Is the Final Pac-12/Oregon Screw-Job Shaping Up?

[Charles Fischer]

I know so many of you have said that if Oregon wins out...we're in the Playoff.  Just because you or I wrote it, or Kirk Herbstreit said it--doesn't mean it will happen.

 

If Oregon State drops out of the top-25, (and they could now with four losses) then Oregon has NO victories over ranked teams.  We've already heard that on the ESPN Playoff show, and it could end up being true until we beat Washington.

 

But today I heard an analyst say after the Michigan win that, "Ohio State is now the best one-loss team, as their one loss is to a higher ranked Michigan--as opposed to Oregon's against Washington."

 

I could just HEAR the screw-job beginning.  One last year of the Pac-12?  One last opportunity to hose you again!

 

[Dr Hilarius]

But tOSU lost by more and in November.

 

Also, Ducks dominated UW except when they didn’t.

 

UM dominated tOSU wire to wire.

 

Also, tOSU might well be the best 1-loss team today. 

 

But when the buck-eyes are eating queso next week, OBD will be beating the #3 team.

[Chas Man]

Although the #3 team is currently struggling to beat WSU at home.

[OregonDucks]

The B1G and SEC hype machine are on another level.  Unfortunately for the Ducks, I think that they'll still favor Ohio State and Michigan, even when we are in the conference.

 

Oregon needs Washington to win this Apple Cup and then to win big against Washington!

[Haywarduck]

Many things can go wrong, but all we can do is take care of our business. Oh and Camden needs to take care of his business too!

 

As much as I would love to see the dawgs lose tonight they need to look dominant this time. The dawg fade as the season has progressed looks weak too!

 

Not what they are doing right now. Get your act together dawgs! 

 

At least Auburn is giving Alabama a run, and may win. We also need Florida to show the FSU the door!

[NJDuck]

 

Auburn special teams receiver just laid an egg, giving Bama life.  Ugh

[Log Haulin]

Ducks would be conf champs. That means something.

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

A one loss P5 conference champion has never been beaten out of a playoff spot by a one loss P5 non-conference champion. When Bama, UGA, and OSU/TCU went as non -conference champions it was because the other conferences had 2-loss champs. The BCS era was a little different. Oklahoma State did get bumped by a one loss Bama team in 2011.

[NJDuck]

Wow, Bama just hiked the ball and QB was not ready. Now a loss of down

[NJDuck]

 

Dumb defensive stance by Auburn.  Unbelievable, Bama scored.

[NJDuck]

 

Wow, bad finished to what could have been an Auburn upset.

[spartan2785]

If we beat UW it will be a better win than anything on Ohio St.'s resume, we will also be a conference champion, I think we'll get in with a win next week, nothing we can do about it though either way.

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

On 11/25/2023 at 7:00 PM, NJDuck said:

 

Dumb defensive stance by Auburn.  Unbelievable, Bama scored.

Not a good look for Bama in the eyes of the committee. They may have got caught looking ahead to UGA. 

[WaterPoloDuck]

I don't think UW is going to win the Apple cup

[TexasDuck]

Bank on it.  If it comes down to us and anOSU, they’ll get the nod.  

[Desert Duck]

Absolutely, Charles. I was already thinking the same thing.

 

And now that Auburn totally sucked it beyond belief, it's shaping up nicely for us to get reamed again like we did in 2001. 

 

Plus, even the freaking Huskies are doing all they can to lose to the Cougars and make it even more unlikely for us to get in. 

Edited November 26, 2023 by Desert Duck

[TexasDuck]

I’m completely conflicted watching the Apple Cup.  My lifelong stance of rooting hard against the Fuskies is being challenged.

[Desert Duck]

We're gonna take these dogs apart on Friday night. 

[TexasDuck]

Okay.  Leave no doubt against the undefeated Fuskies and we won’t get jobbed for a playoff spot.  
 

Another plus in our favor is the popularity of Bo Nix.  The media really likes him.  
 

[MikeJ]

I hope not, but I hear you Charles.  tOSU losing close today, the recent talk about Texas getting into the playoff, and Alabama pulling it out, it just gives you a nervous feeling.

[HappyToBeADuck]

I can see how many on this Forum could feel a screw job setup could be brewing. My gut feeling just doesnt support that thinking.

