Is It Possible for Ducks to Reach CFB Playoffs?

[Pennsylvania Duck]

ESPN published an interactive tool to test how different hypotheticals impact a team’s chances of making the College Football Playoff.

 

Simulating all the ways Oregon can make the College Football Playoff...check it out to see what our chances are.

 

Simulating all the ways Oregon can make the College Football Playoff

SATURDAYOUTWEST.COM

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We took ESPN's Allstate Playoff Predictor for a spin to see all the ways Oregon can make the College Football Playoff.

 

[Mic]

Anything's possible, I suppose.  But a lot of cards are gonna have to fall in place, not the least being a 12-1 season and a Conference Championship before they even get a consideration.  I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

 

Any media and committee members wanting to freeze Oregon out have their Ace card in their pocket: that embarrassing loss in Atlanta.  I am just so skeptical of the NCAA, the Playoff committee and the media giving Oregon any leeway because of that.  I sure hope I'm wrong!

Edited October 14, 2022 by Mic

[Steven A]

On 10/14/2022 at 3:57 PM, Mic said:

I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

Since I don't have a farm, I'll bet anyone's.

 

Go Ducks!

[Mic]

I'm still struggling with getting my head around all this talk about a playoff bid after what happened to them in Atlanta.  

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy some people are actually considering the possibility - it just boggles my mind how fast and how convincingly Oregon has managed to bounce back after what the Bulldogs did to them in front of a national audience.  

 

There just can't be many (if any) other teams in the land that could come back from a beating like that.  Speaks volumes about this team and this coaching staff, imo. 

[2002duck]

fivethirtyeight.com says Oregon has a 70% chance of making the Playoff if we win out.

[DUCKED]

On 10/14/2022 at 4:07 PM, Mic said:

I'm still struggling with getting my head around all this talk about a playoff bid after what happened to them in Atlanta.  

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy some people are actually considering the possibility - it just boggles my mind how fast and how convincingly Oregon has managed to bounce back after what the Bulldogs did to them in front of a national audience.  

 

There just can't be many (if any) other teams in the land that could come back from a beating like that.  Speaks volumes about this team and this coaching staff, imo. 

If you’re going to lose it’s always better to lose early, even if you get clobbered.

[Pennsylvania Duck]

This is another article on the CFB Playoff topic. Oregon trending upward.

 

Stock Up, Stock Down on College Football Playoff Hopefuls

BLEACHERREPORT.COM

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We've made it to the midway point of the college football season. There are still a lot of games left to be played that will shape the College Football...

 

[Just Ducky]

 I will be ecstatic if the Ducks can somehow get a rose bowl bid. For even that to happen the cards will have to fall our way.

 

 I am just happy that we have a coaching staff that shows a lot of promise and the players seem to be buying in. Not quitting at WSU was a sight we didn’t see under marinoO. 

 

 After that first game I will be very happy with a 10 win season.

[EOFan]

The week after the Bulldog game I mentioned that I believed that the Ducks would be 11-1 after the Battle in the Neighborhood!

 

I missed on their Beaver opponent, I think I had them at 11-1 after that game. 

 

Sticking with my prediction for our Ducks and after they win the Pac-12 Championship game they will be selected for the playoffs! 

 

Go Ducks!!!

[debbieduck]

Oregon must win out. 
 

USC must win out until we play them.  Including beating Notre Dame

 

Alabama must lose one game before losing to Georgia.

 

That  gives us a chance.  
 

If all that happens, and Clemson loses a game. we’re in for sure 

 

To be honest UCLA has easiest path to playoffs I think.  They beat us they will go undefeated 
 

 

 

Edited October 15, 2022 by debbieduck

[HappyToBeADuck]

It could be possible but a tall order for sure. A 12-1 Duck team would not be a lock for the CFP.

 

A number of teams would have to play there way out of consideration. Bama, t OSU, Clemson, OK State and Georgia would have to have 2 losses for the Ducks to jump them.

 

Fun to think about but 10 wins would be a great first year. Along with a top 10 recruiting class

[DazeNconfused]

On 10/14/2022 at 5:36 PM, HappyToBeADuck said:

 Bama, t OSU, Clemson, OK State and Georgia would have to have 2 losses for the Ducks to jump them.

