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Solar

Rationale for Predicting a Blowout vs. USC

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Oregon beat Colorado 42-6 and the next week Colorado took USC to overtime.

 

USC lost to Utah and the next week we beat Utah 35-6.

 

USC beat Cal by 1 point (thanks to Cal giving the ball away 4 times) and the next week we beat Cal 63-19.

 

The shocking thing I saw against UW is how drained Caleb looked at the end of the game. This will be their 8th game since their bye week. They don't have depth and are worn down.

 

Looking at the size and lack of strength of the USC players gives me Oregon Ducks 2016 vibes.

 

This game will be a blowout. A 14 point spread is the easiest money you'll get all year.

 

Edited by Solar
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Caveat: I am no genius.

 

That said, I would run the ball and bleed the clock until they can consistently stop our backs.  Keep the ball out of Williams' hands and build a lead through a quick first half.  

 

After a 7:30pm cold November start in Autzen, and a 3 score deficit at Halftime, if the Ducks get possession to start the second half and score, the Trojans will fold.

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On 11/5/2023 at 7:44 AM, Solar said:

how drained Caleb looked at the end of the game.

Carrying a full offensive load and your defense on your back for 3 quarters will do that to you.

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Here is where I get nervous: the UW loss was so bad Riley has to fire Grinch and the USC D responds with an inspired performance. 
 

Their D has quit on Grinch.  
 

I hope Riley keeps him for at least one more game.  

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The unrealistic trojan boy fans have been brought back to reality.
 

They payed big bucks to bring in LR and one of his QBs. LR made enough to buy himself a mini-mansion and settled into the LA lifestyle for a run at National prominence. The media loved it, the fans loved it. 
 

The fans had dreams…
 

Those dreams vanished once their 2023 defense stepped onto the field. 

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The nature if College Football teams is that the reveal themselves as the season goes on. They get better or they get worse. Part of that is because 18 year olds aren't done growing and maturing, Physically and mentally. Learning and being disciplined in anything is a growing aspect for these teenagers. They are extremely emotional and can give up rather quickly. A team can be lost.

 

U$C is on the verge of a complete melt down. It hasn't happened yet. All their losses have been close. Oregon as a team has gotten better. Its obvious the Team as a whole is understanding their individual roles and the Coaching is exceptional. 

 

The bottom line is that when you plug in those metrics then you have a probability of a lop sided game that can make the fragile team fall off the map. A complete team gaining steam against a team losing their dream. Oregon beats U$C 45-24 and then U$C gives up on the season. Not that they won't win any more games, but their dream is over. 

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On 11/5/2023 at 9:08 AM, 1Funduck said:

Oregon beats U$C 45-24 and then U$C gives up on the season.

I don’t see DL letting the Trojans leave Autzen without hanging at least 50 on ‘em.

 

DL knows when to make a statement, and Utah’s D is far superior to U$C’s.

 

U$C let Cal score 49 points. CAL!

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59-24 is going to be my prediction

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Oregon should easily beat USC, if we play a clean game. 
 

However, what has me nervous is the flip side. If Oregon comes out of the gates slow again (like they did against Stanford and Cal), turns the ball over and/or shoots themselves in the foot with penalties (like the Texas Tech game), USC could build a 21-0 lead and we would be chasing them the entire evening. What if Caleb Williams has the game of his life, scrambling and throwing dimes to his talented wide receivers resulting in a shoot out? Those are the kinds of games Dan Lanning and staff want to avoid. 
 

This game makes me nervous because USC has an explosive offense, lead by the defending Heisman. I’m just hoping for a clean game by the Ducks and a W on Saturday evening. Style points don’t matter, just beat SC. 

Edited by OregonDucks
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On 11/5/2023 at 9:08 AM, 1Funduck said:

The nature if College Football teams is that the reveal themselves as the season goes on. They get better or they get worse. Part of that is because 18 year olds aren't done growing and maturing, Physically and mentally. Learning and being disciplined in anything is a growing aspect for these teenagers. They are extremely emotional and can give up rather quickly. A team can be lost.

 

U$C is on the verge of a complete melt down. It hasn't happened yet. All their losses have been close. Oregon as a team has gotten better. Its obvious the Team as a whole is understanding their individual roles and the Coaching is exceptional. 

