeballs and brand building. Good thoughts. Any deal between the B12 and Oregon and UW will have to be negotiated with and approved by ESPN and FOX. Media has been driving the sport for well over a decade and is now becoming more apparent day after day. It appears that FOX with the LA market could care less if the rest of the Pac-12 disappears and a more frugal ESPN is not going to bid against itself. Again, I like your thoughts. Oregon and UW are two valuable CFB properties left on the board and behind Notre Dame only in value, And in terms of brand building no school has done better at brand building over the last decade than Oregon. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Fischer Administrator No. 17 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Gosh I hate what is going on. Since the media contract for the B1G is rumored to be in the 70M+ range in a few years--it would behoove Oregon to consider taking less...like 40 million from the B1G for five years, and then move up to actual value. It would be more than what the Pac-12 could pay, and would position the Ducks in one of the SuperConferences. Yet the way it will feel--stepping through that doorway forever and playing back east in all sports.... 2 1 Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
noDucknewby No. 18 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Clearly Uncle Phil needs to buy ESPN and the Pac-12 Network and let's just be done with this nonsense! 1 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDuck No. 19 Share Posted February 22, 2023 I'm not sure Oregon needs to chase the short term dollars. It has long been rumored Uncle Phil intends to fund a substantial endowment. Using his estimated net worth suppose he gave a gift of 10 percent, all in Nike stock. That stock would yield annual dividends in the $45 million range and Nike has a 21 year record of increasing their payments. Any media contract adds to that. Is a ten percent gift realistic? Given the role his affiliation with Oregon athletics contributed to his wealth it probably is. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Annie No. 20 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Consider that this information is coming from The Post.... 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
FG Lumber No. 21 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Apple? Not interested. Will have to find other interests if this is the case. My fishing pole is calling 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pennsylvania Duck Moderator No. 22 Share Posted February 22, 2023 What is the Pac-12 actually selling? Ratings without USC, UCLA explain league's struggle to land rights deal Last year, ESPN executive Burke Magnus created a ripple in the industry when he suggested conferences should be focused on cultivating rivalries in college sports rather than worrying about market size. "The amount of time we spend thinking about market size, it pales in comparison to the amount of time we think about rivalries," Magnus said on the Marchand and Ourand Sports Media Podcast. "In college sports, it's the rivalries. It's the traditions. It's the brands that really aggregate audience." To get an idea of the value of such Pac-12 rivalries, CBS Sports found the top 20-rated Pac-12 conference games (not involving USC and/or UCLA) combined over the last two seasons. While a small sample size -- team strength varies from year to year -- it provides a closer look at what the Pac-12 is trying to sell to media rights partners in comparison to other conferences. What is the Pac-12 actually selling? Ratings without USC, UCLA explain league's struggle to land rights deal - CBSSports.com WWW.CBSSPORTS.COM The Pac-12's inability to land a media rights deal is reaching a concerning point 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pennsylvania Duck Moderator No. 23 Share Posted February 22, 2023 This actually ties in with my previous post above... Click to see entire post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pennsylvania Duck Moderator No. 24 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Pac-12 Is Getting Roasted For Tuesday's Apple TV+ News Reports emerged Tuesday that the league may have found a potential partner in Apple TV+. If true, that doesn't seem like it'll be very popular with fans. Looks like OBDF readers are not the only ones not favoring this news... Click here to read reactions in article from Athlon Sports. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
