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San Diego State Seen As Essential to Pac-12

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Jon Wilmer is an insightful writer with some good reasons for SDS joining the Pac-12.

 

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Jon Wilner said it clearly: The Pac-12 ‘needs’ San Diego State. The #Aztecs are now seen as essential, not optional, in helping the Pac-12...

 

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Many on this Forum have supported the idea of inviting San Diego State into the PAC. I am one of those.

 

We need to have a presence in SoCal. Afterall it is in the PAC footprint and i would definitely want to keep the BIG12 from getting a toe hold in Cali. The BIG 12 is a competitor, not an ally.

 

Jordan, i would also invite Fresno State into the PAC as a travel partner.

 

For those too young to remember AU and ASU were, i believe, WAC schools. Well beneath the so called glory of the PAC 8 in 1978. But they grew into valuable partners.

 

The talent pool in California is wide, vast and deep. How many times have you heard recruits mention they grew up watching Oregon. Oregon is their dream school.

 

Well each season 8-14 year olds in California need a reason to watch Oregon play in California. Attend games with their family...........

 

SDSU and FSU can grow into valuable partners. Those future 5☆ 8 year olds need a reason to watch the PAC and not the BIG.

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SD State would be great from a selfish fan standpoint. Would you rather go to a beautiful new stadium in a nice part of San Diego or to the crappy old Coliseum in the worst part of Los Angeles?

 

Also, San Diego State currently has the best team in Southern California so you get the added bonus of playing better competition. Put SDS in the P12 and their recruiting will significantly improve. 

 

As a golfer SDS would make a good weekend trip for an away game. Plenty of excellent courses. As a bonus, lots of good restaurants in areas that are safe to walk at night. Fun city.

 

I have reached my limit of saying I like SDS joining the P12 so no more from me on the topic.

 

Everybody have a good week. 

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     USC doesn’t seem to know it yet, but their heart and identity died when they decided money and running away from regional competition was more important than tradition and passionate rivalry. They are now not much more than a recommended acquisition absorbed  by an avaricious corporation looking to add to their bottom line. Who and what they will become now is anybody’s guess. 
 

     Not being that attractive has thus far allowed us to escape that fate. May we continue to be so lucky.

 

     There’s no guarantees that SDSU or FSU, or any other potential candidates for PAC membership will make that leap, or even help create the conference that we all want by them doing so.  But, I’d rather take that chance, and go that route, than end up being bought like some commodity. 
 

     When you think money and playing it safe are the point, you’re already dead. You just don’t know it. 
 

     College football is a funny combination of business and passion. It is certainly all about trying to become the very best. But, you ascend to that by allowing your passion to fuel the engine, not the money. Nike and Uncle Phil didn’t board the train because the Ducks were a blue chip purchase; they did it because they saw the passion, belief and emerging identity of something they wanted to be a part of.

 

     It may be scary, but the unknown is not necessarily a bad place to be. It’s kind of exciting to hold on to who you are, even when the going gets tough. Better than selling yourself.

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If the Pac-12 is to survive and have a place at the table of CFP then we need the Southern Cal market and the Northern Cal Market.  If it isn't USC & UCLA then SDS is the next best alternative.  

 

Without a presence in Southern California why should any high 4* or 5* kid in Southern California come to a PAC-12 school?  They will opt for USC, UCLA a BIG 10  school or the SEC ( a few to Notre Dame and a couple ACC schools).   A couple here and there will go to Stanford and Cal but not many more.   

 

We will get some good 3* kids and a few 4*  kids but not like what we are doing now.  We will have essentially taken ourselves out of the equation for the CFP.   

 

San Diego State has a pretty big following and their fan base is not the arrogant jerk's that USC's fan base can be.   I'd welcome them to the PAC if that ends up being the outcome in all of this.

 

Last word, I still think we end up in the BIG 10 at the end of the day. 

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SDSU is already performing at or near PAC 12 level in many sports without the advantage of actually being part of the conference. 

 

Becoming part of the PAC could give them the push to become more than just competitive in the PAC, but a year in, year out contender for championships.

 

I like the move. 

 

Fresno is also interesting. Pretty competitive, and good market. They should get a good look also.

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SDSU may be a quick fix to the current situation and a long-term benefit because of the demographics of its location. I won't argue against it and think the idea has merit.

 

Same for FSU, but without as much enthusiasm. But what about the long-term "health" of the conference, should the Ducks decide to stay with it? Are there gems out there that would make a good addition to the conference, even if they are not in the quick-fix category and would need time to be a competitive member?

 

An investment for the future. One university comes to my mind, and I'm not advocating it, just using it as an example: What would it take to make UC-Davis into a PAC 12 caliber athletic institution?

 

It's a stone's throw from the Sacramento metropolitan area of almost 3.0 million (maybe a part of it); it is an excellent university, a traditional criterium for PAC membership; and it is a good if not great college town.

