Oregon Will Not Pay Top-NIL for QBs: Should They?

[FishDuck Article]

What should Oregon's strategy be with NIL and 2023 QBs?

 

Oregon Will Not Pay Top-NIL for QBs: Should They?

FISHDUCK.COM

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I was reading on another Oregon site and received some disconcerting news: Oregon is not in the top NIL bidding for the best of the 2023 quarterback recruits.

 

[Notalot]

The Ducks are loaded when it comes to President Schill, AD Mullens and staff, boosters, and the football operations and coaching staff. UO Football is commited to winning.

 

None of us knows how the new era of NIL, the transfer portal and college football alignments and supervision will play out over the coming years. Right now recruiting, especially QB recruiting of 5-star talent, is wide open. NIL money will likely influence the final destination of some top QB's.

 

I am comfortable now that the UO football leadership will lead the nation as an elite program by making the necessary adjustments to recruit the talent needed to win at the elite level. 

 

It is not clear exactly what that will take as the environment is dynamic and in flux. Factors external to the team such as conference alignments, media contracts with the resulting income, and the goverance of college football play into the futures of QB recruiting and NIL.

 

One sure thing is that the Supreme Court's decision opening the compensation of NCAA athletes results in long-term changes resembling the compensation of professional athletes. The direction has been set.

 

How this plays out is yet to be seen.

Edited June 6, 2022 by Notalot

[florida duck]

Its a sticky mess we have to walk through.With unlimited funds, aka texas a&m, just my opinion, go for it. I believe that even Uncle Phil has limits.

 

Even more he understands that a 5 star qb or running back, certainly doesnt mean they will be successfull. l. Seastrunk with a #32 national rating or 20 Thomas Tyner.

 

Yet we can find Diamonds in the rough,  T Dye 595,  Herbert 659, even l James 464.    So mabye we dont need the top 5 star qb, 

 

We do need a coaching staff that can find  and coach these players that want to play.  Not the ones that want pay for play.

Edited June 6, 2022 by Smith72
Spacing

[Duck 1972]

If Bo lights it up like I think he will the portal along with the QBs that need to be coached up would be a strategy that sounds ok to me. We've done it before and can do it again. I know I don't want prima donnas even if it might mean we're not going to be playing for nattys every year. There are just to many variables.

[1Funduck]

I am torn but leaning to being conservative with NIL money. 1) If these kids can sit out or walk away from a team after getting their pay day, then I side with holding back the cash. 2) There are only so many kids that are top tier QB's. Their families surely want a pay day, but I believe an education and NC's are part of the equation as well.
 

Jackson State will get some, but they aren't going anywhere without $50-$100 million payroll. This leads me to my 3rd point that I am using to lean on. 3) Transfers. Bo Nix comes to mind. aTm is going to load up on 5 star QB's that get paid but don't play. These kids will have their pressure points and will bolt. They will have their NIL money and Oregon will get a freshly humbled kid who is good enough but stands behind 4 QB's.

 

Charles, I agree with you about the importance of QB's, but NIL is going to have a negative affect on the locker room. It's a matter of time. Said QB shows up in a sic $100,000 new car and Joe lineman shows up in a 1978 Datsun 210. Lineman is protecting QB but gets to go back to the frat house is a puff of blue smoke.

 

Believe me, it Will have a measured effect. It's reality, NIL, but so are the coming consequences. Therefore, I am in the camp of limited pay to play. Smart QB's are more important than athletic ones. Developing talent is not a lost cause. Its the slower road, but I believe a 6'5" 4.0 kid that is high 4* will produce consistently great teams. It will take 2 years, sure, but he won't be full of himself and the team will play for him just the same.

 

I'm not saying 5* wouldn't have same locker room success, but I don't believe it's the begin all end all to a winning NC caliber team. Alabama is loaded with high 4* and Georgia is as well. Be careful of the absurd NIL for QB's and RB's. 

[Kurt Rambis]

On 6/6/2022 at 3:22 PM, 1Funduck said:

Be careful of the absurd NIL for QB's and RB's. 

Two other points I see regarding some of the extreme NIL figures we see. 

 

First (and this plays out constantly in the pros), there will always be some team that is willing to throw crazy money at a player.  Some free agent QB might get offers of $20 million a year from the Panthers, $22 million from the Bears, and $24 million from the Seahawks - but then some clown owner will come in and throw $35 million at him.  Smart teams look at the overall picture, not the outliers, when considering what to pay.

