We've Gone From Risk Adverse Mario To Lanning's High-Wire Act Without A Net

[DazeNconfused]

Mario and his prevent offense was boring and kept us in tight games late that we should have already put away. Mario played the odds to be safe. 

 

Now we have Lanning's style of high risk decisions when the safe play is not a bad choice - actually it's the better choice. At this point does anyone think Lanning wouldn't go for it on 4th and 1 on his own ten yard line?

 

Oh, how the pendulum has swung.

 

It's taken 11 games for Lanning to prove without a doubt that he is the biggest gambler we ever have had as the coach of our Ducks.

Edited November 27, 2022 by DazeNconfused

[Flaps2]

I’ll take risk averse over this abomination of coaching from Dan Lanning. But the offense was fun.

[OregonDucks]

I hope that the Oregon AD does the right thing and holds off on giving Dan Lanning a big raise.
 

I hope the media grills him about his decisions.

Edited November 27, 2022 by OregonDucks
Expand

[kirklandduck]

It's ok to be aggressive. But you have to pick and choose your times to do it. DL is clearly still learning when the right times and wrong times are.

[Log Haulin]

First time head coach. But yea, he is going to get piled on for sure. Took a loss to Fusky and Beavus. Unacceptable!

[OregonDucks]

On 11/26/2022 at 4:28 PM, kirklandduck said:

It's ok to be aggressive. But you have to pick and choose your times to do it. DL is clearly still learning when the right times and wrong times are.

The problem is that he didn’t learn from the Washington game. 

[DazeNconfused]

On 11/26/2022 at 4:27 PM, OregonDucks said:

I hope that the Oregon AD does the right thing and holds off on paying Dan Lanning. 

This is a really good point! If I'm Lanning's agent and want to get him an extension - I'm having a hard time explaining the UW and OSU 4th down tries.

[Santa Rosa Duck]

If Coach Lanning had kicked a field goal in the first quarter, we would be celebrating right now.

Edited November 27, 2022 by Santa Rosa Duck

[Haywarduck]

Defense wins games, and defense loses games. Our defense was horrible! Special teams looked like an extension of our defense.

 

We are going to run the ball, with our back-up RB, try and stop us. 

Edited November 27, 2022 by Haywarduck

[Lrod]

I need to hear his postgame...

 

It seems we lost faith in what we do best.. why dont we use Noah or Bucky on goal line?  Like why?  Why couldn't we just hand it off on 4th and 1 on our 29 if you were so intent to go for it..  Bo keeping it there is definitely something a coach gonna tell the defense before that play. HE JUST DID IT ON UTAH. 

 

 

[DUCati855]

DLs gambles just made for a miserable week for most of us. All the closet Beaver fans will now let their voices be heard. Thanks coach Dan.

[1Ducker1]

Bo not being able to run has taken its toll on the O. The D has needed to improve all year.

[DazeNconfused]

On 11/26/2022 at 4:31 PM, Log Haulin said:

First time head coach. But yea, he is going to get piled on for sure. Took a loss to Fusky and Beavus. Unacceptable!

When everything was going wrong and his team was losing it's composure what did Lanning do? He got caught up in the emotions of the game like a rookie coach and made a poor decision to go for it on his own 29-yard line with a 3 point lead. 

 

Instead of punting the ball, regrouping his team and trying to settle them down as a leader would- he threw gas on the fire.

Edited November 27, 2022 by DazeNconfused

[DazeNconfused]

On 11/26/2022 at 4:34 PM, Haywarduck said:

Defense wins games, and defense loses games. Our defense was horrible!

 

We are going to run the ball, with our back-up RB, try and stop us. 

Lanning and Tosh bear some blame here. Bassa was terrible in the run game at LB. His run reads were slow - then the guard would get out into him and own him. The coaches never saw it and adjusted. I'd have been run blitzing into the gap on first down early in the 4th. 

