Bo Nix’s Picks: Can You Live With Them?

[FishDuck Article]

This is an interesting question that no one has yet posed for discussion; are you concerned about it?

 

Bo Nix's Picks: Can You Live With Them?

FISHDUCK.COM

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Right now Oregon fans are almost swooning in a classic "honeymoon" phase with new head coach Dan Lanning before any games are played. To a degree...

 

[Quackanadian]

Every HOF NFL QB has tossed some inexplicable INT throws in their career. Not that Nix is at that level yet, and maybe never will be. But, a change and another year of growth and this former 5 star deserves the benefit of the doubt. 

 

But, really, anything over last year's QB "conundrum" of choices.  

[Charles Fischer]

You are a generous soul, where I am pragmatic acknowledging that by this time, “he-is-what-he-is,”

 

Can we live with it?  Another Anthony Brown-type of under-performance would certainly be frustrating for the fan base.

[Haywarduck]

Herbert to Shough, AB was tough. Shough, AB to the next guy will be much easier. It is all in the perspective, to a degree.

 

We want scoring, and downfield passing, which we had little of the past couple years. With downfield passing you have excitement, something which has been sorely lacking. I think it is going to take both the coach and the fans to be ok with the outcome of the big play and the big pic.

 

Statistically Bo has gotten better with his pics. The thing Georgia sent last year was the kitchen sink at the guy. He had 4 sacks when the Bulldogs played him.  The challenge may to our O-line to give him time and a protected pocket. 

 

Great point to shake us up a bit in our love affair with every move Lanning's team has taken so far. The spring game was refreshing, will it stay that way?

[Log Haulin]

MC couldn't  take risk with the O. His defense ranked near the bottom of most statistical categories.  The most deadly was 3rd down conversion rates and redzone scoring.

 

I am ok with some mistakes offensively as long as the D performs at a high level. Gives the offense some confidence they can recover from a TO or two. Duck D will have a lot to say about how much risk Dilly is willing to take.

[Haywarduck]

On 6/8/2022 at 6:59 AM, Log Haulin said:

MC couldn't  take risk with the O. His defense ranked near the bottom of most statistical categories.  The most deadly was 3rd down conversion rates and redzone scoring.

 

I am ok with some mistakes offensively as long as the D performs at a high level. Gives the offense some confidence they can recover from a TO or two. Duck D will have a lot to say about how much risk Dilly is willing to take.

Hopefully we will all be saying 'Dilly Dilly' with what our coach brings, out of the pit of misery, I say! Could that become the chant after every explosion play? Now that would be some fun, not quite the 'shout' tradition, but some fan fun!

 

 

[Quackanadian]

On 6/8/2022 at 5:48 AM, Wrathis said:

In reality he's a gun-slinger and I'm hoping he's a shadow of Brett Favre. I know he doesn't have that arm strength, but it's that mentality that I'm expecting. 3-4 touchdowns and 2 awful picks but he's gonna spin it!  Now before anyone jumps on me, I'm not saying he's Brett Favre talented, just that he reminds me of a Brett Favre mentally. 

 

Since that's where I'm starting from, I expect that the only way I get disappointed is if he throws the picks without the touchdowns...maybe I'd be better off expecting a Romo???

I will NEVER forget the ULTIMATE head shaking throw.... BRETT FAVRE!!!! Minnesota Vikings marching.... around a minute left.... he just has to take a knee.... he tosses a WTH interception to New Orleans defender... NO marches and wins  NFC and goes on to win Super Bowl.

 

Brett Favre is not immune to "Bo Nix-ing"....   

[47sgs]

When Lanning took Oregon's coaching job, he had no QB he could rely on to lead his new team, so he sought out and took the best QB with experience he could find at the time.  I have no doubt he will be a significant upgrade from last year.  As Lanning didn't have time to find and develop a young QB when he took over, Nix affords him time to find and/or develop one.

 

While Nix has had a mixed career, he has a lot of talent.  It will be up to the coaches to develop an offense and plays that minimize Nix's shortcomings, namely interceptions, and I think that they will.  I'll be fine with him throwing a half dozen picks next year as long as he also throws 20 - 30 TDs.

[DazeNconfused]

Bo really hasn't thrown a ton of picks, it's more that some of his picks have been really bad decisions. The thing you have to add into the equation with Bo is the missed throws on occasion, taking bad sacks extending the play, the risk of fumbles when he scrambles to extend plays. 

 

In short Bo needs to take another step mentally to reduce the bad picks, to sometimes decide to throw the ball away instead of scrambling around trying to extend every play and risking a fumble or big sack. Bo needs to learn that it's OK to give up on a play and not take a negative play. 