2002duck No. 25 Share Posted February 23, 2023 On 2/22/2023 at 11:13 AM, Annie said: The Post Except the PAC-12 has counted Apple among it's suitors from the beginning. The only difference in the Post article is a hypothetical scenario of Apple buying all rights. Apple was right there with Amazon, and then Amazon (apparently) said they only wanted the few big games. Which is the opposite of what the PAC-10 needs. We need to give streamers the crap games (think PAC-10 Network) and have the good games on TV. The problem is that the streamers are balking at that. And why wouldn't they? Most of these streaming companies are not making a profit. As much as Americans think the Streaming Era is upon us, the reality is that that is not really true for mainstream live sports. And streamers are losing money elsewhere, like I said. Streamers aren't charging enough to make money, and there are too many of them. I do not see live sports working out for another 15 years, whether younger generations call foul or not. The answer is to take less money and go to the B1G like Charles said- heck- pay them to take us for the first year! 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
spartan2785 No. 26 Share Posted February 23, 2023 The conference is an absolute joke, to even have the suggestion that all games are going to be on a streaming service, or even just big games is indicative of where this conference has now landed. Nobody takes them seriously, I would rather play in any other big conference than here at this point. Join up with UW and bolt at the first opportunity, preferably the Big10, take a pay cut for the first 3-5 years if that's what it takes. I have confidence in ourselves that we can make that jump and remain a power. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllOregon No. 27 Share Posted February 23, 2023 This is smoke Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexasDuck No. 28 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Maybe HGTV or the Food Network might be options. Seriously, this seems like the death rattles for the PAC. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
kirklandduck Moderator No. 29 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Apple TV+ needs content to keep growing, they're far behind the other streaming services in that regard. This means GK should be able to get better terms or at least leverage it for higher payouts from Amazon/ESPN. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck 1972 No. 30 Share Posted February 23, 2023 We have our own network. Why can't we leverage that? We have our own production capabilities to sell content to any networks, streaming services, cable, etc, which means there would be no costs to said entities. It seems like a win win for everyone concerned. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph No. 31 Share Posted February 23, 2023 On 2/23/2023 at 4:20 AM, Duck 1972 said: We have our own network. Why can't we leverage that? We have our own production capabilities to sell content to any networks, streaming services, cable, etc, which means there would be no costs to said entities. It seems like a win win for everyone concerned. Except many, many folks across the nation cannot access the Pac Network. The Network is functionally insolvent and not in a position to pay what DirecTV wants to be carried on this cable provider. Without a media partner, the Pac Network is not long-term viable. 2+ years ago ESPN offered to take over the network and the Pac-12 leaders demurred. It was likely a lowball offer but almost certainly more than ESPN with parent Disney not doing well financially will offer today for a Network without the LA schools. The Pac-10 is simply in a very difficult place. The conference will end up with a better deal than the ACC if the streaming component makes sense. But matching the ACC is not the bar, the conference needs to match or exceed the B12 and that will not be easy with FOX after locking up LA sitting on the sideline. Again, IMO Oregon because of the brand and actual viewership numbers will be fine. But I think all of us understand and appreciate that there is likely to be a further realignment in CFB with the Power 2 conferences holding the cards. It may well be in Oregon's best interest to sign a 'bad' but short-term deal, make the expanded playoff field and ball out in the playoff. The media vultures are circling but Puddles goose is far from cooked. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
GODUCKS15 No. 32 Share Posted February 23, 2023 (edited) Per a 2/22/2023 Yahoo article not pertaining to the Pac12. Despite an overall pullback in adoption rates, survey respondents branded Apple TV+ as the weakest link, citing other platforms as a better value due to its overall lack of programming. "Just 5% of respondents cited AppleTV+ as the 'best value for the money' service, likely given the narrow focus on original content," Vogt wrote. Netflix scored the highest, with 27% of respondents citing it as the "best value for money," topping both Amazon Prime Video and Hulu at 12%. I doubt the Pac12 will boost it's ratings. Edited February 23, 2023 by GODUCKS15 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Annie No. 33 Share Posted February 23, 2023 How many streaming services are there? 200+? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
