Win Out and a Playoff Spot is Likely There for the Ducks

[RichardDuck]

Today's analyses around the country generally place us at No. 12, with Utah and USC ahead of us. Beat them both and we're up to No. 9 , with plenty of other opportunities to advance week by week as more unbeaten teams fall. 

Edited October 2, 2022 by RichardDuck

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

Even if they win out,  the Ducks will be outranked by all other one-loss conference champions as well as the team that loses the SEC Championship game (if that’s their only loss). I would say there is little chance Oregon goes to the playoffs as the PAC 12 champion. There would have to be a lot of two-loss conference champions.
 

Playoff selection is still a beauty contest and Oregon has a big ol’ zit right in the middle of their forehead. 49-3 is a pretty big stain on their resume.

Edited October 2, 2022 by DrJacksPlaidPants

[RichardDuck]

And yet we are now second only to Utah among teams with with one loss. Some of those unbeatens ahead of us are NOT going to stay ahead of us with one loss.

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

On 10/2/2022 at 2:17 PM, RichardDuck said:

And yet we are now second only to Utah among teams with with one loss. Some of those unbeatens ahead of us are NOT going to stay ahead of us with one loss.

The AP and coaches polls will be wildly different than the playoff rankings. If the playoff poll came out today I would bet that the Ducks would be somewhere between 15-20. They would definitely be behind Wake, Miss State and Kentucky. I would also bet that UCLA and TCU would be a lot higher ranked after their big wins this weekend.

[GODUCKS15]

 PLAYOFFS?! Don’t talk about—playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs!?! 

 

Way too early for me. Unbeaten in P12 play after the Colorado game then maybe. Still thinks the Ducks will be outside the top 7- 8 at that point. 

[kirklandduck]

On 10/2/2022 at 11:09 AM, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

Even if they win out,  the Ducks will be outranked by all other one-loss conference champions as well as the team that loses the SEC Championship game (if that’s their only loss). I would say there is little chance Oregon goes to the playoffs as the PAC 12 champion. There would have to be a lot of two-loss conference champions.
 

Playoff selection is still a beauty contest and Oregon has a big ol’ zit right in the middle of their forehead. 49-3 is a pretty big stain on their resume.

I’ve seen plenty of past seasons where an early loss to a good team is generally forgotten by the end of the season. 

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

On 10/2/2022 at 3:58 PM, kirklandduck said:

I’ve seen plenty of past seasons where an early loss to a good team is generally forgotten by the end of the season. 

I’ve never seen a season where a team lost early by more than 7 TD’s and then went on to the playoffs or championship game. In fact, their lone loss by 4 TD’s to Bama was the reason why the 2020 Texas A&M team wasn’t considered for the playoff. They were beat out by a one-loss Notre Dame team who got beat by Clemson in the ACC championship game (they spent the pandemic year in the ACC). 
 

 

[SoGaDawg]

I hate to say it, but the Ducks will need some help.  At least one SEC team goes, Clemson will go if they win out (and honestly, who will beat them?), very likely a Big 10 team goes.  
 

This only leaves one spot to fight over.  I think if the Ducks win out in a fairly dominating fashion, there is a decent chance.  To increase their odds they will need for there to be only 1 SEC team with 1 or less losses (preferably GA considering the first game), a two loss Big 12 champ would help also, and the main thing that could help Oregon other than itself is if somehow Clemson were to lose. 

CFB is unpredictable at best, often times completely unforeseen things happen.  It’s still early.  Who knows what things will look like in December?  If we knew that we could all be wealthy before Christmas.  The Ducks have a decent shot, just win and don’t worry.
 

IMO, some of the reasons above represent 1 of the reasons why the playoff is being expanded.  With only 4, every year a few deserving teams get left out.

 

[OhioDuck]

I think it's possible. A bad loss to the best team in the country (sorry pollsters but GA is still better than Bama) coming off a coaching change with everyone learning a new system can be overcome. 

 

Lanning had it right after the game, the only one stopping our offense right now is us. Stop the self inflicted wounds and we may be putting up 50+ on some good teams. 

 

To have a playoff chance with only 4 teams we have little room for error, even if we win. We have to win impressively.

 

If that includes an impressive win over Utah, then over a maybe unbeaten USC in the PAC championship it may be hard to make an argument that there are 4 teams more deserving. 

 

A lot of ifs, but it's possible.

