Can Oregon Compete for National Championship in Year Two of Dan Lanning?

[Pennsylvania Duck]

If you look at the ESPN Way-Too-Early Top 25, where Oregon ranks No. 9 going into the offseason, or take a peek at the early national championship betting lines, where the Ducks are tied for the 12th-best odds, that would be a fair assumption. However, 247Sports recently listed their 10 teams “with national championship potential” in 2023, and the Ducks were not on the list.

 

What could be the reasons?

• -- A rebuild on the offensive line after losing four starters from the 2022 season?
• -- Offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham leaving, Will Stein taking over and try to prove himself?
• -- The performance of Oregon’s defense from 2022 against all the great QBs in the conference?

Take a look at the 247Sports listing in this article. Do you think our Ducks can work their way in?

 

Oregon Football: Can Ducks compete for national championship in 2023?

DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM

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Until the Bo Nix injury in 2022, Oregon was in contention for a spot in the playoff. Can they get back into the running for a national...

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[kirklandduck]

It will depend on the performance of the defense. If it can be average (maybe top 50), Oregon has a good shot at a CFP appearance. If it remains terrible like last year then the ceiling is the Pac12 championship game.

[Charles Fischer]

Somebody in the media was blustering about Oregon having a shot at being a Top-30 defense next year with all the additions.  True, I count up to five new starters on defense from the Portal, thus extremely experienced, but that kind of jump in rankings is a stretch.

 

If Oregon improves that much, then yes...we can contend.  I believe this offense will be as good as last year or better--even with the transition.

 

Cool pic.  Gosh I love the FishDuck Photographers...

[Jon Joseph]

Compete, 'yes.' Make the last Final 4 before the playoff field expands? I doubt it. It will still be 2 losses and you are done in 2023. 

 

The competition in the Pac-12 is likely to be at an all-time high. Unlike UCLA, Oregon plays a team with a pulse out-of-conference (OOC) when the Ducks travel to Texas Tech. 

 

Michigan plays 3 donut holes OOC again this season all in Ann Arbor and top to bottom the Pac-12 is a more difficult gauntlet than is the B1G. In 2022, the Pac-12 finished with 6 teams ranked, the B1G 3. Yet the B1G sent 2 teams to the final 4. You know the SEC champ is in and is there a B12 team that will go on a run like TCU did last season? I doubt it. But Clemson with a new OC could be in the mix?

 

I see a Final 4 coming from UGA, Bama, LSU, OH ST, MI, and maybe Clemson.

 

In 2024 the Pac-10 champ will be in. Oregon will get UW at home and if it plays Utah will also likely get Utah at home. Texas Tech will play in Eugene. That's a far friendlier schedule than playing at UW, Utah and versus USC, and Oregon State at home. Stanford and CAL should be 'gimmes' but other than that it will be an every-game struggle.

 

But I love the trajectory that Lanning has the Ducks on. 

 

 

[Duck Fan 76]

On 2/5/2023 at 8:26 AM, Pennsylvania Duck said:

Do you think our Ducks can work their way in?

The short answer is it's possible but it's not going to be easy.  Breaking it down into offense, defense and special teams I don't think the 2023 Ducks can't look like the 2022 Ducks and make it to the CFB playoff this year.  The obvious counter is that we were knocking on the door in 2022 so why do we need to change and the short answer is I think the losses at the end of the season were predictable, more on that below.

 

Starting with the obvious in "very special teams" Oregon was pretty bad in stopping returns and not very good on returns themselves.  The field goal kicking was good but not exceptional.  There is significant player turnover this year so I think there is potentially more talent for kick/punt returns on both sides of the ball.  Talent isn't enough though as the special teams performance underperformed their relative talent on the team.  They need to play smarter and more disciplined to see real improvement on both sides of kick/punt returns. 

 

Defense has been picked apart all year (pun intended) and I think the consensus view that the inability to pressure the QB was the defenses achilles heel is the correct view.  Zone coverages are designed to trap a QB into making dangerous throws, throw it away or get sacked trying to make the read.  Oregon's zone was porous and I maintain that it was due to an inability to put enough pressure on the QB to force a hasty throw or an incompletion out of bounds.  The QB play in the PAC is just too good to give them the kind of time they had back there and the result was completions into zone gaps all year.  The defense was certainly better when they played man-press coverage and brought an extra rusher to get to the QB but even then the pressure struggled to get home.