I don't totally agree with you.

 

If the Ducks win out, they will be on a 12-game winning streak. The only teams with a longer winning streak than 12 games are going to be unbeaten.

 

Sure, the Ducks 49-3 loss to Georgia looks bad, but if they rebound to win 12 in a row you can only put so many one loss teams ahead of them. A 12-game win streak is going to cancel out the bad Georgia loss. 

 

I'll give a one loss Bama, Georgia and Ohio St or Michigan the nod over a one loss Oregon and it's 12 game win streak. Thats 2 SEC and 1 B1G teams with 1 loss who are in over a 1 loss Oregon.

 

But Clemson not so much or Okie St or TCU. If the Ducks play an unbeaten USC in the Pac-12 title game that will be a heavily weighted win against a Top 5 team. Even if the Ducks don't beat an unbeaten USC in the Pac-12 Champ odds are they will play a 1 loss USC or UCLA in a Top 10 matchup at the worst. 

 

Clemson will be facing a weak opponent in the in the ACC Championship such as UNC, Duke or Pitt. Clemson would have to be unbeaten to get in over a 1 loss Oregon. I don't see them losing the ACC title game to a scrub or being on a 3-5 game win streak and getting in over an Oregon team on a 12-game win streak. 

 

The same goes for Oakie St and TCU who play this weekend. They will need to win out and go unbeaten. I don't see either as a 1 loss team on a 4-game winning streak jumping a 1 loss Oregon on a 12-game streak. 

 

There is a ton of football left to play. The odds are we get 2 SEC teams and 1 B1G team as always - Clemson if they win out will be the 4th team. 

Edited October 15, 2022 by DazeNconfused

[Dr Hilarius]

On 10/14/2022 at 4:07 PM, Mic said:

it just boggles my mind how fast and how convincingly Oregon has managed to bounce back after what the Bulldogs did to them in front of a national audience.  

I will keep reminding peeps that GA lost to AL 41-24 and then beat AL barely a month later for the 2022 natty. 

 

If ever there was a real reason to give a team a mulligan is when that team is playing its first game w a brand new coaching staff and QB against the reigning champs. 

 

tOSU lost to Northwestern the first game of the season and won the Natty later against the Ducks. 

 

I will argue that a 12-1 OR team doing a rematch against GA would be a MUST-SEE tv.

 

Mark my words… a 12-1 Duck team is in the CFP .

[debbieduck]

On 10/14/2022 at 7:16 PM, Dr Hilarius said:

I will keep reminding peeps that GA lost to AL 41-24 and then beat AL barely a month later for the 2022 natty. 

 

If ever there was a real reason to give a team a mulligan is when that team is playing its first game w a brand new coaching staff and QB against the reigning champs. 

 

tOSU lost to Northwestern the first game of the season and won the Natty later against the Ducks. 

 

I will argue that a 12-1 OR team doing a rematch against GA would be a MUST-SEE tv.

 

Mark my words… a 12-1 Duck team is in the CFP .

Alabama list both their best receivers and key defensive players before they played Georgia.  

[Lrod]

Oregon would have to absolutely take all of their remaining opponents apart convincingly.. and USC would have to have been undefeated to even be considered..Rose is the realistic option

[HappyToBeADuck]

Lrod makes a good point that the Ducks need to take all their opponents apart on the field. No close games or squeakers. Kick butt in everygame.

 

DazeNconfused made a great point that a 12-1 Duck squad, on a 12 game win streak would probably jump a 1 loss Clemson, TCU or OK State. As long as they dont struggle against lesser opponents. Clemson has long term credibility in the bank with CFP Committee. Do the Ducks?

 

Also, the SEC has a scenario that could arise and complicate the 4 playoff teams. If Vols beat Bama, Georgia beats the Vols and then Bama beats Georgia (hope not) in SEC Title game then you could have:

    Bama 12-1 (SEC Champ) In

    The Dawgs 12-1 In

    Vols 11-1 win over Bama ?