 

I think Stenson Bennett and OC Todd Monken at Georgia are a BAR that Lanning has set in his mind for Dilly and Bo.

 

Monken got a passing RTG of 176 out of Stenson last year and that's 35 points higher than AB had last year. That's down to Monken getting the most out of his QB and calling plays that tailor to his QB and Skill Players being successful. 

 

Monken ran a pro style that pounded the ball 55% of the time, takes what the Defense gives. He ran stuff the QB could adjust the blocking at the line of scrimmage in the run/pass plays, along with RPO's that let the QB take some play action shot plays. 

 

Monken never asked Stenson to be Bryce Young for 60 minutes, Monken asked him to be Stenson in the best sets, play calls that set Stenson up for success. Much of that success was taking what the defense gave them. Monken also has 3 stud TE's and used them well, they almost always seem to have been in 11 personal and ran 12 also, heck I'm sure he ran a few 13 sets. 

 

I think if Dilly/Bo can produce something like Monken/Stenson did last year Lanning is going to feel really good about his chances this year. Scoring points while taking care of the football and not putting his Defense behind the eight ball with short fields. 

[Tandaian]

I'm hoping Nix is maturing because his stats show improvement every season for the most part.  His completion percentage improved every year.  His yards per pass average improved.  His number of INTs decreased his junior year.  I don't think he is going to be a top 10 QB in college, but I'm pretty sure he is not going to be as frustrating as Anthony Brown was last year.  

 

I know I'll be pulling my hair out on a bad INT, but if he only throws 3 of them for a full season, I can live with that.

 

 

CMP	ATT	CMP%	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	LNG	SACK	RTG
217	377	57.6	2,542	6.7	16	6	78	17	125
214	357	59.9	2,415	6.8	12	7	91	21	123.9
197	323	61	2,294	7.1	11	3	71	12	130

[Haywarduck]

AB was 64% throwing mostly sure things. I doubt AB would be even close to Nix's percentage throwing the passes he was asked to throw, to the receivers Auburn had, behind the O-line they had, against the competition he saw. Apples to apples Nix is a huge upgrade. 

 

AB, was told, 'don't make any mistakes,' Nix was told to make things happen against a head wind. My take is the head wind will turn into a tail wind when comparing the tasks.

 

I completely agree Nix's scrambling against the competition he saw was a liability. I look for that to change with our O-line, our receivers, and the lower competition, but the first game might be a Dilly!

[Drake]

On 6/8/2022 at 8:54 AM, cartm25 said:

Wow . . . that completion percentage is awful. I thought Anthony Brown was frustrating because of missed passes but he was at 64% last year.

 

If Nix's CMP% is in the 50's, then we'd better buckle up.

 

I like what I saw from Butterfield in the Spring Game, though we can't tell how he'll do against a real opponent.

 

Too bad Mari Cristbal couldn't blow out enough teams to get some decent experience for back-up QBs.

AB was ranked 7th in our conference in passing yards per game. With that high of a completion percentage that tells us what we already know…most of his passes were completed relatively close to the line of scrimmage.

 

I can live with a completion percentage around 60% if we are throwing the ball downfield more often. 
 

QB 1 will definitely determine how far this team can go. I remain very optimistic. 

 

 

[30Duck]

In the season that ended with the Ducks playing Auburn in the Natty, DT didn't seem to make any mistakes, same with DD in '07. Marcus probably made a couple in his time at Oregon.  It's a high bar. Nix will probably toss up a few inexplicable throws, some will work, some won't and I can live with that. Bringing our defense back on the field won't be a bad thing, unless it gets ridiculous. I'll take errors of commission over errors of omission every day. 

 

 

[Charles Fischer]

The key thing in my view concerning the percentage of completions and throwing down field is, “can he complete the long throws? Is he accurate on them?”

 

He certainly showed me in the spring game that he can be very accurate, and throw a very catchable pass, and we also had longer crossing patterns which allows more separation for the receiver, hence more screwup room built-in for the quarterback.

 

We might be OK, but I just wondered what everyone’s tolerance level was? 

[Just Ducky]

Bo will be Bo but I will take that. 

 

We we all know he will not be facing SEC defenses in the pack. 

 

Against Georgia, the best defense in the land, he had 2 picks in three games. His teams rushed for less than 50 yards in 2 of the 3. In the 3rd Bo was their leading rusher. 

 

Guess my my point is bo was playing on a team with allot of weaknesses and he was forced to carry the load while running for his life. Picks were inevitable.