[RichardDuck]

A huge boost would be winning the conference championship against undefeated USC. Yes, playing this ridiculous mind game every season does get old when all you should need to worry about is winning your league.

[Desert Duck]

On 10/2/2022 at 12:58 PM, kirklandduck said:

I’ve seen plenty of past seasons where an early loss to a good team is generally forgotten by the end of the season. 

There are losses... and then there are 49-3 humiliating beatdowns on prime time national television. 

 

I seriously doubt many people will be forgetting that one by the end of the season.

[Steven A]

This year I'd prefer a Rose Bowl W, over a playoff "appearance", the bling looks cooler in the case.

Edited October 2, 2022 by Steven A

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

On 10/2/2022 at 4:52 PM, SoGaDawg said:

I hate to say it, but the Ducks will need some help.  At least one SEC team goes, Clemson will go if they win out (and honestly, who will beat them?), very likely a Big 10 team goes.  
 

This only leaves one spot to fight over.  I think if the Ducks win out in a fairly dominating fashion, there is a decent chance.  To increase their odds they will need for there to be only 1 SEC team with 1 or less losses (preferably GA considering the first game), a two loss Big 12 champ would help also, and the main thing that could help Oregon other than itself is if somehow Clemson were to lose. 

CFB is unpredictable at best, often times completely unforeseen things happen.  It’s still early.  Who knows what things will look like in December?  If we knew that we could all be wealthy before Christmas.  The Ducks have a decent shot, just win and don’t worry.
 

IMO, some of the reasons above represent 1 of the reasons why the playoff is being expanded.  With only 4, every year a few deserving teams get left out.

 

I’m thinking Clemson, a one-loss or undefeated B1G champ, and 2 SEC teams. If Bama and UGA go to the championship game undefeated then both will go to the playoff. The Big 12 and PAC 12 champs have to be undefeated to be considered. 

[kirklandduck]

On 10/2/2022 at 1:31 PM, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

I’ve never seen a season where a team lost early by more than 7 TD’s and then went on to the playoffs or championship game. In fact, their lone loss by 4 TD’s to Bama was the reason why the 2020 Texas A&M team wasn’t considered for the playoff. They were beat out by a one-loss Notre Dame team who got beat by Clemson in the ACC championship game (they spent the pandemic year in the ACC). 
 

 

The CFP committee tends to pay more attention to the situation surrounding the game than the AP or Coaches polls do.  Georgia is the defending national champions and Oregon was experiencing an entirely new coaching staff, new offensive/defensive schemes, and new starters at most skill positions.  That does carry some weight which factors into the rankings.

 

On 10/2/2022 at 2:21 PM, Desert Duck said:

There are losses... and then there are 49-3 humiliating beatdowns on prime time national television. 

 

I seriously doubt many people will be forgetting that one by the end of the season.

 

For the reason I listed above I believe the CFP will weigh it more lightly than what you or Jack are considering.  If OBD does end up running the table, they will have defeated possibly 4 or 5 ranked teams (BYU, UCLA, Washington, Utah, and USC - assuming they make the Pac12 championship game).  Even WSU could end up ranked at the lower end of the top 25, making that 6.  Even if a couple of those teams drop out of the rankings entirely, beating 3+ ranked teams is a resume highly worth considering for the CFP despite 1 loss to heavy Georgia in game 1.  

 

[VegasDuck]

Maybe so but this Defense is not playoff caliber. 

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

UGA hasn’t played well the past couple of games. It makes Oregon’s loss look much worse. If Florida finishes behind UGA, Tennessee, and Kentucky in the SEC East then Utah won’t prevent two SEC teams from going to the playoff if they win out. They would need to hope for the ACC and Big 12 to cannibalize each other.

[kirklandduck]

On 10/2/2022 at 3:02 PM, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

UGA hasn’t played well the past couple of games. It makes Oregon’s loss look much worse. If Florida finishes behind UGA, Tennessee, and Kentucky in the SEC East then Utah won’t prevent two SEC teams from going to the playoff if they win out. They would need to hope for the ACC and Big 12 to cannibalize each other.

If both Utah and USC get into the top 10 and Oregon beats them both by the end of the season, do the Ducks jump a a non-champion SEC team?

[SoGaDawg]

On 10/2/2022 at 5:37 PM, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

I’m thinking Clemson, a one-loss or undefeated B1G champ, and 2 SEC teams. If Bama and UGA go to the championship game undefeated then both will go to the playoff. The Big 12 and PAC 12 champs have to be undefeated to be considered. 