 

Second is that I wonder how long it's going to take before college teams are throwing expensive freshmen into games before they're ready, because they just invested a million bucks in Jamal so Jamal is damn well going to play.  Now, Jamal can't read coverages yet, so he ends up doing a crash-and-burn the way DJ Ukelele did at Clemson (no way I'm going to get that spelling right - you know who I mean).  Now he's very possibly going to lose his job to another hot-shot incoming 5-star.  

 

How many careers will that ruin, the way Tim Couch was ruined by the Browns and Joey Harrington by the Lions before they were ready?  Or how many smart teams will pull reclamation projects off the scrap heap in the transfer portal and end up with a great starter (who then may threaten to do the transfer portal unless he's paid)?

 

Still a LOOOOOONG way to go until we know how all the NIL stuff will eventually play out.  

[Charles Fischer]

A uniform comment here is, “we have to see how it plays out,” and that is obvious.

 

But this is an issue that Oregon is dealing with at this very moment, as a five star quarterback is announcing his intentions in the next two weeks. It is certainly affecting the viability of the Ducks remaining in contention for quarterbacks in the 2023 recruiting class.

 

What strategy should Oregon implement in your view?

[Duckman]

Top-three QB recruits from historical classes is shown below. The takeaway for top-ranked QBs is that for every home run like Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud, there is a bust like Davis Mills or Hunter Johnson.  And, a bunch of middling guys like D.J. U, Spencer Rattler, Jayden Daniels, Shea Patterson, etc.  Bo Nix could be considered middling at this point but I am hoping for a transcendent 2022...lol.

 

Bottom line, I would rather the Ducks use their NIL budget on elite HS talent at projectable positions - OL, DL, LB, etc.  And, for more proven QBs in the transfer portal.

 

2020

1. Bryce Young

2. D.J. U

3. C.J. Stroud

 

2019

1. Spencer Rattler

2. Bo Nix

3. Jayden Daniels

 

2018

1. Trevor Lawrence

2. Justin Fields

3. JT Daniels

 

2017

1. Davis Mills

2. Hunter Johnson

3. Tua

 

2016

1. Shea Patterson

2. Jacob Eason

3. KJ Costello

[1Funduck]

I'm hoping a sense of calm sets in and pay is more like the NFL. Sure you can have a NIL kid come in but pro rate it. $200,000 blue-chipper gets paid like the NFL. They get paid weekly during the season. You don't stay on the roster then the remaining contract is void.

[1Funduck]

I might add, these kids do have preferences to where they want to play. NIL is a powerful factor but not the only one. Our salesman, DL and team, has to sell the other benefits of Oregon besides just NIL. 

[idontrollonshobbas]

This year we have Bo Nix with Thompson and Butterfield on the pine.  No need to pay THIS YEAR.

 

Next year, different circumstances, different strategy.   NIL dollars may go further in the portal anyway.  Especially at QB where the risk is high.....why not kick the tires and go get the next Cam Ward/Bo Nix who has a track record.

 

If all of our guys flop this year and leave, then next year you spend all of your NIL money on the 5-star high schooler and let him rip from Day One. 

[Haywarduck]

Our qb situation is much like our head coach situation. We don't go after the top head coach, throw money at him, while expecting him to solve all our problems. We go after a skilled coach and support him, we make head coaches!

 

Same thing with qb's we have never gone after the top qb's, until recently. Ty and Jay are two of the most highly rated qb's we have ever had. The missing ingredients, development, support, and scheme, which equate to support the qb! The fix, one guy, Dillingham is the key to the whole process getting back on line.

 

I personally think we were going down the wrong lane with Cristobal. His road was to rely on getting the best talent, and then talk big and look bigger while doing the opposite. At qb you need to develop, support and give them a scheme to highlight the most aggressive offense possible. He didn't develop, didn't use the support on the field, and certainly didn't put an aggressive offense on the field.

 

Fortunately Cristobal has left us with the supporting characters to help a qb. We now just need development and scheme, and we must might have the guy to help us with that. 

 

With Dillingham putting a disruptive offense on the field is the way to, again, become the place where qb's come and become successful, and  create top draft picks. It can be Nix or either of the young guns, just get somebody out there who can use the weapons, and has developed into what he can use in his scheme.

