Canzano: Oregon to Get a Rude Awakening in the B1G?

[Charles Fischer]

Below is a question from Canzano's mailbag that I thought would be interesting for discussion. I think it is very relevant, and my reaction is below it all...

 

Q: Looking at the upcoming Big Ten football schedule for Oregon I am reminded of the story of the dog who caught the car. Who wins in this version? The dog or the car? — @KdickeyKeith

 

A: I spoke with some insiders at Oregon in the days before the decision to go to the Big Ten was made. The school spent extensive time studying the possible transition. This was not a knee-jerk move. It was done with a 10-year and a 20-year window in mind. I asked a well-placed source at UO if they’d considered what happened to Nebraska after they joined the Big Ten and Texas A&M after it went to the SEC.

 

The response from my UO source came: “Texas A&M fell off because of poor hires” and “Nebraska became less relevant when they weren’t the only one recruiting at a national scale.”

Agree? Or nah?

 

I’m fascinated to see how this works out for Oregon. The Ducks may hit the ground running, win a bunch of games, and replace Michigan and Ohio State as a Big Ten power. Or the Ducks may get a rude awakening and discover that it’s tougher than they thought to win games against Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Penn State and Iowa on a consistent basis. I’m here for it. I’ll bet you are too.

----------------------------------------------------

 

FishDuck Facts: If I was Washington (with their recruiting and upcoming teams) or UCLA...I would have the concerns John refers to. 

 

But we have one huge winning factor he did not count on...

 

 

[Phunteratc]

I don’t think the rest of the nation appreciates the power of the Pac-12 conference and the difficulty that there is in winning an away game in the Dessert or at Pullman. The article mentions the difficulty in beating Purdue, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Penn State or Iowa. I would counter that the Pac-12 is just as or more difficult to run the table.

 

The conferences play different styles of football and the Pac-12 has usually struggled with post season, because of the lack of smash mouth defense. But Utah, Washington and OBD are migrating to that style of play and building complete teams. The Ducks more so then the others. That is changing with the portal and the excellent recruiting of the entire Duck coaching staff.

 

Oregon under Dan Lanning is becoming the kind of team that competes in all aspects of the game. Offense, Defense and Special Teams. I like where we are headed and I think it will only get better as the few recruits that we would miss out on in the past will gladly come now that we will be out of the shadow of the Pac 12 network and on national TV or playing to a national audience on the B1G Network every week. I have YouTubeTV and I have at least 4 B1G Network channels. 

 

I hate that the Pac-12 is no longer after this year. Especially as we see how good the conference is this year. But I don’t fear the B1G, I expect we will be amongst the contenders and putting fear into Michigan, Penn State and Ohio State having to come to Autzen. We have already shown that we can go there and win.

[Charles Fischer]

On 10/7/2023 at 1:46 PM, Phunteratc said:

I don’t think the rest of the nation appreciates the power of the Pac-12 conference and the difficulty that there is in winning an away game in the Dessert or at Pullman.

Amen, Duck-Brother, and the real question is how the B1G feels about having a real tough game added with Oregon on the schedule?  With what Dan Lanning is building....isn't the onus on them?

[Solar]

All I know is John hated the Ducks before we left his Beavers behind in the group of five.

 

Of course he hopes the worst for us, but hope is not a plan.

 

Dan has a plan, and the playoffs are expanding enough that you don't have to dominate every game all season. You just have be merely great and get hot at the end of the season.

Edited October 7, 2023 by Solar

[DanLduck]

I think Canzano hated Belotti and struggled with Chip like all media did.

I think too that he was after "clicks" for sake of Oregonian. 

 

Since he's been solo, he seems less biased. That said, the Beavs have been  and always will be the underdog in this state. It's always easier rooting for them.

 

One more reason I love the Lanning hire. He is such a solid, likeable human, how can anyone root against him.

