Oregon’s Best Long-Term Option

[OregonDucks]

What is Oregon's best option to compete for college football national championships over the long-term, and why?

Edited July 3, 2022 by OregonDucks

[The Kamikaze Kid]

In my opinion:

Pac 10= little league

Big/Pac= minor league

BIG 10= major league

Independent= League of their own?

 

[ICamel]

If you want to be a "big boy", you've got to play with them.

 

Yes, there are exceptions, but there is a reason they are called that.

 

B1G or SEC!

[CalBear95]

For those looking to go independent, who do you schedule?  I think you at best have to latch onto a conference like ND does with the ACC

 

And ND has a deal w/NBC because ND has a strong national brand and a huge east coast following. 
 

Oregon doesn’t have that kind of value. 
 

To me, the independent route is program death

[Haywarduck]

I would be intrigued to see Oregon go it alone. If the very smart people associated with Oregon can put something together where Oregon builds their brand, and brings in bank then that would be the shrewdest move. Also one seldom does well when you are reacting, and panicking.                            Let's let the dust settle on this one a bit before we run off all half cocked. We are in about the 3rd inning of this whole new era of college football. The spoiled children and ucla just stole second and are standing on second base thinking they are all that and a bad of chips. They might be stuck on second for a while. 

[OregonDucks]

At first, I thought that joining the B1G (or SEC) was a must but after reading more posts on OBD and other forums, I’m not sure that that is the way to go if Oregon’s long-term goal is to win a national championship in football. 

 

As Duck 1972 pointed out, top teams who have joined the Big-10, SEC, Pac-12 and other conferences have not had much success (e.g., Nebraska, Colorado, Texas A&M, Penn State).  USC has not been good since Pete Carroll left.  They get more money by joining the B1G but traded Oregon for Ohio State.  Does anyone think that USC’s road to the playoffs got easier?

 

My new ranking for Oregon would be:

 

1      Try to form a 3^rd super conference with the top programs of the ACC, Big-12 and Pac-10.  Some combination of Clemson, Florida State, Miami, NC, Duke, VT, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Oregon, Washington, Cal, Stanford, Arizona, etc.  We could approach the ACC's existing TV partner to see if they would work with us.

 

2    Create a real alliance/merger with the ACC.  We could keep the existing Pac-10 intact and look to add a few teams. The winner of the ACC could play the winner of the Pac for the championship of the combined league.  This game could rival the B1G or SEC's championship game (e.g., Clemson vs. Oregon) and position the winner for an automatic bid into the college football playoffs.

 

3    Join the B1G.  If you believe that super conferences are inevitable this option would be on top of the list, assuming you cannot make #1 happen.  However, the existing playoff system would need to change. For example, the winner of the B1G play the winner of the SEC for the national championship.

 

4    Look to expand the Pac-10 and/or look to merge with the Big-12.  This and the ACC option above would likely be temporary options until the B1G and SEC are ready to expand to 20+ teams.

 

5   Go independent.  I think that this will be harder going forward with the super conferences, as the top teams will not want to schedule an Oregon in addition to their grueling conference schedule. 

Edited July 3, 2022 by OregonDucks
expansion/typo

[Jemangi]

This is a reasonable synopsis.  Fortunately it is out of our hands as mere fans lol.  I will trust Mullens to do what he thinks best with whatever support Phil Knight and associate are willing to support.  Go Ducks.  I will come regardless.

[David Marsh]

Independent is not an option. I know Oregon has a large fan base and it eould be possible to do... But the quality of games from year to year would vary. 

 

Oregon would have to schedule every single game independently... It's already difficult to schedule good games and those games are scheduled years and years in advance. 

 

If Oregon goes independent tomorrow they will be scheduling no name opponents because that is all they'll be able to schedule. That won't draw eyeballs and it would hurt. 

 

If Oregon wanted to go independent they needed to do some twenty years ago to have a good schedule next year. 

 

Notre Dame has been independent for so long that they are able to schedule good teams but even they have needed to be partial football members of the ACC to ensure a good schedule. 

