Poll: What are the Probabilities of Success for Dan Lanning to YOU??

[Charles Fischer]

What are the probabilities that this hiring of Dan Lanning is not an upgrade to what we've had with Cristobal?  Vote and give us your thoughts if possible.  (I have not done a poll before)

[The Kamikaze Kid]

If the team just gets coached to their current start level (4 starish team), they should be favorites in every game next year except Georgia. They'd need to get coached up to 5 starish to win it all and I'd have to see it to believe it at this point.

[Duck1984]

Is there an “all of the above” choice?

 

I hope Lanning sticks around long enough to experience all of the highs and lows as long as it results in beating Bama and the Canes at least once each.

[Haywarduck]

The strength of the Oregon coaches, in the past, has been their ability to get, and accept the help the Oregon Football Program, the Athletic Department and Alumni give them. 

 

Mario, leveraged Oregon's past like no previous coach. He took the Oregon electric name, and brought in the kids who always dreamed of playing at Oregon, being a Duck.

 

The problem was while he used Oregon's past to his advantage, he simultaneously was destroying the brand. The discontent we saw on the field and the transfer portal was just the start of what many saw, the beginning of the destruction of our once proud brand.

 

I think Lanning's youthful curiosity will allow him to adapt his ability to grow our brand and strengthen it. It is an undeniable fact we make coaches better than they really are. Lanning is a great coach, and will become even better than he would have anywhere else.

 

I look forward to seeing Lanning spin on Oregon football progress. I don't think that spin will get out of control, and it will move forward. That will be the kind of progress I expect, and think we will see. We started to see a dominant D under Leavitt, and that will grow. The destruction of our offense will stop and I am excited to see what Lanning vision is, not just the words we heard before.

[30Duck]

Cristobal landed as the coach to keep the team from sinking, so can't really compare the reactions to his and Lanning's starting points. Lanning doesn't need to keep the program from sinking, he just needs to keep it from just treading water.

 

The enthusiasm he showed at his introduction has followed in his actions. He's hired some coaches, talked to possible recruits, and "attacked the portal".  I see it as an upgrade already.

 

It's hard to get excited about the Alamo Bowl, but It will bring closure to the season. I am really looking forward now to the 1st game next season. I have no doubt that Lanning will have the team fired up for Georgia, something we sure couldn't say about Miami Guy. 

[Steven A]

I hope to see "the Lanning way", a combination of the Ducks legacy and the "2021 cards" that we are dealt, ie full use of relentless recruiting, NIL, & transfer portal.

 

We all know Mario AND his staff were master recruiters.  If Lanning and company are near as good, then we can assume an upward trajectory as we can also assume better game management with proper training/development and use of the players, play calling, and that little matter of CLOCK MANAGEMENT.

 

Mario plateaued, no doubt.

 

Playoffs = absolutely

 

Natty = one can only hope. 

 

I remember when, from my time ('68 on), the Rose Bowl was pretty much a pipe dream. Hell, any bowl game was in the 60's, 70's and 80's.  That first Rose Bowl, I told my wife this was a once in a lifetime event and I had to go.  I started driving down I-5 without a ticket or place to stay.  Within an hour of arriving at the official Duck hotel, I had both.

 

I have never been happier that the Ducks made me out to be such a liar.

 

It is now time for onward and upward.

[jrw]

I wanted both #2 and #4. They're not mutually exclusive. Too many unpredictable factors to go with #5.

[Vandownbytheriverduck]

I’m remaining quite optimistic about Coach Lanning and the staff he’s building. A new start with a commensurate recruiting and an equally motivated,  younger, and proven more talented coach.
 

Mario was only an assistant before rah rahing his way into the players hearts and the Oregon HC job.  
 

Emcee failed at his first head coaching job, tutored under some of the best but left the Bamana Republic in a lateral move to coach the Oregon o line and be the assistant head coach to one of the most unscrupulous greedy failures of a head coach in decades.  
 

Emcee like most promoters, politicians, and snake oil salesman, was a great rah rah convince everyone type of guy. 
 

The harsh reality of emcee is that his only really proven successful skill is persuasion.