 

I believe DL has overloaded the roster to force players out of comfortable starting roles and he wants the pressure of competition to create growth.  I don't think anyone outside of the QB & RB's have safe positions.  For Oregon to be a legitimate playoff team we need to have a very good pass rush and DB's to create turnovers and kill drives.  The rush defense was pretty good but schematically they keyed the rush a lot.  If Oregon's linebackers can step up then the rush defense will still be pretty good but when a team is playing behind they will look down the field and Oregon needs turnovers and stops to keep the opponent down.

 

Offense was the obvious bright spot for Oregon in 2022 until it wasn't.  We all know that Bo getting injured took something away from the offense and cost us two games at the end of the season and the playoff spot.  The media is wondering if the Ducks can have that same offense in 2023 without KD.  There is speculation that he was the secret sauce but I honestly think he was only part of it.  How many games did we see Oregon using the same plays over and over and over and defenses unable to find adjustments?  That was a KD design but not necessarily his genius with XO's.  

 

KD's offense was creating numbers advantages because Bo had to have a defensive hat on him.  Bo's reads were excellent at figuring out where the defense was going to be short and he mostly guided the play to that mismatch on the field.  That created significant rushing opportunities and eventually the downfield passes we all love.  If the defense decided to play us balanced Bo ran the ball and got the first down.  It was an absolute headache for defensive playcalling.  Unfortunately putting Bo out in the flats ended up where it was always going to end up with Bo hurt.  There is no position in football where an injury has a bigger impact than QB and Oregon had significant challenges without Bo as a legitimate runner.

 

The offensive line play was excellent and they took significant injuries all year without much dropoff.  I expect Klemm is going to have this new unit running at a very high level again and that is really saying something.  I just don't think we will get to keep Klemm after 2023.  The RB's and WR's were also phenomenal and I don't see any performance drop-off there.  Ironically the strength of the 2022 offense was our weakness and so we need to have Bo in a position to stay healthy and that means a different philosophy for the offense.

 

For Oregon to make 2023 different we have to take what worked well and fix what didn't.  Oregon needs a powerhouse offense to beat quality teams.  If the defense makes significant gains but the offense struggles we could lose a lot of games in 2023 and that is the question the media has and why we aren't necessarily being looked at for the playoff.  There are real questions about Oregon.

 

What I think we need to see for the 2023 offense is that same numbers mismatch but not sourced from Bo's legs.  We need to win the XO's and have the playmakers create defensive imbalance for Bo to read and recognize.  That put's Bo in the position to distribute the ball where it can have the maximal effect on a per play basis.  His legs will still be there but only in situations where important games are tight and he's the playmaker of last resort (like in a playoff game).  This is harder than you might think and is going to be the measure of Will Stein as the new offensive coordinator.  

 

If Oregon can meet or exceed the 2022 offensive production (and keep Bo healthy) and the defense can get reliable pressure on the QB then Oregon will be FORMIDABLE in 2023.  We need the special teams to be at least quality for Oregon to have a shot at winning a playoff game but we can get there with one loss and the PAC12 championship crown.  

 

Edited February 5, 2023 by Duck Fan 76

[Steven A]

On 2/5/2023 at 10:45 AM, Jon Joseph said:

The competition in the Pac-12 is likely to be at an all-time high.

And that is why PACannibaliztion will be at an all-time high this year.

 

Most teams, at least percentage wise in the top 25, and first conference eliminated from contention since the league can't shield the top from the top like SomE (C) league is able to do.

 

 

[Duck Fan 76]

On 2/5/2023 at 11:04 AM, Steven A said:

since the league can't shield the top from the top like SomE (C) league is able to do

I mean Georgia went through Alabama multiple times the past two years... it's true that their OOC games are complete puffs but the road to the SEC champion crown is a pretty high bar.  Your point is valid though but I think the Clemson comparison is more apt.  

[1Ducker1]

To me the question is about Defense and especially the depth on D--That's where the top teams shine. I think our O will be in the top 10.

[1Funduck]

Our offense is not the problem. It will be fine if not even better. 

 

It's the defense. Top 4 teams do not have defenses outside of the top 25. Yes, there is outliers, but it's not the norm. All the championship caliber teams have prolific offenses. You gotta slow them down and push them to create a hiccup. That takes a defense.

 

It's all about the defense in 2023 

[HappyToBeADuck]

in a conference with 3 QB's on the Heisman watch list and a few additional dark horse contenders taking the field, well the teams who field the best D may make the PAC title game.

 

With the experienced D talent that DL brought in via the portal we potentially should see a much improved D on the field in 2023. Top 30? Not sure, but Top 50 would help. 

 

In the PAC, their will be future NFL QB's on the field, in most conference games. Maybe the strongest group, from top to bottom of the PAC.. All the defensive units will have their hands full. Gonna be fun to watch and maybe painful.......