 

The bottom line is that when you plug in those metrics then you have a probability of a lop sided game that can make the fragile team fall off the map. A complete team gaining steam against a team losing their dream. Oregon beats U$C 45-24 and then U$C gives up on the season. Not that they won't win any more games, but their dream is over. 

Gasp... !?! LR is only (mentally) 18 years old???

That explains a lot!

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On 11/5/2023 at 9:54 AM, OregonDucks said:

Oregon should easily beat USC, if we play a clean game. 
 

However, what has me nervous is the flip side. If Oregon comes out of the gates slow again (like they did against Stanford and Cal), turns the ball over and/or shoots themselves in the foot with penalties (like the Texas Tech game), USC could build a 21-0 lead and we would be chasing them the entire evening. What if Caleb Williams has the game of his life, scrambling and throwing dimes to his talented wide receivers resulting in a shoot out? Those are the kinds of games Dan Lanning and staff want to avoid. 
 

This game makes me nervous because USC has an explosive offense, lead by the defending Heisman. I’m just hoping for a clean game by the Ducks and a W on Saturday evening. Style points don’t matter, just beat SC. 

Exactly how I felt before the Utah game, but the Ducks came out clean and crisp and handled them easily on the road.  Here's hoping the same happens next week, this time in the comfy confines of Autzen. 

 

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On 11/5/2023 at 10:32 AM, DuckFan33 said:

Exactly how I felt before the Utah game, but the Ducks came out clean and crisp and handled them easily on the road.  Here's hoping the same happens next week, this time in the comfy confines of Autzen. 

 


Utah had a number of key players out for the season, including their starting QB, and does not have the offense that USC does.
 

If you have a high scoring offense, you are never out of a game and are extremely dangerous. That is what concerns me about USC. 
 

On paper, Oregon should win but crazy things happen in November. 

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I want 70!

 

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Mr. FishDuck

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I think it could be a trap game unless Bo really steps it up. There is no indication he can't, won't and it won't be a blowout.

 

The scary thing is Williams is the Heisman winner, the team has talent, and they can regain their sc swagger with one win. That is where the Ducks have to continue to play their best game, and not worry about the other team, just take care of their business.

 

What is particularly reassuring is where I saw a few times where players started to lose their cool, but repeatedly the other players reeled them back. These players seem to be playing for a greater cause than just one player, and there is no panic.

 

It is amazing to watch and realize the potential of what might be happening.

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On 11/5/2023 at 11:03 AM, Charles Fischer said:

I want 70!

 

Image


Oregon scored the most points ever against USC in 2012, when we scored 62. ASU and UCLA have since matched that point total. 
 

That record is in serious danger on Saturday. 

Edited by OregonDucks
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Bucky runs for 600 plus yards and doubles his rushing TDs. Bo gets his 4 TDs playing wide receiver,  punt returner and CB just to round out his TD resume (Strikes the “the pose” on a pick six). 

Hey, it could happen.

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I love the enthusiasm, excitement and anticipation on the Forum about a usc blow-out loss against the Ducks......

 

Sunday morning confidence after 2 back to back blow out wins is cause for celebration. Fun topic ro ponder.

 

However.....

 

Just because the usc fans have quit on their team doesnt mean that the players have quit on the season.

 

The Trojans have 2 games left, the Ducks and Bruins. Win those 2 and they can, depending on tie breakers, be in the PAC title game. They would hold the tie breaker over the Ducks!

 

And the Ducks would be headed to the Alamo Bowl......

 

SC controls their own destiny, as do the Ducks. They have a Heisman winning QB, NFL wide receivers and a O line that helps them put up 50.

 

I am confident that DL will have a game plan and the players ready.

 

The final score against the Bears does not reflect the points the Ducks took off the board. The O was careless and undisciplined to start this game. That has happened a few times this season.

 

SC has the offensive weapons to make the Ducks pay by scoring points.....utah and cal did not!

 

This game will be close until the entire Duck team breaks the trojans spirit.

 

This will require the Ducks to execute at the highest level for 60 minutes.

 

Nothing less than the Ducks best game in 2023 will be needed to close out the trojans title hopes.

 

Go Ducks........

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Bucky gets 200 yrds by halftime.