Yeah, that makes sense.  And while I think it’s likely that Clemson easily wins out, I don’t think it’s likely that both GA and Bama win out in the RS.  
 

Clemson has certainly been deserving of making the playoff in the past, but they have also had by far the easiest path to the playoff since in began. 
 

GA and Bama have to navigate tough SEC schedules.  I believe GA has the easier schedule and is more likely to win out, but it’s certainly not a given.  IMO Bama has a very demanding schedule left to play.  The SEC west is brutal.  I do absolutely agree that if they both win out and meet undefeated in the SECCG, they both make the playoff. It will be almost impossible to argue that either of them isn’t deserving.  

Edited October 2, 2022 by SoGaDawg

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

On 10/2/2022 at 6:05 PM, kirklandduck said:

If both Utah and USC get into the top 10 and Oregon beats them both by the end of the season, do the Ducks jump a a non-champion SEC team?

It depends on how badly they lost to UGA. One thing you have to watch out for is the one-loss team that didn’t make it to the SEC championship game. Bama has won two national championships without even playing in the SECCG. 

[HappyToBeADuck]

While it's fun to ponder and kick a CFP spot around the ODB Forum,,well it's a tall task at best. Not that a 12-1 Duck team wouldnt be worth consideration. Running the table in the PAC with a win over an undefeated top 5 USC in the PAC title game would put the Ducks deep in the conversation. It truly is fun to dream.

 

But the deck is stacked against the Ducks. IMHO, Bama, The Dawgs, tOSU and Clemson have to play their way out of the top 4. It could happen I guess.

 

In the next 3 weeks much will be decided in the PAC. usc, ucla, Utah and WSU have big games against each other. Including ucla playing the Ducks.

 

As one other Forum member mentioned, the only game that matters is the next one.  OBD's need to clean up a few things and beat Arizona. The desert hadn't been good to the Ducks.

 

The Duck offense is rolling pretty good (minus penalties, personal fouls and showboatong.) But the O did overcome all that unlike during the MC era.

 

The D is improving. The D needs to play 60 minutes like they played the first 30 minutes of the Furd game. If you can watch a replay of that first half you can see the D's improvement. 

 

GO DUCKS.........

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

On 10/2/2022 at 6:09 PM, SoGaDawg said:

Yeah, that makes sense.  And while I think it’s likely that Clemson easily wins out, I don’t think it’s likely that both GA and Bama win out in the RS.  
 

Clemson has certainly been deserving of making the playoff in the past, but they have also had by far the easiest path to the playoff since in began. 
 

GA and Bama have to navigate tough SEC schedules.  I believe GA has the easier schedule and is more likely to win out, but it’s certainly not a given.  IMO Bama has a very demanding schedule left to play.  The SEC west is brutal.  I do absolutely agree that if they both win out and meet undefeated in the SECCG, they both make the playoff. It will be almost impossible to argue that either of them isn’t deserving.  

Yeah, Bama has to travel to Knoxville this year. They could lose, but still win the West. If they lose to UGA in the SECCG and Tennessee wins out then Tennessee would be deserving of the playoff if their only loss was a close one to UGA. 

[Triphibius]

Perhaps my eyesight was affected by the late hour in the eastern time zone, but the team I saw yesterday on television did not look like a playoff caliber team. 

However, I expect their concentration and execution will improve when facing more challenging opponents, such as UCLA. 

[SoGaDawg]

On 10/2/2022 at 6:52 PM, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

Yeah, Bama has to travel to Knoxville this year. They could lose, but still win the West. If they lose to UGA in the SECCG and Tennessee wins out then Tennessee would be deserving of the playoff if their only loss was a close one to UGA. 

They also have to travel to Baton Rouge and Oxford.  Either could prove tough road games.  
 

Aside from that, Bama has games against aTm and Miss. St. and their annual rivalry game with Auburn.  Auburn has won this game many times over the years when they shouldn’t.  

[EzDucksIt]

On 10/2/2022 at 2:11 PM, RichardDuck said:

A huge boost would be winning the conference championship against undefeated USC. Yes, playing this ridiculous mind game every season does get old when all you should need to worry about is winning your league.