 

Academically, it would likely rank near to top of the conference, and it likely has a fairly wealthy alumni (Mike Bellotti gets a good paycheck, I hear!) 

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On 7/25/2022 at 10:44 AM, Quackerbacker said:

Without a presence in Southern California why should any high 4* or 5* kid in Southern California come to a PAC-12 school?   

 

Dante Moore, Detroit, MI  5*

Ashton Cozart, Mound, TX  4*

Dante Dowdell, Picayune, MS 4*

Tyler Turner, San Antonio, TX 4*

Colin Gill, Washington D.C. 3*

 

Nearly half of our commits are from regions where Oregon doesn't have a "presence".  Granted it is easier if they visit an area every year but keep it in perspective.

A quick glance at the current roster shows about 34 players from outside the Pac-12 footprint.

 

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Why not UNLV with SDSU instead of Fresno?  The Vegas media market is better (No. 40 vs. 54).  They are an R1 research school with a medical school.  Plus, Vegas has some decent HS football talent.  And it is VEGAS, right?  A little extra bang for your buck.  Side note....the distance between SDSU and Frenso / UNLV is almost identical (roughly 350 miles).    

 

That being said, whatever it takes to save the PAC I am good with. 

Edited by GeotechDuck
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I believe SDSU to be a great candidate for addition.

 

FSU I question. I tend to lean towards UNLV over FSU. Here is comparison:

 

TV viewership:

UNLV= 757,000

FSU= 573,00

 

Students:

UNLV= 31,000

FSU= 25,000

 

Academic Rating:

UNLV= #249

FSU= #213

 

Financial Stability (endowments):

UNLV= $305,000,000

FSU= $170,000,000

 

Other personal opinions/thoughts.

I feel Las Vegas has better prep sports than Fresno (in revenue sports).

Both schools roughly 4 hours from LA. 

I'd rather travel to LV than Fresno...

 

For these reasons I question why FSU keeps being brought up. UNLVs football program would surpass FSU within two years of getting into the Pac10/12/14/16...

 

 

 

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GeoteckDuck... I think we were typing at the same time!

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Why stop at 12 take SD St, Fresno State, UNLV, and any other college in the LA market. 

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On 7/25/2022 at 12:49 PM, Duck 1972 said:

Why stop at 12 take SD St, Fresno State, UNLV, and any other college in the LA market. 

They must bring additional value or your just getting a smaller piece of the pie.

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On 7/25/2022 at 12:52 PM, DUCati855 said:

They must bring additional value or your just getting a smaller piece of the pie.

The Mountain West TV revenue payout is $4M a school.  You just tell SDSU, UNLV, and anyone else you want that they have 50% (or whatever makes the numbers work) shares for the first contract, then they are full share members for the second contract.  They would jump on that deal in a second and be competitive by the time the next agreement rolls around.    

Edited by GeotechDuck
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On 7/25/2022 at 8:49 PM, Duck 1972 said:

Why stop at 12 take SD St, Fresno State, UNLV, and any other college in the LA market. 

So you're saying Pepperdine needs to bring back our football team?  😁

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If you asked me if San Diego was an option from r expansion a month ago or so.... Basically when I wrote my article on the PAC-12 being geographicly isolated... 

 

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Recently in a John Canzano Mailbag article, he was asked whether or not the Pac-12 should consider...

 

I would have said no. 

 

Now ... Their value has increased drastically. As others have said I think it would be problematic to bring them in as full members out the gate. They simply aren't worth full members at this point. 

 

But here's the thing... Utah was brought into the PAC and was uncompetitive for their first several years but then they had a chance to build themselves up and get their legs under them. 

 

Same could be true for San Diego.

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I think bringing in SD St and UNLV makes sense. After that, they could invite in some solid Big 12 teams to get to a 16 team conference.

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On 7/25/2022 at 12:59 PM, GeotechDuck said:

The Mountain West TV revenue payout is $4M a school.  You just tell SDSU, UNLV, and anyone else you want that they have 50% (or whatever makes the numbers work) shares for the first contract, then they are full share members for the second contract.  They would jump on that deal in a second and be competitive by the time the next agreement rolls around.    

I'm confused.  The ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 members received roughly 50% revenue compared to the B1G and SEC.  Conventional wisdom said there was no way they (ACC, Big 12, Pac-12) could compete--they were doomed.

 

Given the above how does a new conference member become competitive if relegated to a 50% revenue share?  Don't the same financial parameters apply?

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My guess is the first 5(?) years of the new conference member is given less than a full share of TV revenue.  Once they have their feet wet in the Pac 12, then they get full share.  

 

You are correct McDuck, if the new members are never given full share, then they likely wouldn't be competitive.