[Washington Waddler]

     Nothing changes in regard to game planning and preparation. What does change is the cumulative effect of increased travel time and being ready for late fall Midwest weather. Nothing we can’t find answers for and adjust to.

[GatOrlando]

You think Michigan, Ohio State, or Penn State would fear their futures, if it was them coming into the Pac-16? In an alternate reality where the Big 10 collapsed, it would be Wisconsin, Michigan State, or Iowa that might have those concerns. Especially Iowa , who never challenges themselves. The other two at least make an effort. It's just their recruiting that makes them a bit less talented.

 

Truth is that every conference consist of 3-4 elite teams that expect to win the conference every year. Then there are about 4-5 second tier teams that wait for that perfect once in a four year period, where they have everything go right. Experience, QB play, and the right schedule. Then there are the 3-5 bottom feeders. Not much needs to be worried about from them. They're just happy to be in a relevant conference.

 

So yeah, I don't buy the "fear" aspect. Oregon has sought out road games against Ohio State, and Michigan in the past. Likewise, those programs have scheduled tough games they didn't need to. Texas and Alabama just played. Clemson and Georgia have played. Florida and Utah just completed a home and home. LSU and Florida State.

 

Top teams seek each other out. Second tier teams seek each other out. Washington just went to East Lansing. You know who doesn't play big boy schedules? Bottom feeders. Rutgers, Oregon State, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Boston College, Indiana etc.. USC , Oregon, Washington, even UCLA want that challenge. Washington State may have been more attractive, had they scheduled more high profile games like Wisconsin, or Ohio State many years ago.Iron sharpens iron. 

 

The CFP, and NCAA tournament reward teams for challenging themselves. If you are scared to see how you stack up, you should stick to the kiddie pool.

Edited October 7, 2023 by GatOrlando

[OregonDucks]

Oregon will be fine in the B1G. 

 

One thing that everyone needs to keep in mind, is that it's a different college football era. Teams no longer have to get through the season with one or fewer loses, with the expanded playoffs.  Heck, a team with 3 losses could find themselves in the playoffs some years.  I don't like that the expanded playoffs will devalue the regular season but that's the reality. 

 

Phunteratc -- Oregon lost to some of the most elite college football programs OOC (e.g., Georgia, Ohio State, LSU, Auburn x2) but, in my opinion, it was due to the talent gap on the offensive and defensive lines, and depth.  Christobal and now Lanning have really improved those position groups and built depth through recruiting, as others have pointed out.  And Lanning and Tosh have the defense heading in the right direction.  Oregon should be one of the top teams in the B1G due to our recruiting and coaching.

 

GatOrlando -- Love your posts.  It's great to have your perspective.  No, Ohio State and Michigan would do well in any conference; however, they would not have an easier time if they joined the Pac-12.  Like most conferences, the middle to bottom of the B1G is not all that impressive.  Those programs will also have a harder regular season schedule now that some combination of USC, Oregon, Washington and UCLA will be on the schedule annually. I'm curious to see how B1G and SEC teams will adjust their OOC schedule, given the more difficult conference schedules and expanded playoffs.

 

Edited October 7, 2023 by OregonDucks

[VegasDuck]

The rude awakening will be the true road games current big 10 teams are going to be exposed to flying out west. Give it a few years and WSU and Oregon State will be asked to join to form a Big 10 western division to limit travel.

[Charles Fischer]

On 10/7/2023 at 9:30 PM, VegasDuck said:

The rude awakening will be the true road games current big 10 teams are going to be exposed to flying out west. Give it a few years and WSU and Oregon State will be asked to join to form a Big 10 western division to limit travel.

If the B1G would not take Stanford/Cal and the Bay Area at a major discount… then Cornvalley, and the Palouse will never get an invite, IMHO.

[Nevada Dawg]

I think that the top tier of the disintegrating Big -12 is quite competitive with the existing top teams in the B1G right now. I have also said on this site that IMHO the existing B1G is badly overrated in both football and men's basketball. The expanded B1G will be strengthened rather than weakened. It may become far harder to have an undefeated regular season, and two loss teams could be numerous.
 