James gets 200 yrds by the end of the 3rd qtr.

Dowdell/ Limar combine for 200 yrds by end of game.

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On 11/5/2023 at 11:54 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:

I love the enthusiasm, excitement and anticipation on the Forum about a usc blow-out loss against the Ducks......

 

Sunday morning confidence after 2 back to back blow out wins is cause for celebration. Fun topic ro ponder.

 

However.....

 

Just because the usc fans have quit on their team doesnt mean that the players have quit on the season.

 

The Trojans have 2 games left, the Ducks and Bruins. Win those 2 and they can, depending on tie breakers, be in the PAC title game. They would hold the tie breaker over the Ducks!

 

And the Ducks would be headed to the Alamo Bowl......

 

SC controls their own destiny, as do the Ducks. They have a Heisman winning QB, NFL wide receivers and a O line that helps them put up 50.

 

I am confident that DL will have a game plan and the players ready.

 

The final score against the Bears does not reflect the points the Ducks took off the board. The O was careless and undisciplined to start this game. That has happened a few times this season.

 

SC has the offensive weapons to make the Ducks pay by scoring points.....utah and cal did not!

 

This game will be close until the entire Duck team breaks the trojans spirit.

 

This will require the Ducks to execute at the highest level for 60 minutes.

 

Nothing less than the Ducks best game in 2023 will be needed to close out the trojans title hopes.

 

Go Ducks........

USC hadn't quit in any of the other games mentioned in the original post, so if usc AND Oregon both show up, this is a blowout.

 

Yes we must not play flat expecting an easy win, but this is USC. Everyone gets up for USC.

 

My biggest concern is this is a 7:30pm game, where screwy things can happen and we've been playing day games practically all year, but we are at home which mitigates that a lot.

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On 11/5/2023 at 11:57 AM, The Kamikaze Kid said:

Bucky gets 200 yrds by halftime.

James gets 200 yrds by the end of the 3rd qtr.

Dowdell/ Limar combine for 200 yrds by end of game.

600 yards rushing. That's pretty good!  

 

How many yards passing will Bo-dacious get in the first 3 quarters?

 

How many yards passing will Ty Thompson get in the 4th?

 

It will be a good reminder for the Trojans, why they went to the B1G and why they didn't want Oregon to go to the B1G, and why they have nightmares of eventually having to play Oregon every year in the B1G.

 

Dream B1G!!!

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On 11/5/2023 at 9:38 AM, CalBear95 said:

Here is where I get nervous: the UW loss was so bad Riley has to fire Grinch and the USC D responds with an inspired performance. 
 

Their D has quit on Grinch.  
 

I hope Riley keeps him for at least one more game.  

You called that one. I just saw the press release that Riley fired him. So that will be interesting to see how the Trojans respond.

 

 

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On 11/5/2023 at 12:18 PM, Haywarduck said:

I think it could be a trap game unless Bo really steps it up. There is no indication he can't, won't and it won't be a blowout.

 

 

No offense at all intended, I'm curious as to what 'step up' you would like to see from Bo? 

 

Given that he is completing 78% of his passes, has 25 passing TDs, 5 rushing TDs, only 2 INTs on the season, and at QB rating of 180.1 --- which is higher than Penix (174.6) & Williams (175.9).

 

Plus his team leadership skills are clearly amazing. 

 
Edited by Desert Duck
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On 11/5/2023 at 11:03 AM, Charles Fischer said:

 

I want 70!

 

U$C is one of the top-10 WORST scoring defenses in the NCAA.

 

Utah, Stanford, Hawaii, and Colorado all rank better.

 

Cal’s D is the only D ranked worse than U$C’s that we will face all year. And Cal’s stats are extra bad because OBD just hung 63 on them.

 

I know DL will certainly be disappointed if we don’t lay 70+ on the Trojans.

 

My hubby, faithful Duck-in-law that he is, predicts 80+. 🤣

 

 

 

 

 

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Rationale. Dillon Johnson. 256 yards with 199 yards coming before contact!

 

There is bad, and then there is the USC so-called D.

 

But, I do think that Troy behind Caleb has a puncher's chance in every game. Including the Sun Bowl game.

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 I will always remember what KB did to Usuc at home a few years back and I would love to see Bucky top that performance.