GODUCKS15 No. 34 Share Posted February 23, 2023 (edited) On 2/23/2023 at 8:04 AM, Annie said: How many streaming services are there? 200+? IMO there's only about 10 major players in the US streaming market. But there are over 200 around the world. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_streaming_media_services Edited February 23, 2023 by GODUCKS15 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph No. 35 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Networks not carrying the Pac-12 Network will want to be guaranteed a minimum number of subscribers before picking up a new entity for distribution. Similar to bowl games requiring participating teams to guarantee the sale of X number of tickets. With the Pac-12 becoming the Pac-10 (subject to expansion) after the 2023 season there will not, IMO, be any incentive for cable providers not carrying the Pac-12 Network now to do so with lesser inventory and without the LA teams. I do expect ESPN to be part of Pac-10's new media deal. The rub for the Pac-12 Network still remains. Namely, it is the only conference network without a media partner. Even the loser Longhorn Network is owned and operated by ESPN. I expect this network will disappear once Texas joins the SEC. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck Fan 76 No. 36 Share Posted February 23, 2023 (edited) On 2/21/2023 at 6:05 PM, lownslowav8r said: This all just noise. No one writing this has the insider knowledge to write accurate copy. I couldn't agree more. These stories are post season media click bait for CFB fans. Consider the ACTUAL evidence as to the risks to the Oregon football program. Larry Scott signed that disaster of a media contract in 2011... Oregon football is not only still here it's prospering. When is the last time you heard a recruit say "Oregon who?" The final payout number is very concerning to Oregon's golf team but the football program is building a new NFL class practice facility no matter what the media deal is. As for the streaming content who thinks Apple TV or Amazon are a worse option than the PAC12 network? I'd say either is a step up for Beaver and Coug fans but most of Oregon's games are going to be broadcast on whoever gets the cable portion just like the 2022 season did under the current media rights disaster. As for the death of the PAC12 let's do a basic vector check here, who's the flagbearer for the BIG12? TCU, Kansas St, Texas Tech or Oklahoma St? TCU had an amazing season in 2022 that nobody saw coming but its signature win came against a Michigan team that got caught looking past TCU. What are the actual long term prospects of the BIG12 vs the PAC led by Oregon? Why would a bunch of BIG12 media homers write a millions stories about how the PAC is dead and the BIG12 is going to eat the 4 corner schools? Why would the USC,UCLA media homers write a bunch of stories about how the PAC is dead without their debt laden butts? The PAC needs Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Utah and now Colorado for ratings as the other teams don't really drive football ratings at all. WSU, OSU, Cal, and the Az schools aren't major media draws for football and they are the ones actually sweating the numbers. If Oregon keeps the PAC alive then we're the flagbearer for the conference which means when our AD & President talk the conference will smile and nod. Where would Oregon sit in the pecking order in the BIG10? Why would Oregon leave the PAC for the BIG12 to save their sinking ship? To keep the Oregon football brand alive and well Oregon needs to do ONE thing and that is keep playing entertaining football and that mostly means winning football games by scoring LOTS of points. Having a great defense will lead to the Natty but as long as Oregon looks like FSU in the late 80's and 90's people are going to watch and kids are going to dream. Edited February 23, 2023 by Duck Fan 76 1 1 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
duck023 No. 37 Share Posted February 23, 2023 On 2/23/2023 at 7:24 AM, Jon Joseph said: Except many, many folks across the nation cannot access the Pac Network. The Network is functionally insolvent and not in a position to pay what DirecTV wants to be carried on this cable provider. Without a media partner, the Pac Network is not long-term viable. 