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1Funduck

Clearly in Left Field...The PAC Retains All Schools

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So, let's get creative with some absurd ideas. What happens now that the PAC is about to get Whacked? There is an outlier here. ESPN. Hear me out.

 

USC and UCLA are wanting to bolt for more cash. Basically $100 million of it. But, what happens if ESPN, which needs a West Coast market, comes a calling with a monster deal? Grab the likes of Baylor, Oklahoma State and 2 other Texas schools, and get your Monster contract. Can we get $80-$100 million per school if we get the Texas market added? Does OSU, and the like, take a bit of a financial hit due to logistical obscurity? Is this even possible? 

 

Ramblings of a discombobulated Duck....

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I like your creative thinking, 1Funduck. You make a good point that ESPN needs a West Coast market.

 

I think creative thinking is what will save the PAC 10-12 or whatever, if it's to be saved. It's not time to give up yet, and giving in to three big conferences just yet is giving in. My opine. 🙂

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my vote: Oklahoma St, Baylor, TECH and Kansas(Basketball) and KC market. 

 

But I am a TECH Fan. 

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The Big-10 has played their hand.  They said they are waiting on a decision on Notre Dame to determine if they are going to expand further.  it is really easy to read between the lines here.  
 

Translation - We really want ND and don’t want an odd number of schools.  

 

If ND says no, they stay at 16. 
if ND says yes, they need one more team. Likely candidates are Oregon, UW, Stanford, or UNC. 


Oregon and UW expressed interest as a package and BIG essentially said no thanks.  If they wanted to get to 20, that would have been an easy yes. 
 

I think our hope is that we are No 2 on the board after ND and ND says yes.  Not to sure that either one of those are correct.  
 

The only other option to stay relevant is a merger between the ACC, Big-12, and PAC-12, taking the largest schools with the best TV markets:
 

Something like FSU, UNC, Miami, Clemson, Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Utah, Texas Tech, Okie State, Houston, Cinci….

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I don't see Oregon going anywhere by themselves. 

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On 7/1/2022 at 12:12 PM, GeotechDuck said:

Oregon and UW expressed interest as a package and BIG essentially said no thanks.  If they wanted to get to 20, that would have been an easy yes. 
 

I think our hope is that we are No 2 on the board after ND and ND says yes.  Not to sure that either one of those are correct.

The B1G didn't really say no thanks but more like... Wait a minute and we'll see. 

 

Adding Oregon and Washington may be their desired outcome but until Notre Dame makes their decision the B1G doesn't want to make too many moves. 

 

If Notre Dame says yes I think they add Oregon and Washington right away and probably pick Stanford. 

 

As Stanford and Notre Dame play yearly right now as well. It's probably also the best single team that is located in the bay area in terms of market share. 

 

Cal is pretty uninteresting in that regard. 

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On 7/1/2022 at 12:31 PM, David Marsh said:

The B1G didn't really say no thanks but more like... Wait a minute and we'll see. 

 

Adding Oregon and Washington may be their desired outcome but until Notre Dame makes their decision the B1G doesn't want to make too many moves. 

 

If Notre Dame says yes I think they add Oregon and Washington right away and probably pick Stanford. 

 

As Stanford and Notre Dame play yearly right now as well. It's probably also the best single team that is located in the bay area in terms of market share. 

 

Cal is pretty uninteresting in that regard. 

Or the scary version....they take ND and then pick up Stanford and say 18 is good.  

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ND is the big fish because they will bring a lot of revenue. 

 

ND has an agreement with the ACC. Based on ND playing a partial ACC schedule there is a clause that if ND joins a conference it has to be the ACC.

 

So, the lawyers are going to have to justify why ND can break that agreement. 

 

It's also my understanding that any ACC school who leaves the ACC before 2035 has to pay a $50 million fee. 

Edited by DazeNconfused
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On 7/1/2022 at 12:35 PM, DazeNconfused said:

ND is the big fish because they will bring a lot of revenue. 

 

ND has an agreement with the ACC. Based on ND playing a partial ACC schedule there is a clause that if ND joins a conference it has to be the ACC.

 

So, the lawyers are going to have to justify why ND can break that agreement. 

