Oregon Ducks Football: Huskies Being Underestimated?

[FishDuck Article]

Going into the Championship game how confident are you?

 

Oregon Ducks Football: Huskies Being Underestimated?

FISHDUCK.COM

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Our Oregon Ducks football team has been on a historic run to the PAC-12 Championship in 2023, as Oregon stands primed and ready for a...

[HappyToBeADuck]

Alex without any doubt, the eye test reveals the Ducks to be playing and executing better than the huskies. 

 

The betting lines reveal that those betting experts agree, too!

 

For this fan it stops right there. Eye tests or appearances do not win football games.

 

Scoreboard does!

 

The damn huskies are 23-2 and OBD's are 21-4 the last 2 seasons. The difference? KD and his players beat the Ducks twice....... on the scoreboard, where it matters.

 

Why? How?

 

In both games the Duck players out played the huskies. The Duck players put themselves in position to win both games. Even with Bo's injury the Ducks were poised for victory.....

 

However......

 

Poor decision making (take the points coach or punt) and weak play calls by Stein (KD recognized Steins tendencies) enabled the putrid dogs to win both games.

 

DL and staff have probably not changed but hopefully they can modify those tendencies and choices.....

 

This game will be an edge of your seat, back and forth, nail biter to the very end.

 

The Ducks should win! The Duck D is vastly improved from Mid October. If the DB's cover the great WR's the front 7 will cause chaos in the husky back field. If not?

 

The 2 glaring weak points the Ducks have in their aresonal are converting on some (not all) 3rd or 4th and short situations. And Cam's confidence!

 

Either of those 2 can and may be key in the outcome of this game...

 

I am betting on the Ducks to win but they dont cover. This group of special players will find a way to win.

 

Go Ducks, find that 1% improvement and beat the huskies. The Real Dawgs are gonna be waiting.....

[Haywarduck]

I overestimate my dogs abilities all the time. My dog is brilliant and can do no wrong. That delusion stops with my dog!

 

The dawgs up north are worthless. My fear is their dog trainer. A good dog trainer can turn a stupid mutt into an amazing tool. That is what DeBoer has done, but this dog has no manners.

 

The first thing you do with a mutt like this is knee him in the chest when you jumps on you. You have to train it to behave.  This mutt is going to jump all over us and it will take repeatedly knocking him on his hind end to gain control.

 

The other problem with this mutt is the never ending noise it will make, bark, bark, bark. What the Ducks need to do is prevent it from the start. This dog will bark because of stimulus. We must never let them get the stimulus, positive yardage, stops of defense, just shut them down early and keep scoring, the noise will stop.

 

Lastly this dawg really isn't trained that well. If Oregon plays its game the dawgs will, well you know, all over the place. Lets just take care of our business early, and do the training DeBoer hasn't yet, teach these dawgs how to lay down! We all remember they know how to lay down, we just need to teach them again, with gusto!

[Vandownbytheriverduck]

The money is 3/1 coming in favor of the Purple people yet the line isn't Dropping. 
 

Vegas knows something. The late big money often a tell. 
 

Right now, Vegas likes the Ducks. ALOT

 

Got my tickets, leaving the Van for a night out.  

[Ktmguy2018]

I may be underestimating the pups based one what my eye test tells me.

 

BUT, after watching a season of Ducks vs. Them and seeing the preparation that goes in, I don't for a moment believe that DL has the team underestimating the pups.

 

I think Penix has nightmares about a giant being called DorlusBirch that chases him constantly around the field and that he will not be comfortable in the pocket when he realizes the beast is real.

[Augduck]

On 11/29/2023 at 6:16 AM, Vandownbytheriverduck said:

The money is 3/1 coming in favor of the Purple people yet the line isn't Dropping. 
 

Vegas knows something. The late big money often a tell. 
 

Right now, Vegas likes the Ducks. ALOT

 

Got my tickets, leaving the Van for a night out.  

I'm admittedly not a gambling aficionado so a translation here would help.  Don't understand about the money being 3/1 in favor of the Dawgs.  Will appreciate a quick primer. 

[CjAllen180]

I have a LOT of faith in the Ducks. 

 

And from what I've seen, Coach Lanning will definitely have the team ready to play. It's hard to underestimate a team that's already beaten you, regardless of what Vegas says, ya know?

[QuackerBarrel]

I would imagine the game is being played on repeat ala the Civil War

[jrw]

Decades of being a Ducks' fan have taught to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. Even with the caveat that this team seems to be different, I'm not counting any chickens yet.

[NJDuck]

 

Washington is pretty much at full strength.  DeBoer has been in similar situations before, playing the same team more than once.  This is one heck of a good coach.  This team is most likely feeling disrespected at this moment as well.  This will be a dangerous team going into the championship game.