 

If the Vols play Georgia tough it will sit on their resume better than our 49-3 beat down.  I despise Bama but it might be in OBD's best interest for Bama to beat the Vols.

 

Remember all CFP decisions are tilted toward the all mighty SEC.

[The Kamikaze Kid]

To me, there are way too many possible scenarios to even contemplate at this point. Major upsets always seem to happen to dramatically shape the playoff landscape. Just win baby! Then let the rest sort itself out.

[Mic]

On 10/14/2022 at 7:16 PM, Dr Hilarius said:

Mark my words… a 12-1 Duck team is in the CFP .

That's a mighty bold prediction, Dr. I just don't know....?

 

I hope you won't be disappointed if the Ducks finish 10-2 with a bowl win or even 9-3 with one.  I mean, this is Lanning's 1st year with a whole new staff.  It would be a monumental task for them just to make the Playoffs.  First things first, Dr.  

[Washington Waddler]

      Nothing wrong with dreaming so long as your not sleep walking through the schedule. One step at a time.

[MDuck]

Is there a year in CFP history where a 1-loss Pac12 champion wouldn’t have made it in? I think any 1-loss Pac12 champ would have made it every year. The problem is that the Pac12 champion most seasons has had multiple losses.
 

Every single year the other top teams will also fall. To be undefeated is rare!

 

If Oregon wins out they will be in the CPF (99% sure). But there is a lot of football to be played and for Oregon to win out would be impressive.

Edited October 15, 2022 by MDuck

[Pennsylvania Duck]

Derek Peterson: No, the Pac-12's College Football Playoff hopes aren't dead yet

 

More likely than not, we’ll be sitting at the end of the season with one or two unbeaten teams and a number of one-loss teams

who can and will be picked apart in every which way because that’s what happens just about every other year.

 

That makes these remaining six weeks for the Pac-12 important, not meaningless. What the Pac-12 has lost is its margin, not its life.

 

Peterson: No, the Pac-12’s College Football Playoff hopes aren’t dead yet

SATURDAYOUTWEST.COM

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The Pac-12 has lost is its margin with Utah's win over USC, not its College Football Playoff life.

[debbieduck]

On 10/15/2022 at 9:22 AM, MDuck said:

Is there a year in CFP history where a 1-loss Pac12 champion wouldn’t have made it in? I think any 1-loss Pac12 champ would have made it every year. The problem is that the Pac12 champion most seasons has had multiple losses.
 

Every single year the other top teams will also fall. To be undefeated is rare!

 

If Oregon wins out they will be in the CPF (99% sure). But there is a lot of football to be played and for Oregon to win out would be impressive.

I would put a 1 loss SEC team in ahead of a 1 loss PAC 12 team.  Even if SEC has an undefeated team in already.  
 

That’s why I think UCLA is the last chance for a playoff team. Until Saturday they is.  

[CalBear95]

Even if the Ducks beat UCLA, Utah, and USC I don’t see any path to the CFP.  The game against UGA basically guaranteed this.  Two SEC teams for sure, one B1G and probably the B12.  

That’s why the NCAA tournament is so great.  A really good team could get blitzed in an opening game but if they play well enough going forward they get an invite and have a shot at a title.  The tournament allows for a team’s growth over the course of a season whereas with only four spots in CFP that becomes impossible.  
 

I’ll be really curious what a move to 12 teams does in terms of scheduling as while the UGA game likely precludes the Ducks this year, the game clearly was a huge growth point for the team.  If they win out it’s not a signal of a weak PAC but rather that the Ducks have gotten better each week of their season and aren’t at all the same squad they were in September

 

Would be a lot of fun to see what kind of damage they could do in an expanded tournament 
 

[Pennsylvania Duck]

On 10/21/2022 at 9:53 PM, CalBear95 said:

I’ll be really curious what a move to 12 teams does in terms of scheduling as while the UGA game likely precludes the Ducks this year, the game clearly was a huge growth point for the team.  If they win out it’s not a signal of a weak PAC but rather that the Ducks have gotten better each week of their season and aren’t at all the same squad they were in September

 

Hi CalBear95. I was just on a site that projected what a 12 team playoff could look like based on rankings after 7 games.