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On 11/5/2023 at 1:33 PM, Desert Duck said:

No offense at all intended, I'm curious as to what 'step up' you would like to see from Bo? 

 

Given that he is completing 78% of his passes, has 25 passing TDs, 5 rushing TDs, only 2 INTs on the season, and at QB rating of 180.1 --- which is higher than Penix (174.6) & Williams (175.9).

 

Plus his team leadership skills are clearly amazing. 

 


Well, Bo is still overthrowing some of those deep throws by a hair. If he starts hitting those, his completion percent should increase to 80%…

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For what it’s worth here is my opinion:

 

I would like to see Oregon get an early lead and then start grinding it out.  I honestly think the Ducks can run all over this USC defense with clock killing drives that keep Caleb off the field and demoralize the Trojans defense.  
 

This strategy will likely not end with the Ducks scoring 70+, but it will be a huge statement and not take unnecessary risks.  
 

Oregon is the better team.  Punish them with physical football, don’t turn it over, and do your best to keep your guys healthy.  

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This incredible display of confidence by those submitting opinions is justifiable. This a very special team led by a young man of the highest quality, a prospective Heisman winner, accompanied by a complete roster of unselfish contributing teammates. It is also time to acknowledge that we probably have the finest coaching staff in the country. This is a very special season but it will become the norm not the exception. 

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I may have to go to a bar to watch... DISH hasn't had a FOX contract since last year.

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On 11/5/2023 at 4:27 PM, SoGaDawg said:

I honestly think the Ducks can run all over this USC defense with clock killing drives that keep Caleb off the field and demoralize the Trojans defense.  


Which means that Coach Stein will roll out the Air Raid offense this week…

 

[I kid…sort of]

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Well, the firing of Grinch is a bit of a wrinkle to my original post, putting an asterisk on it to say the least.

 

There is only one week here, so the scheme can't be changed to any substantial degree for Klein to worry about, the players can't be developed.

 

Maybe a few stupid calls during the game gets changed. Some tendencies may change. Perhaps they simplify the scheme to focus on attacking the ball.

 

My biggest concern is USC having a hope as a result of a fresh start and coming out on fire. Football is so mental.

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Face it.  Past Oregon - USC history , for the most part, doesn't translate to 70 points, even against a defense-less team like the Trojans if for no other reason than USC should be able to use up a good amount of clock themselves and maybe score 30 points.  (Maybe).  The number of possessions for Oregon should be way down as compared to CAL. Caleb Williams has my respect, even if I don't like Trojans.  He can wing the ball from any position and his receivers are awfully darned good.

 

But like I posted elsewhere I'm done with underestimating this Lanning-coached team.  Who knows what they can do if they feel they have a need to do it?  Charles wants 70?  I wouldn't put it past the Ducks to do it, not any more!

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On 11/5/2023 at 1:33 PM, Desert Duck said:

No offense at all intended, I'm curious as to what 'step up' you would like to see from Bo? 

 

Given that he is completing 78% of his passes, has 25 passing TDs, 5 rushing TDs, only 2 INTs on the season, and at QB rating of 180.1 --- which is higher than Penix (174.6) & Williams (175.9).

 

Plus his team leadership skills are clearly amazing. 

 

He is going head to head with the reigning Heisman winner. He needs to keep growing and throwing to move up the ranks of Heisman hopefuls. I would love to see the contrast to Williams, head to head be stark and convincing.

 

The one area I would like to see Bo step up is the long ball, and really torch the trojan D.

 

Agree with all you points, Bo is doing extremely well, but there will probably be a rematch with Penix and he needs win this one and that may take another step up too.

 

 

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On 11/5/2023 at 3:18 PM, Desert Duck said:
On 11/5/2023 at 10:38 AM, CalBear95 said:

Here is where I get nervous: the UW loss was so bad Riley has to fire Grinch and the USC D responds with an inspired performance. 
 

Their D has quit on Grinch.  
 

I hope Riley keeps him for at least one more game.  

You called that one. I just saw the press release that Riley fired him. So that will be interesting to see how the Trojans respond.

CalBear95 and Desert Duck,

   

    Great points! It's very possible the Defensive players will rally around those two Asst coaches who are the acting co-DCs, and USC will show up hunting for Ducks.