 

Flowe made a bad play up 21 points. It was the first big run play that started the Beavers comeback. The play was heading to the sideline and the end was stringing it out. Flowe looked like he was trying to beat the RB to the edge (and that's not his job) and the RB cut it right back through the gap Flowe should have been it. Flowes job was to scrape and be there for when edge man turned the RB back. 

[DUCKS4OUUO]

Worst coached game in Duck history.

So do I still go to Vegas?

If so I guess I'll go play roulette and put all my money on 1 of the 2 greens on the wheel. All the money I was going to buy Pac 12 Champioship tickets with!

After all, that's what Lanning would do!

Yes I'm pissed!

[DUCKS4OUUO]

Don't get me wrong.  I still love Lanning, but his gambling cost us 2 very big games.

Bet on green in roullete, right Dan?

[John Austin]

On 11/26/2022 at 4:19 PM, DazeNconfused said:

Mario and his prevent offense was boring and kept us in tight games late that we should have already put away. Mario played the odds to be safe. 

 

Now we have Lanning's style of high risk decisions when the safe play is not a bad choice - actually it's the better choice. At this point does anyone think Lanning wouldn't go for it on 4th and 1 on his own ten yard line?

 

Oh, how the pendulum has swung.

 

It's taken 11 games for Lanning to prove without a doubt that he is the biggest gambler we ever have had as the coach of our Ducks.

He coaches like Brandon Staley and it's infuriating to watch. I don't care what the analytics say. The mental hit you take going for it on your own 25 and not making it is a HUGE downer to the players' psyche, especially when you have been getting run over. It's just like a turnover.

[12Duck72]

Unbelievable. Just Unbelievable at this point. I knew there would be rough spots but losing to both your rivals in this fashion is just plain unacceptable. This team quit when they got up 3 scores, no other way to put it. The keep going for it on 4th downs is all on Lanning. He still hasn't learned 

[jrw]

I'm less concerned about the gambles, which are few but important, than the continuous terrible no-good very-bad-all-day-long run defense.

 

Against a team that wasn't going to pass, ever.

Edited November 27, 2022 by jrw

[EzDucksIt]

Building reliable depth for QB, Defense, OL, will be so important to this team.  I am happy where the team is heading, hoping they get the schemes better planned.  Bend but don't Stop has got to change.  Wild regular season and happy that we have a Young Coach whom I hope will grow and learn from ALL of this Mayhem in the Pac-12 and will grow to be a great coach.  GO DUCKS.

[OceaniaDuck]

Really disappointing. If we had just taken FG's when the opportunities presented themselves instead of gambling on 4th down, we'd more likely would have escaped with a victory. And we were playing at the Beavers home field so that possibly could have been a factor in their comeback.

 

Just to put a little perspective, DL's first year record as a HC is actually not bad. Even Pete Carroll, Nick Saban and Kirby Smart didn't win 9 regular-season games in their 1st seasons as HC at USC 'Bama and Georgia respectively. All eventually turned out to be just fine lol.

 

I guess what makes the losses sting nonetheless are 2 of the games we lost were actually very winnable, but due in large part to poor decisions, we lost and to our two biggest arch-rivals. Nobody thought the Ducks had a realistic chance of beating Georgia, so that loss was expected - although at the same time we shouldn't have lost by as large a margin as we did.

 

I'm sure DL will learn from this season and next season will hopefully go even better than this one. On to the Holiday Bowl I guess. Go Ducks!

[nw777b]

I don't put the loss all on the coaches.  The players still have to make the plays.

 

This was a team melt down. 

[The Kamikaze Kid]

The desperate gambles today and against UW have a common theme. The wheels had fallen off the defenses cart. They couldn't stop anything. Against that back drop, the gambles are understandable but both times the play was a run by a gimpy QB. I'd rather put those gambles in either Bucky or Noah's hands and live with the results.

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

Just for perspective. The Ducks won the offensive yardage by150 and were +3 in turnovers. One has to work really hard to lose a game like that.