 

If this happens the money shouldn't go to paying top NIL money to high school qb's. Dillingham is making less than Moorhead last season, and is only up for $25k raises over the next two years. If KD builds the O in Oregon again, through our qb ,then he should get double the salary over the next few years. He is the key to the whole qb process.

 

If KD develops the guys on the bench right now, more elite high school, and transfers will fight to become the next Mariota, Herbert, and which one of these guys on our bench. NO big money to high school kids, make them want to be the next great Oregon qb, much like Lanning wanted to be the next successful head coach at Oregon. The stage is all set, I am excited to see who is going to be the next great one!

 

 

[EastBayDuckDad]

Right now the hype and NIL paydays seem to be going to the 5* QBs who maybe are more important to the college game than other positions. But what does every 4* and 5* kid really want? To get a hug from Roger Goodell on the big stage day one of the draft and put that franchise hat on. That now means elite edge players, OTs and CBs as much as QBs. NIL money pales in comparison at that level. DL and Georgia put a ton of defensive players in this year's 1st round and won a NT with a decidedly 2-3* QB,  who while an absolute gamer, will likely never sniff the NFL.

 

My point is that blowing the NIL bank on a 5* QB right out of high school doesn't necessarily pencil. Defense still wins championships and spreading NIL around may be a better approach. The QB transfer portal has paid dividends (Burrow at LSU) when other talent is there to complete the puzzle. It strikes me that Oregon under DL and the current leadership is doing just that.

[Charles Fischer]

On 6/6/2022 at 8:20 AM, Duckman said:

I would rather the Ducks use their NIL budget on elite HS talent at projectable positions - OL, DL, LB, etc.  And, for more proven QBs in the transfer portal.

I would agree; get an experienced QB in the portal, but the problem there is that it destroys the QB room and the recruiting of high school quarterbacks.  I mean, who would want to come to Oregon if you know the Ducks will go get a portal QB every year or two?

 

No easy solutions...

[Charles Fischer]

On 6/6/2022 at 8:22 AM, Wrathis said:

If a high school player is all about the benjamins, then let them be a burden elsewhere...

I think that is an easy thing for all of us to say until we have a Jeff Lockie running the offense again...

 

        Remember the Alamo?

[Charles Fischer]

On 6/6/2022 at 8:27 AM, idontrollonshobbas said:

If all of our guys flop this year and leave, then next year you spend all of your NIL money on the 5-star high schooler and let him rip from Day One. 

That is hazardous to me, as this fall would have a completely different feel if we were depending upon an unproven, inexperienced Thompson versus Nix.

[Charles Fischer]

On 6/6/2022 at 8:30 AM, Haywarduck said:

If KD develops the guys on the bench right now, more elite high school, and transfers will fight to become the next Mariota, Herbert, and which one of these guys on our bench.

I would agree that this is the most preferred tactic, but it relies on a blockbuster year on offense, no injuries, etc.  Once the "Oregon Brand" is re-established, then it will not be as much as a problem, but for this year--it is.  (IMHO)

[Charles Fischer]

On 6/6/2022 at 8:47 AM, EastBayDuckDad said:

Defense still wins championships and spreading NIL around may be a better approach.

I am in agreement with that, but if you were a great QB who only has this one chance, and Oregon offers 500K over three years, and another school offers 2 million over the same time period....don't you have to go with the best chance to help assure your future?  I would not blame a QB for doing that...

 

My FishDuck Friends, I am really not trying to be argumentative, but simply demonstrate how complicated this subject is.

 

And of course we will blame the coach if it does not all go as we want...

[Drake]

My thoughts go to an example like Justin Flowe. He has a good year and he could be off to the NFL….really hope to see him dominate this year, but would be sad to see him leave.

 

Paying huge NIL $$$$ for a player that plays for one year under this scenario certainly doesn’t generate the “return” anticipated (not knocking down Flowe, just an example ). These types of scenarios will play out over the next few years and I hope will bring some sanity to how NIL is approached by each team. 
 

While the “big name” QB recruits will probably always generate more NIL revenue under the current system. There will definitely be problems in some locker rooms between the “haves and have nots”.

Young men with lots of cash…what could go wrong? Someone is probably writing a movie script as we speak reflecting this type of scenario. 
 

 A more sensible approach to the NIL payouts to be inclusive of all the players is what I would recommend if I had a voice inside of Division Street. 