 

My concern is depth at backup QB for the Ducks. Talented teams, with depth, make the CFP. Even when i drink the fullest cup of Duck Koolaid, well i can't even create a notion that we have a CFP level talent at backup QB.

 

Road trips to play Texas Tech, Utah and washington are winnable with Bo taking the snaps. Without Bo, maybe not.

 

I agree with JJ that DL has the Ducks headed in the right direction. The PAC is loaded in 2023 with 5 top 25 teams.  All the top teams may have 2 conference losses. No CFP appearance if that is the case.

[Haywarduck]

I see some great thoughts. The offense needs to be great, without needing Bo to be the third leading rusher, and almost having 3X's the rushing TD's as the next guy. The next guy is a running back, the guy who should be leading the team. He still needs to pick up a few 1st downs, and score on some qb sneaks, but the RB room needs to finish more often. He also probably needs to tack on 1k passing yards, and ten touchdowns through the air.

 

While I agree the SEC plays some tough games, they don't play a tough schedule. I think this is where too many people are missing the point on how to win the championship. It takes a build up and a recovery to win big games. You also don't want to count on college kids to win big on the road. We don't just need to build an SEC like program, we need the SEC schedule.

 

Lastly we need depth and competition at all positions. Lanning has started us down this road. This might take a couple seasons to complete. That competition will take elite starters who know what is expected, and have the bodies to get it done. It then takes these starters to train the next guys, and for them to be ready to step up, you then have depth. We don't even have the starters yet, it is going to take time, or a miracle

[Just Ducky]

 Not likely. Our goals should be to improve our offense over last year and for our defense to be aggressive and play on their toes not their heels. If we accomplish that and get our special teams to contribute in a positive manner then the wins should come in bunches.

[duck023]

I'm cautiously optimistic, I thought last year's team was a great team that just had horrible luck. I like the direction they are going but at the same time they are better than North Carolina by 1 point.

[noDucknewby]

Possible? Of course.  Probable?  Too many questions in my book.  New OC, O-line and pretty much a complete overhaul of the defense.  And I agree, this year's teams are the strongest the P12 has been in years.

 

That said, if Nix stays healthy the offense should hum right along and the defense has no place to go but up.  I would say we have at least as good of a chance as FSU, Penn State and Texas as listed in the article.

 

 

[Nevada Dawg]

 

There are many good analyses above on why competing for a Natty in year two is very unlikely. My take is that the Ducks roster is simply not deep enough with talented players to realistically compete this coming year. But then, again, there is always the possibility of the totally unexpected like this year with TCU which I believe was a far better team than they showed in the Natty against Georgia.

 

Had the question been Can the Ducks  realistically compete for a Natty in year 4 of Lanning's tenure, I could well have a different answer for you. In my opinion, recruiting has to pick up even further and the new coaches have to do a bang-up job developing players for that to happen. 

 

Getting in the 12-team playoffs should be attainable by year 4, but several (perhaps most ) of those teams will not be realistic options for winning it all.

 

So go Ducks. I hope that you prove me to be a pessimist, and if you do, I'll be rooting for you all the way.

 

 

[Log Haulin]

Ducks made the CFP with less star talent and depth. Ducks also made the championship game they should have won with less.

 

College is a coaches game. Of course you need dudes to execute but the question is...

 

Does Lanning and his coaching staff have the chops to make CFP and compete for a title in 2nd year?

 

Going to be fun to find out. 

[DuckFan93]

I wish I could see it, but I don't - we couldn't even win Oregon and NW championship this year.    Next year, it would be great if we could take care of those, which will still be tall orders.    

 

But as I always tell my kids - aim high even if it seems impossible then good things will happen.

Edited February 6, 2023 by DuckFan93

[The Kamikaze Kid]

Win the championship? Probably not.

 

Make championship game. Possible but not likely.

 

Make the playoffs? Quite possible.

[Duckhart]

Tall order win or make championship game.

Going to be tough to even make the playoffs, imo.

 

Id settle for a Rose Bowl bid....

[JDuck]

O-line hire, O-line rebuild, Nix stays healthy...check.  Special teams makes enough improvement to help squeak out close ones...check.  Defense.  I think it'll be way better.  Does it need to be top 25? 
 