 

He talked his way into the job, convinced everyone that he’d have an explosive offense and run tempo, including to a respected and known journalist who stayed behind his initial presser to hear the lies directly. 
 

explosive diarrhea is what we got on offense. 4 years of the runs.
 

Decreasing point totals, overwhelmingly reactionary timeouts and little to no improvement in sideline game management. How many good head coaches call timeout on first down coming out of a half? How many coaches can’t run off :12 seconds and give up punt returns for TDs when already down big?
 

I could go all day with examples of emcees failings as a coach. But we’ve all seen enough pistol play, so I don’t want to kill the buzz here by running into a brick wall. 
 

Oregon has a fast rising proven recruiter. A coach whose risen quickly because of what he’s done as a COACH developing talent and recruiting talent and the play on the field. His resume is already better than that of an emcee. He’s still coaching in 2021 while the emcee is, well, still talking. 

Oregon has a more proven COACH and one whose recruited at a high level as have his new assistants. I couldn’t be more excited to see what Coach Lanning can do. 

[Duckhart]

I see Lanny and his young offensive coordinator being splashy with new twist on offense. Much like young guys do with  modifying cars and pick up trucks nowadays.

[OregonRich]

I should probably change my screen name to "Mr. Negative," but I'm not excited about Lanning's hiring in the least. I'm concerned about his age, inexperience, and potential for a lack of "seasoned judgment." 

 

I think hiring Klemm as an assistant speaks to this and was a huge mistake by Lanning. There was a time when Oregon wouldn't touch a coach who was accused of abusing players (active lawsuits against Klemm on this front) and I see it as a black eye for the school (my school) and the program. 

 

Based on the noise coming out of Hawaii, I'm also worried about Lanning's tutelage under Graham. Is Lanning okay with this behavior? The Klemm hire seems to say so. 

 

Of less importance, but still concerning, I suspect the exciting offense we've missed during the Mario years won't be returning with Lanning joining the flock. I don't see Dillingham airing it out and the plucking of Brown 2.0 from the portal doesn't appear to allow for it anyway. 

 

Lastly, I'm not sold on the Georgia D as the end all all be all (Alabama sure had their number) and even so, I wonder who was really running the show (I think Kirby may have had more to do with things than not). 

 

I don't for a second doubt Lanning's desire to succeed. I just don't see it happening anytime soon. I don't think we'll see a Pac12 Championship during his tenure, nor anytime soon thereafter. As far as a National Championship, not a chance. 

[Quietduck]

Probabilities:

• 25% will be better than Mario and will take us to the next level
• 50% Will be equal to or worse than Mario and we will still tend to win7-10 games and go to bowls.
• 25% We will end up battling the worst of the Pac 12 to have some pride in a return to the 1980's

[The Kamikaze Kid]

The way Lanning talked about being dazzled by the Mariota lead Ducks  while an assistant at ASU, leads me to believe that he sees a high octane offense being the ultimate recruiting tool. These young coaches were also youngsters being mesmerized  by Chip's reinvention of football and understand that appeal as a national brand. Both Lanning and Dillingham seem to be outside the box thinkers reinventing schemes on both sides of the ball. I think they both found the perfect home. I see good things ahead and sooner than later.

[Mike West]

On 12/26/2021 at 10:55 AM, Haywarduck said:

We started to see a dominant D under Leavitt, and that will grow. The destruction of our offense will stop and I am excited to see what Lanning vision is, not just the words we heard before

 

Almost.

 

Allioti's defenses were highly under rated.  2007; absolutely 2010; and until he left.  The Brand was the offense.  The Brand's anchor was the defense.  

 

I still believe Allioti's defenses were far more physical than any of his successors.  I have never seen players limp off the field, or receive KO hits like Chip's Natty year.  Not sure I ever will.

[Pocketchange]

Lanning is absolute upgrade from MC in X&O’s and we may be able to keep the recruiting just as high.  
 

That being said Lanning hired multiple assistant coaches that contributed to Jim Mora’s toxic culture and one of them was named codefendant in a $15 million abuse case.

 

I see this playing out one of two ways:

1. Lanning keeps a short leash on “problem coaches” and we go to the playoff within 3 years and possibly the national championship.