 

Even if the comittee, for any reason, builds a criteria that tOSU is the best 1 loss team, which i doubt they will, then it won't hold thru championship weekend.

 

The Ducks, Longhorns and Bama have navigated thru their season and earned a shot in their respective conference title game.

 

tOSU had their chance and lost. No title shot for the buckeyes. The CFP has penalized teams who lose late in the season. A late loss cannot be overcome without chaos.

 

DrJacksPlaidPants is correct that the CFP has put non-conference champs in because other conference champs had 2 losses.

 

The BCS (All BS in my opinion) was flawed, deeply flawed. They manipulated the system and the Ducks did get screwed. Remember, Auburn was 12-0 and they didn't get a BS invite, just a screw job.

 

The CFP committee has been much better. However anything is possible.

 

The CFP, in different seasons, had both Oregon and Utah primed for invites. Both lost their play in games and thus their invites. They screwed themselves. No conspiracy or east coast bias that i can discern.

 

If the Ducks, Tide and Longhorns lose, they wont get an invite. A 1 loss tOSU would be in position to get an invite. No conspiracy or screw job if you win.

 

If their are 4 undefeated teams standing after tonight lets hope the huskies are one of those teams. OBD's will have a shot to win and position themselves for an invite.

 

Ducks just take care of business and throttle the huskies. No CFP invite without a,12-1 record and a PAC Title.

 

Some have now mentioned that Texas could jump Oregon. WTH? Oregon has done nothing to diminish its standing with the committee. In fact the final destruction of Beavus should enhance that view.

 

The little big 12 title game is not a glamour matchup. Texas will win the game against nobody. Ducks beating an undefeated #4? Even a non Duck fan can see that.....

 

IMHO, their is only one scenario that the Duck fan should be concerned with and thats Bama over Georgia in a great, close game.

 

Dont know if thats enough for Bama to climb over the Ducks and Longhorns? Not a scenario i wish to see.

 

It's all fun to ponder on this awesome football weekend on the best sports Forum in the world.

 

But this Duck fan has enough to worry about and that's the putrid huskies. The game called the 2023 PAC 12 football season is now in the final minute and 4th and goal from the 1 yard line. It is the last breath for a once proud conference now on life support.

 

All bragging rights will be final....

 

Go Ducks! Beat the huskies..... 

[David Marsh]

Need the gators to take out FSU. 

 

That will open up a lot for the Ducks. 

 

But I'm not feeling great about the Gators right now. 

[JDuck]

OkSt beat Texass

Florida finish off FSU tonight

GA beat bama

And of course we crush the mutts.

 

Louisville add another loss to FSU can't hurt but if the Gators win tonight it won't matter.

 

1 GA

2 MI

3 OR

4 tOSU.

 

There you have it

[The Kamikaze Kid]

Florida had FSU dead in the water until a Gator thought it would be fun to spit on an FSU player negating a third down stop that lead to FSU's first score.There's geeze then there's GEEZE!

[Duckhart2]

If Oregon Takes care of business in Vegas we will get the nod over a 1 loss OSU. Conference Champ, the whole nation saw how we lost to WA and outplayed them, and we've been pretty consistent and the big thing is they know we have a defense now. 

[Maebee]

Fuskies needed a late phantom roughing call by p2 refs to win by a FG. Is it mandatory P2 officials call the championship game or could we get an unbiased neutral Vegas high school crew to cover it?

[MikeJ]

It's painful watching the mediocrity on both sides of this Florida-FSU game and knowing FSU is still in the running.

[1Funduck]

Its real clear to me. If Oregon was playing a 1 loss #8 Washington team then I could see the danger. But, Oregon is playing the #3 Undefeated Washington Huskies.

 

It's going to be a strangling. 

 

I called 38-17 against Beavus. Oregon's defense was much better than predicted. Oregon beats Washington 31-17. And its not going to be even that close of a game.

 

Oregon ends being #3 in the playoffs. They beat Michigan and then play Georgia for it all. 

 

Oregon is 2024 Natty Champions!!!! Bo wins Heisman.

[TerryM9]

OSU should not get in if there are any 1 loss conference champs. They have a ton of talent, but not at quarterback, and the least imaginative offense I have watched in a long time. I honestly thought it was one of the most boring, over hyped games I have tried to watch.The defenses on both teams looked similar to the OSU team that Mario out schemed a few years ago. No imagination. Maybe Iowa beats Michigan 3-2.