Maybe not if the offense can put up 40+ in playoff level games, but will 45 be enough if the defense gives up 48 or 49 to the AlabamaClemsonGeorgia-tOSU level teams?   Think we can win the Pac, and with one loss would very likely make the dance.  What happens there TBD

[GeotechDuck]

Not to be negative, but I just don't see it.  There are too many teams in the PAC that return a ton of experience and are very good teams - USC, Washington, Utah.  Oregon has a roster with significant turnover, new OC, New OL coach, rebuilt OL and a bunch of unproven players on a defense that was pretty bad at times last season.  They are going to take a couple losses.  If Oregon can somehow win the PAC-12, I will jumping up and down. 

 

I agree with Nevada Dawg, that the goal should be building the roster in time to make the 12-team playoff in year 4.  

Edited February 7, 2023 by GeotechDuck

[Nevada Dawg]

Well in light of my earlier post which could be framed as pessimistic about the Ducks' chances next year, it is only fair that I report the 4-team picks for the playoffs among ESPN"s college football scribes. Two of the eight writers, David Hale and Bill Connelly, did indeed tab the Ducks in the four-team playoffs. The most popular Pac-12 pick was USC who were picked as playoff participants by 6 of the writers. Georgia and Alabama were tabbed as participants by seven of the eight writers. 

 

So there is some support for the Ducks among the pundits and, in my humble opinion, way, way to much support for the Trojans who managed to lose their biggest games with a Heisman QB at the helm.

[Jon Joseph]

FWIW, Ducks Wire predicts the Ducks will go 11-1 in the 2023 regular season. Loss vs USC in Eugene but revenge vs the Trojans in the conference champ game.

 

Ay 12-1 the Ducks would be in the Final 4. I love the enthusiasm but ...?

[Pennsylvania Duck]

On 2/12/2023 at 12:34 PM, Jon Joseph said:

FWIW, Ducks Wire predicts the Ducks will go 11-1 in the 2023 regular season. Loss vs USC in Eugene but revenge vs the Trojans in the conference champ game.

 

Ay 12-1 the Ducks would be in the Final 4. I love the enthusiasm but ...?

 

FYI, here is the article Jon is referring to...

 

Oregon Football: 2023 Ducks’ schedule with game-by-game predictions

DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM

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The Ducks have a tough schedule going into 2023. Here’s how we expect it all to play out.

 

[1Funduck]

By all accounts, U$C should be a better team this coming year. That Tulane meltdown was pure mental IMO. I'm not saying their defense was good, but they should have won easily. The mental toughness should continue to mature along with physically maturing as well. 

 

U$C is tough to predict this year. But, I agree with the conclusion that it's U$C and UO for the slip into the playoffs. The health of the roster will be the factor IMO. I foresee pretty comparable teams for 2023. 

 

And don't count out UW, OSU, and UU. UCLA might even be a sleeper. This conference is the best top to bottom. I would rate it a close 3rd with the top 2.

 

3-PAC-UO U$C

1-B1G-OSU UM

2-SEC-UG Ala

 

Yep, the B1G dethrones the SEC in 2023.

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/12/2023 at 1:49 PM, 1Funduck said:

By all accounts, U$C should be a better team this coming year. That Tulane meltdown was pure mental IMO. I'm not saying their defense was good, but they should have won easily. The mental toughness should continue to mature along with physically maturing as well. 

 

U$C is tough to predict this year. But, I agree with the conclusion that it's U$C and UO for the slip into the playoffs. The health of the roster will be the factor IMO. I foresee pretty comparable teams for 2023. 

 

And don't count out UW, OSU, and UU. UCLA might even be a sleeper. This conference is the best top to bottom. I would rate it a close 3rd with the top 2.

 

3-PAC-UO U$C

1-B1G-OSU UM

2-SEC-UG Ala

 

Yep, the B1G dethrones the SEC in 2023.

Wish I could agree but I do not see Ohio State with a new QB, Michigan or Penn State defeating Georgia.

[1Funduck]

On 2/12/2023 at 11:47 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Wish I could agree but I do not see Ohio State with a new QB, Michigan or Penn State defeating Georgia.

And yet Georgia will have a new QB as well. OSU was impressive against Georgia and should have won. 

[OhioDuck]

Now if everything works right, OC doesn't miss a beat, new O line coach puts together some pretty good O line piece and they play well together, the portal additions to the defense improve the defense, either Nix doesn't get hurt or a good back up develops... then we could be right there in the thick of things.

 

After all how far away were we last year, really 9 points away. Four more points vs. OSU, five more vs. UW or 4 and 5 less for our opponents. Then a win in the PAC championship game win. Boom we're in.

 

If everything above works right, yes Oregon could go to the playoffs. And who knows what happens when we get there. 

 

Of course when does EVERYTHING go right?