Not going to happen.  WSU at USC this weekend, Cougs get the road win.  This team is on HAMMER TIME.  They feel like they let one get away with Oregon.  I would not want to be Lincoln Riley or USC.  Cougs are hungry, old time Oregon Hungry.  Losses at this time of the year kill your momentum and your chances.  First, you have to start praying for Coaching meltdowns, teams depth exposed due to injuries.  Then the dreaded Coaching Carousel begins anew.

[noDucknewby]

Admittedly this one of my pet peeves, but talk of winning out in the first half of the season is a bit premature.  In addition, since no P12 team has ever went undefeated in conference play it seems pretty unlikely this year especially given the strength (or at least parity) of the conference.

 

One game at a time, we get down to our November stretch without another loss and then maybe we can talk about running the table.  Just my humble opinion.

[GeotechDuck]

IMO I don’t see any team making it through conference play undefeated.  
 

USC is a paper tiger.  They are living off turnovers and their OL is a sieve.  When they meet upper teams in the conference with a decent defense and that take care of the ball, they will drop games. 
 

Oregon has issues in the secondary, with penalties, and with redzone execution.  Those will catch up to them at least one time.  
 

Utah has a talent gap.  Improved coaching at USC, UW, and Oregon will make it more difficult for them to win against the teams at the top of the conference stacked with talent.
 

UCLA is looking good and DTR is playing extremely well. They are well rounded on offense and defense, while not elite.  However, their schedule is a nightmare and I don’t see how they run the table.  They still have Cal who is playing better, Oregon, USC, and Utah plus the championship game. 

[Annie]

I'm a take-it-one-game-at-a-time type of fan. Go Ducks, beat arizona!

[lownslowav8r]

IMHO, Oregon is to undisciplined and too weak against the pass to make it through. Bo Nix is still throwing deep into double teams. We’ll see but the chances are low. 

[Haywarduck]

I suppose the real question is could Oregon win a playoff game. There is no reason for Oregon to go to the playoff if they are going to pull a dawg trick and lose.

 

If Oregon keeps building and wins out then we would have a fighting chance to win a playoff game. That means everyone stays healthy, and the coaching staff continues to call great games. We would also need the ball to start bouncing our way on occasion, especially in a playoff game. 

 

So it comes down to taking care of what is in front of us, and not worrying about what others do. I would be extremely happy with a Rose Bowl win and looking like we should have been in the playoff. The last thing I want is to make it to the playoff and get whacked. 

 

I could see us playing Michigan or PSU in the Rose Bowl and that would be a great first bowl game for Lanning.

 

Our first game wasn't the best way to start Lanning career. I doubt a playoff game would be the best way to end his first year either.  I would love to see Oregon finish strong, and whatever the outcome bowl wise would be fine.

[spartan2785]

I'm sorry but no team that loses a game 49-3 should get into the playoffs unless a lot of things happen, and they look absolutely dominate the rest of the way.  Oregon would need to beat USC, Utah, UCLA, and UW by significant figures for them to begin to creep into the conversation for me.  

 

I get the argument you could make about how it was the coaching staff's first game, that it was on the road against the defending champs, but you just can't be dominated like that and deserve to go to the playofs imo.

 

Winning the Pac-12 and going to the Rose Bowl is great goal for this team, if things happen and we find ourselves in the conversation, then great, but I wouldn't really think about it until we get into deep November.

[Goutes18]

Unless there is chaos in the B1G and/or SEC, I don’t think a 12-1 Oregon or Utah gets into the CFP - no way either beats out a 1 loss SEC team or B1G champion.  USC could get in if they run the table, but I just can’t see that happening - and might quit watching college football forever if they do.

 

I agree that it will likely be the same faces we have seen most years in the CFP and Clemson will get embarrassed in the semis.

[RichardDuck]

The only "chaos" required is a first loss for Clemson and a second loss for Ga/Ala. We also need everyone in Big-12 to lose at least a game but that is more likely than not. When I broached the question, it was based on the supposition that the Ducks win out. Now that might require some chaos, but if it happens, I still think they'd probably get in the CFP. 

Edited October 5, 2022 by RichardDuck

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

On 10/5/2022 at 1:36 PM, RichardDuck said:

The only "chaos" required is a first loss for Clemson and a second loss for Ga/Ala. We also need everyone in Big-12 to lose at least a game but that is more likely than not. When I broached the question, it was based on the supposition that the Ducks win out. Now that might require some chaos, but if it happens, I still think they'd probably get in the CFP. 