 

BYU has given up their independence for the big-12. Their schedule has been up and down over the years but I don't think BYU is making any new years six games by being independent... At least not on any regular basis which is what they'd want. 

 

It's those NY6 big money games that are hard to make if you're independent. A lot of those games have guaranteed spots for conference champions or runners up (if playoff is involved). 

 

So no to Oregon going it alone. 

[LilyDog]

While I hope that a prospective merger with the ACC is not even being considered, how great would it be to face Coach "Let's not create a narrative." 

[Jemangi]

As much as I wish we could go independent, I agree with David Marsh comments above.

[Nevada Dawg]

On 7/3/2022 at 11:41 AM, OregonDucks said:

ry to form a 3^rd super conference with the top programs of the ACC, Big-12 and Pac-10.  Some combination of Clemson, Florida State, Miami, NC, Duke, VT, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Oregon, Washington, Cal, Stanford, Arizona, etc.  We could approach the ACC's existing TV partner to see if they would work with us.

 

This was my first choice as well. No doubt that a 14-16 team league with highly attractive options in all major sports could be formed and the money aspects of the aggregation could be  substantial with inclusion of some east coast teams. 

 

This would prevent having  to play in what is, in my opinion, the most boring league with respect to football  in the country. Ohio State looks  like a modern team  but the  rest  largely do not.

 

Feel free to disagree, but I believe that the  B1G is the most overrated conference in both football and basketball. Clark Kellogg, whom I generally like a BB analyst, tried  to justify inclusion of 9 B1G teams to the NCAA tournament on the basis of excellent competitive balance in the conference. How many of those teams were left after the first day of the sweet 16 round? If  memory serves me it was none. So competitive mediocracy.

 

And you may be surprised when the last time  was that a B1G team raised the trophy in the men's basketball tournament. Look it up; I'll bet you'll  be surprised.

 

So I may be wrong, but I believe that a "best of" the  ACC, Pac-12, and Big-12 options could be a real winner.

 

 

 

 

[EzDucksIt]

Oregon needs to be with the Power Teams to keep relevant in the National discussion. Think how hard it is for a team in a lesser conference to break the magic bubble.  Scott Frost's team, UCF went 13-0 in 2017 finished ranked 6th in nation after beating Auburn in the Peach Bowl.  Oregon can not sit on its hands letting others control it's destiny.  That is not Oregon.

[curtisd316]

Obviously the best option is if the Big 10 offers Oregon a spot but if they don't the 2nd best option is the Big 12

[Nautique Duck]

Everyone keeps talking about an ACC merger. That is basically not an option. ACC teams cannot leave. The ACC could add teams but it is extremely prohibitive or nearly impossible for any of them to leave and join another conference. So it is Big12/pac 12 merger or weak pac 10+MWC if that merger falls through.
 

Just have to hope our groveling with the B1G works or we are stuck looking like a deflated balloon. Pretty big downer when I was feeling so optimistic about our future with DL. I don’t doubt for a minute that USC looked at this as an opportunity to get the upper hand on us because we have been punishing them lately and I don’t think they will want the B1G to add us too.

 

B1G would have to be okay with dividing the profits up a bit more, too, so it would have to be for logical reasons (geography, tradition, balance) not for financial reasons. Hard to count on that based on how the first move unfolded. 

[OregonDucks]

On 7/3/2022 at 9:45 PM, Nautique Duck said:

Everyone keeps talking about an ACC merger. That is basically not an option. ACC teams cannot leave. The ACC could add teams but it is extremely prohibitive or nearly impossible for any of them to leave and join another conference. 

I believe that there are 2 options with the ACC (which I believe has better programs than the Big 12):

 

1) Form a true partnership or merge with the conference.  The winner of the East division could play the winner of the West division for the championship, and hopefully a spot in the playoffs. 
 

2)  Poach the best teams from the ACC, Big 12 and PAC to form a new conference. This would be harder but not impossible. It would likely require working with the ACC’s current TV partner (ESPN). 

