How Tough Will The Dawg Game Be?

[Haywarduck]

We may only have to look at the beavs to see how tough road games are. The beavs lost to #21 WSU on the road. They then beat the #10 Utes at home. Winning on the road is tough in the Pac-12 and really anywhere!

 

Utah beat a pretty good Florida team at home. Florida has lost both away games, and beat #11 Tennessee at home. They are undefeated at home.

 

Utah is undefeated at home and actually won a game on the road. The road game was a close one to Baylor who isn't a great team this year.

 

Washington is, of course, undefeated at home. They also beat Michigan State in away game. They came out and thumped them early and never looked back.

 

Basically when a ranked team plays at home they seldom lose. We will be playing a higher ranked team away, and it will be extremely tough. How much more difficult do the Duck faithful see this game? 

 

How big of a deal is playing on the road, and what is needed to win on the road? I look at this game as a massive test where a win isn't the only outcome we need to see, blasphemy I know!

[Jon Joseph]

It will be TOUGH sledding in Seattle with Oregon and UW looking like the most complete teams in a deep Pac-12.

 

Arizona fought tooth and nail and pushed UW all the way to the wire in Tucson. No TD throws for Penix. But UW has a history of struggling in the desert and last night was no exception.

[jrw]

Huskies had 12 penalties for 125 against AZ. Just saying.

[Mic]

On 10/1/2023 at 8:49 AM, Haywarduck said:

How big of a deal is playing on the road, and what is needed to win on the road? I look at this game as a massive test where a win isn't the only outcome we need to see, blasphemy I know!

Tough enough that I picked this one of three games Oregon might lose.  

 

The 1st was TT. This game against Wa is the 2nd.  The Utah game is the 3rd.  All three are road games.  So far the Ducks got by narrowly in Lubbock.  This next game is the toughest one (I think) for them to win this year.  If they do win it, I think they'll handle WSU and OSU both at home. Then there's Utah and it may well come down to how healthy both QB's are, Nix and Rising.  Right now, Utah has no offense.

[Mic]

On 10/1/2023 at 9:09 AM, jrw said:

Huskies had 12 penalties for 125 against AZ. Just saying.

Pac-12 refs.  Oregon has had their share in games too.  I wish Oregon could get the penalty bug under control.  It had a lot to do with Kentucky beating Florida.

[HappyToBeADuck]

As noted above winning on the road is difficult. 

 

Beating TT on the road took all 60 minutes to accomplish......

 

Winning against the huskies, in Mountlake, has been relatively easy the last 20 years.....

 

It will not be easy this year. Most likely it will take the same effort, if not more than it took to get a road win in Columbus, Ohio.

 

IMHO, the huskies will be the toughest and most difficult team on the 2023 schedule. A complete game, bolstered by a dominant defensive effort will be needed for a Duck victory.

 

Dont be fooled by yesterdays Husky game in Tuscon. They will be fired up and motivated in front of the home crowd on national TV.

 

There is no yardstick in previous games played to measure this game against.

 

Best executing offense, coupled with the dominant D will win this game.

 

GO DUCKS.......

[The Kamikaze Kid]

If Khree Jackson is healthy, I like our chances.

[1Ducker1]

Penix will get at least 270 yards so we will have to exploit other weaknesses the the puppies have, and----SCORE SCORE and Score.

 

I say we will need 42 points.

[David Marsh]

On 10/1/2023 at 9:13 AM, Mic said:

Pac-12 refs.  Oregon has had their share in games too.  I wish Oregon could get the penalty bug under control.  It had a lot to do with Kentucky beating Florida.

Against PSU Oregon only had like 1 or 2 flags. 

 

Against TT (pac-12 refs) it was dreadful. Then still pretty bad against Hawaii. But a decent improvement against Colorado. Then yesterday against Stanford there was another significant improvement. 

 

It should be under control against Washington. The coaches aren't going to let up yet on flags. It needs constant reinforcement. Some flags are acceptable but the self inflicted penalties are not and those are the ones that have really diminished the past couple weeks. 

 

It will be interesting to see if the false starts come back at Washington though with the actual crowd noise for the Ducks offense. Stanford isn't exactly loud. 

[EastBayDuckDad]

It will be a very tough game up in Seattle. Oregon will need to be it's best self to win, focused and disciplined. 

 

As described in today's FishDuck article, the shift in priority in Oregon's secondary to playing the receivers instead of the ball has resulted in fewer picks but better overall results. Executing that priority effectively will be critical against the Pups. They have very high quality targets for Penix and limiting those targets will be the best way to control UW's explosive offense.