Our Ducks must be ready, and I doubt if any of our coaches and players will lack for motivation to play hard and smart, and then win!

 

    Still, because of the motivational aspect of LR freeing the players from Coach Grinch who I believe they did not respect and/or support, this could be a trap game; the game is probably not a trap game - probably. But, who in their right mind would ever underestimate USC, ASU, OSU and UW. Every one of these teams plays our Ducks hard; it's an honor for them to beat our Ducks!

 

    Don't fall for the Trojan propaganda that the team will just be going through the motions before they wave the white flag. No! BS! These players have just been granted a reprieve, and they are gunning for the Ducks. A victory over the Ducks would make their season! Get ready! This is going to be a tough game. As with Mr. Fishduck, I would be thrilled if our Duck warriors scored 70 points on the Trojans. Let's limit USC to 17 or less!

 

    WooHoo! This is going to be a tough game! VR, KCDuck1   Go Ducks!

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On 11/5/2023 at 6:55 PM, KCDuck1 said:

It's very possible the Defensive players will rally around those two Asst coaches who are the acting co-DCs, and USC will show up hunting for Ducks

This.  Inspired defense that plays a simpler scheme without all the silly slanting, and goes against its past tendencies making it harder to game-plan against.  Plus PAC after dark.  Plus a certain Heisman winning QB.  Makes me much more nervous now that the Grinch is gone.  I thought we might set a scoring record against USC, but now I don't know.  I'll be happy with a W.

Edited by Cacker Guy
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On 11/5/2023 at 7:44 AM, Solar said:

This game will be a blowout. A 14 point spread is the easiest money you'll get all year.

I'd sure like to have your confidence and yes, your rationale seems sound.  But this is football and football is (when you come right down to the nitty-gritty) a game of matchups.  This is why a team 'A' (blown out by team 'B' who loses badly to Team C) can still beat Team C.  You see it most clearly in the NFL but it also happens in the CFB.  Good coaches know this because they understand how matchups work and the problems they pose.

 

Yeah, it looks like O should be able to handle USC - but I'll bet you a dollar to a donut it doesn't go down easy and I would hesitate to give Oregon much over a 55% chance of winning. Maybe 60%.  Home field advantage here is a biggie.  If the Trojans are as tired as they look, traveling to Eugene isn't going to easy for them.  Advantage Oregon due to their depth, health at all positions and Autzen Stadium. And Dan Lanning.

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Grinch getting canned may give the U$C defense a temporary shot of juice and caffeine, but their fundamentals remain the same. Those are established in fall camp, along with discipline and cohesiveness. They may simplify the defense to avoid as many coverage and gap mistakes as they can, but you don't turn around a season of bad angles and tackling on a dime.

 

The biggest risk for Oregon is and always has been Williams. And for all of our vitriol and ridicule of his superficial substance, flash and La La Land crib, Riley is a very good offensive mind. They will score points and beat Oregon's coverage a few times. But Williams will make mistakes if pressured and the defense will need to be as sound as they've been against lesser QBs to force him to make them.

 

U$C put up 42 on Fusky and 32 on Utah, both good defenses. Only 20 on ND, so something clicked there that I'm sure DL and Lupoi have noted. Williams can keep $C in a close game but he has to have the ball in his hands and Oregon's running game should be able to control the clock and limit that time

 

The line opened at -14.5 Oregon. That still seems about right. A semi-close game that the Ducks win by 17 or so. Being at Autzen gives Oregon that little boost over two TDs. I'll be curious to see what the line does over the next 48 hrs as Grinch vacates his office at McKay Center. Not that it changes what will happen, but it shows if money believes the Trojenz D will get better or worse.

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 The players for usuc haven’t changed. They probably make the same mistakes they’ve been making and coming to Autzen is no picnic. The Ducks should be able to handle them but you never know. Please no more wide receiver screens for 3 yards or less. Very risky play in my opinion compared to the reward.

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On 11/6/2023 at 7:51 AM, Just Ducky said:

Please no more wide receiver screens for 3 yards or less. Very risky play in my opinion compared to the reward.

I'm with you on the 3 yard wide receiver screen play. I pucker up every time I see one coming. 