[Nautique Duck]

On 7/3/2022 at 10:21 PM, OregonDucks said:

I believe that there are 2 options with the ACC (which I believe has better programs than the Big 12):

 

1) Form a true partnership or merge with the conference.  The winner of the East division could play the winner of the West division for the championship, and hopefully a spot in the playoffs. 
 

2)  Poach the best teams from the ACC, Big 12 and PAC to form a new conference. This would be harder but not impossible. It would likely require working with the ACC’s current TV partner (ESPN). 

You can’t take teams from the ACC on a practical level. That’s my point. They each have a $50m buyout. Who is going to shell out $50m per team to try and make more money.
 

That’s a losing proposition if you aren’t the B1G or SEC, and even then, they would REALLY want to have Clemson in their league. The ACC has to implode before they can leave on a free market. 

[DUCKED]

I’m thinking B1G is the way to go……but only if Oregon is voted a full share of the media windfall, which is estimated at $1 billion. Taking that position, however, just might prevent the Ducks from getting an invite.

 

The Pac-12-Big 12 merger would be the second option.

[Just Ducky]

 I guess there is only one thing that matters if winning a national championship is their goal. 

 

 Go undefeated. 

 

 Doesn’t matter where they end up going, staying undefeated will be a monumental task, especially when traveling east of the Mississippi for a large portion of their games. 

 

 When was the last time anyone went undefeated in the lowly pack. Ask Wisconsin Or Iowa how hard it has been to make the playoffs with some very good teams.

 

 My point is if Cinci can do it with a weak schedule it can be done but expecting the Ducks to do it in a super league is a big ask.

 

 Once you go down the path that I see us recklessly headed down is risky business and not sustainable but for a select group who is going to be in the big games anyway.

 

 I know many are saying money is the only issue here but I am not one of those.

[OhioDuck]

On 7/4/2022 at 2:35 AM, Nautique Duck said:

You can’t take teams from the ACC on a practical level. That’s my point. They each have a $50m buyout. Who is going to shell out $50m per team to try and make more money.
 

That’s a losing proposition if you aren’t the B1G or SEC, and even then, they would REALLY want to have Clemson in their league. The ACC has to implode before they can leave on a free market. 

If there is a TV contract anywhere near what is happening with the B1G and SEC, that $50m buy out would be paid off in a year or two.

 

The question is if there is a big enough pay off on the other side. A conference made up of top ACC and PAC, plus a few others might be attractive for a big TV contract.

 

You start by seeing which networks might be interested and what they may be willing to pay.

 

Plus bring in the best of the ACC basketball programs too and you may have the best basketball conference.

[OhioDuck]

For me the phrasing of this question is important. "Long Term" is important. Is any of this totally money driven, TV contract driven, re-alignment really good for college athletics in the long run?

 

I think rather than joining them, we need to think about beating them. All of this is driven by the B1G and SEC trying to monopolize the college football product.

 

How do you fight a monopoly? Competition! Build a conference to compete with them!

[Kurt Rambis]

The only thing that scares me about being in a weaker conference is not being able to keep up with the Alabamas and Ohio States financially.  The Pac 12 has been perceived as a weaker conference for some time, and if any Pac 12 team had managed to go undefeated, they would have been in the playoffs without question.  The ACC isn't exactly a juggernaut conference, and look how often Clemson has been there.

 

Heck, look at Cincinnati.  

 

This will be even more true if the playoffs expand to 8 or 12 teams; even weaker conferences will get invites, just like we've seen teams like BYU and Boise State make noise on the national stage historically.  

 

It's all about the final record.  Going undefeated in the Big 10 or SEC is extremely difficult, and will be even more so if they start to get rid of teams like Maryland and Kentucky in favor of better programs like USC or Oregon.  

 

Of course, I'm saying all of this knowing what CFB has been over the past 20 years.  Only God knows what it will be like over the coming decade, and so far, He has stayed pretty quiet on the issue.