[jrw]

On 11/26/2022 at 5:21 PM, The Kamikaze Kid said:

The desperate gambles today and against UW have a common theme. The wheels had fallen off the defenses cart. They couldn't stop anything. Against that back drop, the gambles are understandable but both times the play was a run by a gimpy QB. I'd rather put those gambles in either Bucky or Noah's hands and live with the results.

Amen to that. Lanning had to gamble, but maybe he should played a different card.

[SmithRiverDuck]

The gambles are forgivable. The ABSOLUTELY LAME play calls for those gambles are not. The putrid defense could be overcome. The bad coaching could be overcome. The bad offensive play calls could be overcome. But not the combination.

 

I thought that Dillingham proved he is not ready today.

[AnotherOD]

On 11/26/2022 at 5:56 PM, SmithRiverDuck said:

The gambles are forgivable. The ABSOLUTELY LAME play calls for those gambles are not.

Have to agree. If you feel comfortable going for it, I fell you should be comfortable with at least a half dozen play calls -- and not just rely on the safest most obvious play call -- that the opponent usually is selling out to stop.

 

Also, all go-for-it situations are not the same. Read the room.

 

Your OL is getting knocked back, you are having trouble consistently running between the tackles, your QB is injured and can't run; and, momentum has completely swung...

 

Might not be the same as doing it when your OL is firing, you are running the ball consistently, you have a real QB threat on QB reads, and momentum is at least even if not on your side 

 

Part of me thinks this is youth and inexperience showing and another part of me says it is just something a good coach understands (and isn't something that takes years to learn). It just happened in a key spot with a poor outcome, no?

 

 

[nw777b]

On 11/26/2022 at 5:56 PM, SmithRiverDuck said:

 

I thought that Dillingham proved he is not ready today.

Makes me wonder how many games his head was at ASU. 

[PittDuck]

It appeared to me that JS and the Beavers just wanted it more.  Their offense out played our offense in the end.

 

The Ducks may have won the middle 8, but the Beavers took it to us in the last 12.

 

I am bummed, but not blaming it on the coaches, the defense, special teams, or offense.  As much as it was a team loss, it was a team win for the Beavs.

 

For me, losing to the dawgs and the beavers by 3 points each was sickening, and getting blown out by the DAWGS was hard to take, but I am not ready to call for new coaches

 

I think DL got schooled this year, by KS, KdB, and JS.  But, at the end of the season, I can live with 9-3 and a Bowl game in his first year.

[47sgs]

What an embarrassing game that was watched on national tv.  Reminds me when Vernon Adams got hurt in a bowl game and we lost after leading by 30 at halftime.  Combining that with Dillingham leaving, it will be interesting to see which recruits stick with their verbal commitment.  It was a sad day for OBD

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

FYI. MC’s coaching isn’t doing him any favors. He’s down 28-0 at the half.

[McDuck]

On 11/26/2022 at 6:45 PM, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

FYI. MC’s coaching isn’t doing him any favors. He’s down 28-0 at the half.

And at one point they turned it over on downs on the Pitt eleven yard line.

[lownslowav8r]

Taking gambles with a healthy offense is one thing but with line and QB playing at 50%…gotta change your approach. Oregon had every chance to win but couldn’t punch it in at the end. Just terrible. Defensive coaches need to go. 

[CalBear95]

The takes of DL being a crazy gambler are just flat wrong.  I could go around and around on this but the TL;DR is this: the math supports DL.

 

If he punts when you want him to and they lose you would not blame him because, well, punting is what people are supposed to do and it was the right play.  What you aren't seeing, however, the punt is actually riskier but because it's often distanced from the consequences you don't make the association. 

 

DL is taking the correct risks.  I encourage you all to adjust the way you think about the game and explore how analytics works and what it says about how to think about the game and how to play certain situations.  I sure hope boosters and any other people in positions of power try to put pressure on DL to play conventional ball because it will be value destructive to do so.

 

The Ducks problems were in the play calling and the D collapsing.  It isn't in the situational risks DL is taking.

[CalBear95]

Watching the SC game.  3 and change left, up by 10, 4th and 2.  Goes for it which is the correct call because another set of downs drives your win % way up and a TD absolutely closes the door.