2. Lanning either hired the coaches because of their “problematic past” or fails to “leash the problematic coaches” and the UO is in a $15 million lawsuit of their own and the program is a 4 win team the year after Lanning is fired 

[1Funduck]

A new HC is going to have his growing pains. Mysterious time outs at questionable times. I don't expect great things in the first year. A winning season, contending for the North, and the like. But, a Natty run by year 3 or so should be doable with this squad and the recruits that DL is supposedly bringing to the mix. 

 

Optimism abounds here in this happy Duck's home.

[Mike West]

On 12/26/2021 at 12:19 PM, OregonRich said:

Of less importance, but still concerning, I suspect the exciting offense we've missed during the Mario years won't be returning with Lanning joining the flock. I don't see Dillingham airing it out and the plucking of Brown 2.0 from the portal doesn't appear to allow for it anyway. 

 

Lastly, I'm not sold on the Georgia D as the end all all be all (Alabama sure had their number) and even so, I wonder who was really running the show (I think Kirby may have had more to do with things than not). 

 

Are you sure our brand came from airing it out?  I seen to recall tOSU shutting down The Helfrich passing game, and Chip refused to pass it when required in Tucson.  

 

I believe our brand originated from explosive plays.  Saban recognized it, and now used it as his weapon of mass destruction.  Lanning called it out as a requirement.

 

As far as UGA's defense.  Neither UGA nor Bama can stop explosive offenses.  Or anybody for that matter.  Even LSU didn't completely shut down Clemson, they just took away their explosive nature.  

 

You need all three units to win.  Definitely a defense that averages less than 17 ppg all year( can't stop everybody every time), backed by an offense that explodes enough to win a battle of attrition when teams they play are equally lethal.  

 

We're in uncharted territory.  And unless the coaches you're concerned about have current allegations, do you believe they deserve scrutiny based on their merit overall?  Especially the past two to three years?

 

Well see soon enough what Lanning produces.  I base my evaluations on the present.  Hence, I'm waiting to see what MC does in Miami (I believe he will ultimately fail, but the ACC surly isn't the SEC, so he isn't in immediate danger).  I also am curious about Lanning's ultimate strategy.  We won't get any ideas until at least the Spring.

 

Though I understand the dread ( so many unknown factors), I'm curious why most of us seem to drift negative at any sign of trouble.  

 

Hopium springs eternal...until further notice.

 

[30Duck]

On 12/26/2021 at 12:06 PM, Vandownbytheriverduck said:

explosive diarrhea is what we got on offense. 4 years of the runs.

 

A very good description. 

[idontrollonshobbas]

5 years from now, which program has more wins, Oregon or Miami?

 

Oregon 65%-35%

 

[Charles Fischer]

On 12/26/2021 at 12:06 PM, Vandownbytheriverduck said:

explosive diarrhea is what we got on offense. 4 years of the runs.

 

OK...that is not a pleasant visual, but pretty darn funny!

[Haywarduck]

   On 12/26/2021 at 12:06 PM,  Vandownbytheriverduck said: 

explosive diarrhea is what we got on offense. 4 years of the runs.

 

A very good description. 

 

I would add there was nothing explosive about the runs I saw. More like a longterm case of the squirts, fortunately it wasn't terminal. Those kind of things can kill you!

 

I look forward to solid defense and smooth running offense.

 

Sorry about that, I sometimes can handle a set up like that.

[Charles Fischer]

On 12/26/2021 at 12:19 PM, OregonRich said:

I don't for a second doubt Lanning's desire to succeed. I just don't see it happening anytime soon. I don't think we'll see a Pac12 Championship during his tenure, nor anytime soon thereafter. As far as a National Championship, not a chance. 

 

And THIS opinion above is what our rules are for; on other sites you would get insulted and bullied into silence.  Here, I want to see this--even if painful and not in agreement with the majority of my own view.  You bring up some excellent points that make watching for them in the future all that more interesting.  You should copy-and-paste your post and save it for future reference for all of us.

 

I want to protect the minority opinion because....my opinion in the early days of Cristobal was quite the minority opinion that grew into the majority.  