2+ years ago ESPN offered to take over the network and the Pac-12 leaders demurred. It was likely a lowball offer but almost certainly more than ESPN with parent Disney not doing well financially will offer today for a Network without the LA schools. The Pac-10 is simply in a very difficult place. The conference will end up with a better deal than the ACC if the streaming component makes sense. But matching the ACC is not the bar, the conference needs to match or exceed the B12 and that will not be easy with FOX after locking up LA sitting on the sideline. Again, IMO Oregon because of the brand and actual viewership numbers will be fine. But I think all of us understand and appreciate that there is likely to be a further realignment in CFB with the Power 2 conferences holding the cards. It may well be in Oregon's best interest to sign a 'bad' but short-term deal, make the expanded playoff field and ball out in the playoff. The media vultures are circling but Puddles goose is far from cooked. What are you talking about. The Pac 12 needs to copy the ACC! The ACC gets in the playoffs most years compared to the Pac 12. The fact that it is easier to get to the playoffs in the ACC is part of the reason the Pac 12 is in this mess. This feels like the stupid ASU pride of not playing Florida St in the national championship. The Pac 12 is always behind the ACC even though they have better teams THAT IS A PROBLEM! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
duckoflife No. 38 Share Posted February 23, 2023 (edited) On 2/22/2023 at 8:19 PM, 2002duck said: Except the PAC-12 has counted Apple among it's suitors from the beginning. The only difference in the Post article is a hypothetical scenario of Apple buying all rights. Apple was right there with Amazon, and then Amazon (apparently) said they only wanted the few big games. Which is the opposite of what the PAC-10 needs. We need to give streamers the crap games (think PAC-10 Network) and have the good games on TV. The problem is that the streamers are balking at that. And why wouldn't they? Most of these streaming companies are not making a profit. As much as Americans think the Streaming Era is upon us, the reality is that that is not really true for mainstream live sports. And streamers are losing money elsewhere, like I said. Streamers aren't charging enough to make money, and there are too many of them. I do not see live sports working out for another 15 years, whether younger generations call foul or not. The answer is to take less money and go to the B1G like Charles said- heck- pay them to take us for the first year! You're assuming that the Big 10 is actually willing to admit us, even at 1/2 shares or whatever. It seems like the Big 10 doesn't want to invite Oregon or Washington. I can't figure out the logic of how a conference would be willing to invite Maryland and Rutgers, but wouldn't be willing to invite Oregon and Washington. But it seems like that's seriously what's going to happen. Edited February 23, 2023 by duckoflife Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastBayDuckDad Moderator No. 39 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Any Apple+ deal is likely DOA. Unless you can get Ted Lasso as a color guy for games. Or maybe be guest coach for one of the teams every Saturday. Yeah, yeah, that's the ticket! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph No. 40 Share Posted February 23, 2023 On 2/23/2023 at 1:01 PM, duck023 said: What are you talking about. The Pac 12 needs to copy the ACC! The ACC gets in the playoffs most years compared to the Pac 12. The fact that it is easier to get to the playoffs in the ACC is part of the reason the Pac 12 is in this mess. This feels like the stupid ASU pride of not playing Florida St in the national championship. The Pac 12 is always behind the ACC even though they have better teams THAT IS A PROBLEM! One reason the ACC gets its team, Clemson, into the PO field of 4 is that even with the ACC dropping divisions the ACC is staying at 8 conference games. The rationale? The ACC plays 4 to 6 games every season vs Notre Dame. State-mandated games such as Clemson vs South Carolina, FSU vs Florida, Ga Tech vs UGA, and Louisville vs Kentucky add another P5 opponent. SOS matters not to the PO Committee today; 2Ls and you are out. But it will matter when the field goes to 12 teams and IMO is likely to go to 16 teams when PO media rights go up for bid for the 2026 season. This is where playing 8 games could hurt the ACC, especially regarding seeding. The Pac-12 definitely does not want to copy the ACC's media deal that stinks to the high heavens through 2036. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