 

I am a bit worried about Texas, after them running up the score on a very mediocre Texas Tech team that did not have their starting Quarterback.

 

FSU is unbeaten and untested

 

I still think that we beat Washington and we are in. 

Edited November 26, 2023 by TerryM9
clarification of a sentence

[Ktmguy2018]

I get the fear, for me it stems back to Harrington getting jobbed.

 

However, since that UW loss, Oregon has destroyed opponents....not just beaten them, destroyed them.  As a superior team should.

 

Bama struggled against a .500 team, Florida State struggled against a .500 team.  The "experts" don't trust Texas

..far to many close games against inferior competition.

 

Eye test matters...at least I am telling myself that.

 

[2002duck]

On 11/25/2023 at 3:51 PM, Log Haulin said:

Ducks would be conf champs. That means something.

I've been on the National Championship or bust train for about 20+ years. Seriously.

Edited November 26, 2023 by 2002duck

[Nevada Dawg]

On 11/25/2023 at 4:31 PM, TexasDuck said:

I’m completely conflicted watching the Apple Cup.  My lifelong stance of rooting hard against the Fuskies is being challenged.

As it should be. Ducks need to beat an undefeated team of Fuskies in the PAC-12 Championship game.

[Nevada Dawg]

On 11/25/2023 at 6:33 PM, Duckhart2 said:

If Oregon Takes care of business in Vegas we will get the nod over a 1 loss OSU. Conference Champ, the whole nation saw how we lost to WA and outplayed them, and we've been pretty consistent and the big thing is they know we have a defense now. 

I like the part about the Ducks, as PAC-12 champs getting the nod over 1-loss OSU which will have played one less game than the others in the playoff picture. I quibble with the argument that the whole nation saw how we outplayed UW in a losing cause. You ask most people who are not PAC-12 fans, they probably think that UW won that game because they had the better team on that night.

 

I personally believe that the Fuskies have regressed noticeably since that fateful day in Seattle, whereas the Ducks have gotten better. I expect that to be readily apparent Friday next. Go Ducks!!

[Jon Joseph]

Back from the Left Coast where kick-off times are far easier on old guys.

 

TOTAL DOMINATION in the Civil War. Like Lee trying to take the fortified hill in Gettysburg.

 

UW, thank goodness scrapped by today, I watched the game on the plane on the way home. Bama basically lucked out at Auburn. Louisville lost but unfortunately, FSU won.

 

OK State, thank goodness, came back from a big deficit vs BYU so it's Texas, a beat-down win over unranked TX Tech and OK St in the B12 champ game and not Oklahoma. 13-0 Michigan will beat no O Iowa. Louisville could challenge FSU down its QB in the ACC champ game. 11-1 Ohio State looks to be out of the Final 4 running. 

 

UW should move up to 3. FSU likely moves to 4 and then will it be Oregon or Ohio State at 5? UW is primed for a Puddles plucking. With the glamour off of the B12 champ game, Oregon is in a great Final 4 position. I think UGA defeats Bama, 

 

Beat UW and do not see the Ducks being left out in favor of a 1-loss Texas assuming UGA, Michigan. and FSU finish 13-0.  And again, I'm not sure FSU can defeat Louisville, and with the game control beat-down of Oregon State, I think OSU will be ranked, and a win over #3 UW should seal the deal. 

 

Should be UGA #1, Michigan #2, and a shot for Oregon to be #3 and play Michigan in the Rose Bowl.

 

QUACK!

[DUCKED]

What happens if Bama beats Georgia?

 

Michigan

Bama

Georgia

?

 

If Oregon wins on Friday, does that secure the 4th spot?

 

A Husky win would certainly put them in the playoff……at No.2 most likely. 
 

Then what?

[Log Haulin]

On 11/25/2023 at 9:49 PM, 2002duck said:

I've been on the National Championship or bust train for about 20+ years. Seriously.

Not sure what you mean with this statement. But I think most of use have been on the NC or bust train for decades. It's really been the only goal coming into every season.