See what you think. You're right, scheduling would need to change. Click on image to enlarge chart.

 

[Nevada Dawg]

I'm with Debbie Duck: It is an undefeated UCLA or bust for the PAC-12 this year as far as playoffs go. My prediction: Bust after the Ducks throttle the Bruins tomorrow. Lanning, of course, wants to win em all, but  he'll take a first year trip to the Rose Bowl as a sign of a stupendous first year (as well he might).

[Mike West]

I'm really hoping OBD run the table and face/ defeat tOSU again, but in the  Rose Bowl.

 

It would take Michigan blowing out the Buckeyes again, and an undefeated Clemson to make that happen.

 

If it does, that would be an awesome outcome after being exposed as a "pretender" early in the season.  Not to mention, back to back victories over the most marquee team available would be a statement the college football nation would not ignore. 

 

13-1... redemption...giving tOSU  a second loss, but this time on the grandest stage we could acquire after that horrible loss: priceless 

 

One can only dream.

[Pennsylvania Duck]

Can the winner of No. 10 UCLA vs. No. 9 Oregon make it to the College Football Playoff?

 

If UCLA wins this game, it will absolutely be in the conversation for a spot in the College Football Playoff, and there should be little argument against it.

 

A case for Oregon is harder to make, even if it wins this game against UCLA, simply because of the Georgia loss at the start of the year.

The path for Oregon to get into the conversation is certainly more convoluted, but it still might be there.

 

Can the winner of No. 10 UCLA vs. No. 9 Oregon make it to the Playoff?

DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM

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When the winner emerges between No. 9 Oregon and No. 10 UCLA on Saturday, are we going to be saying that they have a path to the CFB?

 

[Pennsylvania Duck]

Maybe it was a bit of peer pressure from a rowdy Oregon contingent on the set of ESPN’s College GameDay Saturday morning,

but when Kirk Herbstreit was asked if the Oregon Ducks could make the College Football Playoff, see what he says in video...

 

 

[David Marsh]

Ole Miss went down today. 

 

The path to the playoff is appearing. 

 

Only one thing for the Ducks to keep on doing. Winning! 

[Desert Duck]

"Is It Possible for Ducks to Reach CFB Playoffs?"

 

Maybe. But what I do know for sure is that we play @ Cal next week.

Edited October 22, 2022 by Desert Duck

[Krsmqn]

I'd like to see significant improvement on defense, and special teams before declaring Oregon a Playoff contender. They could make it, but if they have weakness in 2/3 of the game (offense is rolling), then the elite teams will win. 

[David Marsh]

On 10/22/2022 at 4:54 PM, Krsmqn said:

I'd like to see significant improvement on defense, and special teams before declaring Oregon a Playoff contender. They could make it, but if they have weakness in 2/3 of the game (offense is rolling), then the elite teams will win. 

I'm more concerned about the defensive side of things. The special teams haven't been hurting us but the defense couldn't get off the field against UCLA. 

 

Thankfully we had that brilliant onside kick by special teams to steal a possession to give us a solid lead. 

[Krsmqn]

On 10/22/2022 at 5:11 PM, David Marsh said:

The special teams haven't been hurting us but the defense couldn't get off the field against UCLA. 

Yeah, I agree that defense should be the biggest concern, and special teams have improved (that onside kick!), however even DL said in his post game presser that improvement on special teams is still needed. (although he says that about everything ) 

 

There's that great article over on Fishduck.com, which was well written, about this subject. You'd like the author.

[DuckIt]

The defense didn't look pretty most of the game but how much of that was by design, in terms of the soft coverage?  It forced DTR to settle for everything underneath and their drives ate a lot of clock, only to result in FGs.  If that was the game plan, it worked.  I'm still waiting for DL to put his fingerprints all over this defense.  I'm still not sold on Lupoi.

Edited October 23, 2022 by DuckIt

[Krsmqn]

On 10/22/2022 at 5:24 PM, DuckIt said:

  I'm still not sold on Lupoi.