 

I was impressed by how Arizona kept Penix out of the endzone and am optimistic that the Duck's superior personnel on defense can do something similar while still defending the short pass and somewhat anemic run game. Hopefully Oregon gets KJackson and Popo healthy and we get to see Jacobs play as well. 

 

With a couple of positional exceptions, on paper Oregon has better talent and depth. The Pups will have home field and confidence. It should be the best match-up in years. 

[Mic]

On 10/1/2023 at 9:25 AM, David Marsh said:

It will be interesting to see if the false starts come back at Washington though with the actual crowd noise for the Ducks offense. Stanford isn't exactly loud. 

I've never been to a game in Palo Alto but friends tell me even when it's near capacity it's not loud because the fans aren't noisy like other teams.  Yesterday, there were only 32,000 on-hand for the game.  It was almost like the spring game in Autzen each year.  1-4 will do that.

[tee duke]

Penix is good. He's a quick decision maker who gets rid of the ball quickly. He's deadly accurate, too. That could pose problems for our pass rushers. He also has a bunch of good receivers who snag whatever comes their way. That could pose problems for our secondary. 

 

However Arizona's QB, Fifita ( sp?), lit them up with quick, accurate passes. The Wildcats almost pulled off a win with a gritty performance.

 

Both teams last night also showed me a lot of speed. They look quicker and faster than the Ducks. More than anything else, that worries me.

 

 

[Mic]

On 10/1/2023 at 9:34 AM, tee duke said:

Penix is good. He's a quick decision maker who gets rid of the ball quickly. He's deadly accurate, too. That could pose problems

 

Both teams last night also showed me a lot of speed. They look quicker and faster than the Ducks. More than anything else, that worries me.

Arizona's speed, if such, won't be a problem for Oregon.  They don't play this year.  USC's will challenge Oregon and then we'll see how quick each team is - compared to each other.  Toughness is another factor.  Oregon is beginning to show real toughness on Defense again.  Since the game's in Autzen I have confidence it will come down to both speed & toughness along with execution.  I like Oregon at this point.

[GODUCKS15]

Both UO and UW have really good offences. It seems to me this game will come down to who has the best D. I doubt Oregon can stop UW all that often and the same with UW. This isn't like the TT game where Shough threw it away, UW will get points and so will the Ducks. 

 

It's about who can get that key stop. Long range forecast on Accuweather has rain in Seattle days before, and after so the chances of a wet field are high. A very hyped up crowd and a good chance? Game Day will be there. I don't like the odds. But hey I'm wrong often enough so we'll see. 

 

To the topic, yeah it will be the toughest game of the season IMO.

[Mic]

On 10/1/2023 at 10:17 AM, GODUCKS15 said:

To the topic, yeah it will be the toughest game of the season IMO.

If they get by this one intact (doubtful) I'd say chances are good the Ducks run the table.  WSU, USC, Utah and OSU pose the biggest threats and 3 of those games are in Autzen.  Utah still has no offense and it's beginning to look like Rising isn't going to be back soon enough to get to mid-season form by then.  

[latracey]

Home field has proven, among the better teams in the PAC 12, to be a huge advantage this year. Rest assured, the music will be blaring the next 2 weeks at Duck practices to prepare for what promises to be a crazy atmosphere at Husky Stadium on October 14. 
 

I’m sure the Huskies will be favored in what will probably be the most challenging game yet for both teams. Both teams get a bye week to prepare. I’m hoping it allows Oregon to get a few of its injured key players back in the mix. I like Lanning’s attention to detail in preparing his players, and I like Oregon’s chances to beat Washington this year.

[Log Haulin]

Az held Fusky to 31. Well below Fusky avg. Penix had over 300 yrds passing but zero TD.

 

The energy is going to be off the hook on Oct 14th. Both teams will be different than what we saw this week from that energy alone.

 

Bye weeks aren't always advantageous. Especially when a team is rolling. You just want to keep the momentum going. If one stumbles off the bye week, it could decide the game.

 

Az has a decent defense. Nothing like what the Ducks field when they are focused and motivated. But holding Penix and Fusky to 31 will be a challenge on the road.

 

It's a possibility that Popo and Jackson are a no go. If so, I think the depth of Oregon comes through big. Hate to lose those guys and hopefully JJ will be a go.

 

All said, I am not nervous about this game. Super excited tho. This is going to be an epic battle. 

 

Whoever loses isn't out of the conversation. But the winner takes control of their own destiny.