 

Bo will have some bumps along the way as will the entire team. But the Ducks offer him more weapons, a coach he knows from his best year, and a defense that should give him easier opportunities than at Auburn.

 

Game 1 will be a rough one but he and his coaches know Georgia as well as anyone so if he is the competitor I think he is he will be up to the challenge.

 

As far as the number of picks goes 5 is acceptable 10 if they win every game

[Duck Fan 76]

To me the question of Bo's picks is a bit nuanced.  To answer the question for any QB's merit as a starter you have to ask which QB gives the team the best chances to win.  All of our QB's for 2022 have some potential downside but that is true of pretty much any team.  Drilling down to the question of Bo's picks as it pertains to his merits as the starter then becomes a question of diagnosing how those picks affect the teams chances of winning in balance with his other positives.  

 

The clip of the Florida game shows some bad throws for sure but that was not a good game at all for Auburn.  If you check Bo's stats here you will find that Bo finished 2021 with 3 picks on the season.  AB's stats here show 7 picks on the season.  In fact AB has higher QB rating than Bo did any of his years starting for Auburn.  Bo's game by game stats here tell a more nuanced story where you can see Bo's stats are really all over the place. 

 

One really interesting stat to bring up is the 2019 Oregon(#11) vs Auburn(#16) game where Justin threw 1 interception and Bo threw 2.  Bo however led the drives in the 4th quarter that won the game for Auburn, here is the recap.  That loss and the close one to Arizona state put a 2 loss Notre Dame in the playoffs ahead of Justin and a great Oregon football team.

 

So what should we surmise from the stats?  I don't think stats really tell the tale very well for football in general and really QB's stats have a lot of outside factors so their stats closely mirror team stats in general.  Looking back on the film I see Bo working his butt off to put Auburn in a position to win games.  I think the 2019 performance set an expectation that reality couldn't match, not just for Bo but for Auburn football. 

 

What concerns me about video highlights of Bo (I didn't watch many Auburn games) is I see a talented football player who was trying to put the team on his shoulders and get the win.  That's the kind of stuff we hear announcers talk about saying great players make great plays in big games.  It makes for great football broadcasts but I don't believe it makes for great football teams.  If you scroll back to Justin and Mariota playing at Oregon they were at their worst when they put too much on themselves and tried to force the win.  They looked amazing when they played WITH their teams and looked for the openings that fit the situations.

 

Bo scrambles for yards when the defense brings pressure.  A little of that is good but too much is a disaster and allows defenses to collapse your passing games.  You usually beat pressure with completions that force defenders back into zone.  Mariota was different but that resulted in injuries.  Bo tries to thread the ball into well defended receivers and that can result in picks or batted balls.  I see that a lot in the SEC play honestly as there are some really good defenses in the SEC.  Alabama and Georgia last year won games by not putting their QB's into very many high pressure situations and allowing their offenses to dictate terms.

 

In the end my diagnosis for Bo in 2021 was too much pressure for him to make plays happen and not enough support from the whole team (including his OC calling the game) to allow him to be comfortable in the position.

 

What do I hope happens for Bo in 2022?  I hope that the Oregon defense is able to stay healthy and dominate games in the PAC-12 and keep things competitive against Georgia and beyond.  I hope DL and KD are winning chess matches against opposing defenses and we have the right plays being called in the right situations.  I hope the receivers and running backs become weapons and are finding the seams in defenses to play in space and create yards per run and yards after the catch. 

 

I hope special teams is in the top 50 for stats and generally plays sound football.  I hope that Bo's job is read, check 1, check 2, have faith in the next play.  I hope that Bo gets confidence that when playmakers are in space TD's will follow.  In short I hope Bo has a team playing with him and his job is simplified to a couple of easy decisions and a comfortably thrown ball.  I hope that when pressure DOES come that he will have gained the confidence in his team to weigh the risks on balance and not force balls or scramble without need.

 

If my hopes pan out then 2022 will be a great season for Oregon and Ty will get another year of growth and hit the ground running in 2023.

 

[Charles Fischer]

On 6/8/2022 at 11:12 AM, Just Ducky said:

His teams rushed for less than 50 yards in 2 of the 3. In the 3rd Bo was their leading rusher. 

This is a GREAT observation that I did not know.  To pass well, you must have a running game to balance things out and keep the defense guessing.  If Oregon has a decent running game against Georgia....then we have a chance?

 

That next step is not as easy as it looks....