[Dr Hilarius]

My predictions after this week:

 

1 UM

2 Georgia 

3 UW

4 FSU

5 tOSU

6 OBD

7 Tex

 

My predictions after next week:

 

1 Georgia 

2 UM

3 OBD

4 Tex

5 UW

6 FSU

7 tOSU

 

This assumes FSU loses to Louisville. If they don’t, FSU at 3 and the rest move down 1.

 

I just really, really want OBD to play in the Rose Bowl, and bet the football gods (aka networks) do too.

[Jon Joseph]

On 11/26/2023 at 11:31 AM, Dr Hilarius said:

My predictions after this week:

 

1 UM

2 Georgia 

3 UW

4 FSU

5 tOSU

6 OBD

7 Tex

 

My predictions after next week:

 

1 Georgia 

2 UM

3 OBD

4 Tex

5 UW

6 FSU

7 tOSU

 

This assumes FSU loses to Louisville. If they don’t, FSU at 3 and the rest move down 1.

 

I just really, really want OBD to play in the Rose Bowl, and bet the football gods (aka networks) do too.

How sweet would a PO return Rose Bowl game be vs. Michigan? 

 

FSU defeats Louisville, UGA, MI, UT, and OREGON all win and it will be a quandary for the Committee. Made even worse if Bama off its miracle win at Auburn beats UGA.

 

12 team playoff anyone?

[DUCKED]

On 11/26/2023 at 7:23 AM, DUCKED said:

What happens if Bama beats Georgia?

 

Michigan

Bama

Georgia

?

 

If Oregon wins on Friday, does that secure the 4th spot?

 

A Husky win would certainly put them in the playoff……at No.2 most likely. 
 

Then what?

If Bama beats Georgia, what does that mean for one loss Texas, which beat Alabama?

 

Will the selection committee show any love for the Pac-12…..as it crumbles and dies?

[HDuck]

The 8 Playoff contenders

How they fared against teams currently in AP Top 25

What might the Playoff Committee do?

 

Georgia

W’s:  (9) Mizzou, (11) Ole Miss

Next:  (8) Alabama

 

Michigan

W’s:  (6) Ohio St, (10) Penn St

Next:  (18) Iowa

 

Washington

W’s:  (5) Oregon, (14) Arizona, (21) OSU

Next:  (5) Oregon

 

Florida St

W’s:  (13) LSU

Next:  (15) Louisville

 

Oregon

W’s:  (21) OSU

L:  at (3) Washington

Next: (3) Washington

 

Ohio St

W’s:  (10) Penn St, (16) Notre Dame

L:  at (2) Michigan

Next:  done

 

Texas:

W’s:  (8) Alabama

L:  (12) Oklahoma

Next:  (19) Okie State

 

Alabama

W’s:  (11) Ole Miss, (13) LSU

L:  (7) Texas

Next:  (1) Georgia

[Jon Joseph]

On 11/26/2023 at 3:16 PM, HDuck said:

The 8 Playoff contenders

How they fared against teams currently in AP Top 25

What might the Playoff Committee do?

 

Georgia

W’s:  (9) Mizzou, (11) Ole Miss

Next:  (8) Alabama

 

Michigan

W’s:  (6) Ohio St, (10) Penn St

Next:  (18) Iowa

 

Washington

W’s:  (5) Oregon, (14) Arizona, (21) OSU

Next:  (5) Oregon

 

Florida St

W’s:  (13) LSU

Next:  (15) Louisville

 

Oregon

W’s:  (21) OSU

L:  at (3) Washington

Next: (3) Washington

 

Ohio St

W’s:  (10) Penn St, (16) Notre Dame

L:  at (2) Michigan

Next:  done

 

Texas:

W’s:  (8) Alabama

L:  (12) Oklahoma

Next:  (19) Okie State

 

Alabama

W’s:  (11) Ole Miss, (13) LSU

L:  (7) Texas

Next:  (1) Georgia

Great take. Thank you.

 

Of course, it's the Committee's top 25 only that matters. I do think UW will be 3. I'm hoping Oregon as I expect, will stay ahead of Texas and Bama. Ohio State at 11-1 and not a conference champ, is not likely to sneak into the top 4 unless there is complete champ game chaos. So 5 or 6, Oregon playing the number 3 team will, other than Bama, have the toughest champ game matchup. 

