WOW, No. 4 .... OK, the First Results are In and Which Do You Prefer, a Rose Bowl Bid, or College Playoff Berth?

[Steven A]

With the Ducks ahead of OSU, if both win out, hopefully the committee follows their protocols and Oregon’s H2H win trumps (small “t”) their possible strength of schedule advantage at the end of the year. Of course, a 2 L Big 10 champ eliminates the ESPN/Herbstreit bias, and a 1 L Big 12 champ would be nice also.

 

Of course, the Big 12 having 10 teams and the Big 10 having 12 should count for a loss regardless based upon their math skills, or lack there of.

 

Then, we have to see if an undefeated Cinderllannati makes it as bone thrown to the gang of 5.

 

So, besides having the Ducks go 12 -1 leading up to the Bowl/CFP season, do you prefer a Rose Bowl appearance or a CFP appearance?

 

In the past there has been debate about being ready for the CFP and whether a Rose Bowl appearance is better than “an exposure” CFP loss.

 

For me it is the CFP as I think that is/should be the goal every year with the Rose Bowl a consolation prize. Kinda like the Huskies hoping for the Sun Bowl each year, and settling for one of ESPN’s Gasparilla, First Responders or Armed Forces Bowls.

 

Plus, I think recruits want to be on CFP teams/contenders as opposed to Sun Bowl type teams (see above).

 

Bottom line for me is that this year I am turning off my Strawberry Alarm Clock so as to not wake-up from my Green and Yellow Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test Cocktail and a 15 - 1 record ..... #15 being the back-to-back Georgia wins to start the 2022 season!!!!

[DuckHeart]

Easy answer.   Playoffs over any bowl game every single time.
Bowls are consolation prizes for top program.  Oregon is a top program.

[30Duck]

I definitely want Oregon to be back in the Playoffs. Now, more than ever before it's important to be in the Championship mix. 

[30Duck]

Interesting, 1 L No,2 Alabama and No.4 Oregon  control their destinies, at No.6, undefeated Cincinnati does not. 

[deschutesduck]

CFP all the way... still a lot of football to be played between now and then though.

[GODUCKS15]

Well isn't that interesting. Makes every game seem even more important. The target on our backs just got bigger.

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

Oklahoma still has two top 15 opponents left on their schedule and likely a championship game. I wonder how far that will carry them if they win out?

[DuckPhan19]

On 11/2/2021 at 4:40 PM, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

Oklahoma still has two top 15 opponents left on their schedule and likely a championship game. I wonder how far that will carry them if they win out?

I would say past Oregon and into top 4. What about an undefeated P5 team in Wake with games v UNC and Clemson and a pretty crappy acc? I say probly not. 

[kirklandduck]

The rankings seem appropriate at the point in the season as they're following past precedent for head-to-head matchups.  CFP appearance > NY6 bowl appearance.   Even if it's a loss, being in the playoff represents the notion that you're right up there for a CFP championship.  Tremendous for recruiting as well as the financial windfalls.

[Vandownbytheriverduck]

I love the week to week improvement, the resilience, the depth, and the absolute heart of this team. They are still on an upward trajectory with an unknown ceiling. 

The ranking of four surprises me because, to date, the Ducks clearly haven’t played their best ball and have not looked like a championship team. 
 

I happy that the committee saw the value of a head to head road win. Now the Ducks just have to win out and get good enough to play with the other three. 

[criticalduck]

We can only hope Georgia is the real deal and takes Alabama out of the equation....SEC>all other conferences ever...I'd love for the Ducks to play Georgia either first or second in the playoffs! I only hope (and pray) that MC continues with the current coaching strategy of win and win big against all challengers! Huck the Fuskies and win the week!!

[David Marsh]

I didn't see that coming. 

 

Looks like the committee has forgiven the Stanford loss. Bad refs and no Moorhead.

[DuckPhan19]

On 11/2/2021 at 4:54 PM, DuckPhan19 said:

I would say past Oregon and into top 4. What about an undefeated P5 team in Wake with games v UNC and Clemson and a pretty crappy acc? I say probly not. 

Also safe to say tOSU controls its destiny and would get past Oregon with season ending wins against mich state, Michigan and a Big10 championship win. So we need both OK and tOSU to lose a game.

[Steven A]

I'm shocked.  It also means that if we win out with Colorado type games, we can stay in the top 4.

 

Also, remember when everyone said how stupid it was to schedule OSU.  Well substitute that win with any other team and we don't crack the top 10.