[Log Haulin]

The standard for Oregon QB's is high. MM, the greatest Duck QB of all time threw 14 int's his entire career at Oregon. Over 1100 pass attempts. We expect great Quarterback play, as we should. Bo throws under five next year. 

[DUCati855]

On 6/8/2022 at 11:15 AM, Duck Fan 76 said:

I hope Bo has a team playing with him and his job is simplified to a couple of easy decisions and a comfortably thrown ball.  I hope that when pressure DOES come that he will have gained the confidence in his team to weigh the risks on balance and not force balls or scramble without need.

I hope your hopes come true! If this offense can bond and play as a unit. I feel this team can be special.

[Duck Fan 76]

For Oregon to have a decent running game against Georgia we have to get some defenders out of the box.  Oregon has a very good OL but they are neutralized by Georgia's DL.  We need Georgia concerned about maintaining the edge containment and LB's forced into coverage.  That's all much easier said than done especially against Georgia's defense and coaching.

 

It's all about offensive balance and keeping defenders chasing their tales on alignments and sets.  Oregon has talent but I think the game will depend on how well the coaches diagnose and call plays under the new offense.

[DanLduck]

I for one am still not convinced that Bo wins the starting job.

His experience is the biggest advantage he has over Jay and Ty. Which admittedly, playing a Georgia defense is a pretty big deal.

 

But I think all 3 qb's have the skill to be the #1 guy. Whoever wins out the fall competition will have earned the position and should give us all at least a sense of confidence, knowing he is whom Dillingham believes will run the offense the best.

 

To me, the biggest key will be our running game. If we can establish that, then Dillingham can get those designed mismatches for Seven and our many tall wide outs and TE's.

 

[GeotechDuck]

I am not as worried about the completion percentage.  Just for reference, Joey was at 55% and Akili was at 56% for their careers at Oregon. 
 

They key is that both of those guys made huge plays and made them when it counted most.  I can live with Nix's 61% if he is a gamer and is chucking the ball downfield and creating explosion plays. 

Edited June 8, 2022 by GeotechDuck

[DanLduck]

I want to give Bo the chance for a new start. We did that for AB last year.

Problem for AB, he quickly showed us his weakness; late passes and throws behind open receivers.

 

Bo, if he starts, needs to be more timely and accurate. If so, the ugly throw will be absorbed by us the fan base. 

 

If he gives us enough positive signs, we will accept most anything. After watching AB constantly throw to his safety valve for short gains, Bo has a big window of improvement to win us all over.

Edited June 8, 2022 by DanLduck

[AnotherOD]

On 6/8/2022 at 10:03 AM, Drake said:

I can live with a completion percentage around 60% if we are throwing the ball downfield more often. 

 

 

On 6/8/2022 at 10:03 AM, Drake said:

I am not as worried about the completion percentage. Just for reference, Joey was at 55% and Akili was at 56% for their careers at Oregon

 

GeotechDuck beat me to it.

 

I guess it is a long time ago now, but Akili Smith, Joey Harrington, Kellen Clemens all completed roughly 55% to 59% of their passes in a more traditional pro-style down field pocket passing game.

 

Actually, Clemens did hit 64% his senior year, 2005, the first season in a different offense (Gary Crowton's spread).

 

If the Duck offense is going to be dropping back and attacking the intermediate and deep portions of the field more regularly, something like 58%-62% should be plenty fine.

 

As great a season as Bryce Young had in Alabama's current vertical/attacking offense, in Alabama's six closes games, he was 165-268 which was 61.5%.

 

Edited June 8, 2022 by AnotherOD

[1Ducker1]

My way of looking at this is how many picks he will throw compared to how many turnovers our D will create. Im hoping this year our D will not only create turnovers but will score as well. So a pick every once and awhile wont bother me as long as our D does its job too.

[Steven A]

Charles, he threw that pick for two reasons ...

 

1)  So you would have a column to write;

 

2)  Keep Ty and Jay in the room.

[Just Ducky]

Also keep in mind Bo was brought here for two years not one. 

 

Lot of talk all about him grooming Ty And Butters for 2023. 

 

If they can’t crack the lineup this year does anyone think that both those guys will be here for 2023.

 

Myself thinks not unless Bo is standing on the podium in New York or is heading for the pros.

[kirklandduck]

I was thinking about this the other day and one former Pac-12 QB came to mind that I feel has some legit comparison with Nix...
 