noDucknewby No. 41 Share Posted February 23, 2023 On 2/23/2023 at 10:20 AM, duckoflife said: You're assuming that the Big 10 is actually willing to admit us, even at 1/2 shares or whatever. It seems like the Big 10 doesn't want to invite Oregon or Washington. I can't figure out the logic of how a conference would be willing to invite Maryland and Rutgers, but wouldn't be willing to invite Oregon and Washington. But it seems like that's seriously what's going to happen. Maryland and Rutgers were added in 2014 and their addition was all about getting the NY and DC markets. Much has changed since then, I doubt they'd get the same consideration right now and that may be true of Nebraska as well. Whether or not Oregon-Washington pencils out for the B1G members, it seems there was a real push-back from the university presidents not wanting to be responsible for the death of the P12. That may be naive on their part, the conference death blow may have already been dealt with the departure of the LA schools. If and when the first domino falls, I'm betting the B1G changes their stance about Oregon-Washington. If any of the four corners schools bails and Oregon-Washington are still up for grabs then I think the B1G would much rather take them than see them go to the B12. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
duckoflife No. 42 Share Posted February 23, 2023 (edited) On 2/23/2023 at 1:44 PM, Jon Joseph said: One reason the ACC gets its team, Clemson, into the PO field of 4 is that even with the ACC dropping divisions the ACC is staying at 8 conference games. The rationale? The ACC plays 4 to 6 games every season vs Notre Dame. State-mandated games such as Clemson vs South Carolina, FSU vs Florida, Ga Tech vs UGA, and Louisville vs Kentucky add another P5 opponent. SOS matters not to the PO Committee today; 2Ls and you are out. But it will matter when the field goes to 12 teams and IMO is likely to go to 16 teams when PO media rights go up for bid for the 2026 season. This is where playing 8 games could hurt the ACC, especially regarding seeding. The Pac-12 definitely does not want to copy the ACC's media deal that stinks to the high heavens through 2036. At this point, the PAC would be beyond ecstatic to get the money the ACC is getting (about $37 million a year currently), even using services like Amazon or God forbid Apple that are far less visible than the ACC Network. The reason why the ACC tv contract was considered so bad is because until the last year or the ACC was getting about the same revenue as the PAC, even though the ACC has considerably better TV ratings than the PAC. (Even when USC and UCLA were still in the PAC.) The ACC is still undervalued, but not as much as they were until a year or two ago, when the ACC Network was still in its infancy. That's why there are rumors about Oregon and Washington going to the ACC- the undervalued ACC tv contract is still considerably better than anything the PAC probably even has a 1% chance of getting. Edited February 23, 2023 by duckoflife Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph No. 43 Share Posted February 23, 2023 On 2/23/2023 at 1:20 PM, duckoflife said: You're assuming that the Big 10 is actually willing to admit us, even at 1/2 shares or whatever. It seems like the Big 10 doesn't want to invite Oregon or Washington. I can't figure out the logic of how a conference would be willing to invite Maryland and Rutgers, but wouldn't be willing to invite Oregon and Washington. But it seems like that's seriously what's going to happen. It's all voodoo media math based on potential households watching instead of the actual number of human beings watching. But it is not really up to the B1G. It is up to FOX that 'owns' the B1G and apparently is happy with having only the 2 LA teams on the west coast. NBC is fine with their occasional B1G game following the Notre Dame game and CBS appears to be satisfied with the limited B1G broadcast inventory it will be paying for. The B1G deal is over $1B a year. (Doctor Eval puts a pinky finger to cheek.) ESPN and FOX are CFB financially tapped out The Pac-12/10 erred in overvaluing the inventory post SC/UCLA leaving that it had for sale. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph No. 44 Share Posted February 23, 2023 (edited) On 2/23/2023 at 1:50 PM, duckoflife said: At this point, the PAC would be beyond ecstatic to get the money the ACC is getting (about $37 million a year currently), even using services like Amazon or God forbid Apple that are far less visible than the ACC Network. The reason why the ACC tv contract was considered so bad is because until the last year or the ACC was getting about the same revenue as the PAC, even though the ACC has considerably better TV ratings than the PAC. (Even with USC and UCLA in the PAC.) That's why there are rumors about Oregon and Washington going to the ACC- the undervalued ACC tv contract is still considerably better than anything the PAC could remotely dream of getting. The ACC is getting $20M annually from ESPN for its media rights through 2036, with a bonus based on the number of subscribers to the ACC Network. The B12 schools under the new media deal receive $31.7M a year from ESPN/FOX. The Pac-10 may not finish ahead of the B12 media rights, but it will finish ahead of the ACC's current deal. Edited February 23, 2023 by Jon Joseph Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