 

For Oregon

“He’s out there and getting better,” Lanning said when asked about Bryant. “I think we’ll be in good shape to have him this weekend.”

 

When it comes to Florence, and fellow cornerback Rodrick Pleasant, Lanning was a little bit less clear.

 

“I’m expecting us to have some of those guys back,” Lanning said. “We’ll have to wait and see as the week progresses. That’s kind of the way it goes at this point of the season.”

 

Would be great to be back at full strength, but we could be missing some players.

 

I still feel Oregon is a different team then when they played Washington the first time.  They're much improved.and on a mission!

 

DeBoer thinks he understands Lanning's and Stein's weaknesses.  This is where Lanning and Stein could get the upper hand on DeBoer.  Their growth will surprise him.

 

Go Ducks, Fly High!!

 

Kalen DeBoer breaks down Washington health report ahead of Pac-12 Championship

 

As Washington heads into the Pac-12 Championship Game against Oregon on Saturday, it does so much healthier than it has been in a while.

 

Even a brief injury scare for EDGE Zion Tupuola-Fetui last week proved to be minor, and the talented edge defender is expected to play this weekend against the Ducks.

 

“I’d expect him to be, yeah,” coach Kalen DeBoer said. “I think relative to where we were at maybe middle of the season, I think we’re healthier. So guys, different guys have been out throughout.”

 

But many of those Washington players have returned to action or will shortly.

DeBoer explained exactly where his team is getting healthier right now going into a pivotal Pac-12 Championship Game with playoff hopes on the line.

 

“The receiving corps’ slowly come back into being intact,” DeBoer said. “Offensive line is kind of back to where it was early in the year with (Julius) Buelow being back. Defensively some of those pieces slowly returning. So I think we’re getting in a good spot when it comes to the health of the team.”

 

Taking them on twice

 

One thing that will be interesting about Saturday’s matchup is that it’s a rematch of the regular season meeting between the teams. Washington won that contest 36-33.

 

DeBoer knows that first game means there will be an added level of familiarity both ways.

 

“You learn from the game before,” DeBoer said. “You know they’re going to make adjustments. But, it’s not like there’s any secrets. You know who their personnel are. They know who ours are. You quickly talk through again the details of what they do, how they do it, who they are and you get the plan moving.”

 

It won’t be the first time as a coach DeBoer has faced a team for the second time in the same season, though the challenge Washington will face against Oregon may be steeper than others.

 

“Many times at Sioux Falls, two of the top teams in the country were us and Morningside College,” Kalen DeBoer recalled from his past coaching experience. “We played a regular season game, usually for the conference championship, and then we played usually the second round of the playoffs.

 

“When I was at Fresno State, we played [Boise State] back-to-back weeks. We played them the last game of the regular season. Then, had to turn around and play them in the conference championship. We played them four times in two years. So, I’ve done that a few times.”

 

[Solar]

I'd like think I'm seeing continuous improvement in deficient areas from last season to this season and during this season.

 

Therefore I am optimistic that players and coaches will do better in this game than the last time we played them.

 

I don't think you can say the same for UW as a team.

 

Yes, they are excellent at playing up to the moment, but I don't think it will be enough to overcome a Duck team that has improved holistically.

[EastBayDuckDad]

This scenario reminds me of 2014 where an unranked Arizona beat #2 Oregon at home. In the stunning loss at Autzen, Oregon made mistakes, allowed long drives and had too many penalties, including a critical roughing the passer on a sack that allowed Arizona to continue the final drive that won them the game.

 

Oregon then went on a 7-0 tear to finish, outscoring teams by 288-163.

 

The CG was a dominant 51-13 Oregon beatdown that was led by the defense shutting down #8 Arizona's 500+yd per game offense (granted with their backup QB) allowing only 25yds total in the first half. 

 

That was then and this is now. This 2023 Oregon team has a better defense and a comparable offense to the 2014 version. But as in 2014, the lessons learned from a loss resulted in an epic run to the Pac-12 CG.

 

Fusky has provided the Ducks with hours of game film against common opponents where they survived by the skin of their canines. Opponents that Oregon blew out decisively. Since that first match up in Seattle the mutts have had every potential weakness exposed. DL and staff will have both sides of the ball prepared.

 

Oregon must play smart and error free football, limiting the advantages that UW has at the WR position. The 9.5 line sounds about right given what these two teams have done since the last meeting. The Ducks are the more talented and deeper team overall but cannot underestimate an underDOG but still dangerous Fusky squad that is being told by the pundits and Vegas that they will lose. 

 

I'm hoping for a 2014 replay where the Oregon defense controls the LOS and OBD jumps out to a lead that Fusky can't overcome. Don't let them back in with inopportune penalties, iffy coaching decisions and mistakes. And please, oh please, don't let the outcome rest on a kick as time expires. My bet is they won't and the Ducks punch their ticket to the CFP.