However, such teams with good SOS will almost have to be included in a 12-team playoff. Three-loss teams in the playoffs will be very uncommon however. At least that's my viewpoint.

[Charles Fischer]

On 10/7/2023 at 10:27 PM, Nevada Dawg said:

I think that the top tier of the disintegrating Big -12 is quite competitive with the existing top teams in the B1G right now. I have also said on this site that IMHO the existing B1G is badly overrated in both football and men's basketball. 

Weak in the NCAA tournament In basketball? Yes, but in football the new B1G will seriously challenge the SEC for top conference next year.

 

If you look at the final top 25 at the end of last season, and project the new SEC, and new Big-Ten, you would find there are seven teams of each ranked in the final top 25.

 

And the B1G would have ranked higher…

 

I believe we are going to have some very healthy competition at the top, and the Big Ten will have more blockbuster games on a week to week basis than the SEC, IMHO.

 

it is a new mental paradigm for those in the southeast, but it is going to be incredibly tough, and incredibly entertaining competition for all to watch.

[Jon Joseph]

I believe the question addressed to Canzano was asked by a married couple. One attended Oregon State and the other attended Wazzu. A dam cat. 

 

As Charles already noted above, Wazzu and OR St to the B1G will not happen. If a school is not an AAU member institution it will not be receiving a B1G invite. The B1G would take Cal and Stanford into the fold perhaps but not OSU and/or WSU.

 

This season top to bottom, the Pac-12 is a far deeper conference than is the B1G. There is no easy day in the Pac-12 in 2023. In the B1G, there are Illinois, Indiana, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Rutgers, Nebraska, and, don't forget point every hour or so, Iowa.

 

However, in 2024, Oregon does draw Ohio State and Michigan.

Edited October 8, 2023 by Jon Joseph

[David Marsh]

I personally like Lanning's response in the unfiltered interview on a different thread. 

 

When asked what adjustments Oregon may need to make to deal with a move to the B1G Lanning's response was basically.... I think the B1G may have to adjust to us. 

 

And I feel that is probably true. Oregon is right in it right now for another top 10 recruiting class. This year's Oregon team is something special but I think Oregon will be fine in the B1G. 

[Nevada Dawg]

When I claimed that the merger of the West Coast teams would strengthen the B1G, I was referring to intraconference competition not interconference strength. I kind of laugh at ratings as an indication of conference strength. In a general sense, there is a correlation. But the only polls that matter occur under the spotlight and between the lines.

 

Given this metric, I knew that the SEC was down a bit this year and the PAC-12 way up from the past. The SEC will have been strengthened as well by the addition of Texas and Oklahoma who would be among the stronger of the two teams in the league this year. As for ratings and the pundits great wisdom, I think either of these teams beats either Ohio State or Michigan between the lines and we may have an opportunity this year to evaluate my prediction. After yesterday, Oklahoma is going to the playoffs if they win out which I think they will, although they could lose to Texas in the Big-12 Championship game.

 

As for the B1G, adding teams does not necessarily make the conference any stronger OOC. Personally, I think that it will take a good while before they overcome the incredible dominance the SEC has displayed in the BCS era at hoisting Natty trophies. But it is an empirical question, no?

 

[OregonDucks]

On 10/8/2023 at 11:20 AM, Nevada Dawg said:

When I claimed that the merger of the West Coast teams would strengthen the B1G, I was referring to intraconference competition not interconference strength. I kind of laugh at ratings as an indication of conference strength. In a general sense, there is a correlation. But the only polls that matter occur under the spotlight and between the lines.