 

Ohio State only has a chance if something bizarre happens like Louisville defeating FSU, Iowa defeating Michigan, OK State defeating Texas, Oregon -7.5, and UGA -5.5 winning as the favored teams. 

 

With Bama playing the top-ranked team, chaos could abound should both Bama and UGA finish 12-1. But with a win over the 3rd ranked team, I think Oregon will be in regardless of what happens in the other champ games.

 

It's nice for Oregon to have an extra day to prepare, especially this late in the season. 

[Mic]

Call me a cynic but I think it's in the interests of the CFP to have the winner of the toughest conference in foot ball this year, either O or UW, in the playoffs rather than two teams from the Big 10 who have already faced off together.  Does anyone think the fans around the country really want to see another rematch of those two so soon?  

 

Sorry Ohio State.  You probably don't beat Michigan in a rematch unless you can figure out how to have the rest of their coaches thrown out of the game along with Harbaugh and their starting QB.  

 

The winner from the West makes more sense than Ohio State, again.

Edited November 27, 2023 by Mic

[Jon Joseph]

Based on the AP and as I expected, OSU will remain in the Committee's top 25. And with UW likely to climb to the Committee's number 3 ranked team, a win over UW and a conference title will go a long way.

 

Yes, Texas blew up TX Tech and Bama pulled a victory out of a loss, 10 years after the Kick 6, but I see neither victory as a reason to rank these 2 above Oregon at this point. Oregon defeated the same TT team on the road with TT playing its starting QB. Bama lucked out by beating a team that was humbled the week prior by NM State. 

 

Oregon wins and UGA wins and Oregon is in. It will be dicey if Bama defeats UGA but I believe UGA is the superior team and was not focused in the game versus Georgia Tech. TE Bowers and WR McConkey did not play but both are expected to suit up against Bama. UGA is the -5.5 favorite.

 

Bama's big wins have come against a 4-loss TN team. An Ole Miss team that is the Penn State of the SEC and an LSU team without a defense. All 3 wins coming in Tuscaloosa. 

 

Texas plays 3-loss OK ST and not 2-loss OK. And Louisville's loss to Kentucky does not help FSU. I see no way that Iowa, a team that is dead last in the G5/P5 on offense, pulling off a win against Michigan.

 

If UT is not above Oregon on Tuesday, Texas will not jump a Ducks team that defeated number 3 in the country no matter how badly it defeats OK St.

 

GO DUCKS! 

[Duckhart2]

On 11/25/2023 at 10:24 PM, Nevada Dawg said:

I like the part about the Ducks, as PAC-12 champs getting the nod over 1-loss OSU which will have played one less game than the others in the playoff picture. I quibble with the argument that the whole nation saw how we outplayed UW in a losing cause. You ask most people who are not PAC-12 fans, they probably think that UW won that game because they had the better team on that night.

 

I personally believe that the Fuskies have regressed noticeably since that fateful day in Seattle, whereas the Ducks have gotten better. I expect that to be readily apparent Friday next. Go Ducks!!

Well, I think anyone that watched that game thought Oregon beat themselves, thus the national consensus. The overall stats for that game favor Oregon.

[Nevada Dawg]

Disagree on the national perception. I do believe that Oregon shot themselves in the foot at several junctures in Seattle, but most non-Duck fans are not that attuned to the inner workings of that game and would not come away with the impression that Oregon beat itself. Sorry, but I've had the occasion to talk with several friends from back East who watched that game, and they have asked me if Oregon could beat a team that beat them earlier. No sense among these fans, who know the game of football, that Oregon beat themselves.

 

And there is too much of an obsession on rankings and stats on this board in my opinion. I've often heard it said by people wiser than me that stats are for losers, and I concur in the sense that relying on them to feel better after a loss is meaningless. Like it or not, what matters most is what happens between the lines.

 

And as I alluded to above, I think the Ducks of December are better than they were earlier in Seattle, will not repeat the mistakes made on that fateful day, and will come away with a solid victory in Vegas. 