[idontrollonshobbas]

On 11/29/2023 at 6:16 AM, Vandownbytheriverduck said:

The money is 3/1 coming in favor of the Purple people yet the line isn't Dropping. 
 

Vegas knows something. The late big money often a tell. 
 

Right now, Vegas likes the Ducks. ALOT

 

Got my tickets, leaving the Van for a night out.  

Make sure you don't forget to lock the van while you're gone, Matt Foley.  You remember what happened last time.

[Santa Rosa Duck]

56 hours to kick off. I will not place bets on my DUCKS but I think Dan Lanning and company beat the spread handily. Oregon has been playing the last few weeks like a well oiled, finely tuned Porsche. Speaking just for myself, it appears to me that the Huskies have been stumbling down the stretch and barely squeaked to victory in several games. Most of all, is Dan Lanning going to finish his second year with three losses to the Huskies? No Way! GO DUCKS!

[Grandpa Duck]

I am in the Ducks beat the spread camp.  We have done an outstanding job hanging on to the ball.  Sometimes turnovers just happen, tipped pass, bad snap, RB gets hit really hard in a bad place or a receiver slips and falls while the ball is in the air.  We have avoided those misfortunes, for the most part.  That needs to continue, and maybe even Ducks benefit from causing the mutts to have some misfortunes.  Regardless, we have a much better team, and our young staff is maturing.  I'm hoping we receive the first kickoff and march down the field as occurred last Friday.  That would set the tone.

 

I also believe Penix has an injury.  While I would rather we played them at their best health, if our pass rush gets to Penix early, we could be watching a near shut out of the mutts.

[DanLduck]

It's not every day you get a chance at a re-do. And yet, here we are!

 

I think we win and cover, but,

I think UW has some kind of mojo going for them this year. It's very hard to go undefeated, in fact this is first and only time since we went to 12 teams someone has. And yet they have not looked great doing it, but they still got it done. Like I said, some kind of mojo. 

 

When you're outplayed, and still win?

 

So I'm a little concerned. I think we need Bo to be the mvp of this game and be as sharp as he has ever been.

 

We have played hard every week, no reason to doubt now.

And our DB's will need to play great.

[Augduck]

My nerves are in high gear.   Thinking about if I will be able to sleep on Thursday night.

[kirklandduck]

If anyone is underestimating the puppies it might be the media and fans.  But make no mistake, DL is not underestimating them and prepping the team as such.  If he's taking the same approach with UW as he did with the Beavos then it should make for an entertaining and hopefully successful day on Friday.

[Jon Joseph]

Thanks, Alex. 

 

Based on the updated FPI and SP+ rankings, the -9 or so, is spot on.

 

FPI - 3. OREGON / 13. UW - OREGON would win by 10.

 

SP+ - 4. OREGON/ 11. UW - OREGON would win by 7. 

 

ESPN Matchup Predictor. - The game is simulated 10,000 times. Oregon wins 75.8% of the time. UW, 24.2%.

 

But DeBoer has not lost many games and very few big games in his career. UW has been winning ugly but it has been winning.

 

Even if OREGON was a 20-point favorite in this game, I see OREGON showing up with bad intentions.

 

Close for a half to 3 Qs before OREGON stretches its lead and wins by at least 2-scores. 

 

I am curious as to the number of Ducks vs UW fans in attendance. I hope we see a great showing from Ducks fans.

 

GO PUDDLES! PUNCH THE PUPPIES!

[Jon Joseph]

On 11/29/2023 at 11:35 AM, EastBayDuckDad said:

This scenario reminds me of 2014 where an unranked Arizona beat #2 Oregon at home. In the stunning loss at Autzen, Oregon made mistakes, allowed long drives and had too many penalties, including a critical roughing the passer on a sack that allowed Arizona to continue the final drive that won them the game.

 

Oregon then went on a 7-0 tear to finish, outscoring teams by 288-163.

 

The CG was a dominant 51-13 Oregon beatdown that was led by the defense shutting down #8 Arizona's 500+yd per game offense (granted with their backup QB) allowing only 25yds total in the first half. 

 

That was then and this is now. This 2023 Oregon team has a better defense and a comparable offense to the 2014 version. But as in 2014, the lessons learned from a loss resulted in an epic run to the Pac-12 CG.

 

Fusky has provided the Ducks with hours of game film against common opponents where they survived by the skin of their canines. Opponents that Oregon blew out decisively. Since that first match up in Seattle the mutts have had every potential weakness exposed. DL and staff will have both sides of the ball prepared.