 

Edited June 6, 2022 by Drake

[Haywarduck]

On 6/6/2022 at 9:07 AM, Charles Fischer said:

I would agree that this is the most preferred tactic, but it relies on a blockbuster year on offense, no injuries, etc.  Once the "Oregon Brand" is re-established, then it will not be as much as a problem, but for this year--it is.  (IMHO)

I don't agree, it relies on qb development, continued focus on recruiting, and development of the supporting cast, along with a scheme to get after it. These components are critical no matter who is our qb. These were sorely lacking over the last few years.

 

I was, and am one who didn't think it was critical we hired the best proven coach. We needed to hire somebody capable, and then provide the best support. That is always what we have done, and are again doing. This is what we have to, again, do at the qb position.

 

I think there are many Burrows, Brady's, sitting on benches, maybe even ours. There are also just great college qb's like Vernon Adams just waiting to transfer to a program like Oregon. We just need to focus on making sure Oregon is ready to make them great again. Chasing after the guy to fix our program has never been our way, and I don't see it now either.

 

Hearing we aren't spending big NIL money on a qb warms my heart, we are staying true to who we are! We are a program which makes great coaches, and qb's! We do it through hard work, and it is sustainable.

[Just Ducky]

 I to like a conservative approach. There are hundreds of examples of money not buying the best team. 

 

 Although the QB is the most important player on the team because he is the one starting every play and making the correct decision on the direction of the play. After the ball is snapped the importance of keeping him upright and having open receivers to get the ball to becomes critical.

 

 If your defense can’t stop the other team from scoring then your 5 star million dollar guy may not be the answer. Not sure we will see Nick or Kirby in a bidding war for one player.

 

 My point is you can’t put all the eggs in one basket. Our National champions every year are all examples of a well rounded teams. That recipe for success is the one I would use.

[idontrollonshobbas]

On 6/6/2022 at 9:00 AM, Charles Fischer said:

That is hazardous to me, as this fall would have a completely different feel if we were depending upon an unproven, inexperienced Thompson versus Nix.

Agreed.....which is why the portal is such a safety net.  Particularly at QB where projecting prospects is so difficult.  Oregon will always be able to attract solid QB talent through the portal and I trust KD and DL's player evaluation more than Cristobal's.  If they really like a 5 star HS QB, then I trust them to spend NIL money wisely.  Otherwise, I would rather pay for elite playmakers that project more easily

[WiseKwacker]

Doggone it! This NIL deal is turning out just like I KNEW it would. Initially, the notion got lots of support (even bipartisan political support, if you can believe that) as a way to give all these poor college-age kids some much-deserved cash to reflect their contributions to the big-time college sports money-making machine. What a noble, democratic undertaking. And, in a few cases, a college booster has stepped up to offer an equalized payment plan for an entire team. But, predictably, the big deals mostly go to a couple of the most ballyhooed high school kids at the most glamorous positions--principally, quarterbacks. In contrast, the pro sports leagues have figured it out by structuring salaries to require that you demonstrate your value on the field for a couple of years before you can really demand "the big bucks."

 

Okay, enough of the old codger rant. We have what we have in NIL.  Hearing about this stance from Duck Central--thank you, Charles, for the posting--I really like it. Even though it often seems like funds from the high roller boosters are unlimited, they aren't. I'd rather spread the available dollars out among numerous incoming players than to give it all to one "bonus baby."

 

Thinking about conversations within Duck Central, I think of Dan-Lan's most recent experience with a national championship team. He had J.T. Daniels, who surely would've been a big NIL guy coming out of high school (if the NIL ruling had been in place at that time.) And, then he had Stetson Bennett, who ultimately beat out Daniels despite the fact that he started out as a walk-on.

 

Anyway, I like what the Ducks have apparently decided to do.

[Kurt Rambis]

On 6/6/2022 at 5:13 PM, Charles Fischer said:

If you were a great QB who only has this one chance, and Oregon offers 500K over three years, and another school offers 2 million over the same time period....don't you have to go with the best chance to help assure your future? 

I've stopped trying to figure out how these kids make their decisions.  Before NIL, you'd think decisions would largely be driven by fit-with-scheme, opportunity, academics, and chance to win.  And I'm sure that was a lot of it.

 

But then you would hear kids talking about liking a college because that's where their girlfriend is going, or loving the uniforms, or having watched previous players at that school growing up, or the weather, or the campus, or the crowd at the spring game, or how they "really prioritized me"...