[Nevada Dawg]

And now I'm feeling more respect for Charles' fear that somehow the PAC-12 and specifically the Ducks could get left out of the playoffs. The Fuskies are now in the top 4 and , should they win on Friday, are in. I personally believe that the Ducks are in with a win as well but it is humans who make these decisions which, sometimes don't leave us with the best four teams. Sunday morning I watched the College Football Final.  wrap-up on ESPN and two of the three commentators had Oregon among their first two out of the playoffs.  These guys also saw a path to the dance for Ohio State. And unbelievably, according to the ESPN computer, the Bucks remained above Michigan on their little power index. wth!

 

Oregon has received enough Buzz during the latter part of the season that many people other than Duck partisans expect the Ducks to be selected should they win on Friday. That makes me feel better but, remember, it is humans who make these selections and do what they do for any number of reasons.

 

I see the SEC Championship game as a play-in to the playoffs, and I bet that Kirby is sending those vibes to his team. This is the way it should be, particularly in a year where there are more than four deserving teams meriting consideration. But I have read three headlines over the past two days, probably written as clickbait, implying that what we think we know about selections may become chaotic should Alabama win the game against Georgia on Saturday. Again, these headlines may all be clickbait, but as an Oregon fan, I'd suggest that we all become Dawg fans for a day on Saturday (no problem for me) so the above doesn't unfold.

[Log Haulin]

On 11/27/2023 at 12:22 PM, Nevada Dawg said:

And now I'm feeling more respect for Charles' fear that somehow the PAC-12 and specifically the Ducks could get left out of the playoffs. The Fuskies are now in the top 4 and , should they win on Friday, are in. I personally believe that the Ducks are in with a win as well but it is humans who make these decisions which, sometimes don't leave us with the best four teams. Sunday morning I watched the College Football Final.  wrap-up on ESPN and two of the three commentators had Oregon among their first two out of the playoffs.  These guys also saw a path to the dance for Ohio State. And unbelievably, according to the ESPN computer, the Bucks remained above Michigan on their little power index. wth!

 

Oregon has received enough Buzz during the latter part of the season that many people other than Duck partisans expect the Ducks to be selected should they win on Friday. That makes me feel better but, remember, it is humans who make these selections and do what they do for any number of reasons.

 

I see the SEC Championship game as a play-in to the playoffs, and I bet that Kirby is sending those vibes to his team. This is the way it should be, particularly in a year where there are more than four deserving teams meriting consideration. But I have read three headlines over the past two days, probably written as clickbait, implying that what we think we know about selections may become chaotic should Alabama win the game against Georgia on Saturday. Again, these headlines may all be clickbait, but as an Oregon fan, I'd suggest that we all become Dawg fans for a day on Saturday (no problem for me) so the above doesn't unfold.

I think most Duck fans are also Dawg fans. Huge respect for UGA  partly due to the Lanning hire. OBDF members, imo, are Dawg fans because of UGA OBDF members like you and SoGaDawg. 

 

Go Ducks!

Go real Dawgs!

[bbmichaels]

On 11/27/2023 at 3:09 PM, Log Haulin said:

I think most Duck fans are also Dawg fans. Huge respect for UGA  partly due to the Lanning hire. OBDF members, imo, are Dawg fans because of UGA OBDF members like you and SoGaDawg

I'll second this.

 

But if you guys keep winning titles all those warm fuzzies might start to fade... 

[Jon Joseph]

Nevada Dawg, your Dawgs take care of business and Puddles beat the Left Coast puppy dogs and Oregon is in like Flynn.

 

UW will be the Committee's #3. A win over #3 and a Pac-12 title will eliminate Ohio State and also 1-loss Texas. FSU defeats Louisville and I see it 1. UA, 2. Michigan, 3. Oregon, and 4 FSU. Undefeated but I think the Committee will take the Seminoles QB situation into consideration as well as setting up a traditional Rose Bowl game.

 

Louisville defeats FSU which could easily happen and the 4 spot goes to 1-loss B12 conference champion Texas.

 

If Bama defeats UGA, then things could get dicey for Oregon with the Texas win looking even better. Will the Committee take a 1-loss Oregon or Texas over a 1-loss Georgia? I have my doubts. Bama as the SEC champ will be in for certain.

 

TCB, defeat UW and be the Pac-12 champ and I do think that Oregon will be in the final 4. The Committee has shown a lot of respect to the Pac-12 and Oregon this season and I hope will take into consideration a 9-game conference schedule.

 

GO DUCKS! GO (Athens specie) DAWGS!