 

 

 

[GeotechDuck]

On 7/6/2022 at 8:17 AM, OhioDuck said:

If there is a TV contract anywhere near what is happening with the B1G and SEC, that $50m buy out would be paid off in a year or two.

 

The question is if there is a big enough pay off on the other side. A conference made up of top ACC and PAC, plus a few others might be attractive for a big TV contract.

 

You start by seeing which networks might be interested and what they may be willing to pay.

 

Plus bring in the best of the ACC basketball programs too and you may have the best basketball conference.

Since ESPN is the network for both conferences (ACC and PAC), is there an option to merge the conferences without the buyout?  As part of that, you would need a unanimous vote from the existing ACC schools to dissolve the GOR, which is probably a long shot.  Then ESPN, who needs to counter the BIG right now and desperately needs the content, may be forced to come to the table with a better media deal for what would be a the third power conference.  Especially if the ACC and PAC were committed to that plan.       

 

For the record, I think I have a better chance of winning the lotto, but it is one possibility.  

[Quackerbacker]

Some many options!   I'm still of the mind that going to the Big 10 is the best choice but being part of the Big 12 maybe reality.   I don't think forming some kind of alliance with the ACC is doable in the long term, because the SEC is going to come calling for Miami and Florida State, and maybe others.  A $50 million buyout is a big number but not when you are earning $80-$100 million a year by joining the SEC.   

 

My concern is if we end up in some kind of restructured Big-12 / PAC -12, what is our payout for the foreseeable future maybe $50 million per year max?   We can absorb the payout differential in the short term but when teams in the Big 10 and SEC are getting an additional $500 million over 10 years that's hard to compete with. 

 

Don't know if the short sighted Oregon legislature will let Oregon go to the Big-10.  Another hurdle to get over.

 

This is making my brain hurt!

[Charles Fischer]

On 7/6/2022 at 8:41 AM, Kurt Rambis said:

The only thing that scares me about being in a weaker conference is not being able to keep up with the Alabamas and Ohio States financially. 

The only solution I see to that is pouring the same amount of money into football that the B1G/SEC teams do, but that means we have to cut sports.  We would go from 19 sports...way down.  It would be the only way to stay competitive in football I believe, and boy will our travel costs go up!

[1Funduck]

The ACC is a viable option. ESPN would rework the deal if it all of a sudden had a super conference at the table. Also, if ESPN was the instigator

[idontrollonshobbas]

If we do the ACC quasi-merger, and as Charles points out, cut non-revenue sports to max football investments.  We could perhaps create a competitive recruiting advantage by having Tinker Hatfield trick out an old 747 for team transpo.

 

Air Duck One could include treatment facilities, lay flat seats, an upstairs lounge for boosters!  Gotta make lemonade out of lemons here guys.

[OST8]

On 7/3/2022 at 1:41 PM, OregonDucks said:

At first, I thought that joining the B1G (or SEC) was a must but after reading more posts on OBD and other forums, I’m not sure that that is the way to go if Oregon’s long-term goal is to win a national championship in football. 

 

As Duck 1972 pointed out, top teams who have joined the Big-10, SEC, Pac-12 and other conferences have not had much success (e.g., Nebraska, Colorado, Texas A&M, Penn State).  USC has not been good since Pete Carroll left.  They get more money by joining the B1G but traded Oregon for Ohio State.  Does anyone think that USC’s road to the playoffs got easier?

 

My new ranking for Oregon would be:

 

1      Try to form a 3^rd super conference with the top programs of the ACC, Big-12 and Pac-10.  Some combination of Clemson, Florida State, Miami, NC, Duke, VT, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Oregon, Washington, Cal, Stanford, Arizona, etc.  We could approach the ACC's existing TV partner to see if they would work with us.

 

2    Create a real alliance/merger with the ACC.  We could keep the existing Pac-10 intact and look to add a few teams. The winner of the ACC could play the winner of the Pac for the championship of the combined league.  This game could rival the B1G or SEC's championship game (e.g., Clemson vs. Oregon) and position the winner for an automatic bid into the college football playoffs.