 

I'm going to assume some kids are just going to be mercenary - Michigan offers $1.5 million while Alabama offers $1.6, so Roll Tide.  Others may look at where friends are going, who's getting drafted from that team, TV exposure, conference rep, coaching staff, "family feel," and a bunch of other stuff (including everything listed above). 

 

If everything is a bidding war for the Ducks, that really increases the chances of getting a lot of the mercenaries.

[MTdux]

Excuse me if the following question has been asked/answered: I haven't seen it...

If we choose to pay the big bucks for a 5 star, what guarantee do we have that he won't choose to go somewhere else (for even more money) after one productive year? 

Both player and university need to have some skin in the game: The school is making a financial commitment along with player-development; the player should be expected to stay at that school for an agreed-upon number of years. 

 

Doing otherwise would set the school up to be a college football cuckold.

 

I don't like what NIL is doing to college football, but if we are to live with it, I think that all schools should be limited to a total cap across the entire team and that the coaching staff should be able to decide if they want to sink all of their money into a QB, or spend some of it for a hot edge rusher, or lineman or safety. And that total cap should be an amount that most schools can afford: This would preserve the chance for parity.

[Charles Fischer]

On 6/6/2022 at 9:26 AM, Haywarduck said:

Hearing we aren't spending big NIL money on a qb warms my heart, we are staying true to who we are!

That is true until our average QB decides to play "hero-ball" before halftime.  Or you have an average quarterback that you are trying to win with, and you get beat by a great QB at another school. 

 

All of this will be forgotten as we fume at the coach...  (Again, this is hard stuff IMHO!)

 

 

[Mike West]

On 6/6/2022 at 8:09 AM, Kurt Rambis said:

Now, Jamal can't read coverages yet, so he ends up doing a crash-and-burn the way DJ Ukelele did at Clemson (no way I'm going to get that spelling right - you know who I mean).  Now he's very possibly going to lose his job to another hot-shot incoming 5-star.  

And that 5* QB isn't much better.  I watched both struggle this spring.  And we also have our 5* that isn't lighting it up like we've seen at Bama and tOSU.

 

Statistics are saying develop a lower rated QB.  Why waste money on a maybe, when you can mold a definite?

 

Bo Nix was also a 5*.  

 

I've just mentioned four 5* QBs that aren't even Heisman worthy.  And another 5* left tOSU for Texas ( and had garnered a 7 figure NIL deal).

 

Does it really make sense to throw massive dollars at potential, instead of identify and develop capable athletes that will shine if you develop their respective skills better suited to your system?

 

 

[Mike West]

On 6/6/2022 at 9:13 AM, Charles Fischer said:

I am in agreement with that, but if you were a great QB who only has this one chance, and Oregon offers 500K over three years, and another school offers 2 million over the same time period....don't you have to go with the best chance to help assure your future?  I would not blame a QB for doing that...

 

My FishDuck Friends, I am really not trying to be argumentative, but simply demonstrate how complicated this subject is.

 

And of course we will blame the coach if it does not all go as we want...

You can't blame the kids, until they demonstrate lack of effort.  Even the, they just might not truly be elite.

 

The NFL is the perfect laboratory.  We know most 5* QBs aren't elite.  

 

Stetson Bennet.  Darin Thomas.  Countless others.  Versus the four to five well known guys that flopped.  

 

I'm finding my four star guy with enough ability to be accurate on the "route tree".  I can develop that kind of talent because he's more likely to perform like CJ Stroud. Because he'll be hungry enough to want to be a guy like Stroud.

 

There are more than enough QBs like that out there.  

Edited June 6, 2022 by Mike West

[Haywarduck]

On 6/6/2022 at 9:58 AM, Charles Fischer said:

That is true until our average QB decides to play "hero-ball" before halftime.  Or you have an average quarterback that you are trying to win with, and you get beat by a great QB at another school. 

 

All of this will be forgotten as we fume at the coach...  (Again, this is hard stuff IMHO!)

 

 

I will cheer on the above average qb, giving an extraordinary effort, with an amazing supporting cast. It could be argued this may be what we will see if we play sc in the championship game. I will take our qb's effort and our staff working to build something exceptional, while others look to buy it all. 

 

I have to trust in the formula we have used in the past, and hopefully will in the future. Why we went with AB in the transfer portal, an average at best qb, I will never know. It is time to move onward and forward, while back to our past formula with an attitude!