 

It's also my understanding that any ACC school who leaves the ACC before 2035 has to pay a $50 million fee. 

That $50M is not an issue, as the $100M a year revenue sharing is double what ND makes in a year.  They will make that up after the first season. 

To your point, can lawyers get it done.  I don't see the money as an issue.  

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On 7/1/2022 at 12:34 PM, GeotechDuck said:

Or the scary version....they take ND and then pick up Stanford and say 18 is good.  

Stanford does get them enough by themselves. 

 

Oregon and even Washington are worth far more money. 

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On board with you David.  If ND says yes then its a green light for Oregon, Washington, and probably Stanford.

 

if ND says no then it's Oregon & Washington for sure and possibly two others to get to 20.  There is no way that they only take Stanford.   From an eyeballs standpoint that makes no sense.

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On 7/1/2022 at 12:46 PM, Quackerbacker said:

On board with you David.  If ND says yes then its a green light for Oregon, Washington, and probably Stanford.

 

if ND says no then it's Oregon & Washington for sure and possibly two others to get to 20.  There is no way that they only take Stanford.   From an eyeballs standpoint that makes no sense.

So my only question then is why do they have to wait for a decision by ND to decide if they are going to add the UO / UW package?   Clearly the ND decision has some impact on if they take and find the UO /UW package valuable?  

 

Any ideas here?

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^ Exactly.  If that were the case they would have said yes to UO/UW already.  I now sense we are are B1G’s fall back plan if the SEC does a numbers grab.

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If they don't want 20 teams, but 18, (and they have 16 now) they wait on ND.  If ND joins, they need one more and we are among the candidates.  If ND stays independent, (which is what I would guess) then B1G stands pat and we're out?

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On 7/1/2022 at 12:50 PM, GeotechDuck said:

Clearly the ND decision has some impact on if they take and find the UO /UW package valuable?  

I'm a little confused why they need to wait on ND to be honest. If you look at the programs that bring in the most revenue ND is one of the top programs but Oregon and Washington are pretty high in that list over all. 

 

The combo of Oregon and Washington would outweigh ND. Beyond that I read there are some fears that Oregon and Washington might not expand the overall revenue enough for everyone but might shrink it slightly for everyone. 

 

That could be possible but I think Oregon and Washington would more than pay for themselves. 

 

I think right now it's a tactic being used by the B1G to slow down and evaluate their choices before just diving in. ND is a big fish and beyond that ND is unlikely to make a decision too quickly. 

 

Everyone is scrambling right now. Also if Oregon and Washington both leave the PAC then there is no hope for the PAC and the PAC is super dead. 

 

Which then leads to other questions like... What about Cal, Oregon State and Washington State and Stanford? They aren't the big ticket programs but could preserving the pac-8 be worth it in an already massive super conference? 

 

I don't have answers when it comes to that just throwing out thoughts. 

 

 

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It is odd that they want to hear from ND, but ND is forced to join the ACC if they want their football team to join a conference or they have to pay the 50 mil exit fee.  I can't believe the ACC has a TV contract until 2036.  That was absurd.

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On 7/1/2022 at 12:53 PM, AllOregon said:

^ Exactly.  If that were the case they would have said yes to UO/UW already.  I now sense we are are B1G’s fall back plan if the SEC does a numbers grab.

No, they don’t want to set off an implosion of the PAC without perfect information on ND.  My guess is they have 3 in mind and are just waiting to see if the fourth is needed or not

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Guest Axel

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see much hope for the survival of the Pac-12. It's ironic that the two hated rivals of Oregon and Washington need each other right now to become a package deal for the Big Ten. US&C and UCLA do need West Coast schools to mitigate their travel and scheduling challenges. 

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Sorry......but if ND agrees it will probably not be Oregon. 

 

Cal, Stanford or Washington all fit better if my guess is correct. 

 

They all have more powerful academics. larger schools, very large markets and don't present a situation in the NIL era in which a rich person who is extremely supportive can outbid the rest of the league for talent. 

 

Even USC or UCLA, now members of the Big 10 might veto Oregon membership. They want the southern Cal recruiting for themselves. Weakening Oregon only helps them. Having Oregon in an expanded Big 12 does that. Playing Stanford and Cal is an easier and closer road game for the LA teams. Neither recruits well in CA. 

