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Everything posted by Jon Sousa
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The Disrespect for the Beavers Never Ends...
Beavers have never been disrespected by THIS fan.
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OBD Prediction Contest vs. USC!
Ducks 56-24 3 TO 4 sacks 300 passing
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BREAKING: USC Defensive Coordinator Alex Grinch Fired
I have been thinking this very same thing. We want more possessions, not fewer. Why??? Everyone believes that both teams have a great offense and can score points. The difference is, which team has the better defense and can more probably get more stops??? Everyone knows that Oregon has the better defense. But having the better defense does not mean that they will get a 3-and-out on every drive. It just means that they have a better chance of getting a stop on any one particular drive. For example, if you toss a coin 1000 times, the split between heads and tails will be close to the probability of getting tails 50% of the time. But... there is a chance that if you toss the coin only 3 times it will come up heads all three times. In fact, if you toss the coin 1000 times there will no doubt be several times that at least 3 heads in a row will be tossed. Let's say that the Ducks and the Trojans have a 66% to 33% chance of getting a stop, respectively. If everyone plays slow to limit the other team's offensive possessions, and each team only gets 3 possessions per half, the score could easily be USC 14 - UO 7... because anyone can toss 3 heads in a row. The fewer possessions, the tighter the game. The more possessions, the greater the probability that Oregon gets pulls away from USC, assuming a 66% - 33% probability of getting a stop. Look no further than the Stanford game. Stanford happened to get a couple of stops in a row at the beginning of the game. Meanwhile, Oregon was only able to hold the Tree to 3 points each on their first couple of possessions... and the games was a LOT CLOSER than it should have been half way through the second quarter. The more possessions this Saturday, the wider the margin of victory for the Ducks. Assuming both teams play at their normal pace, Expect Ducks to win 56 - 24. If both teams play slow to limit the other team's possessions. The Ducks might win by only a touchdown... but they could even lose, because anyone can throw 3 tails in a row.
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Oregon is Putting on a Master Class in Offensive Game Prep
Bo has a young wife to go home to. So... unless the Hatfield-Dowlin Complex has a honeymoon suite, I sincerely doubt it.
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BREAKING: USC Defensive Coordinator Alex Grinch Fired
A couple of years ago the Beavers D was bad and not improving. JS fired the DC mid season and promoted Trent Bray. There was an immediate improvement in the D, and Trent is still the DC. So... there may be some improvement... although the idea of a three headed monster does not impress me. Somebody's got to be in charge and call the shots.
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Rationale for Predicting a Blowout vs. USC
600 yards rushing. That's pretty good! How many yards passing will Bo-dacious get in the first 3 quarters? How many yards passing will Ty Thompson get in the 4th? It will be a good reminder for the Trojans, why they went to the B1G and why they didn't want Oregon to go to the B1G, and why they have nightmares of eventually having to play Oregon every year in the B1G. Dream B1G!!!
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TY Thompson Performance
I think that Oregon may well add a portal QB this year, but not because they don't think TT can lead them successfully. If TT is the starter, who is the backup? We will have Novosad as a redshirt freshman and two very good recruits. The only cue we have about Novosad is that he is behind Ty. We have no clue how quickly the new freshman will adjust to the college game. Bring in a good portal QB and you have a real competition (which probably TT wins)... AND you have a quality #2, whether it be TT or the new guy. Therefore, I think that DL bringing in a QB from the Portal is not an inditement of TT at all. It is just the fact that without a Portal QB, the back ups will have close to NO EXPERIENCE in the college game at all.
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TY Thompson Performance
I watched TT´s two drives before having to go to work 😪. I was cheering him on like crazy. I was SO happy they let him run a regular offence his first drive and he did great. He looked in control; he looked sharp; and he marched the team down the field. The calls in the second drive seemed much more conservative/garbage time/run out the clock type of calls. I was pumped that he got the one good drive, and pumped that they scored on the second drive too. Totally agree that WHOEVER follows Bo-dacious is going to get the short end of the stick... kind of like the poor guy that followed John Wooden at UCLA. They went to the final 4 his first year but only won one game - not the championship. Gene Bartow left after 2 seasons with the fans never satisfied. They weren't satisfied with the next 4 coaches either.
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OBD Prediction Contest vs. Cal!
Oregon 42-6 1 TO 4 Sacks 300 yards passing TT plays
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Bo Nix: OC On-the-Job Training?
This was the first thing that came to my mind when I saw the thread title.
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Does Lanning Have a Weakness Against OC Head Coaches?
Interesting, but I think the sample size is still too small. Especially this week, it has been stated many times that this Duck team is not the same as last year's Duck team -- they are much better. We can especially see this on the D side of the ball. After the Georgia game, Kirby said, "Dan Lanning knows that we have better players than he does." DL did something about that this last off season. He brought in 11-13 edge guys, some LBs, and some very good coverage guys. The coaches also developed they guys that they had from last year, including guys that didn't play last year. This year it is not clear at all if Kirby has better players than Dan... and only in his SECOND YEAR????? It normally takes 3-4, even 5 years for coaches to recruit and develop enough guys to really have "their guys". I think this question should be revisited after a few more Lanning losses over the next few years.