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/12/2023 at 10:49 PM, OhioDuck said:

Now if everything works right, OC doesn't miss a beat, new O line coach puts together some pretty good O line piece and they play well together, the portal additions to the defense improve the defense, either Nix doesn't get hurt or a good back up develops... then we could be right there in the thick of things.

 

After all how far away were we last year, really 9 points away. Four more points vs. OSU, five more vs. UW or 4 and 5 less for our opponents. Then a win in the PAC championship game win. Boom we're in.

 

If everything above works right, yes Oregon could go to the playoffs. And who knows what happens when we get there. 

 

Of course when does EVERYTHING go right?

 

On occasion, but not for long.

[Charles Fischer]

On 2/12/2023 at 7:59 PM, Jon Joseph said:

On occasion, but not for long.

 

Oh my, the Ducks are perpetually doomed to where I'm headed...the crapper!

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/13/2023 at 12:08 AM, Charles Fischer said:

 

Oh my, the Ducks are perpetually doomed to where I'm headed...the crapper!

No way are the Ducks doomed in any way, shape, or form. My comment was directed at life in general where Murphy's Law will rear its head from time to time.

 

NOTHING in this world is ever as good as it seems or as bad as it seems. On rare occasions my golf swing actually 'works.'

 

In 2023 Oregon has a perfect week 7 bye week. But the schedule is tough. Oregon will play 5 to even 6 ranked teams. Ohio State will play 3 including at Notre Dame. Michigan will play 2. Georgia's schedule by SEC standards is a cake walk. Will Bo stay healthy? He was hurt badly his last season at Auburn and his injury last season crippled the entire offense. The QB room at Oregon is thin.

 

If this was 2024 I'd like Oregon to make the 12 team field but to make a four team field in 2023 is a big ask. But, you never know?

[Washington Waddler]

     Dorothy dreamed of a world of OZ; football fans dream of a world of IF.  Sometimes you can click your heels together, and you’re in the Emerald City; other times you’re back in Kansas. Either way, it’s a great trip!

[OhioDuck]

On 2/12/2023 at 10:59 PM, Jon Joseph said:

On occasion, but not for long.

Yes, much of the fun of life is adjusting when things don't go how you planned. Actually it's no always fun, but sure makes life interesting.

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/6/2023 at 6:09 PM, Duckhart said:

Tall order win or make championship game.

Going to be tough to even make the playoffs, imo.

 

Id settle for a Rose Bowl bid....

It's a final 4 semi-final playoff site so not a bad bowl to settle for.

[Mike West]

Can OBD go undefeated?  If so yes.  Duh? Yes, but any PAC12 team that goes unbeaten will really have a shot at winning the whole thing.

 

More so than the year OBD ran the table in 2010.  I don't see the talent, or the killer instinct in this year's team ( Chip's boys were assassins - point blank).

 

Chip's team had talent, but they were monsters through and through.  Tough, tenacious, focused, and flat out hungry. 

 

I haven't seen that since.  Did you see the way Georgia opened and closed last year?  They left no doubt who was superior.  That is what's missing. Heck, that type of intensity usually produces victory. 

 

I'd rather see my team make mistakes with that intensity level because eventually, improvement leads to butt whuppings.

 

You know, like Georgia did often last year (and Chip's Natty team did all year). Chip's team didn't have near the talent level we've seen throughout the playoff era, but that beast mode effort matched every single one of them.

 

So, with that effort and intensity, then yes, I say they will perform well enough to run the table.  I don't think it will happen, but the defense alone will dramatically improve if they play like a team possessed.  

 

One can dream that OBD plug themselves into that machine in the Matrix  movie to teach them to be rabid dogs.  But I'll accept their best effort nonetheless.

[Nevada Dawg]

 

Teams that are reasonably talented can catch lighting in a bottle and make a worthy competitor for a natty. Georgia was such a team in 2017,  Kirby Smart's second year,  losing in OT in the natty to Alabama on a blown coverage in the secondary. Yet, they did not yet have the roster to be talked about again the way they are talked about now until 2021. One team that did catch lightning in the bottle and win the natty was 2019 LSU. Their roster was not very deep, and as a result, they fell well off in 2020 and 2021. 

 

The PAQ-12  is improving and is going to be fun watching. But I don't believe that any of the schools yet have a roster that makes them a shoo-in for a playoff berth in a four-team playoff. Should someone out here actually go undefeated, that will solve the inclusion problem, though I don't expect that to happen. A one-loss champ will also have a shot. But there is this perception among the rest of college football that the league is soft-- a perception that can only be overcome by some good intersectional wins against strong programs. Those kinds of wins are not happening often enough. The best in recent memory was the Ducks'  win in Columbus two years ago.