duckoflife No. 45 Share Posted February 23, 2023 (edited) On 2/23/2023 at 1:56 PM, Jon Joseph said: The ACC is getting $20M annually from ESPN for its media rights through 2038, with a bonus based on the number of subscribers to the ACC Network. The B12 schools under the new media deal receive $31.7M a year from ESPN/FOX. The Pac-10 may not finish ahead of the B12 media rights wise but it will finish ahead of the ACC's current deal. There were posts on CSNBBS saying that the ACC is making about $37 million a year. (And that might be for 2021-22- it might be even higher for the 2022-23 school year.) It might be $20 million + $17 million from the ACC network- I don't remember for sure. Edited February 23, 2023 by duckoflife Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck Fan 76 No. 46 Share Posted February 23, 2023 On 2/23/2023 at 10:20 AM, duckoflife said: I can't figure out the logic of how a conference would be willing to invite Maryland and Rutgers, but wouldn't be willing to invite Oregon and Washington. From a media value perspective the BIG10 maximized its west coast time slot gains with USC and UCLA. That gives them two "night games" when most BIG10 teams are forced to fly west and those games will draw eyes away from PAC12 broadcasts. When Ohio St plays in the Coliseum that game obviously will be noon PST which is 3PM EST leaving the noon EST slot open for a Michigan or Penn St game. When Rutgers plays in the Coliseum it will be 7PM PST, 10PM EST. If they bring in Oregon or Washington those games (against Ohio St, Michigan, Penn St) will also likely occupy the noon broadcast and could actually eat viewership out of their current marque broadcast for a lower net gain. The bottom line is they don't shoot from the hip in these scenarios, they run analytics and simulations of schedules with expected viewership/returns. They know what their expected gains are and bringing in Oregon or Washington without paying out less is a mostly looser scenario for the BIG10. Brining in USC and UCLA also isn't about getting BIG10 viewers to watch USC and UCLA games, it's about getting the LA footprint to watch BIG10 games instead of the Oregon vs. Utah games so they get more than the sum of the individual parts for their current deal. Rutgers is the NYC media area and Maryland is the D.C./Baltimore media area so those regions are now watching BIG10 games all day. Those games are later EST games anyway that directly compete with PAC12 media timeslots. Seattle would be in theory a nice edition BUT as I said above it requires them to self compete in time slots which means diminishing returns so ultimately not worth it. The Oregon ad brings in national viewers BUT causes scheduling competition so lower returns. The deal the BIG10 has is valuable because of their ability to maximize the number of marquee Saturday time slots across the US but they have saturated the available time slots just like the SEC has so a low value on continuing to expand. The PAC12 media deal only wins by putting up better marquee matchups in timeslots that hold their viewership and draw eyes away from competing network games. So the Oregon vs Utah games at noon need to draw eyes away from the SEC and BIG10 3PM EST games. That's really hard to do when the 3PM EST game is Ohio St. at USC or Alabama at Texas. So the PAC's best strategy is the Oregon vs. Utah game at 3PM PST, 6PM EST which isn't as valuable of a time slot. How does the PAC12 fight this? Start scheduling who plays who 6-9 months prior to the season to maximize the buzz and value in timeslots. Schedule "entertaining" marquee matchups that draw ratings for non-conference games. Oregon vs. Miami in game 2. Put some non-conference games later in the year for "spice". KILL the PAC12 Network with its garbage content and terrible distribution. Ultimately put a more entertaining product out there for CFB fans to consume. 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
duckoflife No. 47 Share Posted February 23, 2023 On 2/23/2023 at 1:49 PM, noDucknewby said: Maryland and Rutgers were added in 2014 and their addition was all about getting the NY and DC markets. Much has changed since then, I doubt they'd get the same consideration right now and that may be true of Nebraska as well. Whether or not Oregon-Washington pencils out for the B1G members, it seems there was a real push-back from the university presidents not wanting to be responsible for the death of the P12. That may be naive on their part, the conference death blow may have already been dealt with the departure of the LA schools. If and when the first domino falls, I'm betting the B1G changes their stance about Oregon-Washington. If any of the four corners schools bails and Oregon-Washington are still up for grabs then I think the B1G would much rather take them than see them go to the B12. If the Big 10 seriously isn't willing to invite Oregon and Washington until after at least one Four Corners schools has joined the Big 12, then that means that Oregon and Washington seriously need to deliberately sabotage the PAC TV contract negotiations. With the offers the PAC is getting, I wouldn't rule out the possibility that Oregon and Washington are sabotaging the negotiations. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