 

As a USC fan I don't see what USC did positively in the long term. The travel is going to kill them.......but.........they sure screwed the rest of the conference......particularly, Washington, Oregon, Cal and Stanford. The other pac 12 members really never belonged in a power 5 or can make a good fit with the Big 12 easily. 

 

IMO Oregon is going to have to make lemonade out of lemons and join the Big 12......if they can......and since most of the markets in an expanded BIG 12 are growing much faster than the midwest.....might end up just fine.  

 

 

 

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On 7/1/2022 at 2:11 PM, fred flintstone said:

Sorry......but if ND agrees it will probably not be Oregon. 

 

Cal, Stanford or Washington all fit better if my guess is correct. 

 

They all have more powerful academics. larger schools, very large markets and don't present a situation in the NIL era in which a rich person who is extremely supportive can outbid the rest of the league for talent. 

 

Even USC or UCLA, now members of the Big 10 might veto Oregon membership. They want the southern Cal recruiting for themselves. Weakening Oregon only helps them. Having Oregon in an expanded Big 12 does that. Playing Stanford and Cal is an easier and closer road game for the LA teams. Neither recruits well in CA. 

 

As a USC fan I don't see what USC did positively in the long term. The travel is going to kill them.......but.........they sure screwed the rest of the conference......particularly, Washington, Oregon, Cal and Stanford. The other pac 12 members really never belonged in a power 5 or can make a good fit with the Big 12 easily. 

 

IMO Oregon is going to have to make lemonade out of lemons and join the Big 12......if they can......and since most of the markets in an expanded BIG 12 are growing much faster than the midwest.....might end up just fine.  

 

 

 

I don’t like this take, but I agree with it. If ND joins, Stanford is the team the BiG is adding. 

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I know one thing I am going to enjoy USC and UCLA getting their butts kicked.

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What isn't mentioned, the Pac 12 owns the Rose Bowl rights.  I'm not sure if those end in 2024 or move with UCLA?

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By staying in the Pac 12 (if there is anything left of it) Oregon can be the Oklahoma of the past 5-7 years. Win an easy conference and slide into the playoff. The only problem is Oklahoma got beat down every time because they weren’t battle tested. But, at least they had a chance. It would depend on how they’re ranked in the pre-season.
 

I know I stated earlier that Norte Dame needs to join the ACC to survive, but after looking at their situation critically, they’re the only team that has made the playoff without the burden of playing a conference championship game. If they join the Big 10 they’re likely to have long waits between playoff appearances. 

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On 7/1/2022 at 2:29 PM, GeotechDuck said:

I agree with this 100%.  If ND joins, Stanford is the team the BiG is adding. 

well maybe but Stanford has a small viewership and terrible attendance.

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On 7/1/2022 at 5:11 PM, fred flintstone said:

Sorry......but if ND agrees it will probably not be Oregon. 

 

Cal, Stanford or Washington all fit better if my guess is correct. 

 

They all have more powerful academics. larger schools, very large markets and don't present a situation in the NIL era in which a rich person who is extremely supportive can outbid the rest of the league for talent. 

 

Even USC or UCLA, now members of the Big 10 might veto Oregon membership. They want the southern Cal recruiting for themselves. Weakening Oregon only helps them. Having Oregon in an expanded Big 12 does that. Playing Stanford and Cal is an easier and closer road game for the LA teams. Neither recruits well in CA. 

 

As a USC fan I don't see what USC did positively in the long term. The travel is going to kill them.......but.........they sure screwed the rest of the conference......particularly, Washington, Oregon, Cal and Stanford. The other pac 12 members really never belonged in a power 5 or can make a good fit with the Big 12 easily. 

 

IMO Oregon is going to have to make lemonade out of lemons and join the Big 12......if they can......and since most of the markets in an expanded BIG 12 are growing much faster than the midwest.....might end up just fine.  

 

 

 

I will say this. As a football fan I look forward to the USC/Ohio State conference championship games. I have bothered to watch a Ohio St/Sacrificial Lamb Big 10 championship game in years.

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