 

I like Oregon by 7-10. I think the D is going to secure the win late. Solidify themselve into the national conversation in UGA like fashion.

 

Go Ducks!

[David Marsh]

On 10/1/2023 at 9:34 AM, tee duke said:

Penix is good. He's a quick decision maker who gets rid of the ball quickly. He's deadly accurate, too. That could pose problems for our pass rushers. He also has a bunch of good receivers who snag whatever comes their way. That could pose problems for our secondary. 

If Zona has better athletes on the pass rush they would have gotten him a few times there. 

 

Also... to give the pass rush more time having solid man coverage on the back end will make those decisions slightly harder. 

 

This is a game of split seconds... don't need much to to change the outcome. 

 

I think Stanford may have a better offensive line than Washington or at least somewhat comparative. Only Stanford is very underwhelming at every other position. 

 

Get a little heat on Penix and this pass heavy offense will be behind the chains. Always able to break out because it's so pass heavy but 3rd and 10 is still a different beast than 3rd and 4. 

[Santa Rosa Duck]

This will be our biggest  game of the year but my cup is half full. It would not surprise me to see Oregon ahead of Washington in the AP Poll. It will not surprise me to see Oregon favored by three points. It will not surprise me to see College Game Day show up. I like our DUCKS by 12 points!

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

On 10/1/2023 at 12:18 PM, The Kamikaze Kid said:

If Khree Jackson is healthy, I like our chances.

I read on Twitter from some folks who were there that he warmed up after Halftime and looked healthy. I think he was held out so that he would be ready for Washington and because DL knew that Stanford was done scoring for the day.

[Desert Duck]

On 10/1/2023 at 9:13 AM, Mic said:

Pac-12 refs.  Oregon has had their share in games too.  I wish Oregon could get the penalty bug under control.  It had a lot to do with Kentucky beating Florida.

 

Hopefully, yesterday was a harbinger of things to comes as we were signicantly better with only 2 penalties for 20 yards. 

 

[Desert Duck]

On paper right now, I think Oregon is the better team.

 

For me, the wild card is Husky Stadium and the loud & wild crowd that will be there. Husky Stadium, when rocking like it will be, could be the "it" factor. 

 

But if Oregon can handle the noise, block out the hype leading up to the game, and play focused for a full 60 minutes (meaning, not spot the Huskies the first 20 minutes of the game like we did with Stanford), Oregon wins this game. 

 

[NJDuck]

 

Just for fun, stats on both teams after 5 games:

 

Matchup Predictor From ESPN

Oregon vs Washington

 

Oregon vs. Washington (Oct 14, 2023) Live Score - ESPN

WWW.ESPN.COM

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Live coverage of the Oregon Ducks vs. Washington Huskies NCAAF game on ESPN, including live score, highlights and updated stats.

 

Oregon vs Washington Box Score After 5 Games

 

Oregon Ducks vs Washington Huskies Box Score - October 14, 2023 - The Athletic

THEATHLETIC.COM

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Get real-time NCAAF coverage and scores as the Oregon Ducks take on the Washington Huskies at 1:00pm EDT on October 14, 2023. The Athletic brings you the latest stats, scores, and analysis of your favorite teams.

 

 

Comparison Stats After 5 Games

 

Oregon's 2023 Football Cumulative Statistics

 

2023 Football Cumulative Statistics

GODUCKS.COM

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The official 2023 Football cumulative statistics for the University of Oregon Ducks

 

Washington's 2023 Football Cumulative Statistics

 

2023 Football Cumulative Statistics

GOHUSKIES.COM

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The official 2023 Football cumulative statistics for the University of Washington Huskies

[David Marsh]

On 10/1/2023 at 12:51 PM, NJDuck said:

 

Just for fun, stats on both teams after 5 games:

 

Matchup Predictor From ESPN

Oregon vs Washington

 

Oregon vs. Washington (Oct 14, 2023) Live Score - ESPN

WWW.ESPN.COM

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Live coverage of the Oregon Ducks vs. Washington Huskies NCAAF game on ESPN, including live score, highlights and updated stats.

 

Oregon vs Washington Box Score After 5 Games

 

Oregon Ducks vs Washington Huskies Box Score - October 14, 2023 - The Athletic

THEATHLETIC.COM

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Get real-time NCAAF coverage and scores as the Oregon Ducks take on the Washington Huskies at 1:00pm EDT on October 14, 2023. The Athletic brings you the latest stats, scores, and analysis of your favorite teams.

