Is Lanning’s New Game-Plan…Chip Kelly 2.0?

[FishDuck Article]

Oregon just beat the master, and his offense. How can you say the Ducks are CK 2.0? This is a natural question, and I would even suggest that this short article will make a few of you angry at what I am going to suggest. I believe the new Dan Lanning game strategy is a comprehensive one, combining both sides ...

 

Is Lanning's New Game-Plan...Chip Kelly 2.0?

FISHDUCK.COM

---

Oregon just beat the master, and his offense. How can you say the Ducks are CK 2.0? This is a natural question, and I would even suggest that...

 

[kirklandduck]

Call it "Father Time's Revenge".

[Quackanadian]

Inventions exist to be improved upon. Chip was a total game changer. IMHO, his NFL experience tempered him a bit, but the the new generation keeps improving upon his widely copied concepts. 

 

I wonder if this is why Clemson seems to be "slowing down". Lots of game film to study for that offense. 

 

Go Ducks.

[NJDuck]

Thanks Charles for this insightful article on what is happening on the field.  What our coaches are doing is ingenious!  Scoring on the positions we have, our defense making the opposing team work hard for every down, shortening the clock.  That 7.5 minute drive in the 3rd quarter was a time killer!

 

Even Klatt and Pate were commenting on how good Oregon is.  They both said they and others made a mistake writing Oregon off based on that first game against Georgia.  Looking forward seeing this team continue to evolve, improving each and every week!

[olcodgerduck]

Wow!  Great analysis Charles!  I like the science displayed in Coach Lanning's strategies (or is it rather strategeries?).  This concept makes the onside kick/stolen possession in the 2nd quarter of the Bruins game all the more relevant. Not only did we get to score in back to back possessions - we stole time! 

 

(Can you imagine an old fashioned bandit, kerchief over his face, six gun drawn, entering a bank and yelling "Gimme your time or else!!". And grabbing the clock off the wall, jumping on his horse and racing out of town, chased in a cloud of dust by the Sheriff and a posse!)  I posit that is exactly what Coach Lanning did as a result of the successful onside kick.

 

Employing the clock as an ally rather than an adversary makes sense to me.  Any time you are dealing with a set of absolutes, and can tip those absolutes in your favor, you greatly affect the outcome in your own favor.  It means taking control and managing for the best outcome*.

 

My observation of this current Duck's staff, buoyed by the above analysis, is that they are reducing the random, and further convinces me that great times are ahead for Our Beloved Ducks!!

 

Go Ducks!! 

 

*And wandering a little again, I am so pleased that in a significant game there were no timeouts called at the beginning of play, or to decide whether to go for it on 4th down, or....  You get my point!

 

Have a great day all my Ducks kinfolk, and enjoy all the ponderings of Our Beloved Ducks!!

 

Go Ducks!!

[Vandownbytheriverduck]

Great stuff, Pato pescado. 
 

DL seems head and shoulders above the 8 million dollar man whose game management skills were legitimately repeatedly in question. 
 

I sense an aggressiveness tempered by a calculated data driven approach. 
 

If the offense can continue to be efficient and the defense improves commensurately the Ducks will be a tough out. 
 

It might still yet be a small sample size but I have a lot more confidence in this staff and that they are a no stone left unturned group of coaches taking the program to new heights. 
 

 

[Smith72]

Charles you gave us so much to think about.  In today's wonderful article you summarized Coach Dillingham's, offense as, "it’s more important to be efficient, to make the most of every precious drive." We now have the term average number of points per possession.

 

While reading I remembered the movie Moneyball, and the use of statistics to change how baseball was played.  Coach Tony DeMeo's shortening the game strategy was eye opening for me. 

 

These strategies fit together. Scoring efficiently but shortening the game at the appropriate time is genius!  This explains what we see happening with the Oregon team.

 

I am so thankful we have a staff of bright coaches working in tandem teaching and guiding Our Beloved Ducks!  And thank you Charles for sharing your insights!