 

So, again, I'll conclude that an affirmative answer to the question that prompted this thread is not totally beyond the realm of possibility, but it is highly, highly unlikely. It would be nice to see though if my Dawgs, who definitely have a roster that is playoff worthy, falter along the way and are eliminated.

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/5/2023 at 2:21 PM, Duck Fan 76 said:

I mean Georgia went through Alabama multiple times the past two years... it's true that their OOC games are complete puffs but the road to the SEC champion crown is a pretty high bar.  Your point is valid though but I think the Clemson comparison is more apt.  

Georgia went 1-1 vs Bama in 2021 and did not play Bama in 2022. Georgia's 2023 schedule by SEC standards is a cakewalk. I'll be very surprised if UGA is not in the final 4 in 2023.

 

Bama is 125 out of 133 schools in returning productivity and has a new OC and a new DC. I know it's Saint Nick and the game is in Tuscaloosa this season but I like LSU to again win the SEC W.

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/14/2023 at 1:42 AM, Nevada Dawg said:

 

Teams that are reasonably talented can catch lighting in a bottle and make a worthy competitor for a natty. Georgia was such a team in 2017,  Kirby Smart's second year,  losing in OT in the natty to Alabama on a blown coverage in the secondary. Yet, they did not yet have the roster to be talked about again the way they are talked about now until 2021. One team that did catch lightning in the bottle and win the natty was 2019 LSU. Their roster was not very deep, and as a result, they fell well off in 2020 and 2021. 

 

The PAQ-12  is improving and is going to be fun watching. But I don't believe that any of the schools yet have a roster that makes them a shoo-in for a playoff berth in a four-team playoff. Should someone out here actually go undefeated, that will solve the inclusion problem, though I don't expect that to happen. A one-loss champ will also have a shot. But there is this perception among the rest of college football that the league is soft-- a perception that can only be overcome by some good intersectional wins against strong programs. Those kinds of wins are not happening often enough. The best in recent memory was the Ducks'  win in Columbus two years ago.

 

So, again, I'll conclude that an affirmative answer to the question that prompted this thread is not totally beyond the realm of possibility, but it is highly, highly unlikely. It would be nice to see though if my Dawgs, who definitely have a roster that is playoff worthy, falter along the way and are eliminated.

With the 2023 schedule your Dawgs are back in the Final 4 in 2023.

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/14/2023 at 12:48 AM, Mike West said:

Can OBD go undefeated?  If so yes.  Duh? Yes, but any PAC12 team that goes unbeaten will really have a shot at winning the whole thing.

 

More so than the year OBD ran the table in 2010.  I don't see the talent, or the killer instinct in this year's team ( Chip's boys were assassins - point blank).

 

Chip's team had talent, but they were monsters through and through.  Tough, tenacious, focused, and flat out hungry. 

 

I haven't seen that since.  Did you see the way Georgia opened and closed last year?  They left no doubt who was superior.  That is what's missing. Heck, that type of intensity usually produces victory. 

 

I'd rather see my team make mistakes with that intensity level because eventually, improvement leads to butt whuppings.

 

You know, like Georgia did often last year (and Chip's Natty team did all year). Chip's team didn't have near the talent level we've seen throughout the playoff era, but that beast mode effort matched every single one of them.

 

So, with that effort and intensity, then yes, I say they will perform well enough to run the table.  I don't think it will happen, but the defense alone will dramatically improve if they play like a team possessed.  

 

One can dream that OBD plug themselves into that machine in the Matrix  movie to teach them to be rabid dogs.  But I'll accept their best effort nonetheless.

Great take. The games were both wins which are all that matters but the LSU and Ohio State passing games lit up UGA last season. The Buckeyes beat the Dawgs in Atlanta if Harrison isn't 'cheap-shotted' out of the game. 

 

UGA sleep-walked through a number of games last season including at Mizzou. UGA certainly was not ready for the street-fight vs tOSU in Atlanta.

 

I'm not disagreeing that Chip's teams featured a group of great competitors (aided and abetted by a great and underrated DC) but Oregon had at that time a huge schematic advantage. An advantage was that wasted by bad play calling versus Auburn and beaten up by superior talent, with Helrich as HC, in the 1st PO champ game versus Ohio State. [That Buckeyes team was loaded including having Joey Bosa who was this season's NFL D player of the year. ]

 

And therein lies the rub. Have to have great roster depth to win 2 PO games and come 2024 and definitely in 2026 when the field will IMO go to 16 teams, to win 3 games in order to win it all. 