 

Given this metric, I knew that the SEC was down a bit this year and the PAC-12 way up from the past. The SEC will have been strengthened as well by the addition of Texas and Oklahoma who would be among the stronger of the two teams in the league this year. As for ratings and the pundits great wisdom, I think either of these teams beats either Ohio State or Michigan between the lines and we may have an opportunity this year to evaluate my prediction. After yesterday, Oklahoma is going to the playoffs if they win out which I think they will, although they could lose to Texas in the Big-12 Championship game.

 

As for the B1G, adding teams does not necessarily make the conference any stronger OOC. Personally, I think that it will take a good while before they overcome the incredible dominance the SEC has displayed in the BCS era at hoisting Natty trophies. But it is an empirical question, no?

 

 

Although it may be down a bit this year, the SEC will remain the top conference until someone can knock them off.  At the end of the day, national championships are what counts and the SEC has dominated in that department. 

Ohio State, Clemson and Florida State have been the only teams that have been able to go toe-to-toe with the SEC's top teams.  As a Duck fan, I'm hoping that Dan Lanning can get Oregon into that group on a regular basis (perhaps as soon as this year!).

 

If the B1G wants to compete with the SEC for championships, they should do everything they can to add Clemson and Florida State when the ACC implodes.

[Jon Joseph]

Week 6 AP rankings. 6 Pac-12 teams. 3 B1G teams. But Oregon does play the current 2 Michigan and 3 Ohio State in 2024.

[Drake]

With eyes on future years, Oregon will definitely create problems for teams. If the architecture of our football team stays similar, with solid QB’s, receivers, and RBs, that run an uptempo style of play, they will be a tough opponent for any defense to handle. 

 

With recruiting, it looks like there could be 5 to 6 teams that consistently bring in the depth necessary to compete at the highest levels. I am actually optimistic that our recruiting improves once we have completed the move. I believe more potential recruits will be able to watch the Ducks play. 

It will be interesting to see this move unfold.
 

Bring on the BIG. 

[Jon Joseph]

Count much, JJ? 7 Pac-12 teams are AP ranked in Week 6. This leads the league. 1 more than SEC teams ranked.

[Mike West]

I believe power polls say more than ranking polls.  

 

I also think that despite a more diluted talent distribution in the SEC, Bama ( believe it or not) and Georgia are still the teams to beat.

 

I believe Michigan matches up best with both  (tOSU just doesn't have a potent enough offense, or dominant enough defense this year).

 

Out West, I believe OBD will be exposed to how good they really are.  Do we post 38 to 45 points like we should have last year?  Do we shut down Penix and company (in my eyes, have we solved covering the middle of the field on extended pass plays?).

 

Last night Arizona showed it's missing a hefty enough OL, otherwise they put USC to sleep.  Was that why they couldn't take down the Fuskies?  Or is Washington better on defense?  

 

We will witness whether or not OBD ( or the Fuskies) are capable of handling the likes of Michigan, Bama and Georgia come Saturday.

 

As to the transition to the BIG, I believe we've only begun to see what Lanning is capable of. If things go as planned the next 18 months, OBD will be considered title contenders year to year.  

 

I also happen to believe the four PAC12 additions are going to make a lot of noise in the BIG...all four. 

[Nevada Dawg]

Again I stress that the number of teams ranked is a beauty contest that means little in the games that really count. Rankings are no guarantee of success just like stars assigned of recruits are no guarantee of college stardom. Players on the field determine success  (or failure) between the lines. Nothing else really matters.

[Jon Joseph]

On 10/8/2023 at 5:49 PM, Nevada Dawg said:

Again I stress that the number of teams ranked is a beauty contest that means little in the games that really count. Rankings are no guarantee of success just like stars assigned of recruits are no guarantee of college stardom. Players on the field determine success  (or failure) between the lines. Nothing else really matters.

It doesn't matter before the 1st PO CT ranking on Halloween and it only matters then to ESPN looking for huge viewer numbers. 

 

December 3rd at Noon Eastern is when the PO CT releases the final and only truly important ranking.

[Tandaian]

I agree @Nevada Dawg the football polls are voters trying to make sure their preseason poll looks right.  With football there really isn't a good way to compare teams because there are so few games played OOC.