 

 

[The Kamikaze Kid]

This year's UCLA team may end up being Chip's peak there. His offense is one of the best in the nation and is being lead by a QB getting Heisman attention.

 

So Kelly at his peak since leaving the Ducks just got out coach by a coach and offensive coordinator coaching in just their seventh game at their positions.  That fact still boggles my mind.

 

It's hard to grasp what we're actually witnessing take shape before our eyes. If things play out as expected, the UO will either make the Playoffs or be sitting at #5 or #6 in the country by the end of the year. I would imagine that if the Ducks run the table in convincing fashion, the buzz around this team will be too strong to keep them out of the playoffs.

[lownslowav8r]

Great article. I’ll be looking for this as I watch games. 

[jrw]

Long, slow drives? You could call it the "Dilly-Dally".

[GangGreen2]

On 10/27/2022 at 7:14 AM, olcodgerduck said:

Wow!  Great analysis Charles!  I like the science displayed in Coach Lanning's strategies (or is it rather strategeries?).  This concept makes the onside kick/stolen possession in the 2nd quarter of the Bruins game all the more relevant. Not only did we get to score in back to back possessions - we stole time! 

 

(Can you imagine an old fashioned bandit, kerchief over his face, six gun drawn, entering a bank and yelling "Gimme your time or else!!". And grabbing the clock off the wall, jumping on his horse and racing out of town, chased in a cloud of dust by the Sheriff and a posse!)  I posit that is exactly what Coach Lanning did as a result of the successful onside kick.

 

On 10/27/2022 at 7:14 AM, olcodgerduck said:

 

Olcodger, I love your "Old West" example!  Well played!  And I think you make a great point . . . the onside kick decision was a big one, because if the Ducks don't get that, the risk is LOSING a possession (and giving UCLA a short field) and GIFTING the Bruins an extra possession, as well as potentially losing control of the clock (though the defensive "bend, don't break" strategy is still in play here, if you can muster it).

 

[Charles Fischer]

My friends, I realized after I wrote the article that I came on strong as "this is the strategy," when the truth is--I do not know for certain.  Sometimes you feel certain, and have facts to support your position, but in the end...we are all just guessing.

 

It is like this OBD Member after the Georgia game who was a COMPLETE IDIOT.  Or the people who were declaring in early September that Bo Nix is not the answer, but Ty Thompson should be played instead. Or the people last week writing every day last week that UCLA was going to win? In all cases--the logic was great, but again--we are all just guessing in the end.

 

I've made some big calls in the last 11 years, but I've also been wrong on some biggies an equal number of times.  When people assert they know for sure on a topic....I just roll my eyes.  I don't have to say anything, because like you and I...those people will be humbled ultimately as well.

 

So while I think I connected some very compelling dots--I do not know for sure.  Thus why it will be so interesting to watch for it in games, as I sure love how all three major elements are working together toward victory.

 

[Duck Fan 76]

On 10/27/2022 at 8:20 AM, jrw said:

Long, slow drives? You could call it the "Dilly-Dally".

That is pretty funny honestly but I don't think it carries the tone that Oregon is trying to get across.  DL said he wants opposing teams to come out of games not wanting to play Oregon again.

 

How about the "Creeping Death".  You can see it coming but you can't do anything about it.

[Drake]

Good article. 
 

I agree and think the defense is definitely predicated on limiting explosive plays. An earlier FishDuck article spoke about our use of the Cover 2 defense. With 2 safeties you can make throwing downfield more challenging to opposing QBs. Thus, limiting explosive plays. 
 

The recipe to defeat the Ducks seems to be throwing underneath our 4-2-5 defense. Short swing passes are effective, but still eat up a lot of clock.
 

These plays put pressure on our linebackers to react quickly to what they are seeing. Play action passing plays put a lot of pressure on linebackers. Playing them effectively is easier said then done. 
 

Many of these plays are not as effective as they were when Georgia exposed a defense that was adjusting to a new defensive scheme. Some will attribute our “bad defense” to poor linebacker play.