A one-loss Clemson team will still be ahead of the Ducks. 

[florida duck]

Oregons best chance is to win out, and have Georgia winning out big also.     The championship committee might look forward to a Georgia , Oregon rematch.  Again,   big assumption both win out.

[Mic]

On 10/2/2022 at 11:09 AM, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

Even if they win out,  the Ducks will be outranked by all other one-loss conference champions as well as the team that loses the SEC Championship game (if that’s their only loss). I would say there is little chance Oregon goes to the playoffs as the PAC 12 champion. There would have to be a lot of two-loss conference champions.
 

Playoff selection is still a beauty contest and Oregon has a big ol’ zit right in the middle of their forehead. 49-3 is a pretty big stain on their resume.

I doubt Oregon will win out (tho I sure wish they could) but it would make a very compelling argument to include them IF they do because it was the very first game for Lanning and his entire crew, on the road, to the reigning Nat. Champs.  I'd suspect a lot of people would be curious to see if Oregon was that good (talent-wise) all along but got jobbed by their own coaching in-experience.  But O's chances?  1-in-5. 

[EOFan]

Here is my two cents!

 

I'm focused on the Coaching Staff and the Veteran players getting the team to realize that they have the opportunity to be a Top 4 team if they change their game day and probably practice days approach. You play on game day the way you practice. It's not just a saying, it's a fact. 

 

Everything thing that has been mentioned about the current day players is probably true, but someone needs to get the players attention.

 

Simply put, players needs to be reminded that you win and lose as a group, no one wins or loses a game by themselves. 

 

I would love to see all of the celebration and chest thumping go away. Watching us make a great play and then be totally out of position the next play because we spent our time celebrating will be what keeps this team from being in the final 4.

 

It is time to have a heart to heart with the whole team. You want to make it to the NFL, play as a team and make your priority being ready to play each and every play. 

 

Those who evaluate talent are not impressed by chest thumping and individual glory. 

 

I've mixed up this thread with others threads that have been discussed, but I see a Duck team that could be great, but we won't see it happen unless the group as a whole takes a hard right turn and decides team first and team only! 

 

If that happens the sky is literally the only limit! 

 

We can catch that lightning in the bottle, let's see it start Saturday in Tucson! 

 

Thanks for indulging me in some of my thoughts. 

 

Go Ducks!!!!

[CountryProf]

To be honest, I don't want the Ducks to be in the playoffs this year. We're not good enough yet to beat teams like Alabama or Georgia. I'd rather we go to the Pac-12 championship and then continue to build from there. When we eventually go to the playoffs, I want us to be able to win, rather than seemingly provide more evidence that Oregon is overrated and the Pac-12 is soft. 

Edited October 5, 2022 by CountryProf

[Mic]

On 10/4/2022 at 8:03 AM, lownslowav8r said:

IMHO, Oregon is to undisciplined and too weak against the pass to make it through. Bo Nix is still throwing deep into double teams. We’ll see but the chances are low. 

You make a good point, but there's still enough of the season left to correct the things that need correcting.  And enough of the season left for a lot of things, good and bad, to happen. I think an expectation of making the Playoffs in Lanning's 1st year are unrealistic, as nice as that would be.  

[Mic]

On 10/5/2022 at 12:39 PM, CountryProf said:

To be honest, I don't want the Ducks to be in the playoffs this year. We're not good enough yet to beat teams like Alabama or Georgia. I'd rather we go to the Pac-12 championship and then continue to build from there. When we eventually go to the playoffs, I want us to be able to win, rather than seemingly provide more evidence that Oregon is overrated and the Pac-12 is soft. 

This is a much more realistic goal for the Ducks.  Heck, even finishing 8-4 wouldn't be a 'bust' of a year, imo.  I'm hoping for 10-2 and even that won't be easy but quite remarkable if it happens.

[30Duck]

On 10/5/2022 at 1:36 PM, Mic said:

This is a much more realistic goal for the Ducks.  Heck, even finishing 8-4 wouldn't be a 'bust' of a year, imo.  I'm hoping for 10-2 and even that won't be easy but quite remarkable if it happens.

Well said. I think the Ducks will continue to improve and be much better than they were in Week 1. But I don't think they improve to elite which is what the teams in the championship game are. So, win the Pac-12, win the Rose Bowl, those are goals within their reach.