Who knows what happens behind the Green and Yellow curtain, but I'm sure DL plays a big part on Defense. The Ducks played well enough today, for sure. But as a playoff team? ... Oregon would need much improvement. Imagine then how elite Oregon would be. 

[Log Haulin]

On 10/22/2022 at 5:30 PM, Krsmqn said:

Who knows what happens behind the Green and Yellow curtain, but I'm sure DL plays a big part on Defense. The Ducks played well enough today, for sure. But as a playoff team? ... Oregon would need much improvement. Imagine then how elite Oregon would be. 

Oregon used bend dont break in a NC v. Auburn. Ended in a last second field goal. With this O-line, Nix, Bucky, Franklin...

 

I would love to compete this year. Oregon ran the bend don't break almost flawlessly tonight. Only surrendering 3's during the most crucial parts of the game.

 

Very well coached game in offense,  defense and special teams. By the time the pac title game arives, Ducks are going to be dam good. 

[Krsmqn]

On 10/22/2022 at 5:40 PM, Log Haulin said:

Oregon used bend dont break in a NC v. Auburn.

Same defense in 2014. Ohio State was better that year than Auburn in 2010. Oregon was better on offense too.

 

BDB defense doesn't win championships... Oregon fans know all too well.

[DuckIt]

On 10/22/2022 at 2:30 PM, Krsmqn said:

Who knows what happens behind the Green and Yellow curtain, but I'm sure DL plays a big part on Defense. The Ducks played well enough today, for sure. But as a playoff team? ... Oregon would need much improvement. Imagine then how elite Oregon would be. 

Hopefully, we won't have to imagine.  I want to see DL make it a reality.  Unfortunately, he may not have the dudes to run his ideal defense yet.  He needs more time.

 

I agree and would be nervous if the Ducks were to play in the playoffs today.  We would have to rely on our offense to outscore the other team.

[Krsmqn]

On 10/22/2022 at 6:01 PM, DuckIt said:

I agree and would be nervous if the Ducks were to play in the playoffs today.  We would have to rely on our offense to outscore the other team.

Right? ... And against an elite defense, who knows how Oregon would perform? Georgia? I would take a win in Vegas, and a win in a NY6 bowl. A great, but realistic way for DL to end his first year as HC.

[Just Ducky]

 From  what I saw today UCLA wins out until the Ducks beat them in the championship game for the second time and win the rest. Who knows. Things have to go just wright back east and the Ducks crack the top 4 ranking. 

 

 A real longshot..

[David Marsh]

On 10/22/2022 at 5:24 PM, DuckIt said:

I'm still not sold on Lupoi.

Lupoi and Prowledge are both co-DCs... I get the feeling everyone is still really learning how to work as a team on the side of the ball as a coaching staff. 

 

I'm sure Lanning is also torn in terms of how hands on he feels he needs to be for the defense. 

 

I would also like to say that I do believe the defensive side of the ball was pretty neglected under Cristobal after 2019. The last two years the defense hasn't been good enough. 

 

The only difference this year is that the defense really isn't being called upon to make a final stand at the end of the game to hold onto victory.

 

The offense is putting up plenty of points to help the defense out. 

[David Marsh]

On 10/22/2022 at 6:35 PM, Just Ducky said:

 From  what I saw today UCLA wins out until the Ducks beat them in the championship game for the second time and win the rest. Who knows. Things have to go just wright back east and the Ducks crack the top 4 ranking. 

 

 A real longshot..

And the PAC doesn't exactly get much respect these days. 

 

But the only thing Oregon has control over right now is just winning their games. If it happens that would be great but if it doesn't that's just the way things are... 

 

I have a feeling it is going to be 2 SEC teams plus Ohio State right now. The fourth spot is a wild card... And I wouldn't be totally shocked if another SEC team sneaks in. 

[DuckIt]

On 10/22/2022 at 3:18 PM, Krsmqn said:

Right? ... And against an elite defense, who knows how Oregon would perform? Georgia? I would take a win in Vegas, and a win in a NY6 bowl. A great, but realistic way for DL to end his first year as HC.

Our defense would tackle much better but probably still lose that battle to Georgia's offense.  As for our offense, they would put up points.  This isn't the same offense and not the same Nix.  We've seen him grow up in a hurry.