I would challenge anyone to play linebacker in a 4-2-5 defense and try to excel at stopping running plays and play action pass plays with teams that run and pass effectively. 

[Charles Fischer]

On 10/27/2022 at 6:26 AM, NJDuck said:

Even Klatt and Pate were commenting on how good Oregon is.

Thank you NJDuck for your thoughts, your observations about Pate and Klatt....and all the incredible work you do posting articles for the rest of us.  Just trying to do my part too!

[Duck Fan 76]

On 10/27/2022 at 2:05 AM, FishDuck Article said:

the new Dan Lanning game strategy is a comprehensive one

I tend to agree with you that the Oregon game plans are definitely coordinated between all phases of the game.  I think you are right that KD diagnosed the weapons and his playbook and decided with the staff to focus on score differential via efficiency.  I also think the defense had talent but maybe not Georgia talent so with an efficient offense the bend but don't break was the logical choice.

 

I feel like Oregon's defense is definitely designed to make the opposing teams earn their yards.  Every play has a chance for somethin bad to happen and with Oregon focused on fundamentals they are increasing the chances that the opposition will get frustrated when behind and do something foolish.   

 

This is a great strategy for winning games when ahead.  If Oregon falls behind though it's important that they have quick strike offense capability and a defense that can tighten up and force the stop.  We saw that in Pullman and against extremely talented teams we may have to see that gear shift again.

Edited October 27, 2022 by Duck Fan 76

[Charles Fischer]

On 10/27/2022 at 7:14 AM, olcodgerduck said:

 

My observation of this current Duck's staff, buoyed by the above analysis, is that they are reducing the random, and further convinces me that great times are ahead for Our Beloved Ducks!

Thank you olcodgerduck, as I agree with your conclusion.  Next week, I begin to take these concepts further as I wanted to introduce the ideas today of what I thought was going on.

 

The beauty also is....the opposing coaches can see on film, and know precisely what Oregon is doing and why.  But it is hard to stop it!

[Charles Fischer]

On 10/27/2022 at 7:36 AM, Smith72 said:

While reading I remembered the movie Moneyball, and the use of statistics to change how baseball was played.  Coach Tony DeMeo's shortening the game strategy was eye opening for me. 

Your compliment Coach, means a lot to me.  And I did not think of it, but Moneyball is a good comparison.  As for Coach Tony DeMeo?  He has contributed a ton to FishDuck over the years...

 

[Charles Fischer]

On 10/27/2022 at 8:06 AM, The Kamikaze Kid said:

So Kelly at his peak since leaving the Ducks just got out coach by a coach and offensive coordinator coaching in just their seventh game at their positions.  That fact still boggles my mind.

Agreed.  I've thought about that often.  I would like to believe that when my instructional videos about the Chip Kelly offense were hot with all high school coaches and young coaches...that maybe Lanning and Dilly viewed them at that time?  Thus beating Chip in Autzen would have seemed surreal to Lanning...

 

And truly, what Chip did at Oregon cannot be duplicated by Chip again--anywhere.  But Lanning is showing that perhaps he can Oregon back to those heights again...with an updated version of what Chip did in Autzen?

 

Fascinating stuff.

[Charles Fischer]

On 10/27/2022 at 8:58 AM, Duck Fan 76 said:

How about the "Creeping Death".  You can see it coming but you can't do anything about it.

I love it, and reminds me of a great tennis players years ago, Martina Hingis who was called, "The Smiling Assassin" as she politely would skewer her opponents with a smile.

 

[Charles Fischer]

On 10/27/2022 at 9:02 AM, Drake said:

The recipe to defeat the Ducks seems to be throwing underneath our 4-2-5 defense. Short swing passes are effective, but still eat up a lot of clock.

Yep.  The slants and perimeter-Bubble passes will be open all day with a Cover-2, but it takes time to grind down the field and may not result in points, or get disappointed with a field goal.  And now the game is shorter to come back on Oregon, and the pressure on the defense to stop Oregon becomes even stronger.