 

Two of the four outcomes pretty much end the game.  One pretty much assures no worse than OT.  The other perhaps a loss.

 

I would bet most here would think FG because no worse than OT.  But if your goal is to win the game the decision is incorrect.  Going for it has the biggest chance of winning the game right then and there.

Edited November 27, 2022 by CalBear95

[Log Haulin]

On 11/26/2022 at 7:38 PM, CalBear95 said:

The takes of DL being a crazy gambler are just flat wrong.  I could go around and around on this but the TL;DR is this: the math supports DL.

 

If he punts when you want him to and they lose you would not blame him because, well, punting is what people are supposed to do and it was the right play.  What you aren't seeing, however, the punt is actually riskier but because it's often distanced from the consequences you don't make the association. 

 

DL is taking the correct risks.  I encourage you all to adjust the way you think about the game and explore how analytics works and what it says about how to think about the game and how to play certain situations.  I sure hope boosters and any other people in positions of power try to put pressure on DL to play conventional ball because it will be value destructive to do so.

 

The Ducks problems were in the play calling and the D collapsing.  It isn't in the situational risks DL is taking.

Analytics might support Lanning's decision-making. What Analytics fails to factor is the human side: pressure, momentum, energy levels and the like.

 

Also, defense was horrible. A lot of time on the clock when he went on 4th from 29 yard line. I don't know if punting there would have changed the outcome.

[CalBear95]

@Log Haulin Given what DL was seeing from his defense would you have punted back to OSU?

 

I think what people aren't grasping here is that the quality of the Ducks' D means DL has to assume he can't count on his D to get him the ball back w/out the other side scoring.  If he had a lockdown D and punted from the 29, the math would very likely support that (or it might be a close call).  But he doesn't.  Yeah, that's on him but his decision making is correct

[Log Haulin]

On 11/26/2022 at 8:17 PM, CalBear95 said:

@Log Haulin Given what DL was seeing from his defense would you have punted back to OSU?

 

I think what people aren't grasping here is that the quality of the Ducks' D means DL has to assume he can't count on his D to get him the ball back w/out the other side scoring.  If he had a lockdown D and punted from the 29, the math would very likely support that (or it might be a close call).  But he doesn't.  Yeah, that's on him but his decision making is correct

Thats what I am saying. I am not so sure punting there changes anything. I would have probably gone for it too.

 

I don't fault Lanning's decision. 

[Charles Fischer]

On 11/26/2022 at 8:17 PM, CalBear95 said:

Yeah, that's on him but his decision making is correct

That is your opinion.  Let's not tell others what to think or feel.  Analytics are not always the right thing to do, and I have coaches on speed-dial that would tell you that.

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[The Kamikaze Kid]

Against UW, Lanning had just watched his D let them go over 70 yards in three plays including a 62 yard td. The Beavs had just gone over 80 yards for a TD in under two minutes without throwing a pass. Lanning must be losing his mind about how bad the D has played in both games with everything on the line. I think this is the biggest factor in both 4th down gambles.

 

As the team shifts into prepping for next year, I think we'll see the real Coach Lanning emerge. I'd like to see what he prioritizes in the portal and what coaching changes happen. Maybe that burning sting of being humiliated by the Beavs is what drives him to put his stamp on this team and get that D fixed ASAP.

[webfootfan]

My problem is that this was a lesson that he was supposed to have learned from the Husky game.  2 losses directly attributable to terrible decision making- today's was worse than the last time.  Going for it on our own 29 yr line against the league's best rush defense and our QB legs not functioning ????    Is this arrogance or just inexperience ?  but how many games does it take to lose to understand there is a time and a place for going for it on 4th down? 

[Charles Fischer]

On 11/26/2022 at 9:54 PM, webfootfan said:

My problem is that this was a lesson that he was supposed to have learned from the Husky game.

It is very disconcerting.  I was frustrated with Mario, because it appeared that he would not learn the first time from an error.  Now Lanning is the same?