 

I think ANY defense would struggle to contain this dynamic, potent offense.  The way Nix is running this offense and running the ball, especially when the Ducks need a 1st down, he poses too many challenges for opposing defenses.

 

Since the WSU game, the Ducks have been beating their opponents by halftime.  And it would have held true for today too, had our D not been so soft and gotten one more stop.

 

If the Ducks can beat the Utes, I would consider this a winning season.  Anything beyond that would be extra gravy on top.  But hats off to DL for turning heads in his first year as HC.

[DuckIt]

On 10/22/2022 at 3:48 PM, David Marsh said:

The only difference this year is that the defense really isn't being called upon to make a final stand at the end of the game to hold onto victory.

If MariØ knew what he was doing and didn't have the offense take their foot off the gas, last year's team wouldn't have had to carry that burden.

Edited October 23, 2022 by DuckIt

[Pennsylvania Duck]

 ESPN staff: College Football Playoff picks after Week 8

 

Ducks starting to get noticed by national media...check it out

College Football Playoff picks after Week 8

WWW.ESPN.COM

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Find out who our reporters pick after Week 8 for the College Football Playoff.

 

[Pennsylvania Duck]

Oregon's win over UCLA puts College Football Playoff committee in a tough spot

 

If Oregon goes on to win the rest of the games on its schedule — which they are favored to do — emerging from the regular season

as a one-loss Pac-12 Champion with the lone mark on their record coming in Week 1 against the defending national champions,

I think they have a real case to get into the playoff.

 

They will have proved time and again that they are the best team in the Pac-12, and leagues better than the squad that traveled to Atlanta months before.

 

Oregon Football: Oregon’s makes case for CFP spot with win over UCLA

DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM

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Should the Ducks win out, their record as a one-loss Pac-12 Champion would be nearly spotless. How much would that one loss matter to the playoff committee?

 

[Mic]

On 10/22/2022 at 4:54 PM, Krsmqn said:

I'd like to see significant improvement on defense, and special teams before declaring Oregon a Playoff contender. They could make it, but if they have weakness in 2/3 of the game (offense is rolling), then the elite teams will win. 

Considering yesterday's game the Defense Lanning has Lupoi building is not (at least not at this time) predicated on stopping all scoring by the opponent but limiting them to scores that Oregon can over come.  For instance, those 3 FG's instead of TD's that UCLA had to settle for.  That's 12 points left on the table by UCLA.

 

And, if you consider Chip Kelly, that might be 15 possible pts if UCLA goes for 2 pts instead of the point-after kick.  O won by 15.

 

Lanning & Lupoi are conceding the underneath stuff to prevent the TD's,  counting on KD getting Oregon into the end zone and not having Lewis kick our way to points.  So far, its working.   Lanning said it in his presser "trading TD;'s for FG's is a winning strategy" or words to that effect. 

Edited October 23, 2022 by Mic

[Pennsylvania Duck]

Jon Wilner evaluates USC's College Football Playoff odds, resume, and more

 

Wilner's feeling is that because Oregon lost to Georgia and brand bias, USC would have the better chance to make it into playoffs.

This is assuming the teams win out from here on...

 

Jon Wilner puts USC above Oregon in Pac-12 CFB Playoff chase

TROJANSWIRE.USATODAY.COM

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Jon Wilner puts it plainly: Oregon’s 46-point loss to Georgia means #USC has the better playoff path from the #Pac12. That and much more inside:

 

[Mic]

Just in case there remains 1 lost should left among us that doesn't believe in such things as brand bias, I quote Jon Winner from the above article:

 

Wilner makes the point that “Also working in their favor, and never to be ignored: Brand bias.

“It exists, even in a space as objective as the selection committee’s boardroom. And you can bet your last dollar that one-loss USC, with Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams, would have oodles of support.”

 

Ergo, Oregon (or whomever) should just rollover in the Pac-12 Conference Title game to let USC go to the Playoff to represent our Conference?  No. Earn it Conference winner - whomever it should be.  Then let the 'objective' Playoff Committee show their biased hand to the rest of the country.