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A Team on a Mission
I think they want more than that. I think they want to make it to the NCAA Championship Game. And then I think they want to win it.
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GameDay Thread versus Utah: Join Us!
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Lincoln Riley Acuses Utah Of Stealing Signs
Newsflash for USC: Nobody NEEDS To Steal Signs From USC.
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Ruh-Roh! The Hits Keep Coming for USC...
I like the way Jonathan Smith is developing his new promising freshman QB. I just watched a game from a few weeks ago. Pre-game, Smith decided that the third possession belonged to the freshman. He came in, did well, and then sat out while DJU came in and finished. We have all said that the only way to learn the game is to play the game. We've also said that taking snaps when the game is no longer on the line and just handing off helps, but it is not the same. When we are favored by 3 touchdowns, why not give a guy (who might have to be called in on a moment's notice to finish out a game) the 3rd or fourth possession while the game is still up in the air?
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OBD Prediction Contest vs. Utah!
Ducks 31-20 2 TO 3 Sacks 300 Passing yards
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Whittingham is a Pretty Cool Dude
That was a great vid. He is obviously a great coach and a great person.
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Did Lanning Get His Wings Clipped?
A frown and a word is not getting one's wings clipped... that would be a more stern warning. I doubt that DL got a stern warning. We don't know what's going on. Sickness? Worry? Introspection? Second guessing one's self? The Ducks came away with a loss, but at the same time, people across the country were wondering out loud if the better team didn't lose that day. No drop in the polls? That's 62 voters from all over the country that didn't see a much difference in how they valued the Ducks. They just moved up the Huskies. DL said he could handle himself and the criticism. If PK or anyone else expressed any anger at the decisions that were made, I'm pretty sure DL had a good and respectful answer. A couple of pressers a few days apart does not a pattern make.
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2024 Football Recruits...Announcements, Updates (No.6)
A picture with this guy is worth thousands of bucks.
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Caleb Williams - Out Rest of Season?
If he quits, his NIL deal should tank as well. He is already in national commercials, so that won't stop, but they might if there is bad juju heading his way. If it's "pay for play", it should be "no pay for no play".
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WSU Head Coach Jake Dickert: 'Attacking is Oregon's Style'
... and that starts in the first half. A 20 minute break isn't enough for full recovery.
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I Should NOT Enjoy USC Fans' Misery So Much....
Best case scenario, Riley leaves and USC promotes Grinch.
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What Did ASU Do That We Didn’t or Couldn’t Do?
What the Ducks couldn't do: They couldn't go into the game as a 1-6 total rebuild team, after UW just escaped the previous week with a very emotional win against a top 10 team and arch rival. They couldn't play against a Penix that was totally banged up from the many hits he took in the 4th quarter the previous week. They couldn't play against a Penix that, for the first time this year was mostly ineffective, throwing several picks and no touchdowns. They couldn't surprise the Huskies with an unexpected very good defense, because the Huskies KNEW we had a very good defense and prepared for it. What the Ducks did do: They followed the extremely close and emotional UW vs UO game with an impressive and dominant win over a very good WSU team who was ranked most of the year... while UW DID NOT play well at all and almost fumbled the game away against one of the worst teams (this year) in all of D1 college football. See ya in December, Dawgs.
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Sleepy Ducks Oust Cougs in Autzen
On slow starts: In the first quarter both teams are up and ready to go. Everyone is fresh. NOBODY is tired or warn out. I remember the CK days where we would blow people out of the water... but it was seldom in the first half against a good team. The lightening fast plays wore people down so that, by the second half, they were getting totally gassed... and the rout was on. I stated last week that I was confident that the Ducks would win the second half - because we were rotating in D-linemen and they couldn't rotate in as many O-linemen. We did win the second half, but only by one point. UW often scored so fast that their line didn't have time to get too tired. We saw the same thing against WSU this weekend. They played us close the first quarter, not so good the second, lousy in the third, and better in the fourth - which was garbage time. Same thing with Stanford. Folks thought we were sleeping, but Stanford had a good game plan and played it well for one quarter. Then they got gassed and couldn't do anything. When the first half is close, don't blame the coaches or the players. Give credit to the other team, and feel for them, because in the second half they will start to feel the hurt from not having as many 1b players to rotate in as the Ducks have. Speaking of feeling the hurt, towards the end of the game last week, Penix was feeling the hurt. I was surprised and impressed that he stayed in the game and was effective. If we were playing 5 quarters, the Ducks would have won by two touchdowns.
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USC vs. Utah
$10 million a year??? I suppose it was worth it getting the fans excited again. He is definitely an upgrade from the last guy.