 

In the article, I have links to the article about our Cover-2 defense and our blitzing strategy, of which all work together toward the same cohesive result.  (IMHO!)

 

[DazeNconfused]

This is a great article, Charles. I don't see any other sites yet really grasp what we saw and wrote about over a month ago with the Bend-But-Don't-Break Redux article you helped me with.

 

We saw great examples of this with just three plays against UCLA. Jamal Hill and Bennett Williams had double coverage and broke up an early pass in the endzone, Gonzo defended a deep pass and had the interception if he held the ball to the ground. Addison came over from deep safety to help cover the deepest WR on the route and had the endzone interception.

 

Those were three game changing plays that were defended by the backend of the defense. Gonzo was turned loose man-to-man and the other two the deep safety got over to help defend. 

 

We just aren't seeing WRs getting behind our defense for big plays when teams try to force the ball deep. 

 

We are giving the bubble screen, slants, crosses and WR wheel routes our LBs have been beat on for TDs up all day long, but you have to force the ball if you go deep on us. 

 

We forced three FGs and had an interception - so we limited the scoring of UCLA on four drives. Of a potential 28 points on those drives they scored 9. 

 

I think fans are reading too much into the Ducks defense by where they rate in total defense. Lanning isn't employing an aggressive havoc scheme to limit total yards - so total defense isn't the matrix to judge the Ducks defense by.

 

The matrix to judge the Ducks defense by are four things.

 

Rush yards per game by a defense that plays mostly two deep safeties. Oregon protects against the deep ball while still having a good run D. 

Explosion plays allowed.

Points allowed per possession. 

Total team wins.

 

Fans should also note the Ducks have a top 4 SEC defense talent wise and the No. 1 in the Pac-12. The Ducks this year face tons of good passing QBs in the Pac, out of conference, and in the Pac-12 Championship. DTR, Rising, Penix, Ward, Jayden De Laura, Stenson Bennett, Jalen Hall and possibly Caleb Williams in the Pac-12 title game. 

 

Now ask yourself what are the strengths of the Ducks defense? No explosion passing plays, run defense (with two deep safeties), getting pressure on the QB rushing four with simulated pressures, and getting coverage sacks when teams try to run deep routes and not take the underneath passes we are giving them.

 

Seems like Lanning had a plan first year for the defense talent he inherited and the QBs they would face. I'd also say Lanning knew he would have offense that makes games a track meet and found a way to use that to his advantage. 

Circa 2012: Lanning Replicates Bend-But-Don’t-Break Defense

FISHDUCK.COM

---

Duck fans, sometimes two heads are better than one, and amazing minds tend to think alike. It appears Oregon’s head coach Dan Lanning has concluded that the...

 

[Charles Fischer]

On 10/27/2022 at 10:26 AM, DazeNconfused said:

I think fans are reading too much into the Ducks defense by where they rate in total defense. Lanning isn't employing an aggressive havoc scheme to limit total yards - so total defense isn't the matrix to judge the Ducks defense by.

Dazed...you give us another fantastic post explaining what we are doing on defense, and how it coalesces with an efficient offense and a shortening-the-game tactic for an overall game strategy.

 

You bring up a great point; we need to judge the defense in different terms, a different perspective based upon the objective as Dilly does (being efficient) on offense.

 

When we consider what you wrote about what Oregon is stopping on defense, and accomplishing toward the overall team goals--the defense is doing better than most of us give credit to.  I should not just look at points given up per game when so much is scored in garbage time.  How much is scored after the game is no longer in doubt?  A ton...  

 

Great stuff Dazed...

 

[DUCati855]

On 10/27/2022 at 8:58 AM, Duck Fan 76 said:

You could call it the "Dilly-Dally".

So, quarters 1-3 "Dilly-Dilly" 4th quarter "Dilly-Dally"?