[30Duck]

On 11/2/2021 at 5:08 PM, Steven A said:

It also means that if we win out with Colorado type games, we can stay in the top 4.

 

Also, remember when everyone said how stupid it was to schedule OSU.  Well substitute that win with any other team and we don't crack the top 10.

 

Agree with both.

[DuckPhan19]

On 11/2/2021 at 5:08 PM, Steven A said: It also means that if we win out with Colorado type games, we can stay in the top 4.

H2H only goes so far. A 1-10 team who beats Georgia ain’t goin over 12-1 Georgia. If tOSU runs it with wins over MSU and MI then a Big10 champ they leapfrog UO. So does OK if they win out IMO. Wake not so much with the weak ACC. But we don’t control our destiny. My two cents at least.

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

Pac12 refs: “Sweet, our conference has a team in the top 4”

 

Also Pac 12 refs: “Let’s see how bad we can hose them and keep them from the playoffs”.

[Dr Hilarius]

On 11/2/2021 at 4:22 PM, Steven A said:

Of course, the Big 12 having 10 teams and the Big 10 having 12 should count for a loss regardless based upon their math skills, or lack there of.

true dat

[HappyToBeADuck]

So many solid comments and feelings

 

Playoffs.

 

Win out Ducks, win out big. 

 

You proved to everyone, except SEC top dogs that you can go on the road and beat a top dog. It is your ace in the hole.

 

I expect tOSU to win out. Their will be people on the PC that when push comes to shove say:

 

But Oregon, regardless of schedule, went into the shoe and beat tOSU. They settled the argument on the field. We cannot take that from Oregon. They beat a perennial play off team in their house.

 

Neither ND, Cincinnati or WF will climb over a one loss BIG Champ, tOSU. Win out tOSU. That should help the Ducks. 

 

Nothing but love and support for this Duck team. They have earned it, IMHO......

[jrw]

Makes me nervous. One game at a time is my mantra.

[Jon Joseph]

PLAYOFF - 1 month free recruiting infomercial - big help to Pac-12 media negotiations!

 

You want to play in an exhibition game or for a championship?

 

If you want to go Rose Bowl instead of the PO,  there is zero reason to schedule Ohio State + UGA OOC.

[C J]

On 11/2/2021 at 5:41 PM, jrw said:

Makes me nervous. One game at a time is my mantra.

I’m at one play at a time at this point. We have seen tremendous inconsistency. We need to win one play at a time from here on out.

[DurangoJim]

On 11/2/2021 at 6:45 PM, C J said:

I’m at one play at a time at this point. We have seen tremendous inconsistency. We need to win one play at a time from here on out.

At least the inconsistency has been less inconsistent the last two games. Oh, wait - not sure that makes sense.

 

How about  “play every play like it’s your last and make it count!”

[Mike West]

On 11/2/2021 at 4:59 PM, criticalduck said:

We can only hope Georgia is the real deal and takes Alabama out of the equation....SEC>all other conferences ever...I'd love for the Ducks to play Georgia either first or second in the playoffs! I only hope (and pray) that MC continues with the current coaching strategy of win and win big against all challengers! Huck the Fuskies and win the week!!

Georgia IS the real deal.  Bama is out( and Auburn just may take out the Tide this year anyway).

 

Cinci won't be able to shake an unfortunate struggle  against Indiana ( took too long to take over that game- Indiana is horrible this year). Besides, Cinci is third in either of the Big Ten divisions at best.

 

Oklahoma should get in.  They'll go undefeated.  Ohio State should get in... They'll run the table.

 

Wake.  Not enough defense to impress.  They still play NC State( better than Wake in my opinion).

 

Notre Dame? No. See Cincinnati.  

 

Everyone probably worries about Bama.  I don't.  Georgia is going to win the Natty, and Bama is going to experience a rare double digit defeat in Atlanta.  

 

My question is will Cristobal finally ignite the afterburners?  There  isn't a team in the conference that can slow them down.  I think Moorhead (correctly) recognizes Brown is lethal throwing cross patterns and post patterns ( toss in a few fade routes to keep the CBs honest and teams will back off our top notch WR unit). 

 

I still want to see the LBs cover people instead of eye balling the QB B all day.  And can DeRuyter seal the edge please?  

 

Some fantasy inn there of course.  

 

I see Georgia, tOSU, Oklahoma, and ( depending on Cristobal) our Beloved Ducks.  It's his to lose... And he knows it.  