kirklandduck Moderator No. 48 Share Posted February 23, 2023 (edited) Bottom line for the Pac-12: Does it choose dollars or exposure? WWW.ON3.COM Interviews with prominent TV industry sources paint the picture of a weakened Pac-12 facing a pivotal decision: Maximize dollars or exposure? Interesting article that just went up today talking about this very subject. One passage caught my eye: Quote Kosner said Apple might prefer a more comprehensive package than Amazon, but it’s important to keep in mind that its MLS deal left room for the league to put certain marquee games on Fox broadcast TV as well (not everything is exclusive to Apple). As for Amazon, Kosner said, it’s not clear that Amazon wants, or needs, all of the Pac-12’s football inventory – just the week’s best games. It is more likely, he said, that Amazon would team up with one or more linear broadcasters, most likely ESPN. And it’s important to keep in mind the potential market penetration for Amazon in the coming years and the rate at which that grows. “Through Prime, Amazon will have distribution that rivals or exceeds broadcast during the course of a new deal,” Kosner said, “so it’s not as if the conference is turning its back on its fans. Sharing a deal with a top linear broadcaster could afford the conference the wider distribution it would be looking for in terms of recruiting and overall exposure.” The first line probably explains why Apple is gaining steam in the race lately, they may be willing to let go of some of the better games to a linear partner in exchange for broadcasting all of the rest. There's obviously a ton of back-and-forth going on behind the scenes between all these potential partners that we're not privy to so it's useless to make any hard predictions as to what will happen. One thing I will disagree with the article's author on is his discounting of the intelligence of school alumni. He makes it sound like we're old fogies unable to navigate the streaming landscape and will avoid being relegated to watching games on laptops and phones....as if smart tvs haven't been a thing for the last 10+ years Edited February 23, 2023 by kirklandduck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck Fan 76 No. 49 Share Posted February 23, 2023 On 2/23/2023 at 11:39 AM, duckoflife said: that means that Oregon and Washington seriously need to deliberately sabotage the PAC TV contract negotiations. I don't think "sabotage" is the correct word, I hate to quibble but what Oregon needs to do is exactly what it is doing which is to stand up for it's own best interests. I think it's very likely that the reason GK hasn't got a deal inked is that it's not easy to get the remaining 10 schools to agree with the deals on the table. GK might be the negotiator but the school presidents are the deciders here. What does Oregon want? To stay in the PAC and get enough media revenue from decent time slots to kick this ball down the field and see what's what in 3-5 years. What does a broadcast network want? To lock in Oregon and the PAC at a value for 10+ years. GK just wants to keep the PAC alive. Where is the likely deal going to land? Who knows but we have multiple professionals at work here and Larry Scott isn't in the room so we just have to wait and see at this point. What does a home run look like for Oregon? Marquee matchups offered on a competing network that eat into ESPN and Fox timeslots making them pay a hefty price for not taking Oregon and the rest of the PAC off the table. How likely is this? Who even knows outside of the negotiating room. I will say that discussion about bringing in SDSU is meant to make Fox grind its teeth about splitting the SoCal media market into PAC fans and BIG10 fans. What does a manageable deal look like for Oregon? 25+ million in a short term contract (3-5 years). Aka, Punt! What does a disaster look like? The PAC12 network. Aka, use Bo as a running back late in the season. There's also a possibility that a major shakeup could occur at some point. Disney could sell ESPN and decide to revive ABC sports as a third major competitor. CBS sports could find it's butt in the dark and decide to compete with ESPN and Fox instead of picking up breadcrumbs. Maybe PBS is interested in CFB. I think the streaming only discussion is mostly smoke to be honest and possibly part of a negotiating tactic for GK regarding bringing in more competition to Fox and ESPN. I'd honestly sooner believe the PAC12 network is moving to the pay-per view model. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