[Steven A]

On 6/6/2022 at 8:56 AM, Charles Fischer said:

I mean, who would want to come to Oregon if you know the Ducks will go get a portal QB every year or two?

Have faith in yourself that you can keep the transferee on the bench.

[Charles Fischer]

On 6/6/2022 at 10:40 AM, Steven A said:

Have faith in yourself that you can keep the transferee on the bench.

Tell that to the coaches!

 

[David Marsh]

To be blunt... No Oregon shouldn't at this time be paying top dollar for a QB recruit. Too many of them don't amount to anything and it would cost the program too much. 

 

I usually take the side of better to recruit and develop and dive into the transfer portal... But if you are going to have to pay in the millions for a quality QB might as well shop the transfer portal for a known quantity. Sure you might only get a year or two out of them but the likelihood of them being good is also higher.

 

I say Oregon should keep taking a swing at the top recruits but don't break the bank for them. 

 

Find some hungry 3 stars that have gone under the radar... Especially with all these bidding wars right now. 

 

The other thing I would like to mention about Oregon's nil is that they have really seemed reluctant to get into bidding wars over recruits, at least this early in the cycle. Probably later in the cycle they'll start to bid but right now getting ina bidding war will only serve to increase the price. 

[FG Lumber]

Could it be that our coaches are quite satisfied with the QBs already on campus and are keeping their powder dry in order to use it further down the road.  

[Charles Fischer]

I love the feedback here, and it has crystallized my thinking a bit more.  I am favoring the Portal route for a starter, and loading the bench with 3-Star QBs with upside.  Find out among them who can play, and perhaps become "The Man" sometime down the road?  That way we pay NIL for a proven, experienced QB, and are still developing newbies?

 

Although this transfer, Dakota Prukop

was not a sure thing...

[Duck 1972]

We are in uncharted waters with perils on both sides. To me to be a FB player you have to have confidence in your abilities to compete.

 

That's why if I'm a freshman recruit I wouldn't not go to a school just because they may bring in somebody else to fight against by the portal or next year's recruiting class/es

 

Another reason not to be worried about using the portal with HS recruits is everybody is going to use it if they don't believe the QBs they have are ready or haven't improved. Just look at the Pac this year, 7 new portal QBs this year.

 

Also we are going to have to understand that we are not going to be able to get 5* QBs in this new world just like we couldn't compete in years past.

 

Do we honestly believe none of the superstars of the past weren't getting paid and probably took the highest bidder. I sure don't.

 

I guess I would rather take the high road and do the right thing and get the players that want to play at Oregon and take care of all our players and not because we will pay the most money. Even if that means we won't get the predicted superstars.

 

In most of the posts above there are examples of the nonsuperstars winning even a natty. That would be sufficient for me. I would want to earn it and not buy it, which I think is doable.

 

[Nevada Dawg]

Kirby Smart gave an interview recently about NIL and recruiting. The essence of his post is that if the first thing a recruit (or his parents) ask about is NIL, he immediately starts to wonder if he is chasing the wrong kid. His thinking (I think) is that a money first approach suggests a "me first" attitude that is incompatible with the effort to building great team chemistry.

 

Case in point. Georgia and Texas are reported to be the most likely landing spots for 5-Star QB Arch Manning. When it comes to  NIL, Smart has said that Texas will  undoubtedly mention higher NIL payouts than Georgia. This will not be a bidding war and the Manning family has even said that they want this to be an old-fashioned 1970s type recruitment with NIL not being  a major consideration.

 

As for Arch (who admittedly may be atypical among  QBs these days ), he says he wants to play college football, but that simply being a college kid  in a great environment  is very important to him as well. As Austin TX and Athens, GA are both great college environments, we still don't know which one Arch chooses. But he  is precisely the kind  the kind of recruit that coaches love as they stress player development and the  long term over  immediate NIL payouts. And also life beyond  football I might add.

[Duck Fan 76]

BLUF: Oregon should NOT engage in the NIL pay-to-play scams.  The current wild west of NIL has some serious risks that bigtime UO boosters are likely aware of.  If you are wondering what I'm talking about you can read a quick explainer on what I believe the central issue is here.  

 

What does the federal gift tax have to do with NIL?  Possibly everything if the NIL deal isn't totally above board.  The key wording on the gift tax is what is defined as a gift, namely "Any transfer to an individual, either directly or indirectly, where full consideration (measured in money or money's worth) is not received in return."  You can check the IRS rules here.  