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The P12 has two choices:  

 

1.  Get off their academic high-horse and survive.

2.  Stay the course and be a wannabe West Coast Ivy League with no access to the CFP.

 

SDSU and UNLV should be given invites at 50% of the first TV contract, that fills out the south and adds TV value.  Should also consider FSU and Boise State with the same percentage (or lower) as a longer-term investment.

Edited by noDucknewby
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I like what the members are presenting on this thread. Great stuff.

 

I would not invite any door mats like UNLV in at this time. We need compelling games. They would get destroyed right out of the gate. May never be able to compete.

 

FSU can compete now in the PAC. The gave the Ducks all they could handle and beat uclasuc. 

 

SMU, OK State, Houston, BSU, Baylor and Texas Tech are compelling. UNLV is just not there yet.

 

Of course I dont think like a tenured professor or life long administrator, so my guess is as good as anyone.

 

Right now i would pay streaming money for a pop warnet game.

 

Go Ducks........

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Posted (edited)
On 7/25/2022 at 4:52 PM, noDucknewby said:

SDSU and UNLV should be given invites at 50% of the first TV contract, that fills out the south and adds TV value.  Should also consider FSU and Boise State with the same percentage (or lower) as a longer-term investment.

I would consider BYU before FSU or BSU.  They are ranked 21st academically nationwide amongst universities, strong fanbase following nationwide and a natural rival to Utah with strong athletics.

Edited by NJDuck
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On 7/25/2022 at 2:07 PM, NJDuck said:

I would consider BYU before FSU or BSU.  They are ranked 21st academically nationwide amongst universities, strong fanbase following nationwide and a natural rival to Utah with strong athletics.

Yeah maybe, but BYU already has B12 invite and we already have the SLC market.

 

That said BYU does have a national following and it would be great to see the Utah-BYU rivalry in the P12.  Utah-Colorado is a bit of yawner.

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On 7/25/2022 at 1:43 PM, Tandaian said:

My guess is the first 5(?) years of the new conference member is given less than a full share of TV revenue.  Once they have their feet wet in the Pac 12, then they get full share.  

 

You are correct McDuck, if the new members are never given full share, then they likely wouldn't be competitive.

50% of a Pac-12 share (roughly $15M) is a lot more money than a full MWC share ($4M), so I am guessing that any school in the MWC would jump on that immediately, especially considering the increased exposure and promise of full shares when the next contract rolls around. 

 

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On 7/25/2022 at 1:14 PM, McDuck said:

I'm confused.  The ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 members received roughly 50% revenue compared to the B1G and SEC.  Conventional wisdom said there was no way they (ACC, Big 12, Pac-12) could compete--they were doomed.

 

 

Is Oregon an outlier of conventional wisdom?  I think we are about to find out.

 

I am of the opinion that Oregon will continue to be competitive no matter where they land.  They are a national brand, a Top-15 football program, with huge alumni support, and are one of the few athletic programs in the country that actually turns a decent profit. 

 

In other words, I think Oregon is closer to Notre Dame than UCF.    

 

Edited by GeotechDuck
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On 7/25/2022 at 2:01 PM, HappyToBeADuck said:

I would not invite any door mats like UNLV in at this time. We need compelling games. They would get destroyed right out of the gate. May never be able to compete.

Anyone new to any conference usually starts as a doormat. Utah started as a doormat for the first four-ish years.

 

Colorado is still a doormat.

 

In the SEC Missouri has been up and down but mostly a doormat and Arkansas was only barely a rung above Vanderbilt until really... last year.

 

Nebraska has struggled to find itself in the B1G though they might be looking at a significant jump this upcoming year. All their losses were super close losses last year and with a bit better quarterbacking and a bit of luck they could have had a fantastic year.

 

USC and UCLA will be B1G doormats.

 

Texas and Oklahoma might be the exception to the rule... but they are NOT going to be top tier programs in the SEC, I just don't think they will be basement dwellers right away either. But they will not be happy.

 

I don't think if the Pac-12 adds anyone they are going to be anything other than a mid tier to doormat program. Anyone else just isn't coming to the Pac-12 at this point.

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Remember even though it is football focused, they need to think about all sports.  As a whole sporting program UNLV > Boise St.

 

I'm not sure the Pac 12 offers more than the Big 12 to BYU.  

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On 7/25/2022 at 3:07 PM, NJDuck said:

I would consider BYU before FSU or BSU.  They are ranked 21st academically nationwide amongst universities, strong fanbase following nationwide and a natural rival to Utah with strong athletics.

I agree with this. It's too bad timing wasn't better. I think BYU would make a good fit in the P12; they do very well in other sports as well (e.g. BB, Volleyball, Track/Field, Soccer, Rugby, etc.)

 

When BYU went Independent, I think it spoke to BYU's value that ESPN signed them to a TV deal.

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