 

I'm going with the glass half full for the Ducks and believe their D is much improved this season, but we have UW, WSU, USC, Utah and OSU who we have yet to prove it against this year.  I think the Ducks could go undefeated, but I would settle for a single loss before the PAC 12 championship game.

[Haywarduck]

I think it is a pretty easy formula to figure out. If there is more travel it will be tougher.

 

I can’t think of any top team that wants to travel more. Look at the SEC’s schedules, they seldom travel far.

 

To me this isn’t going to help Oregon, but adversity builds strength. We also must embrace what is in front of us.

[Jon Joseph]

On 10/8/2023 at 2:20 PM, Nevada Dawg said:

When I claimed that the merger of the West Coast teams would strengthen the B1G, I was referring to intraconference competition not interconference strength. I kind of laugh at ratings as an indication of conference strength. In a general sense, there is a correlation. But the only polls that matter occur under the spotlight and between the lines.

 

Given this metric, I knew that the SEC was down a bit this year and the PAC-12 way up from the past. The SEC will have been strengthened as well by the addition of Texas and Oklahoma who would be among the stronger of the two teams in the league this year. As for ratings and the pundits great wisdom, I think either of these teams beats either Ohio State or Michigan between the lines and we may have an opportunity this year to evaluate my prediction. After yesterday, Oklahoma is going to the playoffs if they win out which I think they will, although they could lose to Texas in the Big-12 Championship game.

 

As for the B1G, adding teams does not necessarily make the conference any stronger OOC. Personally, I think that it will take a good while before they overcome the incredible dominance the SEC has displayed in the BCS era at hoisting Natty trophies. But it is an empirical question, no?

 

Great thoughts and the SEC take is solidly based on results over the last decade plus.

 

2024 - SEC - 8 teams ranked including OK and TX. The SEC needs to start playing 9 conference games. (Not sure why Kentucky against the schedule it has played and after being woofed by the Dawgs is still ranked.)

 

2024 - B1G - 7 teams ranked including the 4 Pac-12 newbies. Oregon draws Michigan and Ohio State in 2024. (As bad as the B1G W is at some point I expect that the Badgers will move back into the Top 25. And maybe, an undeserving Iowa.)

 

2024 - B12 - Take away the 2 powerhouses leaving for the SEC and only Utah and Kansas are ranked. 

 

2024 - ACC - Clemson continues to fall off. FSU is 4? Because of a win in a game that it should have lost at Clemson and a win over an LSU team with no defense. 

 

UNC's big win? Over South Carolina? Miami has Mario. A great recruiter and a terrible game-management coach. Kirby learned from his mistakes. Mario?

 

I think come 2026 when the PO perhaps expands to 16 teams or stays at 12 with a political spot for the best G5 team but with teams ranked without bumping conference champs up, the SEC and B1G will dominate the field season after season.

 

Once Clemson, FSU, Louisville, and NC State depart for the SEC and Notre Dame and UNC (and maybe UVA and Georgia Tech/Miami) join the B1G, why have a playoff other than B1G vs. SEC? Spread the Sugar to G5+ ACC and B12, and the G5 conferences to keep the pols off of the back and have the Power 2 play for a title.

 

How are the B12 and the remainder of the ACC possibly going to recruit from HS and the portal at the level of the Power 2 conferences? Players who do sign with the B12 and ACC and ball out are most likely to take the portal to the Power 2.

 

Size goes to size in big business and the B1G and the SEC have financially eclipsed the competitors.

 

And, when it comes to the regulation of the Power 2 conferences at least for CFB, give the NCAA the heave-ho.   

 

 

 

Edited October 9, 2023 by Jon Joseph

[The Kamikaze Kid]

The Ducks have been and will continue to do a great job of recruiting both O/D lines as well as skill positions. They'll be in the mix at the top of the BIG most years with some drop off with the occasional upset.