 

If a student athlete gets an NIL deal that is considered fair, meaning their name, image or likeness is purchased for a fair market value then everything is above board, and we are meeting the intent of the Supreme Court's ruling.  If a booster or any interested party artificially inflates the NIL payment significantly above fair market value to pay a student athlete to commit to a school, then we are in the region of pay-to-play which is not currently legal or allowable by the NCAA.

 

Big deal, right?  Who is going to call the IRS on something like this anyway?  How about Alabama's football program that is seeing the ground shift under their dominant recruiting program?  How about major UO boosters that want no part in a bidding war for athletes? 

 

But it's not a gift, right?  So, the tax doesn't apply, and the IRS can't do anything anyway, right?  Well, that totally depends on how the IRS decides to view these NIL payments.  The IRS knows that pay-to-play isn't legal and the NIL contracts all include verbiage that specifies the money is for NIL work from the student athlete.  So, this is a small potato's issue that the IRS will not respond to.  Maybe?  That remains to be seen to be honest but one thing you can bank on with the IRS, any coordinated attempt to actively evade taxes is viewed as a criminal proceeding. 

 

If you make a mistake with federal taxes, you are facing fines.  If you and a few of your lawyer friends get together at a private club and discuss ways to send payments to student athletes to get them signed to your favorite university team...  That's a no kidding conspiracy and opens the door to at a minimum an audit or possibly even a federal warrant to look at your NIL collectives’ books.  If you pay $100k for a signed photo of a freshman QB prospect and do nothing with that photo, you may have some serious explaining to do to convince an IRS accountant that it amounts to "full consideration (measured in money or money's worth)." 

 

If you pay for 10 of those photos for multiple student athletes and can't make a case that you are operating a legitimate business that purchases NIL items from students then the IRS has uncovered "indicators of fraud" and they can choose to hand the case to the US attorney who can then determine if your collective engaged in a conspiracy to circumvent regulations and submitted false documentation to the IRS to substantiate your false dealings with the NCAA and its rules.

 

Are we talking about prosecuting student athletes?  That's the good news story here because the students aren't the entities here facing potential criminal charges.  No, the students are skirting the edges of the NCAA's policy and likely the NCAA isn't going to react harshly to some student athletes that saw this as how the system now works.  If they pay the NIL money back, then most likely they NCAA will just write them a letter that says, "don't do that again".  Further, once their NIL deals are nullified then the NCAA will remind them that the transfer portal is available to them if they so choose.

 

Who gets in trouble?  Mostly rich white guys that looked to use some of their million-dollar entertainment budget to buy a little bit more joy in their life by paying top recruits to sign with their favorite university team.  I don't see anyone coming to their defense anytime soon.

 

To be fair I'm a huge believer in the NIL reforms, I think it’s only fair that these students get a cut of the profits the NCAA has monopolized for so long.  The paid with a world class education line only gets you so far when you consider how much burden the NCAA places on student athletes.  How many student athletes can swing the demands of an Engineering program on top of the sports schedule?  I think a student that wants to shoot ads for Kendall Ford should be allowed to and enjoy their local celebrity status. 

 

Should we be paying 7 figures to student athletes to sign them with UO?  Probably not, I'd only be in favor of that if all the university football programs across the country that received public funding were spun off as non-profit's and used at least some of their resources to also pay the student athletes from the past for their lifetime of medical bills.

 

  

[Charles Fischer]

Duck Fan 76....that is a pretty darned impressive first post.  Please share your thoughts often and WELCOME!

[DanLduck]

Oregon must not get in a bidding war for an unproven high school qb.

We want players who want to play at Oregon, not just make bank.

 

I know many kids (with help from parents, maybe) will hold out for all they can get. Why not. If someone will pay you, do it. But there is still so much more to college football. 

Getting an education, being prepared for going pro, and most important, having a team and coaches you like being around.

 

Even 5* players are not guaranteed to go pro, especially qb's. The smart ones will know this. They will go to the school that best fits them.

 

There will always be very good qb's in the portal if needed. We should get the best we can without paying big bucks, and use the portal as needed.

[DanLduck]

Total player development. 

 

That's Lannings sales pitch. Come to Oregon and develop into a young man.

 

Learn football skills. Become the best player you can be. Get a great education. Make lifetime friends with some of the best athletes in the country, across all sports.