 

 

Comparison Stats After 5 Games

 

Oregon's 2023 Football Cumulative Statistics

 

2023 Football Cumulative Statistics

GODUCKS.COM

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The official 2023 Football cumulative statistics for the University of Oregon Ducks

 

Washington's 2023 Football Cumulative Statistics

 

2023 Football Cumulative Statistics

GOHUSKIES.COM

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The official 2023 Football cumulative statistics for the University of Washington Huskies

The ESPN match predictor is funny at the Runningback position as it is comparing Bucky Irving to Washington's Dillion Johnson. It looks like the two are evening matched in stats but the reality is that Oregon has two other runningbacks behind Irving that have close to the same stats as Irving. There is no comparison between these two team's run games.

[Haywarduck]

On 10/1/2023 at 10:30 AM, Mic said:

If they get by this one intact (doubtful) I'd say chances are good the Ducks run the table.  WSU, USC, Utah and OSU pose the biggest threats and 3 of those games are in Autzen.  Utah still has no offense and it's beginning to look like Rising isn't going to be back soon enough to get to mid-season form by then.  

Good point, on the chance to run the tables, this is the big game.

 

I look at the OSU game as the other game that is a big risk. Home field advantage hasn't always been the biggest factor. The beavs had our number last year, and will be putting everything on the line this year.

 

I do hope Lanning understands how big the dawg and beav game is to the Duck Faithful. He needs to get on the board with wins in these rivalry games.

 

The National Championship is the ultimate goal, but wins against the beavs and dawgs is how one compares coaching histories. CK, 4-0 against both, and Brooks ruled the beavs, while Bellotti new these games were big and had winning records against both.

 

Next game is important to show growth in all areas of our football program, and get winning again against our rivals!

[Duckhart2]

Oregon has played well up there. Penix is good but we will pick him off twice.

We win the turn over battle 3-1

Ducks 44

Dawgs 38

[Mic]

On 10/1/2023 at 10:39 AM, Log Haulin said:

I like Oregon by 7-10. I think the D is going to secure the win late. Solidify themselve into the national conversation in UGA like fashion.

It should be interesting to see what the odds-makers say on the betting line.  I'd guess they'll have the Huskies as the favorite by at least -6 points.  The O/U will also be interesting.  65 maybe.  I highly doubt either team will score their average in this one.  Unless it goes into OT.  I probably won't pick on this one either (I sat out the Colorado game pick) because I never pick against Oregon and I'd seriously have a hard time picking for them this go-round.  I really don't know who wins this one but the Huskies have the home field and that might be enough.

[Mic]

On 10/1/2023 at 1:58 PM, David Marsh said:

The ESPN match predictor is funny at the Runningback position as it is comparing Bucky Irving to Washington's Dillion Johnson. It looks like the two are evening matched in stats but the reality is that Oregon has two other runningbacks behind Irving that have close to the same stats as Irving. There is no comparison between these two team's run games.

I wonder if Whittington will be ready to go?  Ankles are hard things to bounce back quickly from, so much depends on it being limber and painless to the twisting and stresses.  But your point is a good one, Oregon doesn't rely on one back to do most of the running. And Bo Nix is a runner they have to account for as well.  Dowdell looks to be getting better as well. And down at the goal line, I still like Haasenritter though we haven't seen him much lately.  The kid is tough in short yardage situations. He's small, compact and very tough, can squeeze thru small holes.

[Mike West]

A close loss won't be all that bad.

 

It is difficult to see a win in this spot.  I do like, however, that Dan Lanning is our HC.  One thing I have noted the past two weeks is Lanning and Company are great when they face the expected, and struggle with the unexpected.  I doubt UW has shown their complete offense.  I do believe OBD can handle that offense this year-the CBs are really that good.  Its the Safeties and LBs I am concerned about.  

 

We will score...about 31-38.  Again, I believe the Fuskies will throw some new wrinkles that will take a quarter or a half to adjust to.  After that its curtains for the UW defense. But what will the score be at that point?

 

I have always been of the belief that an awesome coach can take what you've thrown at them and obliterate it.  In drive (not a quarter later, not a half later-but right in the middle of the drive you are in on the field).  I believe that because I believe you already know what they know, the respective talent you each have, and that there is only so many things you can do to said talent on either side of the ball.  So in essence-whoever can play street ball better is the better coach.

 

That sounds completely ridiculous to coaches, but I guarantee you-the best coaches are the best suckers when it comes to taking what they do and ruining it.  