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On 11/5/2023 at 5:19 PM, Solar said:

Well, the firing of Grinch is a bit of a wrinkle to my original post, putting an asterisk on it to say the least.

 

There is only one week here, so the scheme can't be changed to any substantial degree for Klein to worry about, the players can't be developed.

 

Maybe a few stupid calls during the game gets changed. Some tendencies may change. Perhaps they simplify the scheme to focus on attacking the ball.

 

My biggest concern is USC having a hope as a result of a fresh start and coming out on fire. Football is so mental.

I thought the USC AD went mental when they decided to throw the bank at Riley and then allowed the hiring of Grinch... But, what do I know?

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SC has the offensive weapons to make the Ducks pay by scoring points.....utah and cal did not!

 

This game will be close until the entire Duck team breaks the trojans spirit.

 

This will require the Ducks to execute at the highest level for 60 minutes.

 

Nothing less than the Ducks best game in 2023 will be needed to close out the trojans title hopes.

 

 

I'm in agreement with you. Williams is probably the most dangerous scorer in the conference. He has done a lot to carry that team on his back with their weak defense. He's kept them in many games.

 

The Ducks can't afford a slow start and have to avoid the kind of drive-killing penalties I've seen lately. Take the Trojans out of contention early and don't let up.

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The line today is OREGON -14.5. Over/Under 74.5. Saturday's weather report is for Overcast conditions with a high of 55 degrees and a low of 37 degrees. 

 

ATS in 2023 - OREGON 8-1 - USC 2-8

 

ATS in the last 5 games vs USC - OREGON is 4-1 and has won 4 of the last 5 games.

 

These 2 teams have not met since the conference champ game in 2020 when OREGON replaced UW because of COVID on the UW team. Under Mari(o), the woefully prepared Ducks went on to get blown out by Iowa State in the Fiesta Bowl 17 - 34. In fairness, Iowa State was 8-3 and the Ducks were 4-2. The game was played in front of family members only. 

 

OREGON won the 2020 conference champ game 31 - 24.

 

It's hard to believe that these two have not played since 2020. This is due to Divisions and the California Scheduling Agreement that USC pushed through. Fortunately, the days of Traveler being the lead horse in the conference are coming to a close.

 

GO DUCKS! BEAT SC!

 

I loved this take from Jon Wilner regarding Dillion Johnson rushing for 256 yards in LA on Saturday.

 

"USC's defense is like a clump of interstellar dust and gas: It gives birth to stars."

 

Missississippi State transfer Johnson had never rushed for 150 yards let alone 256 yards. And 199 yards before first contact? I probably could have rushed for 50 yards. Upon further review, probably not. 

 

No wonder that The Grinch Who Stole Defense is gone.

 

 

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I continue to regard this game as USC having a punchers chance because of Riley and Williams, but that's all.

 

I fail to see how we would come out unready to play USC at home. We've played well in the 3 statement games so far-CU, UW, Utah.

 

Screwy thing happen late in the evening, but it's usually the away team that gets the short end of the stick as it pushes them further out of their comfort zone.

 

I expect this to go like most games with uneven competition where they put up a good fight early, keeping it close or leading, but by midway through the 3rd quarter the dominance of the better skilled and athletic team just takes over.

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On 11/6/2023 at 3:10 PM, woundedknees said:

I thought the USC AD went mental when they decided to throw the bank at Riley and then allowed the hiring of Grinch... But, what do I know?

Like Grinch, the AD is history.

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Wounded, I have DISH. I get Fox, FS1, and FS2.

 

Is this an issue with your provider?

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On 11/6/2023 at 12:36 PM, Jon Joseph said:

The line today is OREGON -14.5. Over/Under 74.5. 

 

ATS in 2023 - OREGON 8-1 - USC 2-8

 

ATS in the last 5 games vs USC - OREGON is 4-1 and has won 4 of the last 5 games.

People putting "their money where their mouths are" should be the "smartest people in the room", but this shows they can be pretty slow learners too.

Edited by Solar
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On 11/6/2023 at 3:44 PM, Solar said:

People putting "their money where their mouths are" should be the "smartest people in the room", but this shows they can be pretty slow learners too.

The smartest people in the room are the folks who set the lines. 

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