 

OregonRich...I am glad you feel that you can post your thoughts in safety, and I hope it is an example to everyone.  The Duck water in this pond is just fine, so dive in!

[Guest KingT]

I don't think Mario knows real talent, just stars. I also don't think he knows how to Develop talent, so presumably Lanning will improve the Development area. I don't think Mario understands details of in-game situational ball, not sure if Lanning and new staff will be better. I think Mario had a hard time finding really great staff, in retrospect. Lanning seems to have identified some quality coaches. Lanning should improve team.

[30Duck]

     

 

       just in time with the   

[HappyToBeADuck]

Definitely late to the party on this topic, for me...... 

 

Great posts for certain from multiple sides of the spectrum.  Optimism, pessimism, uncertainty, confidence,  excitement and frustration............

 

The forum pot is full. And everyone is safe to share. What a great forum this is. So much food for thought and consideration.

 

Thanks to all............

 

I get the feeling that Coach Lanning has his own plan.......He will have plenty of film to review to see what the true talent level is on this team. Then all of sping ball to see how that talent level executes his plan.

 

When I am hired to consult for our customers the owner(s) always want to know how I am going to fix their problems. My answer is as always......

 

I have know idea until I observe your team and see what I have to work with. From that observation I will discover if your team or your processes are the road blocks to your goals..........

 

In football terms do I need to bring in new personnel (coaches-players)?

 

Do I need to change, modify or install a new process  (systems-schemes)

 

Once I make my discovery, then my group gets to work. Some existing team members quit or move on. (NFL-portal)

 

So now I have to assemble the team I need(recruiting-portal)

 

Also I have to rally the troops that remain (current roster) Everyone has to buy in to the plan or program. Victory comes with the team.

 

But know this. Everyone on the team needs training. They gotta be taught, coached up and loved. (Player development)

 

IMHO, Coach Lanning is in the observation and assembling faze. Some pieces will leave after the bowl game.  Other portal pieces will come available right after the CFP is completed. Then the final assembly on National Signing Day.

 

We will know much more about Coach Lanning and his staff then.

 

As some have mentioned, after the Georgia game,  when the Ducks take the field they will have the most talent against any opponent.  Probably true.

 

Coach Lanning inherits a young,  experienced roster. Needs a few pieces and a new process. All three phases. And teaching, training, coaching and love for the team. Can they develop players?

 

The jury will be out on the Coaching staff hires until this time next year. Coach Lanning and his staff will have growing pains thru their learning curve. It is inevitable.  Some questionable hires?

 

I expect mistakes. They will be out coached in a number of games by more experienced coaches. (Shaw, Whitt, Chip, Herm, Smart)

 

Hec 8-4 is a possibility. So is 10-2. 

 

As long as Coach Lanning, staff and players learn from their mistakes then they will be ahead of MC. He just never learned or would make changes.

 

If MC can win 37 games then Lanning can too.

 

Slow start but strong finish in 2022. If they develop players, make good in game adjustments,  then down the road Lanning will take us to the CFP.  Natty?

 

Well, if ifs and butts were candy and nuts then Everyday would be Christmas. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 12/26/2021 at 3:25 PM, Mike West said:

 

Almost.

 

Allioti's defenses were highly under rated.  2007; absolutely 2010; and until he left.  The Brand was the offense.  The Brand's anchor was the defense.  

 

I still believe Allioti's defenses were far more physical than any of his successors.  I have never seen players limp off the field, or receive KO hits like Chip's Natty year.  Not sure I ever will.

 

Shut down CAM at the same time the Chipper 'shut down' the Oregon passing game.  No team that season shut down CAM like Nick A did.

[Washington Waddler]

     Reading these great comments, it occurred to me how important it is to separate ‘Identity’ from ‘Brand’. It’s also useful to remember that ‘Brand’ or ‘National Brand’ are extremely volatile and subjective terms that don’t necessarily mean the same thing in the eyes of different recruits. And, in the hands of a recruiter who is using ‘Brand’ to sell a program to recruits without understanding it, let alone believing in that program’s ‘Identity’, you have the makings of a ‘Brand’ disaster that can reach far into future recruiting years.