 

Boy...I write to much (lol).

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 11/2/2021 at 9:19 PM, Mike West said:

Georgia IS the real deal.  Bama is out( and Auburn just may take out the Tide this year anyway).

 

Cinci won't be able to shake an unfortunate struggle  against Indiana ( took too long to take over that game- Indiana is horrible this year). Besides, Cinci is third in either of the Big Ten divisions at best.

 

Oklahoma should get in.  They'll go undefeated.  Ohio State should get in... They'll run the table.

 

Wake.  Not enough defense to impress.  They still play NC State( better than Wake in my opinion).

 

Notre Dame? No. See Cincinnati.  

 

Everyone probably worries about Bama.  I don't.  Georgia is going to win the Natty, and Bama is going to experience a rare double digit defeat in Atlanta.  

 

My question is will Cristobal finally ignite the afterburners?  There  isn't a team in the conference that can slow them down.  I think Moorhead (correctly) recognizes Brown is lethal throwing cross patterns and post patterns ( toss in a few fade routes to keep the CBs honest and teams will back off our top notch WR unit). 

 

I still want to see the LBs cover people instead of eye balling the QB B all day.  And can DeRuyter seal the edge please?  

 

Some fantasy inn there of course.  

 

I see Georgia, tOSU, Oklahoma, and ( depending on Cristobal) our Beloved Ducks.  It's his to lose... And he knows it.  

 

Boy...I write to much (lol).

 

 

NO YOU DON'T!

[Duck 1972]

It's always out of our hands. Their is an East Coast bias. The rankings have 7 SEC teams, 6 Big10,  5 Big 12 and only 4 teams total from the whole West Coast (counting BYU as WC) Why isn't Utah or even UCLA ranked when there are teams at 5/3 Wisconsin and Miss St.

 

I know the PAC eats itself every year

I wonder if we played 8 instead of 9 league games would help. It sure seems like it would. I heard the new Commissioner say we were going to make that happen. Hope it's soon

[DuckFan93]

We may have to really treasure this moment because this just painted a even larger target on our backs and you know how the Pac is beating each other up.    UW, WSU, Utah and tosu, none of them is easy unless the coaches and AB bring their A game 4x in a row...

[JDuck]

Worried now how hard UW, WSU, UT, and the Beefers will bring it.  Every week they'll all want to be the one to take us down.  Mathematically most of those teams are still in it to win the Pac and go to the Rose Bowl? We gotta go off every week 

[Haywarduck]

Way to early to believe we are getting into either. There is too much football to play. The Rose and Playoffs are just the best options right now. We could play out of those options really easy, and the meltdown which would follow. 

 

I think the best way to think about it is a football isn't a normal ball. Most balls are round and bounce predictably. A football is egg shaped and you have no idea where it will end up until it stops bouncing and rolling, and that is what the season is still doing.

[Duck 1972]

Well said

[Jon Joseph]

On 11/2/2021 at 9:51 PM, Duck 1972 said:

It's always out of our hands. Their is an East Coast bias. The rankings have 7 SEC teams, 6 Big10,  5 Big 12 and only 4 teams total from the whole West Coast (counting BYU as WC) Why isn't Utah or even UCLA ranked when there are teams at 5/3 Wisconsin and Miss St.

I know the PAC eats itself every year

I wonder if we played 8 instead of 9 league games would help. It sure seems like it would. I heard the new Commissioner say we were going to make that happen. Hope it's soon

 

We've got the whole CFB world in Puddles hands. Ranked above undefeated OK and Cincy? Go 12-1 and the Ducks is in. Oregon is ranked ahead of 2 undefeated teams and 1 at least, Cincy, cannot catch up SOS wise.

 

Keep on winning Fresno and Ohio State.

 

This is not like 2014 when TCU/Baylor tied for a title and were left out for an FSU team the Ducks destroyed.

 

Win out and as Herbie said tonight, Oregon is in.

 

Ohio State will defeat MI ST and MI. 

 

Bama at 2 tells the story. Bama defeats UGA in the SEC champ game and both are in. Which is fine because a 12-1 OH ST is in and Oregon won't be jumped by OK or Cincy.

 

Bama takes an L vs UGA and probably, Cincy and not OK is in?

 

You schedule big time games like at Ohio State and win and you are in. But Oregon has to run the table and not with just close wins.

 

The Ducks SOS, with SMU and Houston not being ranked will be better than Cincy's and I do not see even a 13-0 OK, its best OOC win being Nebraska, jumping Oregon.