And learn from a team of dedicated coaches who will love you like family.

 

And doing so, NIL $$ will follow. 

Maybe even go pro.

Most importantly, be prepared for life.

[Haywarduck]

The indicator of our recruiting which I loved was bringing on Kawika Rogers from Kapaa, Kaui. Nobody really knew about the guy, but we wanted the player nonetheless. 

 

Reminded me of what the Patriots did with their 1st round pick. They picked a guy the pundits didn't think was going until much later. 

 

The Oregon Football Program needs to listen to their heart and mind when evaluating talent. Pundits, and all the camps kids go too will be yelling and screaming names. The Lanning team needs to keep it's blinders on and pick up the Mariota's, and Chungs and make men and football players out of them.

 

Also agree with Smart assessment of those players whose primary focus is NIL money. Kind of like the first date when the first question is what do you do for work?

 

 

[Charles Fischer]

On 6/6/2022 at 4:04 PM, Haywarduck said:

The indicator of our recruiting which I loved was bringing on Kawika Rogers from Kapaa, Kaui.

THAT is a great example, as we may have a real gem in this player.

[2002duck]

On 6/6/2022 at 7:22 AM, 1Funduck said:

Their families surely want a pay day

It would be interesting to see how much (if any) money those paid through NIL would give to their parents. When the student-athletes sign a contract for their NIL the money goes directly to the player, and they have zero obligation to give money to anyone. I'm not entirely sure how payments will be made, or put on reserve if requested, if and when the player is still 17 years-old. I'm guessing many players will help their parents out if they are in low-income households.

[Duck 1972]

When In the pros a player makes it and gets his first big deal it seems a lot of them disappear for a long time. I wouldn't put money on it but I bet the same thing will happen in CFB.

 

Earlier Duck Fan 76 mentioned Fair market value and I believe this is the kind of young man that we're looking for and will find. Not somebody who thinks; I want as much as I can get.

 

I like the Mac Joneses of the world who took their time and put team first, worked hard, learned, bided his time and took it when he was ready.

 

As Hayward has mentioned its "The Oregon Way".

[2002duck]

I think the Ducks should always use a metric with something like...

 

1) Determine the ten teams who have the best end of season rankings based on a three year average.

 

2) Figure out as best as possible how much money in NIL contracts these ten teams gave out.

 

3) Hit the computer button thingy and hit enter.

 

4) Give Oregon players the average of what these top ten teams gave.

 

5) If necessary give more than the average.

 

6) Never give less than the average.  

[David Marsh]

On 6/6/2022 at 9:48 AM, MTdux said:

Excuse me if the following question has been asked/answered: I haven't seen it...

If we choose to pay the big bucks for a 5 star, what guarantee do we have that he won't choose to go somewhere else (for even more money) after one productive year? 

At this point the boosters providing the nil deal so lock the athlete into getting the money only if they stay and play at their school. 

 

Obviously schools can't lock students in with contracts but boosters with nil can. 

[chrisjenn99]

I say hell no.  Of all the great QBs to grace Oregon's lineups, none were highly ranked.  I'd rather not have any Prima Donna's!

[1Funduck]

We have had lightening in a bottle only twice. 2001 was incredible but an anomoly. 2010 and 2014 was an anomoly as well. 

 

Consistent top 10 rankings will need top 10 recuiting rankings as well. This is just a fact.

[Duckman]

On 6/7/2022 at 8:18 AM, 1Funduck said:

We have had lightening in a bottle only twice. 2001 was incredible but an anomoly. 2010 and 2014 was an anomoly as well. 

 

Consistent top 10 rankings will need top 10 recuiting rankings as well. This is just a fact.

I'm not sure I agree.  Oregon was consistently a top-ten program for seven years from 2008-2014.  Basically, the time period in which Chip Kelly had influence on the program.  Not what I would consider a flash in the pan.  What is more alarming is the steep drop-off from 2015-2021.  In that context, the success in 2019 likes like an aberration.  Given the increase in talent levels (based on recruiting rankings), I view weakness in 2020 and 2021 as a further indictment of the previous coaching staff.  

 

End of season college football rankings as follows:

 

2021: 22nd

2020: 25th

2019: 5th

2018: NR

2017: NR

2016: NR

2015: 19th

2014: 2nd

2013: 9th

2012: 2nd

2011: 4th

2010: 3rd

2009: 11th

2008: 10th

2007: 23rd