[Nevada Dawg]

Georgia's "cakewalk" schedule is  far from  their doing. The second game next year  was to be a road game to Norman to play OU. The SEC forced Georgia to drop that game, the first of a home  and home, because the second part of that home and home was a few years out and probably could not be easily accommodated in the new SEC 9-game scheduling model. The word I have heard is that Kirby Smart wanted to play the game anyway, probably to get his team's competitive juices flowing early like they were for the Ducks game last year. But the request was denied.

 

Georgia  is also one of strongest league proponents of the 9 league game model. I suspect that this is the model that will  prevail as TX and OK are assimilated next year. But I'm  told that several teams would still prefer the 8 game schedule because, by adding a cupcake game rather than a 9th SEC game, it  makes it easier for them to become bowl eligible. The 9-game model, which each team having 3 permanent rivals and 6 that rotate, preserves all  major rivalries and enables each team to play each of the other teams over a two-year period. It also allows a four-year player  to play in every one of the league's stadiums. The way the schedule is now, some teams (e.g., Georgia) have not yet played Texas A&M in College Station, although they have met in Athens.

 

The Georgia fan base, particularly ticket holders. absolutely hate the cupcake games, which are sometimes referred to as "baby seal clubbings." One  poll of fans on the Dawg Nation site indicated that fans' favorite schedule in recent years was the 2020 COVID-year slate which consisted solely of 10 SEC opponents. Kirby Smart has said that the best thing about non power-five games is the opportunity to get younger players a fair number of game-time reps instrumental for their development. But he would rather have fewer of these games. 

 

I personally would prefer that the schedule  require at least one non-league power 5 matchup apart from the SEC schedule. Georgia already has one every year  with Georgia Tech . Tech is down for now but they won't be  forever. Some fans would rather swap out Tech for a Clemson or Florida State, but given its historical significance, I suspect the Tech game will survive.

 

[Mike West]

On 2/14/2023 at 7:51 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Great take. The games were both wins which are all that matters but the LSU and Ohio State passing games lit up UGA last season. The Buckeyes beat the Dawgs in Atlanta if Harrison isn't 'cheap-shotted' out of the game. 

 

UGA sleep-walked through a number of games last season including at Mizzou. UGA certainly was not ready for the street-fight vs tOSU in Atlanta.

 

I'm not disagreeing that Chip's teams featured a group of great competitors (aided and abetted by a great and underrated DC) but Oregon had at that time a huge schematic advantage. An advantage was that wasted by bad play calling versus Auburn and beaten up by superior talent, with Helrich as HC, in the 1st PO champ game versus Ohio State. [That Buckeyes team was loaded including having Joey Bosa who was this season's NFL D player of the year. ]

 

And therein lies the rub. Have to have great roster depth to win 2 PO games and come 2024 and definitely in 2026 when the field will IMO go to 16 teams, to win 3 games in order to win it all. 

Awesome take as usual my friend.  I do believe the schematic advantage was handled well by Auburn ( the coaching in the SEC is superior to other conferences), but they did not handle OBD passing game well, which Chip failed to exploit enough.

 

There lies the rub, because Chip's team was also equally matched against the Tigers, and Chip's team was unfazed at the fact the Tigers neutralized that schematic advantage.

 

Hence the kind of mental toughness and fierceness to climb back into the game despite all the obstacles the team faced.

 

In the Ohio State title game, our injuries nullified an opportunity to match some of that NFL clad talent, and some truly poor linebacker play wasted a tie game at the start of the fourth quarter.  

 

Not to mention a failed opportunity to force a safety to convert tOSU's series back to OBD early in the game after we took the early lead.  

 

Talent absolutely matters.  Talented  Depth matters more.  But I do believe the size of the fight in the dog matters as much as  the size of the dog in the fight.

 

For instance, I didn't see any ferocity last September in Atlanta, like an outburst or two or a scrap or two to let the Bulldogs know they were going home sore that night.  

 

I would have rather seen lots of Bulldogs on the ground no matter the score.  Teams respect that kind of effort, even in a rout.  

 

We saw OBD had talent,  as the season progressed. As a coach or a fan, I know I would fear a team that punches a more talented team in the face no matter the score. That commands everyone's attention because you KNOW you better being your A game .  

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/15/2023 at 4:55 PM, Mike West said:

Awesome take as usual my friend.  I do believe the schematic advantage was handled well by Auburn ( the coaching in the SEC is superior to other conferences), but they did not handle OBD passing game well, which Chip failed to exploit enough.