 

The real question here is what will Canzono's lane be going forward? Does he embrace the Ducks national presence and climb aboard the bandwagon, or does he continue to stir the pot for the bitter Beaver fan?

 

All I know is that I already don't care either way.

[Mic]

I'll be willing to admit I was wrong if and when Oregon succeeds in the Big-10 in coming years.  However, I still fail to see why Oregon and the other schools thought this was the right move to make.  What was wrong with the Pac-12 - arguably the best conference in the country right now?  It's been a long, hard struggle for the Pac to get to where it is now, one that took years.  But they got there - finally.  And now it's all been thrown away because of what I feel was a stupid move by USC, causing UCLA to make the same, causing the rest of the dominos to fall one at a time.

 

As I said, I'll be willing, gladly, to admit I was wrong IF this demise of the Pac-12 proves fruitful  I'm just not holding my breath.  I think it a very bad move but so be it. It is what it is and life goes forward.  GO OREGON.  

[anyotherduck]

Canzano is too provincial a writer to keep up with Oregon and it's (national/international) brand. Conversely, he's a perfect fit for PSU and the Beavs. He can keep his "underachiever clown party" focused on his local audience, the ducks have moved on to bigger and better opportunities.

[Charles Fischer]

On 10/9/2023 at 10:08 AM, Mic said:

I'll be willing to admit I was wrong if and when Oregon succeeds in the Big-10 in coming years.  However, I still fail to see why Oregon and the other schools thought this was the right move to make.  

The consensus here believes that Oregon will grow their audience in the B1G, between all the television opportunities...the question is how much of an increase?

 

Meanwhile had we stayed with the Pac-12....not only was the money going to be half of B1G revenues over time, but our audience could shrink from primarily being on streaming before the rest of the country had adapted.

 

This end is not what I wanted, but I am going to make the best of it, and clearly--it is best for Oregon, given the options.  (IMHO)

 

[Log Haulin]

Predicting the Final 2024 BigTen Conference Standings

WWW.UWDAWGPOUND.COM

---

Now that we have the opponents for the BigTen teams in 2024, we can start...

 

I know this is from behind enemy lines but this Fusky seems to think Ducks will do just fine. 

[NJDuck]

 

So, Canzano thinks Oregon is in for a rude awakening in the BIG.

Hmm .  Well, in my humble opinion...actions speak louder than words.  Go Ducks, Fly High!!

 

 

[Mic]

On 10/9/2023 at 10:19 AM, Charles Fischer said:

The consensus here believes that Oregon will grow their audience in the B1G, between all the television opportunities...the question is how much of an increase?

 

Meanwhile had we stayed with the Pac-12....not only was the money going to be half of B1G revenues over time, but our audience could shrink from primarily being on streaming before the rest of the country had adapted.

 

This end is not what I wanted, but I am going to make the best of it, and clearly--it is best for Oregon, given the options.  (IMHO)

 

Thanks Charles.  Your clearly better informed than I and after all, I'm just kinda going on my gut feelings here.  I do so hope you are right about this being the best for Oregon in the long-run - there are a lot of supposedly smart people behind this move so let's hope.   Go Ducks!  

 

ps: I'm already missing the former Civil War, aka 'Rivalry' game with the water rats in Corvallis.  As I understand it, they aren't on the Duck schedule next season for the 1st time in ___ years. 

[kirklandduck]

I think the first year in the B10 will be a bumpy one for OBD but only because there will be a new QB.  Having a new QB starter is almost always an uneven transition as they settle in and we haven't seen enough of Ty Thompson or any other QB on the roster to know who will be "the man" in the pocket and whether they will do better than average.  My gut tells me that TT and Austin Novasad might be just "gap" QBs that will fill the role until one of the new recruits arrive....possibly Luke Moga or even Akili Smith Jr.

[Jon Sousa]

WASHINGTON to Get a Rude Awakening This Saturday???