 

3    Join the B1G.  If you believe that super conferences are inevitable this option would be on top of the list, assuming you cannot make #1 happen.  However, the existing playoff system would need to change. For example, the winner of the B1G play the winner of the SEC for the national championship.

 

4    Look to expand the Pac-10 and/or look to merge with the Big-12.  This and the ACC option above would likely be temporary options until the B1G and SEC are ready to expand to 20+ teams.

 

5   Go independent.  I think that this will be harder going forward with the super conferences, as the top teams will not want to schedule an Oregon in addition to their grueling conference schedule. 

 

THIS.  I feel the same way about Oklahoma State's situation.  If a PAC/Big12/ACC combo could happen to form a 3rd mega-conference I really feel that would be the best route.  And truthfully, in terms of on the field competition, that conference would be very very good.  But if you continue to add all of the top programs to two different conferences that only two teams can come out at the top you're just...limiting yourself in a way.

 

I don't know if the 3rd super conference would pull a TV deal as big as the BIG or SEC's contract but I actually do think it would be fairly close.

[OST8]

I think if something happens with the ACC this year or next then you are correct and Clemson/FSU/Miami/UNC would immediately go to the powerhouse conferences.  I actually think if the ACC rides out it's current GOR and those schools get to see what happens to the Trojans, Sooners, Longhorns, Bruins (or Auburn, Penn St, etc) when they are thrown into the absolute gauntlet that those conferences will be, I really think they will be much more inclined to form a 3rd power conference.

[Krsmqn]

My fat thumb hit "independent" when I meant "stay in the pac". 

 

Perhaps that can be fixed?

 

I'm sentimental about the Ducks staying in the pac and making it work. That may not be the best direction for the program, but that's why I'm not in charge of those decisions. I lead with my heart. 

 

I'm confident that the best decision will be made by the powers that be. So long as we win when we play against Washington, Oregon State, USC, .... I'll be content.

[1Ducker1]

I will miss playing Beavis the Cougs, Stanford, Cal, -heck we havent even had a good win over Boise St yet.

[CalBear95]

On 7/6/2022 at 8:41 AM, GeotechDuck said:

Since ESPN is the network for both conferences (ACC and PAC), is there an option to merge the conferences without the buyout?  As part of that, you would need a unanimous vote from the existing ACC schools to dissolve the GOR, which is probably a long shot.  Then ESPN, who needs to counter the BIG right now and desperately needs the content, may be forced to come to the table with a better media deal for what would be a the third power conference.  Especially if the ACC and PAC were committed to that plan.       

 

For the record, I think I have a better chance of winning the lotto, but it is one possibility.  

I would think there are the votes in the ACC to dissolve their current GOR contract.  It is killing them because it is (a) egregiously undervalued and (b) will continue to be ever increasingly so for another 12 years.  As such, there is definite value in eliminating that millstone around each team’s neck.

 

FWIW,  I would imagine a new GOR to ESPN would run 6-7 years making it highly unlikely if not impossible for a raid by the SEC for the next 4-5 years.  If that assumption is correct, the high value ACC brands will need to weigh the cost and probability of success in getting out of their current deal via litigation vs the relative certainty of getting into the B1G or SEC in 6-7.  
 

I have no idea what the calculus is on that and I expect some high paid actuaries and/or IBs are on the ACC payroll at present to help figure that out.

Edited July 6, 2022 by CalBear95

[Nevada Dawg]

I haven't followed very closely, but saw something suggesting that Phil Knight's preference is that the Ducks end up in the SEC. Anybody know what gives  here?  I have subsequently seen  on SEC blogs that Oregon to the SEC is real possibility. I would love to welcome the Ducks but have trouble seeing that as  the best course for the team solely due to travel logistics. 

 

I do believe that were the  Ducks suddenly immersed into the SEC they could hold their own in  most  major sports. But that seems like a radical move to me. Anyone else hearing any smoke of this kind? Just curious.