 

There lies the rub, because Chip's team was also equally matched against the Tigers, and Chip's team was unfazed at the fact the Tigers neutralized that schematic advantage.

 

Hence the kind of mental toughness and fierceness to climb back into the game despite all the obstacles the team faced.

 

In the Ohio State title game, our injuries nullified an opportunity to match some of that NFL clad talent, and some truly poor linebacker play wasted a tie game at the start of the fourth quarter.  

 

Not to mention a failed opportunity to force a safety to convert tOSU's series back to OBD early in the game after we took the early lead.  

 

Talent absolutely matters.  Talented  Depth matters more.  But I do believe the size of the fight in the dog matters as much as  the size of the dog in the fight.

 

For instance, I didn't see any ferocity last September in Atlanta, like an outburst or two or a scrap or two to let the Bulldogs know they were going home sore that night.  

 

I would have rather seen lots of Bulldogs on the ground no matter the score.  Teams respect that kind of effort, even in a rout.  

 

We saw OBD had talent,  as the season progressed. As a coach or a fan, I know I would fear a team that punches a more talented team in the face no matter the score. That commands everyone's attention because you KNOW you better being your A game .  

AMEN. Which I'd like to forget but reminds me of the Civil War 2022 loss. That was a smash mouth 4th Q beat down. Not a pass is thrown in the 4th Q by the Beavers and they come back to win? Impressive.

 

One thing I am sure we agree upon for certain. No team in any sport is always going to bring its A-game. The key to titles is to win the games when you are not performing at grade A.

 

The size of the dog in the fight? Amen.

 

But roster depth matters a whole lot in CFB. Why UGA blew out Oregon and TCU yet could have lost at Mizzou and should have lost vs Ohio State?

 

Hope it is all good in LV.

 

 

[lownslowav8r]

Really knowledgeable and thoughtful posts. Thanks everyone!

 

 

[Nevada Dawg]

On 2/15/2023 at 1:55 PM, Mike West said:

Great take. The games were both wins which are all that matters but the LSU and Ohio State passing games lit up UGA last season. The Buckeyes beat the Dawgs in Atlanta if Harrison isn't 'cheap-shotted' out of the game. 

Not trying to be argumentative necessarily, but three teams of officials, the crew chief refereeing the game, the game replay officials in the booth, and the NCAA referees who responded to Day's protests all concluded that this was neither targeting nor a cheap shot on Harrison, but rather a strong hit to the shoulder. I have seen many replays of this play from five different angles and it seems rather clear that this was not targeting, but rather, a terrific defensive play.

 

Finally, a play that occurred fairly early in the 4th quarter is hardly the reason OSU lost this football game. The biggest factor was that the 2022 Dawgs, in competitive games, proved to be one of the most focused 4th Quarter teams I have ever seen at any level. True, OSU played a whale of a game and made it most difficult, but when the chips were down in that fateful quarter, Georgia prevailed 18-3!

 

 

[duck023]

On 2/16/2023 at 10:37 PM, Nevada Dawg said:

Not trying to be argumentative necessarily, but three teams of officials, the crew chief refereeing the game, the game replay officials in the booth, and the NCAA referees who responded to Day's protests all concluded that this was neither targeting nor a cheap shot on Harrison, but rather a strong hit to the shoulder. I have seen many replays of this play from five different angles and it seems rather clear that this was not targeting, but rather, a terrific defensive play.

 

Finally, a play that occurred fairly early in the 4th quarter is hardly the reason OSU lost this football game. The biggest factor was that the 2022 Dawgs, in competitive games, proved to be one of the most focused 4th Quarter teams I have ever seen at any level. True, OSU played a whale of a game and made it most difficult, but when the chips were down in that fateful quarter, Georgia prevailed 18-3!

 

 

First off understand you are talking to Oregon fans, and we see Oregon get a BS targeting almost every game. If that is at #2 Oregon team playing Stanford late in the season that is getting called on Oregon 100% of the time. There needs to be some consistency with targeting calls.

[Pennsylvania Duck]

Closing out games becomes top priority if Ducks hope to reach CFP in 2023

 

Quarterback Bo Nix is returning; all of the top skill-position guys are returning, and the defense is expected to be a lot better with some new transfers coming in. Despite a remade offensive line, projections are high for Oregon in 2023.

 

However, there is one thing that they will need to improve upon if they want to close out and reach their ceiling this fall.

 

They need to finish better.

 

Oregon Football: Closing out games becomes priority for Ducks in 2023

DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM

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The Ducks have a chance to compete for a College Football Playoff spot in 2023. If they do so, though, they’ll need to be better at...