Jake Browning College Stats | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

WWW.SPORTS-REFERENCE.COM

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- Washington (QB)

 

Yup, Jake Browning.  I considered him an above-average college QB who could competently run the offense and make most throws but he had a consistent issue of panicking when under pressure, attempting ill-advised plays when being chased by the defense.  He did that at least a few times when playing Oregon.  If Nix could perform at a similar above-average level while reducing the amount of puzzling bad plays to just a handful, then Oregon had a good shot at winning the Pac12 champion and perhaps even sneak into the CFP. 

Edited June 8, 2022 by kirklandduck

[Quackerbacker]

AB couldn't process fast enough so was late with the throws and had accuracy problems throwing downfield.   Bo appears to be much more accurate and sees the field much better.  If your quarterback can process the data and has just a decent arm he can succeed in college.  He does have the tendency to just fling it once it awhile to try and make things happen, a little of that Brett Favre mentality.   If he can control that tendency he can be damn good. 

 

If not he still will be pretty decent and certainly exciting.  The other thing he does well is scramble.  He's really good at making you miss and buying time I went back and watched some of his highlights and he almost reminded a little of Johnny Manziel when he was scrambling.  He was always just a finger away from being tackled but somehow managed to escape.  Looking forward to seeing what our offensive production looks like with Bo at the helm.  Would love to make it to the CFP but just give me some exciting offensive football.  That's what duck football is supposed to be.

[Log Haulin]

On 6/8/2022 at 1:18 PM, 1Ducker1 said:

My way of looking at this is how many picks he will throw compared to how many turnovers our D will create. Im hoping this year our D will not only create turnovers but will score as well. So a pick every once and awhile wont bother me as long as our D does its job too.

Agree, turnovers will be nice. Also, how many points will the D give up after TO. If we have the stingy D we are all hoping to have, offensive mistakes mean less.  My expectation is that Dilly and his staff will get these players coached up and protect possessions. 

[shawnski]

On 6/8/2022 at 7:40 AM, Quackanadian said:

I will NEVER forget the ULTIMATE head shaking throw.... BRETT FAVRE!!!! Minnesota Vikings marching.... around a minute left.... he just has to take a knee.... he tosses a WTF interception to New Orleans defender... NO marches and wins  NFC and goes on to win Super Bowl.

 

Brett Favre is not immune to "Bo Nix-ing"....   

Why!!!!!

I had buried that soooooo deep. Down there with all the other monsters and heartbreak. I'll never forgive you 

[Duck 1972]

I believe the key to Bo's season will be our line doing a better job of pass blocking. I don't believe they we good at it last year. Can Klemm get them to a point where they will excel at both run and pass.

 

If they can I say the sky's the limit. We have never had the depth of every position group on offense that I can remember.

 

I'd like to make a little prayer. Please make it August tomorrow.

[GODUCKS15]

He's a river boat gambler.

Gotta no when to hold em and when to fold em.

[30Duck]

On 6/8/2022 at 2:07 PM, kirklandduck said:

 

Yup, Jake Browning. 

Once I got past the odorous UW connection there is a lot to be said for your comparison here. Of course, with Browning comes the wag

 

[PittDuck]

On 6/8/2022 at 11:46 AM, DanLduck said:

… I think all 3 qb's have the skill to be the #1 guy. Whoever wins out the fall competition will have earned the position and should give us all at least a sense of confidence, knowing he is whom Dillingham believes will run the offense the best.

 

I agree DanLduck, I think we have depth in the QB room like never before.  I am not too worried about a starter getting dinged up, as I feel the next 2 in line could probably start on 80% of CFB teams.

 

I also think that any inexplicable pick (not tips) should result in the thrower sitting out the next series and giving #2 or #3 a shot at moving the offense.  Might discourage throwing into double or triple coverage.

[Vandownbytheriverduck]

Don’t forget 1981 NFC championship game 49ers against the Cowboys. Joe three three picks and Everson walls dropped a fourth right before the catch. 
 

Thats a lot, and he was a pretty good QB. 
 

Bo nix has no picks to date. Clean slate. 

Edited June 9, 2022 by Vandownbytheriverduck

[Washington Waddler]

     It’s difficult to say how much Mariu’s game day interference with his OC ‘s game plan played with AB’s confidence and trust in what they’d worked on, but Nix’s focus would certainly benefit by a lack of that stressful uncertainty.

 

      

[kirklandduck]

On 6/8/2022 at 4:59 PM, 30Duck said:

Once I got past the odorous UW connection there is a lot to be said for your comparison here. Of course, with Browning comes the wag

 

Yeah I had to hold my nose as well but I limit it to just the questionable decision-making tendencies that seem to parallel the two.  If Dillingham can get Nix to reduce his mistakes and think a little more clearly, he'll do well running the offense.