[Steven A]

I did notice that early in the last drive we weren't using the whole clock, 15+ seconds left when snapped.  

 

I supposed that was a blend of bleeding the clock but keeping some tempo for momentum. 

[Charles Fischer]

On 10/27/2022 at 11:23 AM, Steven A said:

I did notice that early in the last drive we weren't using the whole clock, 15+ seconds left when snapped.  

I believe I read in a post-game interview that leaving that much time left on the clock with each play was a mistake they need to work on.  Because of that there was more time left on the final 4th down play than planned, and thus why Nix had to fade way back and throw the long pass into the air to burn more time.

 

I expect to see us get better at that.  Chip's teams were superb at going into what I called, "Turtle-Time."

 

[EastBayDuckDad]

Great article and observations, Charles. Alioti was never given enough credit for the flex defense he managed to pair with the CK up tempo minimal TOP offense that demanded it. 

 

The college football world was amazed then transformed by Kelly's offense a decade ago. Saban initially thought it was the devil and claimed there would be more injuries, real or (in Cal's case, ironically under coach Lupoi) imagined. Eventually even Saban and Alabama adopted some of the up tempo game.

 

Defenses learned there were ways to slow it down and even defeat it. Even so it became a situational part of most offenses if not the sole weapon. The Oregon Kelly offense was literally lightning in a bottle that revolutionized college football but ultimately became a one trick pony. It could be overcome by fast enough bigger defenders that could stuff the smaller and athletic o-line and corral the skill players (see: Nattys: tOSU and Auburn)

 

Even Kelly has evolved away from the 24/7 go-go approach. What is so impressive is how DL has taken a fast and creative offense under Dilly, added a bend but don't break defense and combined it with tempo, snail ball, creative clock management and smart situational football.

 

He outcoached the Yoda (put big ears on Chip and tell me he doesn't resemble him a little) Jedi Master at his first crack and even threw in a pair huevos grandes ala the Chipster with that onside kick.

[EzDucksIt]

I love that Picture of Chip and Neuheisel's son watching their opportunities slowly fading away.  That seven plus minute drive, is like two and a half possessions for Ucla.  

On 10/27/2022 at 10:26 AM, DazeNconfused said:

We forced three FGs and had an interception - so we limited the scoring of UCLA on four drives. Of a potential 28 points on those drives they scored 9. 

This right here, is so important, it represents 19 lost points.  And I have been upset about, how many points the Defense has been giving up.  WoW!  Thanks DNC, for pointing that out.  Sometimes we miss these important details.

[HappyToBeADuck]

Great article Charles, i can imagine all your brain cells being burnt around the edges. And great insights, teachings and big time, world class comments by OBDF members.

 

One of the best threads this season. Thanks to all. The forum has been a great and safe refuge for me during a very difficult time. A great escape.

 

This one of a kind site just keeps getting better and better because of all of you.

[Log Haulin]

I thought I heard Lanning talking about game management in an interview this week. He was specifically talking about the final 4 minutes v. UCLA.  That he needs to get better.

 

That final drive ended with Nix having to run around a bit then launching the ball high into the air to run the clock out. I think it bothered Lanning that he wasn't able to end it on the previous 3rd down.

 

DL has made statements throughout the season about game management. Use of clock is a big part of that. Just look at the middle 8 stats. Those numbers confirm his focus on managing the game at a high level.

 

Well done on your high level pondering and communicating those thoughts to us in a coherent way. Very well done Charles. 

[Charles Fischer]

On 10/27/2022 at 6:01 PM, Log Haulin said:

Just look at the middle 8 stats.

Each of the three components, (Efficient offense, conservative defense and shortening the game) has smaller components that has management occurring like we rarely get to see.  Your observation about the middle 8 minutes is more evidence of that attention to detail that few coaches follow, and comes under the use of the clock as you mentioned.

 

Great stuff, and thank you for the kind thoughts.  

[Notalot]

"Cold clock 'em" I say.

 

The Dilly-Tosh double team works for me.