[Duckpop22]

I'm afraid I have to turn in my man card. I actually shrieked a little (when I looked back at the moment) when I saw us in the #4 slot! What an opportunity to smell the rarefied air one more time. The Stanford loss is forgiven as the committee understood our difficulties without a offensive coordinator in the building.

 

That said, it is Husky Week and we must remain focused on the mange. After my squeaky moment I refuse to think about the CFP until next week.

 

LET'S GO DUCKS!

 

(cfp over rose bowl all day.)

[toketeeman]

At least the Ducks will be able to reminisce when they watch the playoffs on TV in January.

[nw777b]

Yep.

 

I'll have the Duck's first Natty win on my DVR watching them win again and again in January!

[Duck 1972]

I so hope you are right. To win the natty is on my bucket list

[Jon Joseph]

On 11/2/2021 at 9:51 PM, Duck 1972 said:

It's always out of our hands. Their is an East Coast bias. The rankings have 7 SEC teams, 6 Big10,  5 Big 12 and only 4 teams total from the whole West Coast (counting BYU as WC) Why isn't Utah or even UCLA ranked when there are teams at 5/3 Wisconsin and Miss St.

I know the PAC eats itself every year

I wonder if we played 8 instead of 9 league games would help. It sure seems like it would. I heard the new Commissioner say we were going to make that happen. Hope it's soon

 

Because Utah lost to BYU and San Diego State. UCLA now has 4Ls and 1 was to Fresno State at home. I think the Pac-12 is ranked exactly like it has played OOC and in conference.

[Duck 1972]

Sorry on the UCLA having 4 losses but still 3 of them were to the Ducks, Utah and Fresno St. What about the comparison of Miss St, Wisconsin and Iowa 

Jon do u believe there is no East Coast bias?

[Steven A]

On 11/2/2021 at 11:22 PM, Duckpop22 said:

I'm afraid I have to turn in my man card. I actually shrieked a little

I'm sure you are in a large focus group.

[Glenn]

Interesting question, but possibly a moot one... seems that our Ducks have a solid trajectory to the CFP playoff, but not so much for the Rose Bowl.  Although that sounds odd, let me explain... if we win out, we should be in CFP - plain and simple.  If we do not win out, we will be a two loss (or worse) team in the P12 North, and could be in jeopardy of not making the P12 championship game.  

 

So, let's say we lose one more game... if we lose to Wash, WSU or OSU, we would be a two-loss team tied with the the team we just lost to - and thus, are out.  The only 'good loss' would be to Utah - assuming we beat the 3 P12 North foes - then we make the P12 Championship Game, most likely to face Utah again, giving us the only real path I see to the Rose Bowl.  

 

I guess there may be a complicated multi-team tie possible for P12 North where we also have a shot, but those scenarios hurt my head to think about.  So, for my simple logic, it's CFP or bust - GO DUCKS!

[Jon Joseph]

On 11/3/2021 at 11:55 AM, Duck 1972 said:

Sorry on the UCLA having 4 losses but still 3 of them were to the Ducks, Utah and Fresno St. What about the comparison of Miss St, Wisconsin and Iowa 

Jon do u believe there is no East Coast bias?

 

I believe there is some bias but if there was that much bias Oregon would not be at 4.

 

The Committee rankings IMO accurately reflect the way the Pac-12 has played this season both out of conference and in conference. There is no doubt that Oregon was given considerable credit for the W in Columbus that negated a bad loss at Stanford.

 

I think it is certainly fair to note that as of this week the Committee loves the B1G W and except for the Mountain West doesn't think much of the G5.

 

I find it somewhat ironic for Cincy fans to beef when they are leaving the G5 for the P5 specifically to be better able to qualify for the playoff. Cincy has a SOS of 100. Play that kind of schedule and you are lucky to be ranked at 6, the highest a G5 team has ever been ranked by the Committee.

 

[PittDuck]

On 11/2/2021 at 5:43 PM, Jon Joseph said:

If you want to go Rose Bowl instead of the PO,  there is zero reason to schedule Ohio State + UGA OOC.

Jon, you nailed it there!  

[Jon Joseph]

On 11/3/2021 at 11:37 AM, Duck 1972 said:

I so hope you are right. To win the natty is on my bucket list

 

After Tuesday night Oregon's odds to win the PO, as calculated by The Athletic, went from 50-1 to 30-1, 5th best odds to win it all.