 

So enough with my rant, because neither coach is going to see something weird about their opponent-figure it out- and just nuke it.

 

That said, I believe this is going to look a lot like last year.  Down to the last second.  These teams are just too good to stop, and to beat long enough to run away from.  Mistakes will make the difference in the game (Coaches, Players and in the minute decisions).  

 

Trends suggest UW comes out with the win.  Let's hope OBD buck the trend.

Edited October 1, 2023 by Mike West

[Desert Duck]

On 10/1/2023 at 2:11 PM, Duckhart2 said:

Oregon has played well up there.

 

I had to take a look at our @ Fuskyland record since 2013.

 

You are correct. @ Fuskyland has been quite good to Oregon as of late.

 

Ducks have gone 4-1 up there since 2013.

[Mic]

On 10/1/2023 at 3:06 PM, Mike West said:

It is difficult to see a win in this spot. 

 

Trends suggest UW comes out with the win.  Let's hope OBD buck the trend.

My feelings too, which is why I'll be sitting this game pick out that Charles offers each week.  I never pick against the Ducks and I'd have a hard time picking them to win this one.  I'm hoping I will be as wrong on this as I was wrong when I thought the Colorado game was going to be a shootout. 

Edited October 1, 2023 by Mic

[Mudslide]

 On 10/1/2023 at 9:18 AM, The Kamikaze Kid said:

 

"I read on Twitter from some folks who were there that he warmed up after Halftime and looked healthy. I think he was held out so that he would be ready for Washington and because DL knew that Stanford was done scoring for the day."

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I hope the twitter folks know the difference between him and T. Holden, also #5.

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[Pennsylvania Duck]

 

 

 

 

[TexasDuck]

This will be a barn burner.  The best game of the day in any conference.  We should win, but will have to bring our A game to make that happen.  

[Jon Joseph]

On 10/1/2023 at 12:13 PM, Mic said:

Pac-12 refs.  Oregon has had their share in games too.  I wish Oregon could get the penalty bug under control.  It had a lot to do with Kentucky beating Florida.

2 penalties (and missing caffeine in the 1st Q) in Palo Alto. Can't get much better than this especially when playing aggressively on D. 

 

Meanwhile, UW had 125 penalty yards against AZ in Tucson.

[Desert Duck]

One thing that I statistically like about playing UW & CU is that for both teams, about 80% of their offense comes from passing... making them much more one dimensional. 

 

Whereas Oregon is extremely well balanced at about a 60/40 passing to rushing attack... and yet, even with that kind of balance, Bo is still putting up exceptional numbers.

 

If our defense can continue to get pressure on the QB and disrupt his rhythm like we did against CU & Stanford, I really like our chances.

 

 

[Charles Fischer]

From another article....

 

"The Wildcats went up against the No. 7 team in the country without their starting quarterback or their starting tailback and didn’t really flinch. It held UW to a season-low in points, yards, and yards per play. It also sacked Penix twice in one game, which has been otherwise unheard of since he arrived in Seattle."

 

We can do better than Arizona...

 

[Dave23]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Ducks win this one by 21. They're going to be very hard to stop on offense as the mutts are 65th in total defense nationally and 8th in the PAC. Meanwhile the Ducks are 8th nationally and 1st in the PAC in defending the pass.

 

Oregon is going to get some stops where the Mutts D is going to have a tough go of it. The only thing that has stop the Ducks are the Ducks.  Ball control and clean football will be the keys to the game. 

 

I know stats are deceiving but the eyeball test is telling me that their Defense is nowhere near as good as ours and our offense is more balanced and just as dangerous.

 

Yes I'm wearing duck pond green colored glasses today.

[Mudslide]

Home field to Mutts.  Equal passing.  Edge to Ducks on running.  Larger edge to Ducks on defense. 

 

No sweat.  Ducks by 14!  If it rains a lot, Ducks splash by Mutts by 21.  

 

Have faith, mates.

Edited October 2, 2023 by Mudslide

[chrisjenn99]

On 10/1/2023 at 11:13 AM, Mic said:

I wish Oregon could get the penalty bug under control.

Not too shabby this week:

[Mic]

Oregon's had a couple clean games, penalty-wise, and that's great.  They've also had a couple that were bad.  Playing a bitter rival on their home-field will test their self-control and I expect Coach Lanning will be stressing that all during the bye week. The noise in the stadium will also test their ability to communicate along the line to avoid the dreaded false start bug.  

 

Then there's the wild card: Pac-12 refs. Can't do anything about that but play your best and keep your cool.