 

Oregon must play smart and error free football, limiting the advantages that UW has at the WR position. The 9.5 line sounds about right given what these two teams have done since the last meeting. The Ducks are the more talented and deeper team overall but cannot underestimate an underDOG but still dangerous Fusky squad that is being told by the pundits and Vegas that they will lose. 

 

I'm hoping for a 2014 replay where the Oregon defense controls the LOS and OBD jumps out to a lead that Fusky can't overcome. Don't let them back in with inopportune penalties, iffy coaching decisions and mistakes. And please, oh please, don't let the outcome rest on a kick as time expires. My bet is they won't and the Ducks punch their ticket to the CFP.

The game vs. Arizona for the conference title was the 1 rematch that the losing team reversed in the title game.

 

And it was not just a reversal but a payback whipping put on a Wildcat and Rich Rod.

[cartm25]

I share the cautious optimism of some on this forum.

 

I just don't love the matchup. It has a similar feel to when Oregon struggled with the Air-Raid from Mike Leach's WSU teams over the years.

 

Though, this UW team is Mike Leach's Air Raid on steroids with a Heisman/NFL-caliber QB and 2-3 NFL WRs.

 

I understand that Oregon is the better all around team top to bottom, but sometimes matchups make fights, and I just don't see this one being anything other than a close, stressful game.

 

Bring it on!

[Desert Duck]

There is one group that I'm confident is definitely not underestimating the Huskies... and that is the Duck football team. 

 

And fortunately, they're the only group that matters. 

[Charles Fischer]

You could have a comfortable 17 point lead for most of the game...and in three plays those bastards can turn the tables.  Their QB and receivers are that good...

 

[Santa Rosa Duck]

On 11/29/2023 at 2:38 PM, Charles Fischer said:

You could have a comfortable 17 point lead for most of the game...and in three plays those bastards can turn the tables.  Their QB and receivers are that good...

 

Charles, I think Bo Nix, Troy Franklin and Tez Johnson  are equal to or better than those Huskies you mention.

Edited November 29, 2023 by Santa Rosa Duck

[Haywarduck]

It is a matchup against coaches, end of story. Deboer got the best of Lanning two years in a row. He owns Lanning until otherwise noted.

 

The question I have is can Lanning beat Deboer? I have no doubt the odds are on our side, but odds don't play, nor coach.

 

The saying it's not about the X's and O's, it's about the Johnny's and Joe's is wrong. It is about the the X's and O's, but mostly about Kalen and Dan that make the difference.

[Mic]

I keep hearing on all these Youtube prognostication shows questions about the health (both physical & mental) of Michael Penix.  I guess he's not been playing well since the last time these two teams met up.  Dunno, cause I haven't been watching them play - I can't stand to watch UW play anybody but our Ducks.

 

Evidently this is why the oddsmakers are giving Oregon a 9 point edge: questions about Penix' performance.  Without him up to parr this game is a runaway but with him playing to his ability this game is a lot closer.  Here's hoping Dorlus and Burch put Penix on his butt right out of the box and scare the bejeebies out of him.

 

GO DUCKS!

[Log Haulin]

On 11/29/2023 at 4:43 PM, Haywarduck said:

It is a matchup against coaches, end of story. Deboer got the best of Lanning two years in a row. He owns Lanning until otherwise noted.

 

The question I have is can Lanning beat Deboer? I have no doubt the odds are on our side, but odds don't play, nor coach.

 

The saying it's not about the X's and O's, it's about the Johnny's and Joe's is wrong. It is about the the X's and O's, but mostly about Kalen and Dan that make the difference.

I don't think this is entirely true. I do agree that Lanning played a big part in the loss at Mont Lake. Keep in mind Lanning has coached 26 games in his career, DeBoer 115ish. 

 

But there were other factors involved. Last year Nix took a submarine, lead with the helmet, hit to his legs. Lanning had nothing to do with that, Debore... IDK. Yes Lanning played a roll in last years loss but its not all on Lanning.

 

This year Ducks couldn't make a FG and Nix didn't execute on some 4th downs. Mostly the one that would have iced that game. That was on Nix. If Bo doesn't  lock in on Franklin it's a first down and Ducks kneel out for the win.

 

But this team, including Lanning seems to have gotten better from those mistakes. We will find out on Fri.

[Duckhart2]

This game will come down to how well our Safeties and DBs play. 

 

Penix will get the ball out quicker on slants and screens.

 

We must keep him from too many play action passes.

 

They count on so many PIs each game and they will try to sucker our guys into PIs.

 

We must keep penalties down and get the running game rolling too.

 

[Dr Hilarius]

For the season, OBD are #4 ATS at 9-2-1.

 

Fuskies are 5-6-0, which is so low it was too hard to count the rank.

 

So it seems that if anyone is being underestimated, it’s OBD.

[DuckFan93]

Money was right on last time we played them, so I hope they are right also this time...