 

     Unfortunately, Mario was that guy. He got the ‘Brand’ part,  but he never got, nor believed in, the ‘Duck Identity’. We’re fast, smart and know how to adapt to change. We weather storms because we know when to fly, and when to hit the pond. We get to where we’re going (eventually!) because we’re a flock, and we stick together. It’s an identity that is battle tested and hard won. Mario — God bless him — drove his ‘Brand’ new Mallardati  like it was a bulldozer at night with the headlights turned off.

 

     I’m just hoping that moving to a guy whose roots are more midwestern, and who has chosen coaches with a mixture of west coast roots and experience that our ‘Identity’ won’t be so hard now to grasp and — more importantly — instill in recruits.  

 

     It’s not rocket science; it’s just being a Duck! 

[30Duck]

On 12/26/2021 at 2:23 PM, Washington Waddler said:

 Unfortunately, Mario was that guy. He got the ‘Brand’ part,  but he never got, nor believed in, the ‘Duck Identity’.

 

I think you're on to something here. It goes back to the offense, and now how Mario was saying, "Yeah, got it with the offense, yeah, yeah". 

 

But of course he didn't have it at all. He didn't really have anything, and now he has to start over again.

This time in a place with a history of winning championships, and the belief, somehow, that he will get The U back to the top. 

I like where Oregon is now. Not sure about Miami.

[Jon Joseph]

On 12/26/2021 at 3:39 PM, Mike West said:

 

Are you sure our brand came from airing it out?  I seen to recall tOSU shutting down The Helfrich passing game, and Chip refused to pass it when required in Tucson.  

 

I believe our brand originated from explosive plays.  Saban recognized it, and now used it as his weapon of mass destruction.  Lanning called it out as a requirement.

 

As far as UGA's defense.  Neither UGA nor Bama can stop explosive offenses.  Or anybody for that matter.  Even LSU didn't completely shut down Clemson, they just took away their explosive nature.  

 

You need all three units to win.  Definitely a defense that averages less than 17 ppg all year( can't stop everybody every time), backed by an offense that explodes enough to win a battle of attrition when teams they play are equally lethal.  

 

We're in uncharted territory.  And unless the coaches you're concerned about have current allegations, do you believe they deserve scrutiny based on their merit overall?  Especially the past two to three years?

 

Well see soon enough what Lanning produces.  I base my evaluations on the present.  Hence, I'm waiting to see what MC does in Miami (I believe he will ultimately fail, but the ACC surly isn't the SEC, so he isn't in immediate danger).  I also am curious about Lanning's ultimate strategy.  We won't get any ideas until at least the Spring.

 

Though I understand the dread ( so many unknown factors), I'm curious why most of us seem to drift negative at any sign of trouble.  

 

Hopium springs eternal...until further notice.

 

 

I'm not sure about why, but I do know the 'old' brand was FUN!

[Vandownbytheriverduck]

On 12/26/2021 at 1:15 PM, Haywarduck said:

More like a longterm case of the squirts

I stand colorected.
 

Either way, far too often Oregon had brown stains on their backsides at the end of too many games. 
 

No wonder we haven’t see Stormpooper whites!

[OregonRich]

On 12/26/2021 at 1:16 PM, Charles Fischer said:

 

And THIS opinion above is what our rules are for; on other sites you would get insulted and bullied into silence.  Here, I want to see this--even if painful and not in agreement with the majority of my own view.  You bring up some excellent points that make watching for them in the future all that more interesting.  You should copy-and-paste your post and save it for future reference for all of us.

 

I want to protect the minority opinion because....my opinion in the early days of Cristobal was quite the minority opinion that grew into the majority.  

 

OregonRich...I am glad you feel that you can post your thoughts in safety, and I hope it is an example to everyone.  The Duck water in this pond is just fine, so dive in!

Thanks, Charles. That's one of the many things that make this such a great site - even a highly unpopular opinion like mine can be aired and no-one attacks me personally for it. That's pretty darn amazing if you stop and think about it. 

 

Thanks for all you do in keeping it this way.